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Chances of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherood taking power?

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  • Chances of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherood taking power?

    Much talk and speculation in recent days in regards to Egypt has focused on the prospect that the Muslim Brotherhood could gain power, at least in the American media. I was wondering how much truth and possibility there is of this happening politically in Egypt? As from what I understand the Muslim Brotherhood was the main opposition to the Mubarak Regime, and even if an election were held today in the country they would get a very high proportion of votes if not a plurality or majority. Additionally, Egypt is a more conservative and politically complicated with much more history behind it then the situation then Tunisia is.

    However, there are very strong factors against the Brotherhood taking power including the fact that no matter how reformist Egypt's new government may be(which may not be much given the fact that they come from the same military clique Mubarak did). I can't see them allowing a political entity like the Muslim Brotherhood come to power should elections be held. Also, in the mean time between now and should elections happen the prospect of other political groups(for better or worse) is quite possible given how radically political in Egypt are received by many to have changed.

    So what does everyone think?

  • #2
    The media says the MB has the support of 30% of the Egyptian public. A rep for the MB said it was near 50% if elections aren't riggged. There's a double entendre in there. If they get less they will claim the elections were rigged.

    I think the idea that the MB can win is mubarak-era thinking. We are now in the post-mubarak era. And the MB isn't the only alternative to his regime.

    Therefore if ppl have real choice the story should be different as there will be alternatives to choose from. If they have elections they should have intl monitors so it can be shown to have been conducted in as transparent a manner as possible.

    Baradei has countered the perception of the MB portrayed in the press, i'm not sure to what extent he's being an opportunist there or whether its genuine. These ppl have just fought one regime, they aren't going to settle for another military or religious one.

    What was the role of the MB in this current uprising ? Not identifiable AFAICT. That means they are on the same playing field as the other parties.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Feb 11,, 22:35.

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    • #3
      You mean faux news not the American media don't you? I'd say at the end of the day who takes power will be they that take the majority in the Sept elections or the people will be in the street again. Myself, I trust a democratic goverment will represent the universal desires, a full belly, a roof and hope for the future.
      Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.
      ~Ronald Reagan

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      • #4
        The answer here is that we don't really know the answer. Measures of support under Mubarak may or may not be reliable. What we do know is that the MB are the largest & best organized opposition party in Egypt. We also know that whatever we think when we see 'Muslim' in the name of a political party, a good many people in the Muslim world see something positive - 'clean' government, morality, working for the poor etc. We are also unsure at this point just where power will reside in the new governmental structure. I'm assuming we will have new elections for Parliament plus the scheduled Presidential election. How will power be shared between the two institutions?

        One of the big questions is what happens to the support base for Mubarak's old party. Are there diehards who will stick with it? Where will the rest go? Will they spread around or head in a particular direction? I'm not sure how the NDP worked. If it was just a patronage machine then some of its poorer supporters might go MB. at this point everything is up in the air.
        sigpic

        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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        • #5
          The MB are not taking control of the country.

          The US has signficant influence with the army there. The army is in charge there now and the former regime seems to have transitioned quite peacefully in the grand scheme of things. There's a $billion up for grabs for good behaviour which any future elected govt would seriously consider.

          Now had there been no influence in that country things would be different :)

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            The MB are not taking control of the country.

            The US has signficant influence with the army there. The army is in charge there now and the former regime seems to have transitioned quite peacefully in the grand scheme of things. There's a $billion up for grabs for good behaviour which any future elected govt would seriously consider.

            Now had there been no influence in that country things would be different :)
            Armies can't vote beyond the individuals in them.

            If the Muslim Brotherhood has designs on power and the U.S. are unpopular with your on-the-street Egyptians, it's in the MB's interests to draw a lot of attention to the army's relationship with the U.S.

            I don't know what'll happen, but when power vacuums occur throughout history, they don't typically go to the virtuous, they go to the Machiavellian.

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            • #7
              Most likely the MB will win some seats in the new legislature. How many they win will determine the number of ministerial portfolios they'll get. With 30% support they would do well. Against a fragmented political scene, they would do even better.
              To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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              • #8
                I wrote in the "Endgame in Egypt" thread..............." Sorry, I cant help but have a bad feeling about this"......................... I wrote that due to the unpredictable, complicated politics of the middle east,............ I still have the same feeling about the eventual outcome.
                sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

                Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                  Armies can't vote beyond the individuals in them.
                  This depends on how much power the Army relinquishes to the civilians. In the other thread, steve cook mentioned there isn't any force acting on them to do more than necessary. US has influence with the army. I'm unsure how that will sit with the ppl itself. Will they demand more from the army or be content.

                  Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                  If the Muslim Brotherhood has designs on power and the U.S. are unpopular with your on-the-street Egyptians, it's in the MB's interests to draw a lot of attention to the army's relationship with the U.S.
                  They can do that but the other parties are trying to bring back Mubarak's stashed money abroad. They will use anti-corruption as part of their platform. There will be incentives offered by the US & others for good behaviour. What the Egyptians need most right now is money. The party that can bring in the most wins. Everybody knows this.

                  That's strike #2 against the MB.

                  Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                  I don't know what'll happen, but when power vacuums occur throughout history, they don't typically go to the virtuous, they go to the Machiavellian.
                  Who says the MB is the best at this game ? All the MB has going for them is they are a religious party, what else ?

                  Egypt needs its economy fixed, not more religion, Mubarak did not really stand in the way of that.

                  There are many examples but in Eastern Europe only Belarus ended up with a dictator. It can go either way but my feeling is that it will be positive in Egypt. Its too important not to. Then the other arab countries will watch. If things improve in Egypt afer suffcient time has passed then the pressure on those Arab leaders will increase.

                  So what is the best outcome here ? Do those Arab leaders try to throw more money at the MB than the west can at other parties in the hope things do not work out in Egypt and they get a longer lease of life.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Feb 11,, 21:59.

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                  • #10
                    The only thing most of Israel is thinking of is will the peace treaty still stand? That, and to a lesser extent the gas pipeline from Egypt
                    Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                    Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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                    • #11
                      There are no outstanding territorial disputes between Egypt & Israel. The Egyptian ppl might be proud of Mubarak's role in the '73 war but they were fed up of him in the end. It would appear that Israel is pretty far down the list in terms of priorities in Egpyt at the moment.

                      Is it in Egypt's interest not to honor the treaty and lose out on western incentives as well as lose out on transit fees for the oil pipeline ?

                      The army has not said anything detrimental here AFAIK. Any force that does want that will have to take over the army first.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Feb 11,, 22:09.

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                      • #12
                        The Army has pledged to keep the treaty with Israel. Ask an Egyptian on the street what's more important to him: $2 Billion from the US, or Israel wiped off the map. Be interesting to see the answers you'll get...
                        Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                        Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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                        • #13
                          Does it only cost $2billion to wipe Israel of the map

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                          • #14
                            Egypt gets half the amount of aid that Israel gets from the US as an carrot part of the peace treaty. Israel currently gets ~$4.2 billion, so Egypt gets ~$2 billion. If Egypt drops the treaty, they also drop an annual $2 billion
                            Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                            Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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                            • #15
                              Yeah, that was in the good old days. Now in addition, there's prolly gonna be loans with cushy terms to build the country back up from vested interests.

                              So there is a lot more than $2 billion at stake. The chance for Egyptians to get their lives back on track and its been overdue due for more than fifty years now.

                              War seems like shooting themselves in the foot in comparison. They tried three times already.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Feb 11,, 22:56.

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