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  • #16
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    They had a border conflict which resulted in a treaty in 1934 defining the present borders between the two countries. This treaty delineated the 1800 km border between the two countries. The Saudis have been keeping Yemen off blaance so it does not come back and challenge that treaty. There have been sporadic tensions between the two countries at times.



    Watch the video linked to earlier for some background.

    There is no guarantee if the Houthis take over that they will not cause trouble for the Saudis.

    Saudis supported the monarchists in the 60s who were shia. But Nasser pushed for republicanism. Saudis don't like that or MB. Challenges to their system.

    Saudis & US supported Saleh to go after AQAP. Saleh joined the Houthis after he stepped down. he's been in charge since '78 and does not want to go quietly. His military are sunni.

    Saleh supported Saddam during the first gulf war. The guy makes u-turns whenever its in his interest.
    Still don't see what this has to do with population.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by lemontree View Post
      Pakistan will dare not enter its troops in this war, as they will tangle with Iranian interests.
      Iran can then get back at them in Balochistan.
      Iran and Pakistan are on the same side when it comes to Balochistan. The Iranian retaliation would be by supporting Shia militias in Pakistan.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by cataphract View Post
        Iran and Pakistan are on the same side when it comes to Balochistan. The Iranian retaliation would be by supporting Shia militias in Pakistan.
        Anything is possible. But the point is that Pakistan cannot afford to have another antagonised neighbour, as this will eat up their reserves and they will be sitting ducks in any conflict.

        Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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        • #19
          Originally posted by lemontree View Post
          Pakistan will dare not enter its troops in this war, as they will tangle with Iranian interests.
          Iran can then get back at them in Balochistan.
          I think more than Iran, it could be the mere fact that Pakistan will not win in Yemen. You will have Saudis on onside with un-realistic demands as the pay master and on the other side a mountainous country and millitia with per capita guns close to the US !

          Basically rock and hard place.

          Saudi basically want a scapegoat for a attrition war and to contain the spill in yemen.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by lemontree View Post
            Anything is possible. But the point is that Pakistan cannot afford to have another antagonised neighbour, as this will eat up their reserves and they will be sitting ducks in any conflict.
            Even without this crisis, Iran and Pakistan are hardly best friends. It's not like Iran can afford another hostile neighbour either.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by cataphract View Post
              Still don't see what this has to do with population.
              Got that quote from this show. Listen to the JNU prof from 16:00, see 18:10.

              The idea is a united strong Yemen can threaten the Saudis which can open the door for others to meddle too. There is talk that Yemen ceded three provinces to the Saudis in 2000 which had rankled a few people in Yemen.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Got that quote from this show. Listen to the JNU prof from 16:00, see 18:10.

                The idea is a united strong Yemen can threaten the Saudis which can open the door for others to meddle too. There is talk that Yemen ceded three provinces to the Saudis in 2000 which had rankled a few people in Yemen.
                I had never heard of the Rajya Sabha TV!

                I don't think the total population of Yemen is a concern (it's smaller than Saudi's anyway) but the fact that there are extensive historic and familial connections that span the border. The Bin Laden family, for example, is originally from Yemen. Any revolutionary fervour that grips Yemen has a chance of spilling over into southern Saudi easily.

                Interesting to learn about the three occupied provinces, hadn't known that before.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by cataphract View Post
                  I had never heard of the Rajya Sabha TV!
                  Think of it as an indian c-span of sorts. Wish lok sabha tv was on youtube too. The programs are more informative and lower in temperature than on private channels. Where you have a better chance of listening to SME's instead of 'generic' strategic analysts. No obvious agenda that i can discern.

                  I don't think the total population of Yemen is a concern (it's smaller than Saudi's anyway) but the fact that there are extensive historic and familial connections that span the border. The Bin Laden family, for example, is originally from Yemen. Any revolutionary fervour that grips Yemen has a chance of spilling over into southern Saudi easily.
                  Bingo!

                  See yemen's motto

                  "Allāh, al-Waṭan, ath-Thawrah, al-Waḥdah"
                  "God, Country, Revolution, Unity"

                  Bunch of troublemakers from saudi pov.

                  Interesting to learn about the three occupied provinces, hadn't known that before.
                  Some background which led up to the treaty of jeddah 2000.


                  Not only the chance of unrest spreading into KSA but potentially re-questioning of agreed upon borders too. See the grey area. pretty damn big.

                  A decade later, controversy over the treaty.

                  ..the Yemeni newspaper Al-Shareh revealed the names of high ranking Yemeni state officials and tribal sheikhs who have been receiving monthly salaries from Saudi Arabia.

                  Most Yemenis are aware that without this money, the Saudis would not have been able to secure the loyalty of Yemeni officials and influential figures to carry out Riyadh’s interests.

                  The clearest result of this bribery for many Yemenis was the signing of the Jeddah border agreement in 2000, whereby Yemen eventually conceded the decades-long disputed provinces of Asir, Najran, and Jizan.

                  In this context, a group of Yemeni activists and rights defenders recently announced the creation of the Asir Movement to reclaim these regions.

                  Preparations are underway to establish a popular and civil protest movement against the Taif and Jeddah border agreements. The movement stressed the importance of “unifying the internal Yemeni front through rejecting Saudi control over Yemeni decision-making processes and indicting public figures who hold their hands out to Saudi money.”
                  Sounds like a Yemeni AAP :)

                  How widespread this sentiment actually is hard to gauge but it formed the basis of a popular movement that sprung up in 2012 whose goal was to put an end to foreign meddling in domestic affairs. The lack of democracy in Yemen keeps the place off balance. Groups like houthis whose demands were ignored for decades rose up and Saleh siding with them when his chips were down resulted in the present conflict.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Apr 15,, 11:53.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by cataphract View Post
                    It's not like Iran can afford another hostile neighbour either.
                    Sure, but they are in a much better shape than Pakistan with neighbouring countries.

                    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                      Sure, but they are in a much better shape than Pakistan with neighbouring countries.
                      Iran is much more of a stabilizing influence than Saudi Arabia could ever be. It would be in India's strategic interests if India could align with Iran and checkmate Pakistan's supposed strategic depth and use Balochistan insurgents to check against the ISI and PA.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                        Anything is possible. But the point is that Pakistan cannot afford to have another antagonised neighbour, as this will eat up their reserves and they will be sitting ducks in any conflict.
                        Looks like the Paks did say no, officially at least.

                        Saying no to a friend | IE | Apr 30 2015

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