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  • In Turkey’s Example, Some See Map for Egypt

    Was thinking something in that line just few days ago. This is NYT's take on it.



    February 5, 2011
    In Turkey’s Example, Some See Map for Egypt
    By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

    As Egypt struggles to reinvent itself, many experts in the region say that it might look to Turkey for some valuable lessons.

    Arriving at a template that effectively integrates Islam, democracy and vibrant economics has been a near-impossible dream for Middle East reformers stretching back decades. To a large extent, Egypt’s inability to accommodate these three themes lies at the root of its current plight.

    But no country in the region has come closer to accomplishing this trick, warts and all, than Turkey. As a result, diplomats and analysts have begun to present the still-incomplete Turkish experiment as a possible road map for Egypt.

    “Turkey is the envy of the Arab world,” said Hugh Pope, project director for the Turkish office of the International Crisis Group. “It has moved to a robust democracy, has a genuinely elected leader who seems to speak for the popular mood, has products that are popular from Afghanistan to Morocco — including dozens of sitcoms dubbed into Arabic that are on TV sets everywhere — and an economy that is worth about half of the whole Arab world put together.”

    The idea is not new. President Obama’s first trip as president to a Muslim country was to Turkey in April 2009, and he hailed its progress as a Middle East model. (His visit there preceded his better-remembered speech in Cairo by two months.)

    Since then, the already wide distance separating these countries has grown. Turkey’s economy and its internationally competitive companies are expanding at a relentless pace. Meanwhile, its mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seems on a path to win his third election in a row, having effectively neutered a once-all-powerful military apparatus long seen as the guardian of secularism in the country.

    It has not always been this way.

    Indeed, when Hosni Mubarak came to power in Egypt in October 1981, after the assassination of President Anwar el-Sadat, Turkey was still being governed by its army, which one year earlier intervened to impose a sense of order on the country’s fractious political scene.

    But while Mr. Mubarak, a military man himself, banked upon authoritarian rule, paying only lip service to democratic institutions and running rigged elections, the general behind the Turkish coup, Kenan Evren, moved to withdraw from politics. The constitution he imposed left the military considerable scope to meddle in political affairs, but it allowed civilian institutions to bloom.

    On the economic front Egypt maintained state control, with many restrictions on foreign trade and domestic competition. By contrast, Turkey, which hopes to join the European Union, has opened up its economy and unleashed a dynamic private sector.

    Today, with similarly sized populations of about 80 million, Turkey has an economy that is nearly four times the size of Egypt’s.

    Its recent growth spurt has been driven by Mr. Erdogan, who came to power in 2003 and focused first on reducing deficits and bringing down inflation. Only after he demonstrated success in raising living standards did he feel confident enough to overcome opposition from the determinedly secular army and the cosmopolitan elite in Istanbul by introducing elements of Islam into Turkish public life.

    He has been rewarded with broad popular support at home — demonstrated in September when Mr. Erdogan easily won a referendum that further diluted the military’s powers — and growing influence abroad.

    In responding to the Egypt crisis, President Obama telephoned Prime Minister Erdogan twice in six days to discuss the unfolding events, and administration officials say they have been keeping in close contact with their Turkish counterparts at all levels.

    “There’s no question that Turkey can play a role,” one administration official said. The official, speaking on grounds of anonymity, noted that Mr. Erdogan and Turkish leaders had publicly called for Mr. Mubarak to listen to what the protesters on the streets of Cairo had been saying — words that might have heartened democracy advocates in the Muslim world.

    Turkey’s ability to thrive as a predominantly Muslim country that maintains diplomatic relations — though chilly — with Israel is one that American officials would like to see other Muslim nations develop.

    But it is also true that actions taken by the Erdogan government against the Turkish news media have been a cause for some concern, a point made recently by the new American ambassador to Turkey, Francis J. Ricciardone Jr., who was ambassador to Egypt from 2005 to 2008.

