Iran Election June 09

[Chunder]

I think a number of comments have been ungallant

Let's just praise the bravery and the beautiful eyes of "Persian Woman" or else shut up.
....
THEY ARE BEAUTIFUL

Too right. I hope she comes and protests in my street. I will offer her political assyalum. Hmmm I could be onto something here.

Also, For a Non-drinking society, the guy in denim with the green hood on behind her... has an impressive beergut for a society that drinks non-alcoholic beer...

:p

[zraver]

Too right. I hope she comes and protests in my street. I will offer her political assyalum. Hmmm I could be onto something here.

Also, For a Non-drinking society, the guy in denim with the green hood on behind her... has an impressive beergut for a society that drinks non-alcoholic beer...

:p

Who told you they didn't drink? All hey have to do is go to the local Armenian Christian enclave and drink away. One of the main things smuggled from Irag to Iran is alcohol.

[Dreadnought]

Trying to understand the unrest.

(CNN) -- For almost a week, tens of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets in daily protests -- handkerchiefs shielding their faces from the pungency of tear gas, fists punching the air, and chants of "Down with the dictator" echoing against buildings.


Moussovi supporters rally Wednesday in Tehran, Iran. Released by Fars News Agency of Iran.

more photos » The massive outpouring is a result of a disputed presidential election that the protesters think coronated the incumbent hard-liner, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over their candidate, Mir Hossain Moussavi.

Context can help put their grievances into perspective:

Q. The Iran that we know today is the result of the Islamic Revolution. What is it?

A. The Islamic Revolution is the name given to the Iranian revolution of 1979, when the ruling U.S.-supported monarchy was overthrown and Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was forced into exile. See timeline of recent Iranian history »

The country held a national referendum to become an Islamic republic and approve a new constitution.

The constitution was a hybrid of democracy and unelected religious leadership. It appointed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini -- the leader of the revolution -- the supreme leader of the country.

Before he died in 1989, he made it known that he wanted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to succeed him.

Q. Is it true that the ultimate power in Iran lies with Khamenei?

A. Yes. The supreme leader has the final say in all important matters of the country, such as ties with foreign nations or Iran's nuclear aspirations.

He appoints the Guardian Council -- the country's election authority. He also appoints key posts in the intelligence services and the armed forces, including the powerful Revolutionary Guard. Additionally, he confirms the president's election.

In theory, the supreme leader is appointed by a body of clerics whom voters elect. But in practice, this body -- the Assembly of Experts -- has answered to the supreme leader.

Khamenei, 70, was appointed supreme leader for life in 1989.

Q. What is the Guardian Council, which has been in the news, saying it will recount some of the votes in the disputed election?

A. The unelected Guardian Council is the second-most influential body in Iran politics. It consists of six theologians whom the supreme leader picks and six jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament.

The council approves all candidates running for office in the country, and verifies election results.

It vetoes bills passed by the parliament if they do not conform to the constitution and Islamic law.

In the present crisis, opposition leader Moussavi has had to take his grievance to the Guardian Council. It has agreed to some vote recounts. See galleries of protests in Iran »

Q. So, how much power does the president wield?

A. It depends on how nicely he plays with the Guardian Council.

The president is elected by direct vote to a four-year term, for a maximum of two terms.

He is responsible for economic policy and social programs, but most of the larger decisions are made by the supreme leader.

In theory, his powers are second to the supreme leader's. But in practice, he is often hamstrung by the Guardian Council.

The Guardian Council has worked with hard-liner Ahmadinejad, a 53-year-old former mayor of Tehran who was elected in 2005. But it thwarted reform attempts by his predecessor, Mohammad Khatami.

Q. What is the Revolutionary Guard, who said they will take legal action against pro-Moussavi Web sites?

A. The guard was initially created to protect the leaders of the revolution. But over the years, it has broadened its scope. Today, it is directly under the control of the supreme leader and enforces the governments' Islamic codes and morality

With more than 200,000 members, it is tasked with overseeing the country's crucial interests, including guarding its oil fields and missile arsenals.

Q. What is the Basij, who are said to be behind most of the violence against opposition supporters?

A. The Basij is a volunteer paramilitary force that takes orders from the Revolutionary Guard. It plays the role of de facto morality police and is often summoned to crack down on protests.

