Something cooking in Kashmir ...

[ghatotkacha]

Looks like something is cooking in Kashmir ... reports suggesting Taliban may have infiltrated along with regular kashmiri terrorists ... major gunbattles going on in multiple locations ...


more details ...
Gurez intercepts suggest possible Taliban link

This particular news is eerily reminiscent of the initial days of the Kargil war ..
War-like situation in 8 places of J&K

J&K infiltrations are unusual:Chidambaram

[chankya]

Looks like something is cooking in Kashmir ... reports suggesting Taliban may have infiltrated along with regular kashmiri terrorists ... major gunbattles going on in multiple locations ...


more details ...
Gurez intercepts suggest possible Taliban link

This particular news is eerily reminiscent of the initial days of the Kargil war ..
War-like situation in 8 places of J&K

J&K infiltrations are unusual:Chidambaram

Firstly there is no such beast as a regular kashmiri terrorist. The last of that breed died with the JKLF. For the last several years its mostly been foreign Pak Army trained chaps. The Taliban is just another alphabet soup in the mix.

More interesting to me is, what does the government intend to do about it? If the Americans can't restrain the Pakistanis, will we finally go across?

Is the US aid conditional upon no terror support on both sides of pakistan or only A'stan?

[Deltacamelately]

America has hardly any military stuff in PoK, thus a sledgehammer response on the terror concentrations within PoK is definitely a rational alternative instead of surgical strikes on Pakistan's key installations. Whether GoI has the political willingness to use the armed forces as a tool for attaining such political ends is a question.

[chankya]

America has hardly any military stuff in PoK, thus a sledgehammer response on the terror concentrations within PoK is definitely a rational alternative instead of surgical strikes on Pakistan's key installations. Whether GoI has the political willingness to use the armed forces as a tool for attaining such political ends is a question.

I've always been under the impression that the GoI was avoiding war while trying to build up the economy and watch as Pakistan dies of self inflicted wounds. That of course also presupposes that Pak sponsored terrorism is restricted to Kashmir.

Now that they've started hitting financial hubs the second assumption is no longer valid. It is now a direct threat to the Indian economy. Also the US keeps pumping in money into Pakistan keeping it just about alive so the first assumption is questionable too.

Right now we have half a chance of catching up with China in a couple of decades. A war will push us back by a decade in the least and probably end any hope of that. Eventually that is the mid-long game. Pakistan is a minor problem on the way. The question therefore is one of which sets us back more. Pakistan based terrorism or a war?

War is not a guarantee of future peace either. If the last few wars are anything to go by, we'll just give back land on the assurances of a leader who'll promptly be toppled by a coup and all promises forgotten.

As interesting is the question of what the US end game is. What do they want from the region? Do they see themselves supplanting Chinese influence in Pakistan? Like it or not $7.5B in aid, a massive portion of which will no doubt be funneled into fauji enterprises or directly into the Pak Army, will have an adverse impact on Indian security. Are they truly under the impression that a few more schools in Pakistan will help anyone? Perhaps they overlook that the textbooks will remain the same and they'll continue preaching the same hate. But hey, they'll reach a few thousand more.

Will it stiffen Pakistani resolve? If they won't fight the Talibs while under an existential threat then they won't fight for $7.5B more either.

[Cactus]

More interesting to me is, what does the government intend to do about it? If the Americans can't restrain the Pakistanis, will we finally go across?

Got a plan to deal with the nukes? :( Crossing over is not really an option for India until it can make a quantum leap in certain defensive technologies. Your best option now is to buy lots and lots of cheap Chinese UAVs and RC planes and do as others do (which is apparently and demonstrably below the Pakistani hair's-breadth high nuclear threshold :))). Or you can resign yourself to the fact that this kind of dirty-war is going to be your future, join yourself into it, and fight to win.

[Deltacamelately]

Pakistan could collapse within 6 months: US expert
Mail Today Bureau
New Delhi, April 7, 2009

A leading counter-terrorism expert and an adviser to the current United States administration said on Monday that Pakistan is on the verge of internal collapse within six months.

David Kilcullen was quoted by The New York Times as saying thus in a news analysis on how the US is losing time in pressuring Pakistan into defeating the insurgency that has plagued the nation and killed hundreds of civilians in the last year alone.

