Syrian Civil War Developments

[snapper]

PREPARATION FOR BUFFER ZONE
Turkey will set up buffer zone if inflow of migration from Syria exceeds 10,000.
Ankara is in contact with the United Nations and the Council of Europe in order not to shoulder this burden on its own. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Al-Assad family does not act humanely. "We can not remain indifferent any more to developments. Good relations can not continue forever." President Abdullah Gul said Turkey was ready for the worst scenario."

Cumhuriyet Portal in English

[Chunder]

No I got the gist of what you said bro.

1) You are not mad at me per se :)

2) The queen went to Ireland and not to India not because she's a bigot, but because there were/might have been some behind the scenes politics involved.

For the last time sir - I love Brits. I love England, and London is one of my favorite cities to visit. I have NO chip on my shoulder as to what happened. At the time I sure would have, but I was not there then.

But I do believe it would be a nice touch for her as the ruling Monarch to come over to India in a similar manner.

Lets see - it might still happen. Maybe Charles will come over when/if she abdicates.

I've been pulled aside before for my way of approaching things is rather haphazard to say the least.

I had a coffee very early this evening - can not sleep so thought perhaps I would kill time to read a few threads.

When responding initially I thought you were presenting me with a loaded question (always a recipe for extended arguments) with innuendo by an eo ipso fait acompli.

Havn't had time to read up on Jung though and I shall have to to try understand some more. Such a friggin busy week.

Thank you, I am not deserving of the Sir title however, not by a long shot. Sorry for the terse communication or offence caused.

[snapper]

Syrian spill-over?

"Five people have been killed and about 20 injured in sectarian clashes in northern Lebanon linked to unrest in neighbouring Syria, officials say.

The fighting in the city of Tripoli was between Alawite supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Sunnis, who back the Syrian opposition.

The violence erupted over the weekend after Sunni cleric Shadi al-Moulawi was arrested on terrorism charges.

His supporters say he was held because of his help to Syrian refugees.

The BBC's Jonathan Head in Istanbul says that community leaders in Lebanon have repeatedly warned of the possibility that the violence in Syria would spill over the border.

'Political cover'

Heavy gunfire was heard on Monday in Tripoli's two adjacent districts: the predominantly Sunni Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen, populated mainly by Alawites.

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is a member of the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam.

The fighting continued despite several attempts by senior political and religious figures to put an end to it.

Lebanese army units are deployed in the city, but have not been able to enter all of the affected areas.

"The army does not want to intervene without political cover," Tripoli lawmaker Mouin Mereebi told AFP news agency.

The clashes erupted last Saturday after Shadi al-Moulawi was detained on charges of helping a "terrorist group".

Mr Al-Moulawi is an activist who supports the Syrian opposition. Media reports in Lebanon says he entered Syria recently.

Tripoli has recently become home to thousand of Syrian refugees fleeing the violence in Syria.

In February, at least two people were killed in Tripoli as supporters and opponents of Mr Assad clashed."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18057407

I suppose because the Syrian rebelion/civil war is partly at least sectarian the cross border religious divisions apply...

Thoughts?

[tankie]

Getting worse .

UN observers suspend Syria mission: chief - Yahoo! News UK

[cyppok]

Syria on the ground

Syria Comment » Archives » Has Russia Flipped? Clinton Says “Yes”
It doesn't look good for Syria if petrol(gas) goes then food goes once food is gone then it truly is a total collapse and the regime won't survive.
<excerpts from article below>

Has Russia Flipped? Clinton Says “Yes”
Thursday, June 28th, 2012

“Not one drop of petrol” has been available in Aleppo for a week now, friends lament. Media sources report that three Iranian gas carriers have sailed to Syria with gas shipments, but that will be a drop in the bucket. All the taxi services have come to a stand-still in Aleppo. Friends say they are willing to pay ten-times the amount of a liter of gas for their car but there just isn’t any. They are stranded in the homes. Those who have moved out to villas in the suburbs are really at a loss because they cannot walk down town or to go shopping. A blue bottle of cooking gas in Damascus goes for 4,000 pounds or about 50 dollars.It is only a matter of time before electricity stops all together and food becomes scarce. Transportation will be disrupted and supplies irregular around the country.

The economic situation in Syria continues to deteriorate as Syrians close to Assad recognize that he is incapable of managing or finding a way out the crises.

The latest effort to end the 16-month battle between the Alawite-dominated Assad regime and a largely Sunni Muslim uprising comes as Assad said his country is in a state of war. It also follows the Syrian downing of a Turkish military jet and an attack yesterday on Syria’s pro-government television station that killed seven journalists.

Russia has realized that Assad is losing the battle to preserve his grip on power, the UN officials said, and now the government of President Vladimir Putin is seeking a leading role in paving a smooth exit for a longtime Soviet and Russian client and arms customer.