It is unknown how large the force is, though estimates are in the millions.

Q. What evidence is there of ballot fraud?

A. There are no concrete examples of fraud, because independent monitors did not oversee polling in Iran, but the circumstantial evidence is persuasive.

The government had initially said it would take three days to verify the ballots after Election Day on June 12. But the election authority proclaimed Ahmadinejad the winner two hours after the polls closed. At the same time, the interior ministry said that 85 percent of the country's 46 million eligible voters had cast ballots -- a record turnout.

To many, so many ballots could not have been hand-counted in such a short time.

Also, the published results showed that Ahmadinejad won even in his opponents' strongholds, including Moussavi's hometown of ethnic Azeri Turks.

"This is the equivalent of Barack Obama losing the African-American vote to John McCain in 2008," said Karim Sajadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Furthermore, Moussavi went into the election with massive support from the country's youth, who were unhappy with the faltering economy and an unemployment rate that tops 30 percent by some accounts. The youth make up 60 percent of Iran's population of 70 million.

Q. Is it true that Ahmadinejad still enjoys widespread support?

A. Yes. Ahmadinejad is popular across Iran's rural areas and among the Basij militia.

He presents himself as a populist and a fighter. He has paid attention to the families of the bloody Iran-Iraq war, offering special preferences to veterans' children in university admissions.

As president, his hardline approach has won him support among the Guardian Council. He has earned a reputation internationally as a fundamentalist for his Holocaust denials, calls to annihilate Israel, and cat-and-mouse games with the United States and the United Nations over Iran's nuclear activities. Many in the establishment view him as someone who does not cower to big-footing by the West.

Q. Why, then, do some analysts think the vote was manipulated?

A. Some experts say that even if it is likely that Ahmadinejad won the election, it is unlikely he could have won by the margin the government is claiming -- 62.63 percent of the vote.

Time magazine's Joe Klein explains it this way: "It is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad would have won anyway, but narrowly, perhaps with less than 50 percent of the vote, setting up a runoff election he might have lost as the other candidates united against him. It is possible that his government, perhaps acting in concert with supreme leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, decided to take no chances."

Q. Why is Iran's population so young?

A. After the revolution, the leaders encouraged early marriage and large families, rewarding families with cars and television sets for each additional child. During the country's devastating eight-year war with Iraq, which began in 1980, the regime continued encouraging population growth, because more children meant more future soldiers.

It is those children who are now coming of age.

Q. Why did Iran summon Switzerland's ambassador to complain about perceived U.S. involvement in Iran's election process?

A. The United States cut diplomatic ties with Iran following the hostage crisis in 1979, when students in support of the Islamic Revolution took 52 Americans hostage and held them for 444 days.

Q. Is this movement a challenge to the Islamic republic?

A. The demonstrators say their demand is simple: Hold fresh elections. They say they are not out to challenge the Islamic regime. Watch protests Wednesday in Tehran »

Furthermore, Moussavi is an unlikely man for the job.

Though the 67-year-old former prime minister is credited for successfully navigating the Iranian economy as prime minister during the Iran-Iraq war, he also was a hard-liner whom the Economist described as a "firm radical."

He, like most Iranians in power, does not believe in the existence of Israel. He defended the taking of the American hostages in 1979. He was part of a regime that regularly executed dissidents. And as late as April, he opposed suspending the country's nuclear-enrichment program but said it would not be diverted to weapons use.

The protests have exposed a fissure in the country, however, with tens of thousands of Ahmadinejad backers taking to the streets in a show of force of their own.

Q. Are the current protests likely to continue?

A. For now, the government seems to be allowing the populace to vent pent-up frustrations. But it also is gradually cracking down, such as blocking Web sites and banning international journalists from filming the rallies.

The demonstrations have so far been focused on urban areas. Should the populace in rural areas take up the call for reform, the government might step in quickly to quash the protests, analysts say. See map of demonstration sites in Tehran »

Q. Is this the first time Iranians have risen up in mass protests against the regime?

A. No. Iran has twice seen public calls for reform in recent years: in 1999, after the closing of a reformist newspaper, and after parliamentary elections in 2000.

