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So when all these are done, how's the map for the Middle East/North Africa looking?

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  • So when all these are done, how's the map for the Middle East/North Africa looking?

    Not so much in actual borders, but more the countries' friends, enemies, allies, surrogates, etc.

    All opinion of course as nothing but guesswork can be done here.

  • #2
    It's very difficult to answer the way you phrased it. What instead if we look at the previous status quo and then work out how it can be preserved or alternatives created to work around, given thats what the biggest worry is. From here

    Since the entire United States security architecture in the Middle East was crafted to rest on countries like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Sheikhdoms, their uncertain political future and questionable stability because of Arab World's politically infectious upheavals, poses a strategic challenge to United States leadership and diplomacy.
    This means the key countries that matter are Egypt, Jordan, the Saudis and the other gulf states.

    The question is a bit premature because so far the gulf countries with the exception of Bahrain seem to be in control. Jordan is quiet. Only Egypt is in the air but can be managed. What the remaining gulf countries have to do is be prepared to announce reforms in a credible way or offer more financial sops to offset any unrest. If successful then all the Gulf stays safe.

    Jordan's a wildcard, will it go up or not and for what reasons.

    However, it needs to be recorded that any transformed strategies so devised must factor-in the emerging reality that this Arab World upheaval under way is not driven by Islamist forces or ideology.

    On available indicators and reckoning, the 'Arab Awakening' seems to be impelled by a popular upsurge seeking political freedoms, economic uplift and social equitability from decades of oppression by US-favored despotic Arab regimes. If this impelling force is correctly read by the United States and Israel, it could greatly help both to transform their existing policy postulations in the Middle East and also transform the overall political profile which is helpful in promoting a stable Middle East security environment conducive to Israel's security.
    This is crucial as it implies that these countries won't suddenly turn hostile to US or Israel. As is the manner in which both deal with it.

    Scope therefore exists for the United States to radically transform its military-oriented strategies and an effort which needs to be supplemented by Israel, in bringing about and contributing to the political and economic transformation of the Arab World. In short the United States and Israel's long term strategies should synergize with the Arab World's political and economic awakening.

    This approach could hopefully lead to shaping Israel's security environment in a manner where Israel's Arab neighbors emerge at peace with themselves and at peace with Israel and its right to exist as a sovereign nation-state.
    If this bit is done properly by both the US & Israel then there wil be more friends than enemies.

    What's curious in this whole affair is the similar positions of both Iran & the US -- tongue tied :)

    Iran is cheering on what it calls people's revolution but in reality is hoping all US-backed regimes topple. At the same time can't say too much or have to deal with the same at home.

    The US can't say too much either as it looks like its supporting regimes whose citizens dislike or that its not protecting allies enough and allowing them to topple.

    Iran will want to influence events in her favour and it will be upto the others to prevent that. But cash is tight for the Iranians so I wonder how much they can do there.


    • #3
      As expected, Saudis moving to pre-empt any potential unrest.

      Notice how they target the (18-35) age group, the one most likely to commit crimes

      On Tuesday, the Saudi government announced a new wave of benefits for its citizens. For the first time, the government agreed to establish unemployment allowances up to one year to help Saudis find jobs. University students studying abroad at their own expense will now receive scholarships. SR 1 billion ($266.6 million) has been added to the social welfare rolls. SR 14 billion ($3.7 billion) will be available for home loans. The government also announced Tuesday that it is setting aside SR 10 million ($2.6 million) to fund literary clubs and licensed NGOs.
      Why Saudi Arabia is a Step Ahead, and the Reasons it Won’t Fall
      Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Feb 11,, 17:04.