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Ahmadinejad really is the man in charge

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  • Ahmadinejad really is the man in charge

    Interesting commentary. Few people would know how the power-structure within the various chambers of the Iranian government really works in practice. But this is definitely a new spin on things from the recent writings that have emerged over the past couple of years about the positions of the Supreme Leader and President in I.R Iran.

    Ahmadinejad really is the man in charge
    By Shahir Shahidsaless

    It is increasingly becoming an accepted fact among political analysts and politicians in the West that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad should not be taken seriously, and that the real power in Iran rests in the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    In an interview with NPR radio, former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski stated: "President Ahmadinejad sounds very impressive, but he's not really the president of Iran ... He neither commands the Iranian armed forces nor is in charge of the Iranian foreign policy even. The country is ruled by higher echelons culminating in the supreme leader."

    According to the report entitled "Restoring the Balance", researched and written jointly by two influential institutions - the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Brookings Institution - which is apparently designed to provide a detailed roadmap for US President Barack Obama's top policymakers, “No movement on the core issues of interest to the United States will be possible without the approval of Iran's supreme leader.”

    Under Iran's constitution, the role of the supreme leader is clearly defined over and above all three governmental branches. However, the law does not necessarily mean much in Iran and as the evidence below suggests, Ahmadinejad holds the real power in Iran, not Khamenei.

    Ahmadinejad crushes rivals
    During the June 2005 presidential election in Iran, a man relatively unknown to the public, let alone the international community, Ahmadinejad, the son of a blacksmith, rose to power.

    Eight days before the 2005 elections in Iran, Baztab, the subsequently-banned website that was related to ex-Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezaii, published a news item that was lost among the excitement and clamor of those days. It read: "A number of commanders of a military force are involved in vast activities in favor of one of the candidates."

    The Baztab report added: "These commanders have gathered high-ranking officers of the Basij [a volunteer-based paramilitary force] and explicitly ordered them to convey the message to their personnel that Basij should support that specific candidate."

    A consideration of what transpired later made it clear that candidate was none other than Ahmadinejad.

    During the election, another unofficial news item revealed shocking details of a very complicated operation called "Basir", designed and conducted by the IRGC to mobilize Basiji families and their relatives to vote for Ahmadinejad. The plan was implicitly admitted by then deputy commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

    Prior to the 2005 election, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - two-time president, ex-chairman of Iran's parliament and one of the most powerful ayatollahs in Iran - was so influential, alongside Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and Mehdi Karrubi, that it was unimaginable to think that anyone other than Khamenei could challenge their power.

    One day after the first round of the election, Karrubi said: "Up until 7 o'clock this morning, I was on top. Suddenly, in an unusual jump, one of the gentlemen gained one million votes. These problems are caused by a very obscure network that even runs the show in the Guardian Council." This "obscure network", as announced later by Karrubi in his open letter to Khamenei, included the IRGC, Basij and the security forces.

    In a press conference, furious over the events, he yelled: "To those who worked with love [in this election], not those who worked with profits from illegal jetties, smuggling, and the [illegal] sale of sugar and tea, I say that we will resist."

    Karrubi was the first official to reveal the existence of the illegal jetties which are heavily controlled by the IRGC. Karrubi's advisor claimed that 60% of total imports went through what he called "invisible jetties". In another instance, an influential reformist and ex-parliament representative, Mohsen Armin, in his resignation letter from parliament (Majlis) warned that about US$12 billion worth of goods was smuggled annually through illegal jetties.

    Following his shocking defeat in the election, in an open letter to the Iranian people, Rafsanjani - the other defeated clergy - also stated, "In an unprecedented action, by using billions [of Tomans the Iranian currency] from Baitulmal [term referring to the assets of the Islamic government] ... and government resources in an organized way, some individuals interfered illegally with the elections." He never did mention any names.

    Ahmadinejad's control of oil and its proceeds
    While Khamenei also establishes his power by relying on the most powerful network in the country, referred to as an "obscure network" by Karrubi, it is Ahmadinejad who has firm and close relations with that network. Why? Because Ahmadinejad is the man who can feed the network and facilitate its activities and operations inside and outside of Iran by having a strong handle on the large sums of money from oil revenues.