    With the Egyptian military likely to play the role of political guarantor in any transition from Mr. Mubarak’s rule, analysts suggest that Turkey might serve as a model for introducing new political parties, writing a constitution from scratch and ultimately stepping aside and letting the democratic process play out (as uncomfortable as that might be) — all of which the Turkish military has done since the 1980 coup.

    “The military did not overplay its hand in Turkey,” said Soner Cagaptay, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mr. Cagaptay also said that even though Mr. Erdogan had made gains in pushing his Islamist agenda, the military served as an effective restraint.

    “The relative moderation of Islamic parties in Turkey is due to the military,” he said.

    There are still substantial differences between the countries. For the Turkish military, its organizing philosophy has always been preserving the secularist traditions that Turkey’s post-World War I founder, Kemal Ataturk, set in place. In Egypt, while the Muslim Brotherhood has been officially banned, the army has been seen more as the defender of the authoritarian status quo rather than secularism itself.

    How the military in Egypt deals with the Muslim Brotherhood — by far the most powerful civic force in the country — will be crucial in determining the country’s political future.

    Can it, as was the case in Turkey, encourage the formation of competing political parties? And can it encourage the moderate elements of the Muslim Brotherhood to come to the fore rather than its more militant factions?

    Turkey may have a more direct role to play on that front. Mr. Erdogan’s party has already established ties to the Muslim Brotherhood — a result of Mr. Erdogan’s long and successful campaign to present himself as a dominant and increasingly anti-Israeli voice in the Middle East.

    According to research by Dore Gold at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, three members of the Muslim Brotherhood — two of whom serve in the Egyptian Parliament — were on the Turkish-sponsored ship that was attacked by Israeli forces on its way to deliver aid to the Gaza Strip in May.

    “There is a great deal of ideological compatibility between the A.K.P. and the Muslim Brotherhood,” said Mr. Gold, a former top adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, referring to Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. “This is something to watch carefully.”

    Perhaps, but in the end that could be a plus rather than a minus.

    For all his Islamist sympathies, Mr. Erdogan is at root a pragmatist. As a young firebrand he was jailed for his antisecular rhetoric but now, after working within Turkey’s democratic framework rather than outside it, he is recognized as perhaps the Middle East’s most influential figure.

    Helene Cooper contributed reporting from Washington.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

  • #2
    This is an interesting idea but it does not say anything about the Turkish military talking to the Egyptian one. The challenge of course is who will be Egypt's Ataturk and if none materialises the implication is the Turkish model won't be feasible.

    Is that necessarily a bad thing or not. Are there any other acceptable scenarios.

    Would Turkey be as secular today had Ataturk not come onto the scene. If not there's an awful lot depending on the right guy being there at the right time.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by xinhui View Post
      Was thinking something in that line just few days ago. This is NYT's take on it.
      Was debating just this point on another thread last week. Representitive govt. in the Arab world isn't going to look like the (more or less) secular democracies of the west. A way has to be found to separate moderate islamists & their hardline bretheren. Erdogan is already a model for some moderates who believe democracy & Islam can co-exist. Whatever his faults his model is better than the likely alternatives.
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      • #4
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        This is an interesting idea but it does not say anything about the Turkish military talking to the Egyptian one. The challenge of course is who will be Egypt's Ataturk and if none materialises the implication is the Turkish model won't be feasible.

        Is that necessarily a bad thing or not. Are there any other acceptable scenarios.

        Would Turkey be as secular today had Ataturk not come onto the scene. If not there's an awful lot depending on the right guy being there at the right time.
        DE,

        I doubt there is or will be an 'Egyptian Ataturk' & I don't thnk that is what the article is about. The question is 'will ther be an Egyptian Erdogan?'. I'd love an Ataturk, but lets not kid ourselves. An Erdogan will do in a pinch. Beats hell out of a Khomenei or Mullah Omar.
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        • #5
          Reza Shah tried pulling an Ataturk in Iran. We all know how it ended.