This is not the first time that Kilcullen, the author of the influential counter- terrorism book The Accidental Guerrilla, has slammed Pakistan and its inability to fight militancy. Kilcullen is a former special adviser on counterinsurgency to the US secretary of state and US Central Command chief General David Petraeus.

In a statement given to the powerful US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in February this year, he said, “A powerful faction within the Pakistani national security establishment (some elements of the Army, and parts of the intelligence service) persists in sponsoring extremists such as the Afghan Taliban, and tolerating terrorists like Al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba… We must either reduce their motivation (by reforming the military or convincing it that state collapse and extremist takeover, not war with India, is the real threat) or reduce the power of the national- security state to continue its sponsorship and tolerance of extremism, or both.” He also stated that to achieve this, the US would have to enter into a strategic security partnership with India as one of the main regional players.

“We (must) move our relationship with Pakistan away from a transactional basis and assuage Pakistan’s fear of abandonment. This, in turn, requires that we involve regional actors — primarily India, but also Iran and China — in viable regional security arrangements.” Kilcullen is not alone in what is fast becoming a trend in Washington — to issue dire warnings on Pakistan and its possible collapse. A February 2009 report on Pakistan authored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry and former Senator Chuck Hagel prepared for The Atlantic Council is damning.

It said, “This report sounds the alarm that we are running out of time to help Pakistan change its present course towards increasing economic and political instability, and even ultimate failure. The urgency of action has been brought home by the terrorist attacks in Mumbai that set Pakistan and India on a collision course.” Evidently, the US is getting increasingly jittery about the political, economic and security stability of Pakistan. In a testimony to the US Senate Armed Services Committee last week, General Petraeus, the architect of the US surge in Iraq, said that the insurgency could “take down” Pakistan.

It is not difficult to find reasons for this, The New York Times analysis said. “Even before the insurgency has been fully engaged, however, many Pakistanis have concluded that reaching an accommodation with the militants is preferable to fighting them. Some, including mid-ranking soldiers, choose to see the militants not as the enemy, but as fellow Muslims who are deserving of greater sympathy than are the American aims.” The news analysis also quoted Ishaq Khan Khakwani, a former senator from the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) as saying India’s increasing presence in Afghanistan in terms of building roads and erecting two consulates close to the border with Pakistan is provocative.

“The US has to get India to back off in Afghanistan,” he told The New York Times . “Then Pakistan will see Indian interference is diminished and that will give confidence to Pakistan.” But first, according to Gen. Petraeus, the US must build trust with Pakistan. In the testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the general said, “All of this (trust) in Pakistan begins with them embracing the idea that the biggest threat to their country’s very existence is the internal extremist threat rather than the threat to their east (India)… the metrics needs to be measures of their commitment to truly go after this threat that could literally take down their state, if it’s allowed to creep out and to grow.” His naval colleague, Admiral Eric Olson who is also the commander of the Special Operations Command said India’s presence plays a crucial role in stabilising Pakistan. In a testimony to the US Congress, he said, “It’s important to recognise the capabilities of the Pakistani military were built to address the threat they felt from India — that’s primarily a conventional army focused to the east.” However, it is easier said than done, according to Kilcullen. In his testimony, he said, “Our preferred option would always be to respect Pakistani sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to deal with terrorists by helping the Pakistani government gain control of its own national- security agencies, its territory and its population… (But) In those limited areas where Pakistan has proven unable or unwilling to establish government control the international community would still need to reserve the right to unilaterally strike terrorist targets.” This is the critical year, he added.

Courtesy: Mail Today
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.p...nid=4&Itemid=1

God Speed.

[Kommunist]

Something cooking in Islamabad as well.

Terror alert in Islamabad: US embassy closed
10 Apr 2009, 1040 hrs IST, PTI

ISLAMABAD: The United States' embassy here suspended visa and routine consular services today due to ‘heightened security' measures taken after the Pakistani administration declared a terror alert in the capital, a spokesman said. ( Watch )

The embassy will provide emergency consular services for Americans and the routine operations will resume on Monday. The US consulates in Lahore, Karachi and Peshawar would be open on Friday, the spokesman said.

