Iran Election June 09

[JAD_333]

JAD,



i think the biggest question now is, what part of government? what i am not yet clear about is the influence of the IGRC-- have they turned into a seperate power pole from the clerics, or are they still under the clerics' control?

My impression is that they are a quasi-business-military org, with emphasis on the latter, and that they are charged with protecting Islam--aka the state control by the clergy.

[Skywatcher]

They're sort of like the Waffen SS and Iraqi Republican Guard for the ayatollahs, in that they're theoretically an ideologically oriented enforcer corps/private conventional army as opposed to the more professional, traditional armed forces.

[Dreadnought]

In a statement according to Iran's state-run news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said "the guardians of the Islamic revolution and the courageous Basiji together with the security forces following the orders of the supreme leader and following him unquestioningly, are determined to act strongly to return peace and tranquility to society ... and to clean the country of these plotters and hooligans."


Guardians? More like henchmen from a brand of people whose time in power is now limited. They should be tried for treason against the people of Iran!


Peace and Tranquility? Take my rights away and see how much Peace and Tranquility I will convey upon to you.

Plotters and Holligans? That must be the term the theocracy use for civilians who refuse to accept their rights being taken away by a regime foul with corruption, lies and deciept and murder their own people in the streets when called into question with proof of voter fraud and favoritism.;)

Courageous? Dont make me laugh whats so courageous about beating and killing people because they are upset because the government blows and so does their theocracy. Courageous woman beaters is about all they are courageous about. Pussies!

[Guest]

They're sort of like the Waffen SS and Iraqi Republican Guard for the ayatollahs, in that they're theoretically an ideologically oriented enforcer corps/private conventional army as opposed to the more professional, traditional armed forces.

The Iraqi Republican Guard was not an state-within-state, nor was the famed Waffen SS.

The best comparision IMHO is the SS as a whole, with the Basiji akin to SA.

[Guest]

I found this on the net

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG821.pdf

[Castellano]

Again, we're probably better off discussing this in another subforum.

I agree.

[Castellano]

First, lets make sure we are talking about the same thing. To me, a 'free Iran' is one where people have the basic set of freedoms that we enjoy in the west - speech, conscience, association & the ability to elect & remove governments.

Very good short definition, actually.

It strikes me that the set of circumstances required for the regime to fall simply don't exist at this stage. There are a lot of brave, angry people demonsrating against a fraudulent result & perhaps even a stolen election (though no one really knows the latter). Some of these people undoubtedly want a 'free Iran'. Others simply want more freedoms. Yet others are perhaps just angry at the blatant manipulation of their vote.

I simply don't see how they are in a position to actually remove the regime. The best I can see at this point is that they might influence the outcome of a contest that could change some of the faces in power and permit a more free (to some degree) Iran. There remains a powerful popular constituency that supports the Islamic Republic in most respects. On side with them is the nation's power elite & I suspect enough people with guns to settle the issue if a genuine threat to the system emerges.

Indeed, as others have pointed out, it will probably take something akin to a civil war to get the mullahs out of power at this point. I'm not sure the likely outcome will be worth that price right now.

I am old enough to have a very clear memory of the events in Tiananmen square almost exactly 20 years ago. The way in which some outside commentators are projecting their own hopes & dreams about what people should be protesting for is eerily similar. Focussing on just those who say what we would like to hear or, worse, interpreting what they say completely out of context, won't do them any favours.

At this stage I think the most useful thing people in the west can do is express their support for an honest poll result, free speech & peaceful protest. All violence should be denounced & official intereference should be non-existent. In practical terms there is nothing the west can do on the ground except make things worse for the people we support.

I could be wrong about this. perhaps the protests will continue & expand to the point where the whole system will collapse. Perhaps in a week or a month there will be a dramatic change. What seems more likely is that these protests will be put down violently.

What effect might that have in the longer term? It could be that the clerics repilcate what happened in China - get smart, make some reforms & buy themselves another generation or two without relying too much on naked force. I am compelled to wonder, however, if the crudity of the vote manipulation, the openess of Khamenei's political involvement, the scale of infighting within the clerical & political elites & the scale of e may contribute to a longer term erosion of legitmacy. Perthe resort to violenchaps the people who WILL lead a free Iran are cutting their political teeth at the moment. I hope so.