“When Assad went into total war footing, he lost the Russians,” said George Lopez, a former UN sanctions investigator who’s now at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.

Landis answers questions on the Turkish issue:

1. Question: “Will the jet dispute change Turkey’s policy on Syria? Why? What is the primary concern for Turkey on Syria crisis?”

Turkey and Syria are in an undeclared state of war. Turkey is taking charge of the Western and Gulf led effort to carry out regime-change in Syria and strengthen the Syrian opposition.

In all likelihood, Turkey has been probing Syrian airspace for some time. Syria was undoubtedly trying to put a limit to Turkish aggressiveness and show that it has some defensive capability.

Turkey has smartly escalated and shown its own teeth and that it will not be intimidated or deterred by Syria.

2. Turkey is one of the most important mediators between Syria and West. Why will Syria attack the Turkish jet? Did it mean Syria has already lost the patience because Turkey hosts its opposition?

Syria no longer believes that Turkey is a mediator, but a combatant.

3. Many people thought the jet dispute will trigger NATO’s military move to Syria. But after a meet, NATO showed its caution on military intervention. In your opinion, what are NATO’s major concerns now? What will be the decisive factors on NATO decision making process?

Nato and the West believe that the Syrian insurgency is getting stronger and more capable by the month. They do not want to intervene directly and believe that they can change the balance of power in Syria and ultimately win by arming and training the opposition. For the West, the situation is Syria is moving in the right direction. Assad has announced that Syria is in a “real state of war” for the first time. He is beginning to understand what a predicament he is in. The chances of his being able to beat this are diminishing every day. Even he has begun to recognize this.

The whole thing is a good read.

Ya it seems the crack down Assad performed wasn't targeted at all and all it did was upset the population into a Civil War. The religious issue seems to be addressed in the article somewhat and is kinda interesting if true and holds up. Ergo the opposition is mostly secularly aligned, as well as the population supporting change in regime.

If it destabilizes into a Sectarian Civil War after regime collapses we might see a somewhat partition of Syria in my view or at least federation similar to Iraq with various groups vying for control in their region.

[cyppok]

I am going to propose the following. Imagine this whole interaction as a game with payoffs and costs for all parties involved.

Every country has payoffs and risks now try to see the change in situation as time and change in dynamic as cards being dealt. Every outcome impacts every player twice as more as the past one. Ergo if things are going your way they really are but at the expense of someone else to a certain degree and to expand the total value available to all player to another.

some tidbits of other perspectives below...
Asia Times Online :: Assad forces world powers to think again

Also, given that the Syrian crisis is inextricably linked to the standoff between Iran and the West, surprises are possible. If the Assad regime crumbles, this would weaken Iran greatly, and could placate temporarily disgruntled American allies (such as Israel and Saudi Arabia) which might otherwise seek to draw Washington into a war with Tehran. Since the costs of a war in Iran will be even greater than those of a war in Syria, the Americans and the Europeans might consider the idea.

In this line of thought, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Israel on Monday - his first visit to the Middle East since reassuming office last month - has fueled much speculation. Most analysts have it that the Russian and Israeli position diverge greatly on Syria, and point out that Russia supports the Syrian regime while Israel is indirectly (according to some reports also directly, if secretly) siding with the rebels.

Some, however, disagree, or at least qualify this analysis. According to another recent Stratfor report, for example,

Putin's visit is intended to make the United States nervous and to try to lay the groundwork for shifts in Israel's relation to Russia that could pay off in the long run. The Israelis, however, do have things they need from Putin. They cannot control regime change in Syria, but to some extent Russia can. And here Israeli and Russian interests coincide. Israel would tolerate the survival of the al Assad regime as long as Syria does not become an Iranian satellite.

Russia could counterbalance Iran if al Assad's regime survived. If, on the other hand, his regime fell, Israel and Russia both have an interest in a moderate Sunni regime. [2]

One thing that the Israelis would need badly from Putin, whichever way the Syrian crisis escalates, is his help in preventing Assad from firing missiles at Israel. In the past - for example, in the wake of the 2007 Israeli strike against a Syrian nuclear reactor - Turkey served as a mediator, but now Ankara has compromised its role with both Israelis and Syrians.

[JAD_333]

Cypok, don't you think this would be more appropriate to post in the main Syria thread?

I can merge this into it.

[cyppok]

Cypok, don't you think this would be more appropriate to post in the main Syria thread?

I can merge this into it.

Not sure, depends which thread it is. If it is the shot down plane then no because this sorta puts a kaibash on the perspective. After reading some of the Landis blog I am more convinced that the economic situation inside the country is somewhat untenable if food and gas is gone everyone becomes a protestor and the government falls. This would be simply due incapacity to keep law/order/food going and not some faction of civil war prevailing.

