2020 US/Iranian Crisis

[Double Edge]

Already talking about off ramp, heh, that was quick.

Esper: Iran Has 'Big Off Ramp' to Avoid Further Conflict | DOD News | Jan 07 2019

"There is a big off ramp sitting in front of Tehran right now," Esper said. "That is to de-escalate, to message us that they want to sit down and talk — without precondition, by the way — to the U.S. about a better way forward, about a way forward which would constitute a new mode of behavior by Iran where they behave more like a normal country."

[Double Edge]

Couple of random curious events

Iran plane crash: Ukraine International Airline jet crashes killing 176 | BBC | Jan 08 2020

Magnitude 4.5 earthquake hits near Iran's only nuclear plant | Al Araby | Jan 08 2020

given they had one over a year back i'm figuring this is natural. Odd place to have a nuclear reactor. It's a known issue

[anil]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

Iran will not give the black box of the crashed Ukrainian airliner to planemaker Boeing, the head of Tehran's civil aviation organization was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Ali Abedzadeh also said it was not clear which country Iran would send the box to so that its data could be analyzed, semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

[Double Edge]

Chat i'm listening to speculates the pilots panicked when they heard about the missile attacks, skipped checks before taking off and this is the result (!)

Another possibility is friendly fire in a time of heightened sensitivity : (

Not a missile, maybe artillery

I'm relieved to hear when he says blocking the straits won't cause much delay. Two days to less than a week as its easy to pick out speedboats from slow moving tankers from the air.

He raises an interesting point. Why does Iran to this day still persist with a ballistic missile program that is only effective to deliver a nuclear warhead. Ballistic missiles have no accuracy to be useful with conventional warheads. Iran has no nukes.

His summary of JCPOA is terror freedom in exchange for nuclear restrictions. And those restrictions expire in half a decade. No wonder the neighbours were livid. So on balance Trump did the right thing. Hmm....given my previous stance on this subject.

I wonder if they were deliberately trying to miss, or at least keep the impact points confined to open areas without any actual manned infrastructure.

One explanation given is the Iranians were desperate for a face saving measure.

Using ballistic missiles was an entirely reckless move as it could have caused massive casualties if it hit the bunker they were in which is a big if given the lousy accuracy. But still...

If the Iranians wanted to miss they would have used cruise missiles as accuracy is much better than ballistic missiles. Demonstration attack.

Your guys lucked out : )

Missile attack on Iran's part was impetuous

There are NO Iranian street protests. Most likely because Tehran does not trust such protests will not turn out to be a full blown uprising given what happened during 2019 protests. It is extemely TELLING that Tehran does NOT trust her own people in protesting this attack.

Over the last few days i've been reading Rouhani called a fake moderate and wondered why. Since 2016 there have been protests by the rural poor in various parts of the country. These people were the ones that put Khomeni in office. So when they protest over living conditions its scary for the regime. And it is scary because they are against the ruling regime with no preference for any particular leader.

Turns out Rouhani, Mousavi & Khatami all voted to suppress these protests in the manner Iran does it. Which is brutal crackdowns with no concern over loss of life.

These three celebrated moderates are no better than a loyal king's opposition. Not very different from hardliners.

[Monash]

So the big question is 'what next'? Sanctions to the max on Iran (and anyone who does serious business with them after these additional sanctions are imposed) or direct military action? As a side issue I then thought of the following:

Question for WAB experts re; sea mining. Would geography in Gulf allow the US to sea mine Iran's oil terminals for instance. Not knowing the technical specs of modern mines would it be possible for the US to 'seed' the approaches to the two? major Iranian oil terminals in the Gulf with mines on timers?

The scenario being that the the US could then announce a time limit for foreign oil tankers to leave Iranian ports after which said mines become active. Is it possible to then program these mines to self detonate over specified time range so that the US could theoretically impose a time frame for this blockade with mines self detonating at per-determined intervals?

P.S Sorry my knowledge of the subject in question is next to zero.

[kato]

Odd place to have a nuclear reactor.

The site was selected by the Shah in 1975, when seismic analysis technology wasn't able to discover the particular underground difficulties of the area. Was arguably also part of an economic stimulus package for the region started in the 60s.

[Officer of Engineers]

Planet Labs Photos of al Asad Air Base in Iraq

[Officer of Engineers]

The train of thought currently is that Iran deliberately tried to avoid casualties. There are more casualty-rich targets but they chosed two targets in the middle of nowhere and the use of SSMs instead of GLCMs would ensure early detection and thus enough warning for the US to take precautions.

I don't know if the Iranians were deliberately trying to miss but they were trying to be deliberately inaccurate in their strikes. 22 missiles were launched and if the photos above represent the damage, it was less than an impressive display of firepower.

