2020 US/Iranian Crisis

[TopHatter]

Well, I got it all wrong. I'd assumed he was fleeing Iraq. According to this infographic though, he'd just arrived

Just arrived? Then this was what we'd call "the welcome wagon" :-D

[Ironduke]

Certainly having the Quds force leader deep inside Iraq was a massive provocation.

Soleimani has been to Iraq on probably over 100 occasions, and spent considerable amounts of time in-country. Even when we were there from 2003-2011.

[snapper]

Word here is that Sulaimani was on his way to do worse against the US Embassy in Bagdhad. He was a nasty piece of work (a criminal originally) and may he rot in hell for the many murders he is responsible for. I doubt many Syrians will shed a tear for him. Certainly from a moral point of view it was right; he was a criminal.

That does not mean it was wise or the correct action to take at this time. It launches us into the unknown.

What I do not like is that it this action while claiming "we want de-escalation" sets the US - and you guys are likely to be alone on this one I should warn your Orange Fool having done his best to ruin all European alliances - on the back foot. You now have to wait - everywhere - for a response which will surely come but cannot yet say with certainty where. It may have been wiser to launch air strikes on their nuclear facilities as a 'warning' instead of creating a national martyr - no matter that he certainly deserved it. Sometimes what is right is not the best thing to do in the circumstances.

Certainly it was mishandled; the Iraqi authorities were not informed at all. Sure the Pakistani's were not informed about Osama either but now you have transgressed the jurisdiction of a country that a few weeks ago was protesting about Iranian involvement in their country. They are likely to feel aggrieved at this and it would not surprise me if this backfired and the Iraqi's and their Iranian supported militias in Iraq were prepared to attempt to force the US military entirely out of Iraq. Nor does this action now take into account the continuing anti regimes in Iran which will most likely be set back by this assassination.

I would also note that there are currently more US military in the region (3000 more sent) than there were when Trumpkin became president.

Nor do I personally discount Trumpkin's political motives - in the quotes in which he predicted Obama would start a war with Iran "to get re-elected" he is merely saying what he would do. He is that see-through I fear. Well now he has done it and you must wait for the Iranian response. They too have to 'look tough' and will require something similarly 'spectacular' in response.

But who knows? In a couple of weeks Trumpkin will probably be sending and receiving 'love letters' with the Ayatollah. I am just grateful the whole mess is nothing to do me or us. Your President has made your bed - many of your countrymen but not him - will sleep in it.

[TopHatter]

Word here is that Sulaimani ... {snip} Your President has made your bed - many of your countrymen but not him - will sleep in it.

I believe that you're correct on all counts. This animal deserved to be blown to bits, but thanks to Trump's infantile understanding of, well, just about everything, this could very well turn out to be a shit sandwich.

The very best hope as I mentioned before is that the sandwich is confined to Iraq.

[statquo]

What’s the most likely response from Iran? Does anyone want to give their predictions and see if its right or close to being right when whatever happens happens?

[kato]

In German and French political commentary the attack is largely treated as a unilateral declaration of war by the US on Iran following several years of increasing "pressure" on the US side that has been hitting Iranian "resistance". It is considered to be a US strike against European mediation attempts, effectively denounced as a violation of international law, and is projected to result in both a proxy war within Iraq against foreign occupying forces as well as direct retaliatory strikes on other US assets in the wider theater.

[Parihaka]

Just arrived? Then this was what we'd call "the welcome wagon" :-D

And now unconfirmed reports that they just hit Shbl al-Zaidi, in Taji

[TopHatter]

What’s the most likely response from Iran? Does anyone want to give their predictions and see if its right or close to being right when whatever happens happens?

I've just read that Iran's typical response is to vow violent revenge....buuuuuuut...at a time and place of their own choosing. Which never actually comes.

For this particular event.... Only time will tell

[TopHatter]

And now unconfirmed reports that they just hit Shbl al-Zaidi, in Taji

"Secretary-General" of the Kata'ib al-Imam Ali militias.