I think you are wrong. I think there is a real possibility the regime can fall.

Also: Freedom has no measure.

Ok, Ok....if you want me to get realistic, I'll say this is no Tienanmen and no China, there is a chance here as you acknowledge.

And in any case, never forget the regime is the violence by definition, that much should be clear even for radical multicultis. Otherwise we would be the cause of helpless laughter among the ayatollahs. ("They fell for it? But it's too easy!")

But yes, the "west" should just make clear where it stands without being emphatic, I think Iranian people are quite aware of what they are going through.


Bottom line is I think this will end with a military dictatorship or with some kind of wonderful democracy.

I fervently hope is a free Iran and that it doesn't take a civil war to decide it.

[Dreadnought]

IMO, The regime wont fall, It has gotten bad but not bad enough for that to happen. If it did the forces around them would in all countries be on their toes no doubt. It is a true shame that it wont fall without massive life loss to the Iranians. Guess we shall see and hope for the best and keep supporting them through media and web. Tough choice not to interfere when you see what is happening to them. A moral our country constantly faces with all we come into contact with.

[gabriel]

Very good short definition, actually.

Except you have all of those freedoms in prison too.

[Castellano]

IMO, The regime wont fall, It has gotten bad but not bad enough for that to happen. If it did the forces around them would in all countries be on their toes no doubt. It is a true shame that it wont fall without massive life loss to the Iranians. Guess we shall see and hope for the best and keep supporting them through media and web. Tough choice not to interfere when you see what is happening to them. A moral our country constantly faces with all we come into contact with.

Well, Dreadnought, weren't you braggin' about Manifest Destiny and all the rest of it?

You got it. The US is the leader of the free world, so now, what are you going to do about it?

[Castellano]

Except you have all of those freedoms in prison too.

No. When you are in prison you cannot run for an election. At least in the Spanish legal system.

[Dreadnought]

Well, Dreadnought, weren't you braggin' about Manifest Destiny and all the rest of it?

You got it. The US is the leader of the free world, so now, what are you going to do about it?

As mentioned previous we cannot interfere. To do so would throw the ME into caos and our troops in the surrounding areas in danger. The best we can do is use politics and support of the people with the help of allies otherwise you risk the innocent that will fall under the boot but on a much larger scale. Iran is going to be ran be religion maybe not A-Jad but even the other fellow wont give in on the nuclear card.;)

There is still alot to come out of this, we just have to be cautious as we will be blamed none the less as A-jad and the Assahola already have done. Do we agree with whats going on? Absolutely not and never will.

[omon]

Except you have all of those freedoms in prison too.

lol, idk what romanian prisons are, but i can assure you freedom would be the last thing on your mind in us and russian prisons.
why don,t you try yourself, get there and start exsercising your freedom of speech, movement, assosiation..ect. you wont last long, or you will as a someones sex toy.

[gabriel]

lol, idk what romanian prisons are, but i can assure you freedom would be the last thing on your mind in us and russian prisons.
why don,t you try yourself, get there and start exsercising your freedom of speech, movement, assosiation..ect. you wont last long, or you will as a someones sex toy.

They are violations of civil rights in russian prisons...
I'm shocked

I can take care of myself thank you.:)

[Castellano]

As mentioned previous we cannot interfere. To do so would throw the ME into caos and our troops in the surrounding areas in danger. The best we can do is use politics and support of the people with the help of allies otherwise you risk the innocent that will fall under the boot but on a much larger scale. Iran is going to be ran be religion maybe not A-Jad but even the other fellow wont give in on the nuclear card.;)

There is still alot to come out of this, we just have to be cautious as we will be blamed none the less as A-jad and the Assahola already have done. Do we agree with whats going on? Absolutely not and never will.

The US will be blamed if it does, and damned if doesn't. Don't worry about that: just NEVER apologize for your values, and you'll be alright.

By the way, I'm myself a kind of weird neocon I guess, but I disagree with all the neocons and hawks who are asking Obama a stronger stance at this moment. I don't think he is doing bad. And also, President Obama is green but he is not a bad guy, he is a good guy. So don't be harsh on him, give him a break.