RE: sea mines. American Naval Sea Mining tactics reflect immediate engagements rather than traps. They are to be used to drive enemy vessels into a KZ or the enemy vessels dies over a mine. They're not meant to prevent transit though the Americans did do so in the past in Central America.

[TopHatter]

Iran believed to have deliberately missed U.S. forces in Iraq strikes: sources

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iran is believed to have deliberately avoided U.S. military casualties during retaliatory missile strikes on bases housing American troops in Iraq, following the U.S. killing of an Iranian general, according to U.S. and European government sources familiar with intelligence assessments.

The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Wednesday the Iranians were thought to have targeted the attacks to miss U.S. forces to prevent the crisis from escalating out of control while still signaling Iranian resolve in response to the U.S. killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq last week.

A source in Washington said overnight that early indications were that there were no U.S. casualties following the strikes on the al-Asad air base and another facility in Erbil. Other U.S. officials declined comment.

Iran was believed to have tried to hit certain parts of the bases to minimize casualties and especially to avoid U.S. fatalities, three sources said. This assessment included some intelligence from inside Iran confirming the nature of the attack plan, they said.

“They wanted to respond but almost certainly not to escalate,” one of the U.S. sources said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Tehran took "proportionate measures" in self-defense and did not seek war with the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who ordered the drone strike that killed Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday, gave an initial response to the Iranian missile attacks, saying on Twitter: "All is well!"
___________

If this is Iran's "James Barron during the Chesapeake–Leopard affair" moment, and they do indeed stand down, then I'll breathe a huge sigh of relief. The absolute last thing we need is a full-blown shooting war in the Middle East, Fox News chickenhawks not withstanding.

[TopHatter]

Unless more strikes materialise in the future i'm thinking this was for domestic consumption. Quick response to keep the people quiet.

For the moment at least, it appears to be that way. Hopefully that's exactly what it is.

[TopHatter]

The scenario being that the the US could then announce a time limit for foreign oil tankers to leave Iranian ports after which said mines become active. Is it possible to then program these mines to self detonate over specified time range so that the US could theoretically impose a time frame for this blockade with mines self detonating at per-determined intervals?

P.S Sorry my knowledge of the subject in question is next to zero.

Modern naval mines are capable of exactly what you've described. Here's a list of capabilities of the British Stonefish mine, for example:

The computerised exploder in a Stonefish mine is microprocessor-based. It features acoustic, magnetic and water pressure displacement target detection sensors. The DSP circuitry includes such features as the ability to set thresholds regarding the signal strength and adjust sterilisation delay times (how long before the mine renders itself inoperative). A portable electronic presetting kit can be used to reprogram the mine (e.g. uploading a new library of acoustic target signatures or increasing the arming delay from one hour to 10 days) before the mine is deployed. Stonefish incorporates arming delays, ship counting and self-sterilisation features which can be configured by the user.~ From Wikipedia

[Double Edge]

Another off ramp

Remarks by President Trump on Iran | WH | Jan 08 2019

Finally, to the people and leaders of Iran: We want you to have a future and a great future — one that you deserve, one of prosperity at home, and harmony with the nations of the world. The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.

In response he is adding more sanctions.

As we continue to evaluate options in response to Iranian aggression, the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. These powerful sanctions will remain until Iran changes its behavior.

[Double Edge]

A U.S. official confirms to ABC News that ballistic missiles have been fired from inside Iran at multiple U.S. military facilities inside Iraq on Wednesday morning, local time. The facilities include Erbil in northern Iraq and Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq, the official said.

A Defense Department statement said they are still working on initial damage assessments.

The train of thought currently is that Iran deliberately tried to avoid casualties. There are more casualty-rich targets but they chosed two targets in the middle of nowhere and the use of SSMs instead of GLCMs would ensure early detection and thus enough warning for the US to take precautions.

They were not Ballistic missiles as previously reported. This might explain the accuracy ?

[m a x]

So, Iranians have proved to be higher than many had expected. They informed to evacuate and there is no more what to be paid from Iraqis to Americans to leave the country, as the Air-base, Trump claimed investments in, is broken. Besides, no one doubts Iran's striking power any longer, regardless of whether they want to hit or deliberately miss targets

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1213999171130314752

[kato]

The train of thought currently is that Iran deliberately tried to avoid casualties. There are more casualty-rich targets but they chosed two targets in the middle of nowhere and the use of SSMs instead of GLCMs would ensure early detection and thus enough warning for the US to take precautions.

The Iraqi prime minister has twittered (in Arabic) a quite lengthy statement from the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Military that Iranian officials called them to inform of incoming missile strikes without naming targets. The Iraqi Military got on the line with US Forces, who apparently promptly told them that they had just detected launches. Given short flight times from the border the ahead warning would have been around 3-5 minutes.