This is starting to sound like a Michael Corleone moment...I wonder if someone else is next.

[Dazed]

Well we definitely got a short term gain. However, we tend not to be so good at seeing what the long term will be.

Iran is embedded throughout the region. We want to get out of the region.

I am very sure the Iranian leaders have long term plans and goals already formulated. Trump is an in the moment guy and has never been known for any kind of long term vision outside of self-promotion.

Will this deter Iran in any way? If I had to put $100 down I would have to lay it on red for no. I know I wouldn't want to be an American, any American, in the region now.

Laws of unintended consequences now comes into play with all the twists and turns.

Kind of reminds me of Vietnam. The conflict was in the backyard of Ho and Giap and there was no way they were giving up. Here, this is in Iran's backyard, and I see them just as stubborn.

The article is over 6 years old but still very timely.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...adow-commander

The large protest in Iraq that dwarfed the recent protest outside of the US embassy were in part protesting Iran and her allies in Iraq.

Muqtada al-Sadr while no fan of the US has criticized Iran’s influence in Iraq and wants all foreign parties out.

29 November 2019 Iran backed Iraq Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi al-Muntafiki resigned due to protest and open unrest.

Yes Iran has an out sized influence on Iraq and the region but their economy is shrinking and they are hemorrhaging blood and treasure in places like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

They attacked Saudi Arabia and numerous attacks on US forces and interests. It's not like they have been restrained for all that time.

[snapper]

What’s the most likely response from Iran? Does anyone want to give their predictions and see if its right or close to being right when whatever happens happens?

Mine the Gulf is a first. US targets in Iraq second to force the US out.

[TopHatter]

Mine the Gulf is a first. US targets in Iraq second to force the US out.

The last time they mined the Gulf, they paid a stiff penalty for it.

[Officer of Engineers]

Let's get some perspective here. Iran WILL LIMIT her retalliation. She WILL NOT DARE to go to war against the US. She will most likely inflict casualties but the numbers will be in the low tens. If she even try a Riyadh Compound, it will be war. Tehran knows it. Not only will Trump promise it, the American People will demand it. American restraint since 11 Sept is long gone. The thing Tehran CANNOT afford is to piss off the American people.

I have absolutely no doubt the Iranians will retalliate but they are not as foolish as to piss off the American People.

[rj1]

Trying to think about this on a broader scale. Saudis and everywhere else Quds meddled in the Middle East they probably are in favor of this guy being dead. I know what Russia has said publicly but considering the president is parroting the Russian line on Ukraine which they care about way more than Iran, are they really going to do anything other than jawbone? Meanwhile the Turks were allowed by the withdrawal from Syria to move into northern Syria and are the government in some areas now.

I mean, what can the Iranians do? Attack Americans and American infrastructure? They were doing that anyway. Meanwhile we've neutralized most of the regional partners that aren't Iranian vassals or their militias or sleeper cells and would potentially give material support to the Iranians.

I know everyone thinks this is the Trump operation and Trump is an idiot, I do too mostly, but watching news last night either CNN or MSNBC said SECDEF Mark Esper spent quite a few days at Mar-a-Lago with Trump before returning to Washington. I'm pretty confident the Defense Department with help from the CIA and NSA did a lot of the heavy lifting on the decision to do this.

[Double Edge]

watching news last night either CNN or MSNBC said SECDEF Mark Esper spent quite a few days at Mar-a-Lago with Trump before returning to Washington. I'm pretty confident the Defense Department with help from the CIA and NSA did a lot of the heavy lifting on the decision to do this.

Right, and the question is why did they do it now as opposed to earlier.

If he was responsible for several hundred deaths during the Iraq war. They knew he was behind it and let him be.

The Obama era i suppose puts a freeze on any such operation. That takes us up to 2016.

Trump takes a year to dump the Iran deal. Another year goes by

Not acting before this point had its utility, Quds would have been useful against ISIS.

You could argue had they been more determined then there would have been no caliphate to go after.

So we're in 2018 and the question of what to do with him, given his reach and influence in the region.