This is based on a comment I saw from an ME expert. If someone has seen any articles that speak to what I'm discussing please post them. Below are just some observations that may or may not be factually correct or supportable. please chip in any useful comments.
The issue here is the broader impact of these revolutions on the idea of radical Islam as an agent of revolution in the muslim world.
Since the late 1970s a revolutionary brand of Islam has been increasingly successful in selling itself as the answer to the problems of Islamic societies. The failure of secular nationalist/leftist governments to provide freedom & prosperity to most in the muslim world and the collapse of Communism left the field open for a differnt revolutionary ideology - revolutionary Islam. It has been so succesful that even people who might not normally be disposed to support its radical ideas have become co-opted.
It seems that the current moment in the Arab world provies a potential counter to that idea. A series of essentially secular nationalist uprisings have already unseated 2 dictators & may be about to do in a third. Others have been forced into compromise. In a few short weeks these relatively disorganised secular revolutionaries have achievements that nearly rival those of three decades of violent islamic relolutionaries, but with a fraction the cost. Suddenly the 'al-Qaeda' option is not the only option on the table for those seeking to battle tyrants & radically transform their societies.
Revolutionary Islam certainly isn't going to slink away & die. It is here to stay, but now it has competition. Can these movements undermine the appeal of revolutionary islam in the longer term? Can the new crop of young heroes supplant the likes of OBL among those hoping to transform their societies?
I am going to take the optimistic line & say that this can be a transformative moment. There is a caveat, however. It was the failure of the nationalists of the 50s-70s that opened the way for islamic revolutionaries. if these revolutions are co-opted by the powerful, if the hopes for democracy fail, if these societies go the way of Belarus or Russia (or god forbid Yugoslavia) rather than Poland or the former Czecholsovakia then I see a huge new opportunity for AQ & friends. If this hope turns bitter then the current problems we have with Islamic radicalism will look like a kids party.
Lets hope western governments put aside 'realpolitik' & America stops viewing the ME through the Israel lens in favour of ensuring that freedom flourishes. Our governmetns have to accept that in the long term a troublesome democracy is much preferable to a friendly dictatorship. In this respect I fear the influence of China. The last thing we need is Beijing supporting a new crop of autocrats in an attempt to extend its influence.
Lets hope that in 10 or 20 years time we look back on this moment as the start of something positive, rather than a lost opportunity.
The issue here is the broader impact of these revolutions on the idea of radical Islam as an agent of revolution in the muslim world.
Since the late 1970s a revolutionary brand of Islam has been increasingly successful in selling itself as the answer to the problems of Islamic societies. The failure of secular nationalist/leftist governments to provide freedom & prosperity to most in the muslim world and the collapse of Communism left the field open for a differnt revolutionary ideology - revolutionary Islam. It has been so succesful that even people who might not normally be disposed to support its radical ideas have become co-opted.
It seems that the current moment in the Arab world provies a potential counter to that idea. A series of essentially secular nationalist uprisings have already unseated 2 dictators & may be about to do in a third. Others have been forced into compromise. In a few short weeks these relatively disorganised secular revolutionaries have achievements that nearly rival those of three decades of violent islamic relolutionaries, but with a fraction the cost. Suddenly the 'al-Qaeda' option is not the only option on the table for those seeking to battle tyrants & radically transform their societies.
Revolutionary Islam certainly isn't going to slink away & die. It is here to stay, but now it has competition. Can these movements undermine the appeal of revolutionary islam in the longer term? Can the new crop of young heroes supplant the likes of OBL among those hoping to transform their societies?
I am going to take the optimistic line & say that this can be a transformative moment. There is a caveat, however. It was the failure of the nationalists of the 50s-70s that opened the way for islamic revolutionaries. if these revolutions are co-opted by the powerful, if the hopes for democracy fail, if these societies go the way of Belarus or Russia (or god forbid Yugoslavia) rather than Poland or the former Czecholsovakia then I see a huge new opportunity for AQ & friends. If this hope turns bitter then the current problems we have with Islamic radicalism will look like a kids party.
Lets hope western governments put aside 'realpolitik' & America stops viewing the ME through the Israel lens in favour of ensuring that freedom flourishes. Our governmetns have to accept that in the long term a troublesome democracy is much preferable to a friendly dictatorship. In this respect I fear the influence of China. The last thing we need is Beijing supporting a new crop of autocrats in an attempt to extend its influence.
Lets hope that in 10 or 20 years time we look back on this moment as the start of something positive, rather than a lost opportunity.
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