Iran Election June 09

[Roosveltrepub]

Is very easy.

Should Israel end the so called "occupation" (that consequence not cause, of Arab violence against the Jewish state), say tomorrow, the West Bank turns into Hamastán II in less that 24 hours.

And what happens then?

you reference a "so called" occupation. is it or isnt it sn occupation?

[Aryajet]

Aryajet, i don't know ...
Can you honestly look at those pictures and tell me how many are military, paramilitary personnel and how many are not ?
Regarding the second issue, i have not seen a article signed Colin Freeman in the Telegraph since Monday myself :(

I believe he is fine. He has an article about recent Iranian crisis in Telegraph, don't know if has written it the same day but it was published June 20th.

Iran election: how a week of protest has changed Islamic state for ever - Telegraph

[Bigfella]

Yeah right.

That's why is the second time I read it from you. The despicable moral equivalence attempt I mean, between a guy like A-jad, and a member of the present democratic government of Israel.

More fantasies Castellano. And you can save the moral outrage, coming from somoene who can't admit to Israeli occuption without putting the word in quotes I consider it a badge of honor.

So, tell me how this 'free Iran' is going to come about from the current circumstance. Who are its champions? How are they going to bring it about? You seem to be crossing the line between wishful thinking & reality (again).

[Bigfella]

It was a tongue-in-cheek question? A kinder and gentler Iran still committed to "peaceful" production of fissionable material, would make his call to use force against Iran more difficult to sell.

Careful JAD, the thought police are about. :)

[Castellano]

you reference a "so called" occupation. is it or isnt it sn occupation?

Yes it is occupation, and I hope a deal can be reached and Israel leaves most of the West Bank as soon as possible. That's what Israelis want too, Likud or no Likud, but the occupation is a consequence, not a cause of Arab violence, and even so, the Israelis have tried to end it a few times: last time in 2008 with Olmert.

[Castellano]

More fantasies Castellano. And you can save the moral outrage, coming from somoene who can't admit to Israeli occuption without putting the word in quotes I consider it a badge of honor.

I remember exactly in what other thread you did it and in what terms. The "occupation", outside the objective political status of a certain territory (like Tibet, Cyprus etc...), is the rhetorical excuse from people who desperately want to subvert causes and consequences and so portrait this conflict as if it was a 50-50 event.

They are the very same people who cannot name a single political party in the entire Middle East outside of Israel with better democratic credentials than the Likud. Yet, they demonize the Likud as if somehow the intractability of the conflict was its fault.

So, tell me how this 'free Iran' is going to come about from the current circumstance. Who are its champions? How are they going to bring it about? You seem to be crossing the line between wishful thinking & reality (again).

I know the regime can fall. That is not yet a free Iran, but starts to get closer. And if the regime indeed falls, I don't see it replaced by another authoritarian regime.

I'm not saying it will become a full fledged democracy like Sweden overnight, and yes, in this case I accept that I can be the victim of wishful thinking; still, Iranians among other things are a cultivated society, which seems to suggest that they can be able to produce some kind of consensual-based Government.

[Skywatcher]

Yes it is occupation, and I hope a deal can be reached and Israel leaves most of the West Bank as soon as possible. That's what Israelis want too, Likud or no Likud, but the occupation is a consequence, not a cause of Arab violence, and even so, the Israelis have tried to end it a few times: last time in 2008 with Olmert.

If it's a consequence of Arab violence, then why has most of the casualties between Israelis and Palestinians happened after 1967 and with the increase in settlement activity?

[Freeloader]

I think Obama's stance on this has been about as good as it can be. In 1991 when protests broke out in Iraq towards Saddam Hussein, George H W Bush supported it, telling the people to defy him. He responded by killing the people doing it, and in the end it was America and Bush who received a large portion of the blame. Obama doesn't want this to turn into a focus on us. The people of Iran need to create this change.

What is now needed for this to really turn into our favor, is that some in the army of Iran, need to defy the government and suppy people with guns. That, would create some major change.

[Freeloader]

The girl who the world watched die on Youtube and Live Leak was named Neda.
.

Ah, so that was the girls name, where the "Neda" chant originated from? I was wondering that - thanks.

[Guest]

Khamenei and Rafsanjani may be at odds now, but twenty years ago it was Rafsanjani who helped Khamenei get to the top.

The clip has subtitles.