    A confidential report prepared by Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, the inspector general, to the Majlis regarding the illegal withdrawals from the foreign currency reserves by Ahmadinejad's administration sparked a full-blown fight between Ahmadinejad and Pour-Mohammadi, a powerful clergy, who was previously released from his duties by Ahmadinejad as the interior minister.

    The amount of money withdrawn illegally by Ahmadinejad's administration is not known. However, according to Ayatollah Hassan Rowhani - a reformist and Khamenei's current representative to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) - it exceeds a mind-boggling $46 billion.

    Ali Larijani's ouster from his internationally well-known position is another example of the extent of Ahmadinejad's power in Iran.

    Larijani was the secretary of the SNSC and top negotiator of Iran's nuclear issue with the West between 2005 and 2007, and the representative of Khamenei to that council. By law, it is the president that appoints the secretary of the SNSC. However, when Larijani was also appointed as Khamenei's representative in the SNSC, it was assumed that all the policies and negotiations with the so called "Iran Six" group (five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) were being dictated and controlled by Khamenei.

    During the negotiations on Iran's nuclear standoff between Larijani and Javier Solana (the top negotiator for the "Iran Six" group), it gradually became apparent that there were serious differences between Larijani and Ahmadinejad - representing the ultra-hardliners - in dealing with the nuclear issue.

    The friction between the two peaked in October 2007 when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited Iran and had a meeting with Khamenei. Following that meeting, Larijani said to the press that Putin "has offered a special proposal" and added that "we are reviewing it now". At the same time, Khamenei's statement - which was the first and last of its kind that "we will think about what you said and about your proposal" was a clear confirmation of the position that Larijani had taken earlier.

    It didn't take too long for the world to learn that there was also another man in charge of the Iranian nuclear negotiations with the West, who was largely and naively ignored.

    Ahmadinejad's response was harsh and swift. In a widely broadcast statement he said, "There was no nuclear proposal. Rather, he [Putin] had brought the message of friendship and all-out cooperation." This statement - although ignored by the world - was the president's way of warning those inside and outside the country, even the Supreme Leader, not to even think about bypassing him. Larijani resigned almost immediately. This was a clear indication of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and the ayatollah.

    Surprisingly, despite the fact that Ahmadinejad had clearly overruled Khamenei's position regarding Putin's proposal and practically fired his representative, Khamenei chose absolute silence.

    Khamenei understands the extent of Ahmadinejad's power, and in order to maintain his own status, has never nor will he ever challenge Ahmadinejad.

    Ahmadinejad's is quoted as having said: "He [Khamenei] thinks that I am his president, but I am Imam Zaman's president."

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KC11Ak02.html

  • #2
    Hmm, Interesting. So I'm guessing now that all world leaders who are against Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon may take his words at face value. A very dangerous proposition indeed. That is for Ahmadinejad.;)
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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    • #3
      I've been saying this for quite some time. The Guards have too much political, economic and military power. If the country doesn't break the guards, the guards will break the country.

      Comment


      • #4
        Usually when the military controls a country you tend to see massive amounts being spent on the military. In Iran you tend not to see that, yes there is a half decent defence industry but they seem to be too busy lining their pockets than to spend the money required to make Iran last more than 24 hours in a war with the US.

        $46 billion dollars spent on the military could buy a lot of much needed toys that they currently dont have. The Air force is a shambles, the Navy is basically a collection of soft targets apart from the Kilos and the Army, although probably a very good light infantry force is severelly lacking in modern effective heavy equipment. Air defence also sucks, they have a token amount of Sa-15s, seem to be getting another token amount of S300/400s and apart from that have a large force of pre 1979 leftovers that the west has worked out how to defeat back in the early 80s.

        Even if you can develop a handful of nukes its not enough to make you a regional power. It leaves you with no strategic depth at all in the sense that you cannot maintain any proper military campaign and the only thing to do then is to give up and be humiliated or go nuclear and be turned to glass.
        The best part of repentance is the sin

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        • #5
          Originally posted by chakos View Post
          Usually when the military controls a country you tend to see massive amounts being spent on the military. In Iran you tend not to see that, yes there is a half decent defence industry but they seem to be too busy lining their pockets than to spend the money required to make Iran last more than 24 hours in a war with the US.