Not sure to be honest if it should be merged. The Turkish plane shot down is very specific.

[cyppok]

Syria Comment

MOUNTING PRESSURE ON THE SYRIAN ARMY
By Jeffrey White – WINEP

The Syrian army is Bashar al-Assad’s main prop — without it, his regime would soon fall. So far, the military has withstood the stresses associated with months of combat against an increasingly capable opposition force, the steady geographic expansion of its mission, and a stream of defections and casualties. Yet these pressures are mounting, and the army likely cannot resist them indefinitely. At some point it will break, disintegrate, or withdraw to the Alawite heartland in order to preserve remnants of the regime. Alternatively, some units may move against the regime in order to save themselves. To increase the pressure and accelerate the process, the international community should provide additional military assistance to vetted and effective armed opposition forces.

THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE WAR
Syria’s internal war, pitting regime forces against the armed opposition, has been unfolding for a year now, and the nature of the fighting has evolved from intermittent, scattered clashes to more or less sustained combat across broad areas of key governorates. …

Overall, last month saw fighting in more than eighty locations across the country, up from seventy in May, with dramatic increases in Latakia and Deir al-Zour governorates. The pace of conflict between regime forces and the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) is accelerating, with June featuring the greatest number of clashes since the beginning of the conflict. Over 250 clashes were recorded by the opposition Local Coordination Committees and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) in their June reports….

What is ignored is that thus far the army did not fold and is still functioning. The longer it goes the more likely it is that it will muddle through.

There seems to be certain intern things going on that are somewhat contradictory. The opposition is fracturing even between Arab groups there is no clear cohesion in the FSA and other groups. Kurds are officially out and pro-Assad, after citizenship re-granting and autonomy being sought and denied by the FSA groups etc... I kind of expected this from the Kurds since the regime can provide far more than the Syrian nationalists and religious opposition since their core focus is on forcing their majority to retain maximum dominance post outcome if it is favorable.

THE ARAB SPRING, ITS EFFECTS ON THE KURDS, AND THE APPROACHES OF TURKEY, IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ON THE KURDISH ISSUE
By Aylin Ünver Noi

This article addresses the approaches of Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq in dealing with the Kurdish issue, with a special focus on historical background. In addition, the article discusses how this issue affects relations among the aforementioned countries and whether cooperation on this issue is possible. The article also examines how the Arab Spring [...]

…THE ARAB SPRING, SYRIA, AND THE KURDISH ISSUE

The wave of protests calling for greater freedoms, respect for human rights, and improving living conditions throughout the Arab world reached Syria. Operations such as massive naturalization of undocumented migrants have been organized by granting Syrian citizenship to more than 300,000 Kurds to ease the mass disturbances.[62] Besides this, Syrian Kurdish opposition leader Tammo, leader of the Future Movement, who openly called for the Asad’s overthrow, was assassinated by the Asad regime in October 2011. The day of the funeral, tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Qamishli. It was the largest protest in the northeast since the beginning of the uprisings against the Asad regime.

Some Kurdish groups are wary of joining the Syrian National Council (SNC) due to the SNC’s lack of clear-cut policies regarding the status of the Kurds in a post-Asad era and disputes concerning the number of seats the Kurds would hold in the SNC.[64] For instance, the only Kurdish party that attended the Istanbul meeting of Syrian oppositionists, Tammo’s Future Movement, wanted the name of the country changed from the “Syrian Arab Republic” to the “Republic of Syria.” When the other delegates at the conference refused this request, these Kurds walked out in protest.[65] The Kurds’ concern is that the opposition against the Asad regime is dominated by Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and that they do not support Kurdish demands for local autonomy.[66] Turkey’s active role in Syria’s uprisings also raises concerns with the Kurds. Kurds believe that Turkey would not leave things to take their own course in Syrian Kurdistan if Asad’s regime in the country were to fall.

It has even been observed that some of the KDP and PKK are used by the regime as “al-Shabiha” (pro-Asad regime armed thugs and mobs). The PKK receives further support from the regime.[68] The Asad regime is using the PKK card as leverage against Turks. The PKK has done little to dispel such suspicions, and some statements made by Kurds seem to verify this argument. For instance, in an interview, Cemil Bayik, one of the group’s leaders, warned that if Turkey were to intervene against Assad, the PKK would fight on Syria’s side.[69] The PKK also serves as a means for the Asad regime to keep the Syrian Kurds in check. The PKK’s Syrian branch, the PYD, pulled out of the negotiations with other Kurdish parties. They do not support the protests. Some Kurds have accused the PKK of playing a role in Tammo’s assassination and claim that they warned not to work with the mainstream Arab opposition…..