YouTube - Rafsanjani chose supreme leader in 1989 (with subtitles)

I wonder how much real power does Rafsanjani's Assembly of Experts have? .. while it can constitutionally remove Khamenei, it has not done anything to be recollection since late 80s.

[Guest]

The story of Grand Ayatollah Montezeri

YouTube - Iran's Rebel Ayatollah - Iran

[Castellano]

If it's a consequence of Arab violence, then why has most of the casualties between Israelis and Palestinians happened after 1967 and with the increase in settlement activity?

No that's not correct. The majority of casualties have been prior to 1967, although I don't think that the number of casualties by itself would prove anything.

Consider these points:


Why did Israel occupied those territories?

Because it was attacked by Jordan from those territories (by the way, it only magically occurred to Palestinians to become Palestinians after 1967, before they were Jordanians who did not challenge Jordan's annexation at all.)


Did "occupation" exist before 67?

According to the 1964 PLO charter yes. The entire territory of Israel is "occupied".


Did the Israelis try to end the occupation?

Yes.
For example, right after 67, first inception of the peace for territories formula, to which the Arab nations replied with the 3 Nos of the Khartoum Conference; in Taba 2001 with Ehud Barak; and in 2008 with Olmert. Which brings the next question...


So why did the Palestinians reject the deal in 2001 or 2008?

Because the conflict is most certainly not about the occupation, the settlements or the Palestinian State. It is not about territory. And if the Israelis ended the occupation tomorrow, they will have to come back in 24 hours to reoccupy and we are back to square one.

Because as I said, the occupation is, and has always been, a consequence, not a cause of violence against the Jewish state.

[Aryajet]

This picture is published in BBC shows who is actually destroying/vandalizing private and public properties to give a bad name to opposition.
I wonder if this ancient trick still works or not.

[Merlin]

There seems to be two separate battles being fought in Iran.

One is the younger generation including women asking for freedom from the ruling elite. The average age of Iran is only 27.

The other is within the ruling elite between the two factions headed by the two Ayatollahs - Khamanei and Rafsanjani.

This below is about the second battle.

Struggle among Iran's clerics bursts into the open

20 min ago TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A backstage struggle among Iran's ruling clerics burst into the open Sunday when the government said it had arrested the daughter and other relatives of an ayatollah who is one of the country's most powerful men.

State media said four relatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani were later released, but the arrests appeared to be a clear warning from the hardline establishment to a cleric who may be aligning himself with the opposition. ...

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi warned supporters of danger ahead, and said he would stand by the protesters "at all times."

The former prime minister, a longtime loyalist of the Islamic government, also called the Basij and military "our brothers" and "protectors of our revolution and regime." He may be trying to constrain his followers' demands before they pose a mortal threat to Iran's quixotic system of limited democracy constrained by Shiite clerics, who have ultimate authority.

His chances of success within the system would be far higher if he has backers among those clerics. ....

In the clearest sign yet of a splintering among the ayatollahs, state media announced the arrests of Rafsanjani's relatives including his daughter Faezeh, a 46-year-old reformist politician vilified by hard-liners for her open support of Mousavi. ...

Rafsanjani heads the cleric-run Assembly of Experts, which can remove the supreme leader, the country's most powerful figure. He also chairs the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council.

Rafsanjani and his family have been accused of corruption by Ahmadinejad. And the 75-year-old ayatollah was conspicuously absent Friday from an address by the country's supreme leader calling for national unity and siding with the president.

That fueled speculation that Rafsanjani, who has made no public comment since the election, may be working behind the scenes and favoring Mousavi.

The Assembly of Experts has not publicly reprimanded Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since he succeeded Islamic Revolution founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. But this crisis has rattled the once-untouchable stature of the supreme leader. ...

At least some lower-ranking clergy also appeared to have broken with the supreme leader. Photos posted by a moderate conservative news Web site showed what appeared to be mullahs in brown robes and white turbans protesting alongside a crowd of young men, some wearing the green shirts or sashes symbolizing Mousavi's self-described "Green Wave" movement. ...

[Guest]

There seems to be two separate battles being fought in Iran.

One is the younger generation including women asking for freedom from the ruling elite. The average age of Iran is only 27.

The other is within the ruling elite between the two factions headed by the two Ayatollahs - Khamanei and Rafsanjani.

This below is about the second battle.

Struggle among Iran's clerics bursts into the open

As well as another battle perhapes, between the middle class (north of Tehran) against the former lower rural class (south of Tehran)