          $46 billion dollars spent on the military could buy a lot of much needed toys that they currently dont have. The Air force is a shambles, the Navy is basically a collection of soft targets apart from the Kilos and the Army, although probably a very good light infantry force is severelly lacking in modern effective heavy equipment. Air defence also sucks, they have a token amount of Sa-15s, seem to be getting another token amount of S300/400s and apart from that have a large force of pre 1979 leftovers that the west has worked out how to defeat back in the early 80s.
          Worlds 3rd or 4th largest inventory of sea mines

          Might have the worlds biggest inventory of BM's

          huge fleet of fast attack craft and armed speed boats that are a very real littoral threat

          They make a version of the Super Cobra

          They have around 1500-2000 semi modern tanks (M60 patton, Cheiftan, T-72, T-72Z)

          rocket torpedoes including the domestically built and verified Hoot.

          TOW missiles

          AAM's AIM9J, AIM-7, AIM-54, airhawk

          AGM/PGW converted AIM-54 and glidebombs

          SAMs from the Hy-2, I Hawk and manpad plus a radar controlled 35mm and 100mm autocannon.(These are not left overs, the platforms they are based on are old, but the guts are newer. Not cutting edge by anymeans, but not the original either.)

          They are not hightech, but they are not in the 70's either.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by zraver View Post
            Worlds 3rd or 4th largest inventory of sea mines

            Might have the worlds biggest inventory of BM's

            huge fleet of fast attack craft and armed speed boats that are a very real littoral threat

            They make a version of the Super Cobra

            They have around 1500-2000 semi modern tanks (M60 patton, Cheiftan, T-72, T-72Z)

            rocket torpedoes including the domestically built and verified Hoot.

            TOW missiles

            AAM's AIM9J, AIM-7, AIM-54, airhawk

            AGM/PGW converted AIM-54 and glidebombs

            SAMs from the Hy-2, I Hawk and manpad plus a radar controlled 35mm and 100mm autocannon.(These are not left overs, the platforms they are based on are old, but the guts are newer. Not cutting edge by anymeans, but not the original either.)

            They are not hightech, but they are not in the 70's either.
            Actually apart from some BM tech and some of the newer ocean mines there is nothing that you mentioned above that is >circa 1980

            Yes some are upgraded, but mutton dressed as lamb is still mutton
            The best part of repentance is the sin

            Comment


            • #7
              So does it mean there is not much point in other Presidential candidates coming forward in the June Election?

              Iranian Presidential Race Heats Up as Third Reformist Candidate Joins

              Mar 10, 2009 BEIRUT -- A third reform candidate joined Iran's June 12 presidential race in a tactic aimed at delivering a blow to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances of re-election, reformists said Tuesday.

              Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi said Tuesday that he was throwing his hat into the race, joining former President Mohammad Khatami and cleric Mahdi Karroubi.

              Reformists said the move isn't a sign of division, but rather part of a strategy aimed at winning a wider base of support. Two of the three are expected to withdraw at the last minute, throwing their support behind the strongest contender. The deadline set internally by the reform camp for unifying behind one candidate is May. ....

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              • #8
                They need sombody with alot less religious and terrorist rhetoric. If they leave him in power and he continues then it will only be a matter of time before Israel stikes unless ofcoarse thats what they want.;)
                Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by chakos View Post
                  Actually apart from some BM tech and some of the newer ocean mines there is nothing that you mentioned above that is >circa 1980

                  Yes some are upgraded, but mutton dressed as lamb is still mutton
                  Nice to know the F-15 and F-16 are mutton. The fact is techwise Iran is the most advanced likely US adversary since the fall of the USSR. Its also the first real enemy to have the ability to threaten US carriers and regional bases with more than harassment. It also occupies the strategic heights as it were. Iran isn't Iraq or Serbia. If War comes Iran has the tools to make a real issue of the survival of any USN assets inside the gulf, the survival of the fleet base at Bahrain and the army/USMC forces in Iraq plus of course the survival of the worlds economy.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Merlin View Post
                    So does it mean there is not much point in other Presidential candidates coming forward in the June Election?

                    Iranian Presidential Race Heats Up as Third Reformist Candidate Joins
                    Ahmadinejad has been in the good books of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This relationship is important in the upcoming presidential election in June.