On both occasions, the Revolutionary Guard descended on the streets after a few days and crushed the movements.


Q. So, can true reform come to Iran?

A. It is possible. Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Khatami, was elected president in 1997 by a landslide, despite being a reformer. During his two terms, he championed freedom of expression, tried to mend diplomatic relations, and supported a free market. He was, however, hamstrung at every step by stiff resistance from the supreme leader and the Guardian Council.


This report includes information from various sources, including the U.S. State Department, the CIA Factbook, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, previous CNN reports and guest commentaries.

*Not stating this report as the truth or last word. Just posting this to help answer some questions those of us that dont know might ask.

[crooks]

Have to say I was deeply moved by the Tehran rallies - these people are fighting for liberal democracy in a region where it's never been popular, standing up to a conservative junta...it's like a mini-revolution for change, peace and freedom.

I just hope that whatever comes out of this will be done with civility and decency, though to quote V for Vendetta we must always be weary when people without guns march towards those who have them, it could turn very ugly, very quickly.

[BenRoethig]

I don't now how liberal they want their democracy, but they've said loud and clear, they don't take kindly of being taken advantage of.

[Aryajet]

Persian women are hot no doubt, but it's also widely known that Iranian women have a high rate of plastic surgery amongst them, compared to the world in general. I remember reading that somewhere. So that also might have something to do with it, perhaps

Top 3% elite who can afford such a high price tagged constructive operation. Rest will always remain with the same appearance which nature (god, who ever that is) has allocated them for the rest of their lives. Beautiful or not.
Iranian women who goes under such an operation always wear midium to heavy make up, Channel eye wear, Burberry attire, Cartier watch, Prada purse and Coach shoes and the Lady in the picture does not look she belongs to that class.

[Aryajet]

Z

I have seen a staged rally before ( when i was 8 or 9 y.o. ), i don't think ALL of them are troops.

Question is, how did they get access to 10s of 1000s of flags all same shape and size in such a short period of time? Everdau folks are not that privileged even if they wholeheartedly support AmAdinnerjacket.
BTW: Tall flags and banners always provide optical illusion that # of attendees is lot higher than what actually it is.
Just the # of IRGC, Basij, Badr Brigade , Ansar ol Hezbollh who are on call in Tehran 24/7 is enough to fill up 4 main crossing streets.

[gabriel]

Question is, how did they get access to 10s of 1000s of flags all same shape and size in such a short period of time? Everdau folks are not that privileged even if they wholeheartedly support AmAdinnerjacket.

Same way North Koreans do in their rally. But that's besides the point.

[Aryajet]

Nus

Yeah, they should leave a crowd alone to burn the entire city, not just several buildings.

Looking at the ugly situation in "color revolutions" countries, I really hope Iranians are smarter, and can handle elections without destroing their state. :(

Dear Sir/Madam,
Infiltrating government agents under camouflage of civilian cloth into protesters and start vandalizing and destroying civilian properties and blame them on the opposition in order to tarnish their image has been practiced countless times by despotic, oligarchic dictatorships trough out the history of human civilization, and Iranian regime is no different.
I don't want to flood this thread with 100s pix and video clip to prove a point so allow to bring 2 evidences to your attention:
During Tuseday June 16th demonstration the entire protesters were all clapping with their hands on the air, this action didn't mean to imply that are happy and celebrating. They wanted the whole world to see they are not carrying anything except may be a bottle of water along with very small piece of paper with a short slogan written on it.
There is no single evidence of any one carrying a single tool required to destroy a city.
The picture below will show you who is actually vandalizing civilian propertie also note the top right corner who is actually commanding/instructing these goons. And NO he is not a civilian bystander, no civilian bystander has the guts to stick around while so many Robo-Cops are present.
In this sensitive time of Iranian recent history I don't believe those freedom seeking Iranians will take your insult lightly, neither will I.
So please refrain from commenting if you have nothing constructive to say and just keep praising A-jad in your solitude.

[Aryajet]

Same way North Koreans do in their rally. But that's besides the point.