According to one political analyst, Syria’s regime is not taking action against the PKK due to Turkey’s current anti-Asad position. Furthermore, the Asad regime uses the PKK to control Syria’s Kurds and prevent the Kurds in Syria from taking an active part in the Syrian uprisings. The SNC hopes to win over the Kurds against the Asad regime by changing its former stance on the Kurdish issue. To this end, former SNC President Burhan Ghalioun has promised a decentralized government, which would enable local authorities to take control of their affairs and would allow for national recognition of Kurdish identity in the post-Assad Syria.[79] Moreover, Abdulbaset Sieda, a secular Kurdish academic and politician, succeeded Ghalioun in June 2012 to reconcile rival factions within the SNC…..it thus seems impossible for these four states to maintain collaboration on the PKK issue. However, cooperation in preventing the establishment of an independent Kurdish state does seem feasible and likely to continue.

Syria’s paramilitary gangs a law unto themselves

HOMS, Syria (Reuters) – When rifle-toting members of Syria’s shabbiha pro-government paramilitary gangs strut into a shop, cowed residents of Homs know to clear out of their way.

Accused of atrocities that include the massacre last month of scores of women and children – many of whose throats were slit and heads bashed in – the militiamen cut to the front of the queue as shoppers shrink back and staff rush to serve them.

In their informal uniform of camouflage trousers and white sneakers, the young recruits swan down the streets of the Alawite neighborhoods, set up checkpoints at a whim and stop traffic to question drivers.

“We don’t know when they’ll show up and when they’ll disappear,” whispered Abu Tamam, from the Alawite neighborhood of Zahra where hundreds of men have joined shabbiha gangs. “Some of their leaders are the biggest thugs in the neighborhood. Now they’re supposed to be our saviors.”

Lawless groups of shabbiha now style themselves as above the control of the very security forces that created them to support the brutal crackdown on the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad that began in March 2011.

Homs is filled with men like short, fat, balding 40-year-old Louay. He hardly looks like a gang leader. But he is not afraid of force, and he claims he takes orders from no one – not even the government he is fighting to protect.

“If the government can’t end this farce, we will. I have boys who would eat rocks,” he growls. “Enough is enough. The army has been at it for a year and can’t put a stop to this.”

Notice what is happening on the ground. Internally people are fed with the insurgency far more than with the government forces. So in essence the insurgency is slowly loosing internal support in some populations. For the government sharing the police power informally with these groups is not a big problem since they create some security that may not be great but is better than armed clashes on the ground. This will fracture the ability of insurgency to expand.

There is a distinct possibility for the Government to win out in the end and push most insurgence activity outside of the country and come down on those still inside as society stratifies and enforces some peace on its own, to remain functional.

Notice some attribution to the Kurds of supporting the pro-government movement of armed mobs, thugs etc... Ergo even they are somewhat supportive of peace on ground especially since their objectives are excluded from opposition movements.

[Officer of Engineers]

Civil War 101. You need two of three things to win a civil war. Guns, money, and the people.

Assad still have the guns. He lost the people. And he is rapidly losing the money.

[JAD_333]

Tidbits Heard on NRP yesterday:

- Assad said he "wished" his forces had not shot down the Turkish jet

- Most of the money coming from the Gulf region to help the rebels buy guns is going to Islamist groups distinguished by their beards...Some Syrian fighters have taken to growing beards to get in on the money dole

- Several small Syrian army units defected by calling up the rebels and telling them to attack their outpost so they can be "captured" They then join the revolutionaries.

[JAD_333]

What is ignored is that thus far the army did not fold and is still functioning. The longer it goes the more likely it is that it will muddle through.

No one is ignoring the army's continuing attacks. My guess is, the army is not going to win or collapse. It will stand down. The regime depends on Russia and Iran for resupply. If Russia decides enough is enough, Assad will have two choices: stay and risk entire collapse of the army and the government or leave and pass power to an interim government while there is still time to preserve order and arrange a transition to democratic government. The trend seems to favor the latter.

[JAD_333]

Bodies of Turkish fighter pilots found

BBC News - Bodies of Turkish jet crew shot down by Syria found

[Doktor]

If Russia decides enough is enough

,
Mr. Putin doesn't seem like a quitter to me, if we had Yeltsin in Russia...

stay and risk entire collapse of the army and the government or leave and pass power to an interim government while there is still time to preserve order and arrange a transition to democratic government

.
So basically he has an option to choose between ending like Gadaffi or like Mubarak. Tough one.

[JAD_333]

So basically he has an option to choose between ending like Gadaffi or like Mubarak. Tough one.

Or a third one--like King Farouk of Egypt who died in bed in Rome.