Bets on Syria?

[Double Edge]

Because there is no guarantee that the next Syrian adminstration will not want the Golan back ?

[Mihais]

Point taken.There's something I forgot before.Iran and Russia made their moves in support of Assad.I wonder how the Israelis will do it.Right now,they have as much interest as Iran not to see Assad toppled.That may be the most important reason NATO won't move a finger.

I'm not expecting anything to show up from the Israeli side on the matter,though.

[astralis]

mihais,

There is no way in hell NATO will attack Assad,because we might see how S300's with Russian crews in Syrian uniform can fight.

i do not think NATO will intervene either, but OTOH i -highly- doubt we will see russian crews on S300s. far too inflammatory, for too little gain. russia would know that if NATO intervenes that means assad is dead meat, with or without covert russian involvement.

[cyppok]

A base in the mediteranean sea ;)

The relationship dates back to the soviet era.

Syria is important because it keeps the balance of power between Turkey and Iran in the region. Syria and Iraq if they fall and are partitioned will shift the balance of power. Basically imagine if both states are less independent and are de-facto under 'guidence' of Turkey and Iran respectively, both countries could project power further and have more leverage with countries beyond their borders.

The shift from Syria being pro Iran and Iraq semi-pro Turkey (out of their own self interests to keep their leverage as independent nations up) to Syria becoming pro Turkey and Iraq pro Iran (in essence client states) changes dynamics in the region. Think about possible future bases in the region on Syrian soil for Nato or even Turkey and the power projection capabilities.

Russia cares because the more religious regimes in Iraq and Syria would fund more groups in the Caucases/Central Asia while making it appealing for Turkey to do the same. To some degree the shift in Iraq and Syria(if it happens) would go from more secular nationalists to religious forces whom would be less pragmatic externally.

[citanon]

And why Syria is so important to Russia in your opinion?

Ask yourself this, after Syria falls, what's next?

[Double Edge]

What's up with the Russian's buddy-buddy response here in Syria? It seems to me that they have something that they want which wasn't so in Libya.

A base in the mediteranean sea ;)

The relationship dates back to the soviet era.

[NUS]

Libya wasn't that important to Russia.

And why Syria is so important to Russia in your opinion?

[Red Team]

Why is that men like this just cannot step down after decades of rule and do whats best for the people he ruled albeit by his own rule without destroying everything in the country of having so many lives lost to see who is more determined to rule their lives.

Greed.

What I'm curious about is what Israel is going to do in the coming months...I suppose Mossad "encouragement" towards Assad's demise isn't too far fetched?

[Mihais]

Libya wasn't that important to Russia.

I'll be very curious to see how this goes on.Israel and Iran are allies of convenience here.,both in league with the Russians.The Iranians already sent men to help Assad.Now the Russians made their move.There is no way in hell NATO will attack Assad,because we might see how S300's with Russian crews in Syrian uniform can fight.

[Dreadnought]

There's been a few developments in this theatre recently.

- The Turks do not have any objections to intervening in Syria if necessary.

- Some of Libya's opposition fighters as well as weapons are being offered to strengthen the Syrian 'resistance'.

- The Russians are deploying their warships to the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russians are opposing the arms embargo on Syria and have not ruled out arming Syria with Russian weapons and have supplied them with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

Russia does not want an intervention in Syria, either that or they want to make it expensive.

But yet they saw no real problem with Libya and Syria has the very same problem. A "dick" tator that refuses to recognize the rights of the Syrian people.

Why is that men like this just cannot step down after decades of rule and do whats best for the people he ruled albeit by his own rule without destroying everything in the country of having so many lives lost to see who is more determined to rule their lives.

[mustavaris]

Syria is not oil rich. They export modest amounts of oil and need gas imports. Production rates of oil have been in decline for 15 years or so-

[Red Team]

There's been a few developments in this theatre recently.

- The Turks do not have any objections to intervening in Syria if necessary.

- Some of Libya's opposition fighters as well as weapons are being offered to strengthen the Syrian 'resistance'.

- The Russians are deploying their warships to the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russians are opposing the arms embargo on Syria and have not ruled out arming Syria with Russian weapons and have supplied them with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

Russia does not want an intervention in Syria, either that or they want to make it expensive.

What's up with the Russian's buddy-buddy response here in Syria? It seems to me that they have something that they want which wasn't so in Libya. But in either case, money on Assad's downfall during the first half of next year. Russia may be persistent, but if they do get involved, NATO can be pretty persistent too, especially involving all that oil.

But in that situation one can't help but fear an inadvertent explosion of hostilities...

[mustavaris]

My uneducated guess.

Ass-as falls, but not too soon and not before things get dirty. The Salafi radicals instigate violence against Christian/Shiia/Allawi minorities who face the worst during the worsening turmoil. The Iranians think about saving Assad, but most likely do not have the balls to send IRGC in. It would also devastate their credibility as they protested the KSA backed Bahraini operations against the unpleased majority. Turks may be leading the Arab League supported peacekeeping mission while there won´t be much peace to keep, but a lot of disturbance to suppress. If the Turks are left out, or do not want to mess with this issue, whoever goes in, will most likely fail. Turks are only ones who have skills, balls and equipment/troops to take care of this. All of the others lack one or more of the relevant factors.

[Double Edge]

There's been a few developments in this theatre recently.

- The Turks do not have any objections to intervening in Syria if necessary.

- Some of Libya's opposition fighters as well as weapons are being offered to strengthen the Syrian 'resistance'.

- The Russians are deploying their warships to the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russians are opposing the arms embargo on Syria and have not ruled out arming Syria with Russian weapons and have supplied them with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

Russia does not want an intervention in Syria, either that or they want to make it expensive.

[Mihais]

The Tolerant Dictator: Syria's Christians Side with Assad Out of Fear - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

What will happen with this people if/when ''democracy'' wins,is quite an easy guess.