The point is, take all the military, paramilitary personnel who have been ushered to the rally with Gov. buses and given flags, banners, horns and predetermined slogans away and then see who many real A-jad supporter will remain.

Also I'm amazed to see time after time world media saying 10s of 1000s of Iranian protesters in the streets when I see 100s of 1000s may be over million and at the same time they claim their journalists have been confined to their hotel rooms and banned from reporting direct within protesters by Iranian authorities.

[gabriel]

The point is, take all the military, paramilitary personnel who have been ushered to the rally with Gov. buses and given flags, banners, horns and predetermined slogans away and then see who many real A-jad supporter will remain.
Also I'm amazed to see time after time world media saying 10s of 1000s of Iranian protesters in the streets when I see 100s of 1000s may be over million and at the same time they claim their journalists have been confined to their hotel rooms and banned from reporting direct within protesters by Iranian authorities.

Aryajet, i don't know ...
Can you honestly look at those pictures and tell me how many are military, paramilitary personnel and how many are not ?
Regarding the second issue, i have not seen a article signed Colin Freeman in the Telegraph since Monday myself :(

[Aryajet]

To those who say Iranian women are mostly beautiful.
Look at this "Precious"!!
And goons ambush her place of business and crack her skull. They will pay for this, very soon I hope.

[Oscar]

The picture below will show you who is actually vandalizing civilian propertie also note the top right corner who is actually commanding/instructing these goons. And NO he is not a civilian bystander, no civilian bystander has the guts to stick around while so many Robo-Cops are present.

SAVAK used the same method in the beginning of the unrests in 1978. It backfired dramatically.

According to witnesses there was maybe 1 million people at the rally in Tehran today. And the demonstrations in province attracted a lot of people too.

Basijis are starting to hide their faces in the street now. Fear switched sides.

[Dreadnought]

Takes some real brave men to strike a woman. Pussies!

[Castellano]

Sorry, I was reading about how the "moral police" enforced the hijab and also was affected by alcoholic beverages, and in retrospect my comment might have been, well, a bit hysterical...

Do you know Michael Ledeen? He is a rather intriguing character, unabashedly hawkish neocon, and close Iran observer. He is writing about all this in a blog in pajamas media. This is the latest entry:

So NOW What’s Going on in Iran?

Michael Ledeen On June 17, 2009 @ 12:43 pm

Ahmadi-Nezhad has left the country, for one thing. He’s gone off to meet with some of his Russian friends. Why? Who knows? Maybe he’s looking at rental properties. But no doubt the Iranians have been talking to the Russians and the Chinese about, uh, “crowd control.” I don’t think either will have particularly useful ideas for the Iranian revolutionary movement, frankly. Sending in the tanks might appeal to Khamenei et. al., but there seems to be considerable evidence that the armed forces, even the Revolutionary Guards, are unreliable. Twitter messages abound in little scenes of friendly exchanges between police and dissidents. There are even stories of police arresting Basij thugs. And I haven’t seen a single account of Army repression. Quite the contrary; the Army seems to be trying to protect the dissidents by separating their would-be attackers from the demonstrators.

It seems that tomorrow, Thursday, will be the first big showdown. The regime is massing two Revolutionary Guards divisions for an assault on the dissidents–something like twenty thousand soldiers from outside Tehran–and the Mousavi people don’t want to give them time to organize and prepare their attacks. No doubt there are all kinds of secret meetings going on, as the various military, militia, religious and political leaders try to read the chicken entrails and guess their destiny. I don’t envy them the very brutal choice they now face, for despite some http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/op...etka.html?_r=1 embarrassingly silly opeds in places like the NY Times

"JUST after Iran’s rigged elections last week, with hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets, it looked as if a new revolution was in the offing. Five days later, the uprising is little more than a symbolic protest, crushed by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps."

the most powerful leaders in Iran are facing a life or death showdown. Both Khamenei and Mousavi–the two opposed icons of the moment, at least–know that they will either win or die. After nightfall, millions of revolutionaries chant from their rooftops “Allah is Great” and they are chants of defiance hurled at the Islamic Republic. I cannot imagine a soft landing.