                    But suddenly, this news below comes along. Amadinejad is publically scolded by Khameni.

                    Iranian Leader Is Scolded on Removal of Official

                    4 May TEHRAN (AP) — Iran’s supreme religious leader publicly rebuked the country’s president on Monday over his removal of an official who organizes the annual hajj pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia.

                    The rare show of discontent by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued in the Iranian news media on Monday, raised questions about whether the ayatollah was backing away from his support of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the June 12 elections.

                    Ayatollah Khamenei holds ultimate power in Iran, at the top of the clerical hierarchy above elected officials. If he is seen as turning away from Mr. Ahmadinejad, the president’s conservative base could take it as a signal to back another candidate. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s popularity has fallen among some Iranians because of the ailing economy, and among others because of his tough stance on Iran’s nuclear program.

                    Saeed Leilaz, an economist and political commentator in Tehran, called the rebuke “unprecedented.” ....
                    Last edited by Merlin; 06 May 09,, 04:46.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by zraver View Post
                      Nice to know the F-15 and F-16 are mutton. The fact is techwise Iran is the most advanced likely US adversary since the fall of the USSR. Its also the first real enemy to have the ability to threaten US carriers and regional bases with more than harassment. It also occupies the strategic heights as it were. Iran isn't Iraq or Serbia. If War comes Iran has the tools to make a real issue of the survival of any USN assets inside the gulf, the survival of the fleet base at Bahrain and the army/USMC forces in Iraq plus of course the survival of the worlds economy.
                      F15A/B and F16A/B arnet exactly the latest and greatest. You cant look at a block 52 Falcon or an F15E and draw comparisons between that and what those planes where when they first hit production. Send up a flght of 4 of the latest Falcons against 12 of the originals and more than likelly the 12 wouldnt even make it into WVR combat. The Iranians have not had the opportunity to upgrade their toys to the level the US has and most importantly their best toys came out of your factories. When you know how to make them you know how to break them too.

                      Iran is a one punch wonder conventionally. If they are able to gain strategic suprise they can definatelly cause major headaches to the US at first. Afterwards though i dont see the problem as once they reveal their missile launch sites they get turned to grease spots, same goes for their naval bases and and other hidden infrastructure they could use to suprise the US.

                      Iran can give you a bloody nose if you let them but noones ever died of a bloody nose. The revenge for that bloody nost though most probably would be fatal.

                      Irans major advantages are that a) if you invade they can call a whole can of jihadi whoopass on you around the world and b) 80 million mad Persians wanting to go to Allah and take down as many infidels as they can with them. It will make Iraq look like a holiday retreat.

                      Thing is both those options can only really be exercised if the US actually invades in which case it would have been a criminally stupid mistake and the gallows would be required for whatever politician signed off on it.

                      As for Iran being the most dangerous adversary i really doubt that. Yes it is out of the smaller guys but even if you call Russia a friend (wich it isnt) then it still leaves China. I would rather fight 3 Irans at once with a North Korea, a Sudan and an Afghanistan thrown in for good measure than 1 China.
                      The best part of repentance is the sin

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Nice to know the F-15 and F-16 are mutton. The fact is techwise Iran is the most advanced likely US adversary since the fall of the USSR. Its also the first real enemy to have the ability to threaten US carriers and regional bases with more than harassment. It also occupies the strategic heights as it were. Iran isn't Iraq or Serbia. If War comes Iran has the tools to make a real issue of the survival of any USN assets inside the gulf, the survival of the fleet base at Bahrain and the army/USMC forces in Iraq plus of course the survival of the worlds economy.
                        I don't think Iran is much of a threat to the USN... I believe they do have the capability to severely disrupt oil shipments in the Gulf, as well as the obvious in stirring up a hornet's nest in Iraq. Except for the threat posed by their long-range missiles against USN assets, their tech level is crap. "Most advanced likely US adversary"... besides terrorist organizations, they're the only likely US adversary. Now I certainly can't claim expertise (and I don't think you can either), but the fact is we have a larger naval presence in the Gulf than they have a... naval presence period. I'd expect that if it were to hit the fan their military infrastructure along the Gulf would be obliterated within a 48-hour time period. I think 1 US carrier is more than a match for the IrAF.
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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