The spokesman did not give details about the security concerns but the move appeared to be linked to heightened security across Pakistan on the occasion of Good Friday.

The Pakistani capital has also been targeted in a recent series of terrorist attacks, with a suicide bomber killing eight security personnel at a paramilitary camp in the heart of the city on April 4.

A statement issued by the US embassy said staff should be careful while travelling to public places, restaurants and hotels due to "serious security threats" to American citizens.

Offices of several international donor organisations in Islamabad would also remain closed today due to security threats, reports said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/W...ow/4382283.cms

[Merlin]

Pakistan could collapse within 6 months: US expert

A leading counter-terrorism expert and an adviser to the current United States administration said on Monday that Pakistan is on the verge of internal collapse within six months. ...

Richard Holbrooke has better come up with something fast and good for Obama and Biden to decide and act.

[Merlin]

The Talibans and the Al Qaeda leaders have to plan for alternative territorial bases in case they have to move away from the tribal areas in between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

For the Al Qaeda groups, Somalia can be an alternative. They had been there. It is a failed state with virtually no government control outside the capital. But it is not ideal for the Talibans.

Thus the Kashmiri mountainous lands in between Pakistan and India, as well as Afghanistan seem a better alternative for both.

These below are talking about them moving from J-K into India.

Level of threat to India high: Chidambaram

11 Apr 2009 [TimesIndia] NEW DELHI: Home minister P Chidambaram said on Friday that four terrorist organisations — Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Jamat-ul-Mujahideen and Hizbul Mujahideen — were earlier operating separately but had come together now.

“We .. have to ... remain on high alert because four organisations are working in concert. That means the level of threat is pretty high,” he told the TV channel. ...

J-K Cop Warns of Talibans Moving Closer to India

Apr 4, 2009 New Delhi: The Taliban is moving closer to India's borders, warns Jammu and Kashmir Police chief.

Jammu and Kashmir Director General of Police Kuldeep Khuda has told CNN-IBN that there has been a spurt in infiltration after Taliban gained control of Swat Valley and in parts of North West Frontier Province in Pakistan. ...

[chankya]

Got a plan to deal with the nukes? :( Crossing over is not really an option for India until it can make a quantum leap in certain defensive technologies. Your best option now is to buy lots and lots of cheap Chinese UAVs and RC planes and do as others do (which is apparently and demonstrably below the Pakistani hair's-breadth high nuclear threshold :))). Or you can resign yourself to the fact that this kind of dirty-war is going to be your future, join yourself into it, and fight to win.

"initiative" is an important component of war, politics or anything else for that matter. You can't and shouldn't respond to an enemy's escalation at the same level.

Ideally if they hit the economy(via terrorism), we go over. If they nuke us, any retaliatory nuclear exchange will pretty much finish Pakistan or any future state(s) occupying those geographical boundaries to the dust bin for the next few decades.

Dirty war is the resort of choice for people who don't want to fight conventional wars. I see no reason to fight to an enemy's strength. India should fight conventional.

You bring up the issue of nukes. I look at Pakistan(or more precisiely the only entity that matters in Pakistan, the PA) as a corporate entity. It's sole purpose being the furthering of its own privileges and by extension the privileges accruing to its members. Everything else is power play. India is important as an ever present threat because that ensures the importance of the PA. Why would they want to end this game?
(If I was feeling really snarky I'd have added that the PA as a fighting force is a dismal failure. They lose wars to organised armies and now are managing to lose to disorganized talibunnies. Why would they even want to fight? Fortunately I'm in a good mood and won't mention all that. )

Let us say that you look at it as an ideological entity bent on only furthering Islam. Even so the organisation must survive to further the cause.

Perhaps you've heard of the saying "na rahega baas, na bajege bansuri"?
No Pakistani state means No PA. And that is an assured result of any nuclear exchange involving Pakistan.

That being so the only reason for Pakistan to go nuclear is a use it or lose it situation when Pakistan(or atleast Punjab) is in danger of being completely overrun. So let's go everywhere else but Punjab. Sindh? POK? Why not?

[chankya]

Addressing the original question: taliban in Pakistan doesn't matter a damn to us. If they fight the Indian Army conventionally they'll be smashed. If they fight a LIC then it'll be as it is now.