          Ataturk was from a different era, he could get away with a lot of stuff by keeping it under the radar. Not gonna happen in this age of mass communication.
          Last edited by indus creed; 07 Feb 11,, 22:38.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
            The question is 'will ther be an Egyptian Erdogan?'
            The military is the supreme force in Turkey, they became apolitical and it was them that allowed an Erdogan to happen. Thats what i meant about the militaries not talking to each other instead of the civvies.

            Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
            I'd love an Ataturk, but lets not kid ourselves. An Erdogan will do in a pinch.
            What would Erdogan tell the muslim brotherhood ?

            Make sure you don't end up like us, fight for civilian supremacy, all or nothing

            Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
            Beats hell out of a Khomenei or Mullah Omar.
            There's been too much emphasis on the negative in this whole narrative i think. It goes like this...'we think its great the Egyptian ppl want freedom and all but we don't want a khomeni or mullah omar'.

            Like there might not be an Egyptian ataturk or erdogan yet, neither is there an Egyptian khomeni or mullah omar or at least thats what is let on.

            I admit an Erdogan would be a suitable alternative and wrt the external players it most likely would be the sought after outcome. But is that all there is and more importantly is that what the Egyptian people want. Do they get a say in this or not.

            The Egyptians want the regime out not a name plate change. I'm unsure how comfortable they would be to the military remaining top dog, apolitical and transformed maybe but still ready in the wings should things spin out of control.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by indus creed View Post
              Reza Shah tried pulling an Ataturk in Iran. We all know how it ended.

              Ataturk was from a different era, he could get away with a lot of stuff by keeping it under the radar. Not gonna happen in this age of mass communication.

              Ataturk was a military hero & smart politician who had some claims to have 'saved' Turkey on more than one occasion. He earned his status & used it well. Reza Shah inherited the job from a more impressive man & then had it given to him by external powers. Wouldn't have done a better job in any generation. His daddy was a better comparison to Ataturk.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                The military is the supreme force in Turkey, they became apolitical and it was them that allowed an Erdogan to happen. Thats what i meant about the militaries not talking to each other instead of the civvies.

                The Supreme Force in Turkey is the Turkish people! Sovereignty unconditionally rests with the people. The majority of Turks reject all forms of radicalism and have a genuine desire for democracy. Had the people not had this desire we would today be no different from the Arab world. The Turkish Armed Forces pays close attention to public perception and is there to protect the Turkish peoples. Had the Arab people had the will they would also have a flourishing democratic nation.

                What would Erdogan tell the muslim brotherhood ?

                What he has already said: "Listen to the Egyptian people" & "Democracy and Islam can co-exist".

                Make sure you don't end up like us, fight for civilian supremacy, all or nothing

                What has Erdogan ended up like? He is a twice democratically elected leader.

                There's been too much emphasis on the negative in this whole narrative i think. It goes like this...'we think its great the Egyptian ppl want freedom and all but we don't want a khomeni or mullah omar'.

                The majority of Egyptians are Sunni muslims who belong to the Hanafi school of Islam. It is very unlikely that you will end up with a khomeni or mullah omar.

                Like there might not be an Egyptian ataturk or erdogan yet, neither is there an Egyptian khomeni or mullah omar or at least thats what is let on.

                Egypt does not need anyone special. It merely needs someone that would respect the rule of law and abide by democratic ideals. That should be enough.

                I admit an Erdogan would be a suitable alternative and wrt the external players it most likely would be the sought after outcome. But is that all there is and more importantly is that what the Egyptian people want. Do they get a say in this or not.

                The Egyptians want the regime out not a name plate change. I'm unsure how comfortable they would be to the military remaining top dog, apolitical and transformed maybe but still ready in the wings should things spin out of control.

                Egypt needs to be a true secular parliamentary democracy.This is the only solution for it's problems.
                ...

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  The military is the supreme force in Turkey, they became apolitical and it was them that allowed an Erdogan to happen. Thats what i meant about the militaries not talking to each other instead of the civvies
                  OK

                  What would Erdogan tell the muslim brotherhood ?

                  Make sure you don't end up like us, fight for civilian supremacy, all or nothing
                  Perhaps. Hope he would point out that they can achieve a lot of what they want peacefully and that the price to get the rest any other way is too high.