Meanwhile, the regime is rounding up political leaders and killing dissidents. More than two score former VIPs of the regime are now in jail, according to the data given Khamenei, which lists the surprisingly low number of 36 dead over the past four and a half days. Given their paranoia of young people, and especially educated youth, it is no surprise that university campuses have been invaded, and anyone who looks like a “student” is attacked. This heart-rending letter has been circulating most of the day online (I posted it on The Corner):

"I am a medical student. There was chaos last night at the trauma section in one of our main hospitals. Although by decree, all riot-related injuries were supposed to be sent to military hospitals, all other hospitals were filled to the rim. Last night, nine people died at our hospital and another 28 had gunshot wounds. All hospital employees were crying till dawn. They (government) removed the dead bodies on back of trucks, before we were even able to get their names or other information. What can you even say to the people who don’t even respect the dead. No one was allowed to speak to the wounded or get any information from them. This morning the faculty and the students protested by gathering at the lobby of the hospital where they were confronted by plain cloths anti-riot militia, who in turn closed off the hospital and imprisoned the staff. The extent of injuries are so grave, that despite being one of the most staffed emergency rooms, they’ve asked everyone to stay and help—I’m sure it will even be worst tonight.

What can anyone say in face of all these atrocities? What can you say to the family of the 13 year old boy who died from gunshots and whose dead body then disappeared?

This issue is not about cheating(election) anymore. This is not about stealing votes anymore. The issue is about a vast injustice inflicted on the people."

I think that many pundits insist on thinking about the Iran-that-was-five-days-ago, instead of the bubbling cauldron that it is today. The same mistake is repeated when people say that Mousavi, after all, is “one of them,” a member of the founding generation of the Islamic Republic, and so you can’t expect real change from him. The president made that mistake when he said that he didn’t expect any real difference in Iran’s behavior, no matter how this drama plays out.

I think that is wrong; at this point, Mousavi either brings down the Islamic Republic or he hangs. If he wins, and the Islamic Republic comes down, we may well see the whole world change, from an end of the theocratic fascist system, to a cutoff of money, arms, technology, training camps and intelligence to the world’s leading terrorist organizations, and yes, even to a termination of the nuclear weapons program.

I think that, whatever or whoever Mir Hossein Mousavi was five days ago, he is now the leader of a mass movement that demands the creation of a free Iran that will rejoin the Western world. And yes, the wheel could turn again, this revolution could one day be betrayed, all kinds of surprises no doubt await the Iranian people. Yes, but. But today, there is a dramatic chance of a very good thing happening in Iran, and thus in the Middle East, and therefore in the whole world.

I have no doubt that Obama is being told by his intelligence czars and wizards that the regime is going to win, that the disturbances are not all that serious, and that he’s going to have to deal with Ahmadi-Nezhad for the next four years, so he’d better be careful not to offend the poor dear. That’s what every intelligence service ALWAYS says in these situations. It’s what the Israeli Mossad is saying publicly, for heaven’s sake:

Mossad chief Meir Dagan estimated that the civil unrest in Iran will not continue much longer.

Speaking to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Dagan downplayed the significance of the riots, saying they are taking place only in Tehran and one other province.

Mr. Dagan, let us say, is phenomenally badly informed. The “riots” are taking place in every major city of Iran. Leon Panetta hasn’t made any public statements (bless him for that), but one will get you five that the CIA didn’t think there was any chance of this sort of all-out confrontation as of “election-circus day” and while they have no doubt hedged a bit since then, they still likely bet on a regime win.

Which is why I have a limited sympathy for Obama’s efforts to say nothing much, even though I don’t like it, and I think it’s a mistake on his own grounds. As I said last time, it’s wrong to think that your chances of getting a deal from your enemy is enhanced if you appease him. Reagan got lots of deals from the Soviet Union, even though he denounced it most every day.

As Obama discovered just today, America will be accused of meddling on behalf of freedom, even if we do nothing. And the accusation will have been true, in the most fundamental sense, even though the State Department raced to deny it. We are the symbol of freedom in the modern world, and those fighting for freedom against tyrants will intuitively invoke our name and our Constitution in their struggle. They are right, for the very existence of America threatens the legitimacy of the tyrants.

We meddle because we exist.

Faster, Please!