Iran Election June 09

[gabriel]

No. When you are in prison you cannot run for an election. At least in the Spanish legal system.

Same here. But most of them can vote and thus elect and remove governments.

[Castellano]

Same here. But most of them can vote and thus elect and remove governments.

An argument in favor of open societies.

Well understood that a set of formal freedoms doesn't mean you are free. Even in the best society one has to fight for freedom every damn day. But at least you don't waste the fight against a black-robed clown or some other ridiculously oppressive figure.

[Bigfella]

Err...You think you'll get away with that comment because we'll never be totally sure who really won at this election?

No, I think I'll get away with it because it is now clearer than ever that Iran is not a democracy. If you still don't see that then I have overestimated you.

They still have a different history. Its not because they are muslims that your comparison is any relevant.

I simply chose two useful examples of non-western nations that meet the definition of 'free'. Their past is irrelevant to that definition.

This is rethoric for domestic consumption, Chavez does the same, Ahmadinedjad strucks something different which is extremely touchy with Israel that is the Holocaust. As for terrorism such Western allies as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia do/did the same.

Here's a tip for you sparky, I'm not Israeli and holocaust denial is pretty damn touchy for me. I don't care who the audience is or why. When the person doing it has the title 'President' and hosts a conference of likeminded cretins I assume a) he means it; and b) he is not qualified to stand for the local school board.

Try to stay on topic Oscar, pulling in SA or Pakistan is yet another muddying exercise.

I am too. The difference is that I still believe that reforms can be carried out inside the current structure. The Islamic Republic is perfectible, just make the comparison with Saudi Arabia.

Nice to finally have you on board, sort of. You are right, we do differ. I don't believe Iran can be free under a system where power ultimately rests in the hands of a few clerics. Still, given that you believe that the system as it stands is a democracy I have no doubt that you do.

My strike record tells me you're wrong and your little sneering doesn't help prove your point.

Your strike rate on Iran sucks Oscar, and all the muddying & tapdancing in the world won't change that. You are right, the sneering doesn't prove my point, simple observation of events is doing just fine.

[Bigfella]

I think you are wrong. I think there is a real possibility the regime can fall.

Also: Freedom has no measure.

Ok, Ok....if you want me to get realistic, I'll say this is no Tienanmen and no China, there is a chance here as you acknowledge.

And in any case, never forget the regime is the violence by definition, that much should be clear even for radical multicultis. Otherwise we would be the cause of helpless laughter among the ayatollahs. ("They fell for it? But it's too easy!")

But yes, the "west" should just make clear where it stands without being emphatic, I think Iranian people are quite aware of what they are going through.


Bottom line is I think this will end with a military dictatorship or with some kind of wonderful democracy.

I fervently hope is a free Iran and that it doesn't take a civil war to decide it.

Castellano,

Most of this makes no sense to me (the bits in italics). I'm not really sure what you were trying to say, but it didn't come out in a coherent manner.

As for the rest, I think we are hoping for roughly the same thing but disagree on how likely it is. I hope you are correct, but I seriously doubt you are.

[Lunatock]

This picture is published in BBC shows who is actually destroying/vandalizing private and public properties to give a bad name to opposition.
I wonder if this ancient trick still works or not.

With the world still able to watch, despite the attempted media and communication blackout?

?BBC ??????? - ??????? - ??????: ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??????

[Castellano]

Castellano,

Most of this makes no sense to me (the bits in italics). I'm not really sure what you were trying to say, but it didn't come out in a coherent manner.

As for the rest, I think we are hoping for roughly the same thing but disagree on how likely it is. I hope you are correct, but I seriously doubt you are.

Bigfella;

At last you engage me in a conversation, you elaborate a reasoned argument, and I babble a bunch of incoherent stuff as a reply.

I just meant to say that I think something has broken irreparably for the regime; and for that reason I see either a military dictatorship or some kind of real democracy coming out this. I don’t see half measures.

Anyway, mine is a very uninformed opinion.

[Merlin]

It is no empty threat, as you will see if the protestors continue to march en masse....

Of course, with no doubt, the Revolutionary Guard can militarily crush the protesters. They have been fighting the large Iraq army fiercely in the 1980s. As I said they are now not fighting an enemy army from another country.

It would now be a political suicide for the Supreme Leader's ruling elite if too many of their own protesting citizens are violently killed in front of the broadcasting mobile phone cameras.

I think they realize this. Over so many days of bloody protests, the number of people killed is kept low, officially at about 17.

The Ayatollah Rafsanjani controled council (of hand forgot the name) has the power to remove the Supreme Leader.

We are talking about present day Iran with a high proportion of educated middle class. Myanmar a few years ago, and China in Mao's time are different. Parallel cannot and should not be drawn.

[zraver]

The Ayatollah Rafsanjani controled council (of hand forgot the name) has the power to remove the Supreme Leader.

To paraphrase Stalin and Andrew Jackson

How many troops does the Council of Experts have? And let the Council enforce that decision themselves. I've been predicting a coup by the guards for some time. What I failed to account for what Khamenei siding with the guards due to a rivalry with Rafasajani and Montezeri.

[geurtjalink]

how honest election can bee? forget it !

[Bigfella]

Bigfella;

At last you engage me in a conversation, you elaborate a reasoned argument, and I babble a bunch of incoherent stuff as a reply.

Happens to the best of us. Think nothing of it.:)

I just meant to say that I think something has broken irreparably for the regime; and for that reason I see either a military dictatorship or some kind of real democracy coming out this. I don’t see half measures.

Anyway, mine is a very uninformed opinion.

Truth is I don't think any of us really know what is happening, we just stumble onto the occasional insight more or less by accident.