                  There's been too much emphasis on the negative in this whole narrative i think. It goes like this...'we think its great the Egyptian ppl want freedom and all but we don't want a khomeni or mullah omar'.

                  Like there might not be an Egyptian ataturk or erdogan yet, neither is there an Egyptian khomeni or mullah omar or at least thats what is let on.

                  I admit an Erdogan would be a suitable alternative and wrt the external players it most likely would be the sought after outcome. But is that all there is and more importantly is that what the Egyptian people want. Do they get a say in this or not.

                  The Egyptians want the regime out not a name plate change. I'm unsure how comfortable they would be to the military remaining top dog, apolitical and transformed maybe but still ready in the wings should things spin out of control.
                  I think the fears of where this might go are very legitimate. People remember how Iran ended up & how Sudan & Afghanistan went (not to mention those parts of Palestine & lebanon under Islamist control). The region is screwed up enough without adding another militant theocracy. In a situation where the largest & best organized opposition group is an Islamist group all these fears are very justifiable.

                  I don't think the worry is that the Egyptian people will choose the 'wrong' option, but that in a situation where old power structures are fragmenting that an organised militant group representing a minority might take power. Unfortunately there are a raft of examples of this sort of thing happening throughout the C20th. This didn't happen overnight in Iran, though the situation here has significant differences.

                  The point about an 'Egyptian Erdogan' is about more than a new leader. It is about the idea that Islamists aren't going away in the Arab world & are often the strongest forces opposing existing regimes. Ways need to be found to bring enough of them into representitive systems that their ability to set up undemocratic regimes is removed & support for violence/revolution is undermined.

                  Early signs are that the Brotherhood might be willing to participate in this manner. Lets hope they do.
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by denizkuvetleri View Post
                    The Supreme Force in Turkey is the Turkish people!
                    The Supreme force in Turkey is the Deep State.

                    The Turkish Armed Forces pays close attention to public perception and is there to protect the Turkish peoples.
                    TAF manupilates public perception to gain Turkish people's support including using the radical ultra nationalist fascists like the "Gray Wolfs" who are also their foot soldiers in public.

                    What he has already said: "Listen to the Egyptian people" & "Democracy and Islam can co-exist".
                    You are kidding right.....Only after complete defeat of Islam can they co-exist, just like Kamal did in Turkey.

                    Egypt does not need anyone special. It merely needs someone that would respect the rule of law and abide by democratic ideals. That should be enough.
                    That I would agree that it might be possible but unlikely.

                    Egypt needs to be a true secular parliamentary democracy.This is the only solution for it's problems.
                    Military would never give up its power in Egypt.
                    Wolf Hunter

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ararat View Post
                      The Supreme force in Turkey is the Deep State.
                      Sorry, but i'm still not clear on this.

                      In Turkey , is the military subordinate to the civilian leadership ?

                      or is it the other way around, civilians subordinate to the military, which is what i thought.

                      Deep State does not mean anything to me

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Deep State does not mean anything to me
                        Dates back to Ottomans in its roots.

                        Deep State:

                        Operations Department
                        Special Forces Command
                        Special Warfare Department
                        Counter-Guerrilla
                        Gendarmerie Intelligance and Counter Terrorism Services

                        and our closest friends...
                        GLADIO
                        Ergenekon
                        Turkish Revenge Brigade
                        Gray Wolfs
                        Wolf Hunter

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                        • #13
                          Ararat,

                          once again you showed your nature,

                          how sad, it seems that the hate is ALL you got as a life...
                          Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

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                          • #14
                            Mate, I was answering a question.....I was gonna elaborate but it would have been off topic.

                            Does this mean we are not friends anymore? :)
                            Wolf Hunter

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Ararat View Post
                              Mate, I was answering a question.....I was gonna elaborate but it would have been off topic.

                              Does this mean we are not friends anymore? :)
                              Ararat, perhaps this may change your views and feelings towards modern day Turkey:

                              http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/int...ocide-day.html

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