I agree that something is broken here and I agree that some sort of military dictatorship is one possible outcome - A-jad, Khamenei & the Revolutionary guards (and perhaps the army) taking power with such hangers on as they have.

Where we disagree is the other possibility. If Khamenei & A-jad fail I suspect the power brokers in the short term will be other clerics. They won't be looking for a genuine democracy, they will be looking at a way to keep the other side at bay without starting a war. My bet is that for the moment they will stick with something that looks like the existing structure, but where the vote actually means something (as opposed to now, where it effectively means nothing). I can definately see this sort of model evolving into a genuine democracy in time, but it won't start that way.

I think the Islamic Republic still has too large a genuine costituency to risk junking it, and I suspect that enough of the demonstrators will be content with new & fair elections and more freedom. At this stage (and we don't yet know if we are nearer the beginning or end of this) I'm not sure the constituency for a complete overthrow is big enough or powerful enough to do it.

Anyway, we are all just guessing here.

[Guest]

It is amazing what is happening in Iran. I hope the underdogs overcome the regime. Then it will validate the power of new technology and power of the internet to overcome an antiquated system of government.

[pmuklherjee]

Let Iran be

The polls were rigged, no doubt of that. That, however gives no excuse to USA and UK to interfere in Iran. The fact that Ahmadinejad does not fawn over the west and in fact hates the west is no excuse for western governments to try and have him overthrown. Just let Iran be. Iranians will find a way out of the mess sooner or later without American or British help.

[Merlin]

Neda has become the icon of protesters. It is expected that the regime would ban the memorials to her. I think the protesters will still defiantly proceed with these memorials.

Iran bans memorials for 'Angel of Freedom'

Iran's regime has banned memorials for a young woman whose death has become the focal point of protests against the clerical regime.

22 June [Telegraph] Neda Agha Soltan, 27, was named the Angel of Freedom after a video appearing to show her being shot by a government sniper was posted on the internet.

The graphic scenes show Neda – her name means "the call" – walking with her father among demonstrators before she is seen lying on the ground covered in blood as attempts are made to save her life.

The video, which was posted online on Saturday and has been view hundreds of thousands of times, appears to shows blood pouring from the nose and mouth of Neda as she lies on a street in Tehran.

Bystanders desperately tend to the woman who wears jeans, a black jacket and an Islamic headscarf. Her eyes seem to be rolled back as blood spreads across her face. People around her scream and a white haired man desperately tells her: "Don't be afraid! Don't be afraid!"

Online posters of the woman have emerged, including one modelled on a prominent image of Barack Obama during the US presidential campaign.

There has been speculation that the image will come to symbolise the protest in the same way as that of the unnamed man standing in front of a tank in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the summary execution of a Vietnamese Communist prisoner by Colonel Nugyen Ngoc Loan in 1968. ...

[Bigfella]

The polls were rigged, no doubt of that. That, however gives no excuse to USA and UK to interfere in Iran. The fact that Ahmadinejad does not fawn over the west and in fact hates the west is no excuse for western governments to try and have him overthrown. Just let Iran be. Iranians will find a way out of the mess sooner or later without American or British help.

I must have missed something here, but I thought nothing was basically what Britain & the UK were doing. In fact, Obama has been criticized by some in the US for doing too little.

[Ratus Ratus]

Well after reading all of this ever growing thread I now know that the whole thing was a western set up. :))
The following are from “The peoples daily”.. Highly reliable source
BBC correspondent in Iran expelled: Fars
June 22, 2009
Link: BBC correspondent in Iran expelled: Fars - People's Daily Online
Extract:
“Iran's satellite channel Press TV reported earlier Sunday that Iran has accused Voice of America (VOA) and the BBC of stirring up unrest in the country amid a dispute over the recent presidential election.

The two news outlets sought to stir up ethnic discord across Iran in the hope of fomenting the country's disintegration, Press TV quoted Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi as saying on Saturday.”

Iran arrests 5 European spies
Link: Iran arrests 5 European spies - People's Daily Online
Extract:
“Iran's security forces have arrested five European spies, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Monday.

Iranian security forces identified and arrested five European spies during the Saturday unrest in Tehran, the report said.

"According to the dispatched reports, two German, one British and two French spies have been arrested during the unrest in Tehran on Saturday," Fars said without elaborating the details.”

Iran: armed vandals shoot people in Tehran's violence
Link: Iran: armed vandals shoot people in Tehran's violence - People's Daily Online
"Tehran's prosecutor general's office said on Monday that some armed vandals opened fire on civilians and killed people in Saturday's violence in Tehran, local English-language Press TV reported.

"A number of Tehrani citizens were shot dead by unknown vandals Saturday night," the office was quoted as saying.

Security forces have arrested an armed man involved in Saturday's riots, the office said, adding that security and intelligence officials are currently probing into the identity of the individual whose photo was published and broadcast by news agencies."



end of humour..
But seriously how do the people in Iran actually swallow all this?
Or is this a simple case of expelling western press so they don’t report the truth. Also is it a simple case of add enough fact to your fiction and make it big enough often enough everyone might just swallow it hook line and sinker.

What is my take: Well I do think Obama has approach the whole thing correctly. Though there may have been too much western media hype hoping that Mousavi would win. That was sort of handing Ahmadinejad the vote as he did use it against his opposition.

Where the protest goes is going to be heavily dependent on its leadership, which at present is somewhat non existent as far as linking everything together. Though I have a suspicion there was no real leadership from the start.
Lack of leadership will just allow the current regime to squash this whole thing.
The outcome will not be useful for any friendly moves for Obama, though it will also leave a shaken and weakened cleric control government in Tehran. It may has strengthened the role of Ahmadinejad and that of the Revolutionary Guard and the status if the Basij.