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  • Versus
    replied
    Originally posted by Zinja View Post
    Putin orders S-400 into Syria
    I don't know how credible this is but this will greatly complicate things and raises the stakes for everyone. If indeed, as Turkey here is saying, Russia's incursion was only 17s and 1.3m this seems like overreaction on the part of Turkey. As the article clearly points out, Turkey itself is constantly violating Greece.
    True, plus a anti aircraft missile cruiser "Moscow" off the coast of Latakia and the protocol that allows them to shoot without a warning at any threat that they think it could endanger their aircraft. Fighter escorts will accompany every strike package. All communications with Turkey are cut off.

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  • YellowFever
    replied
    Originally posted by Zinja View Post
    Putin orders S-400 into Syria
    I don't know how credible this is but this will greatly complicate things and raises the stakes for everyone. If indeed, as Turkey here is saying, Russia's incursion was only 17s and 1.3m this seems like overreaction on the part of Turkey. As the article clearly points out, Turkey itself is constantly violating Greece.

    Did anybody NOT see this coming?

    I think the shoot down of the Russian plane was more a statement to demonstrate Turkey's dissatisfaction of the Russian dropping more bombs on the rebels supported by the Turks rather than ISIS.

    There were rumblings of the S-400 SAM being deployed to Syria as much as 2 weeks ago and Putin was going to deploy it and just needed an excuse to do it.

    Sadly, the Turks gave them a reason.

    I'm saddened by all the media reports saying we need the Russians for this campaign since things would have been a lot easier had they not stuck their noses in this business.

    The Russians stating outright that a military retaliation is off the table simply means that a backroom deal has been struck.

    Look for Obama to stop his "Assad must go" rantings and "A diplomatic solution is possible" speeches to begin. (i.e. Assad doesn'the necessarily have to go)
    Last edited by YellowFever; 25 Nov 15,, 21:29.

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  • Zinja
    replied
    Putin orders S-400 into Syria
    I don't know how credible this is but this will greatly complicate things and raises the stakes for everyone. If indeed, as Turkey here is saying, Russia's incursion was only 17s and 1.3m this seems like overreaction on the part of Turkey. As the article clearly points out, Turkey itself is constantly violating Greece.

    Leave a comment:


  • Versus
    replied
    Correction, one pilot was killed, other one survived.

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  • GVChamp
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    If you are not in it to win it you are in for alot of pain and death.
    The deaths usually come when you've committed to winning.

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  • Versus
    replied
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    The lady in Essex saves one quid even now. For every 3 quids you pay for gas she pays 2.
    Well yea, but in the effort to improve quality of living, costs must go down and than means...? We better gear up Doc, its coming.

    Leave a comment:


  • Doktor
    replied
    The lady in Essex saves one quid even now. For every 3 quids you pay for gas she pays 2.
    Last edited by Doktor; 25 Nov 15,, 13:29.

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  • Versus
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    Nobody 'welcomed' Russian entry into Syria except Assad. Everyone else warned of the risk of precisely this sort of 'accident' occuring; 'deconfliction' talks were held to help prevent this. NATO has no desire to get involved in Syria; ISIS is a Sunni problem and should be fixed by Sunni troops with Western support. Now we hear on Russian TV that Istanbul/Constantinope belongs to them - the old 'Third Rome' - myth. But the Turks have been warning them for weeks to stop attacking the Turkmen in North West Syria but they have ignored this. Something like this was waiting to happen - over time it almost inevitable. If you don't like getting burned stop playing with fire.

    The question now is whether Putin doubles his stake or quits. Short of putting a couple of divisions into Syria, which their logistic capability is not up to supporting, they cannot win Assad's war for him. Ramping up in Syria will inevitably risk more casualties and you can't win so common sense would dictate getting the hell out. However I think the 'TV war' for the domestic audience will force them to stay.

    I am betting Gazproms price for Turkish supply will now rise, Turkey relies on imports from Russia for aprox 60% of it's energy requirements, which is of course why they were in favour of the Qatari gas pipeline via Syria. Assad blocking this was one of the causes of the trouble in Syria - apart from Assad being a psycho. So you begin to see why the Putin regime, who's only real source of income is gas exports, went to Syria and why only 10% of it's air strikes have been against ISIS. Now I think the Muscovite 'Syrian bluff' has gone badly off the rails - as it was bound to do - and they have again found them in a position in which they cannot win and cannot get out; Donbass 2.
    Don't underestimate the energy lobby.

    Somehow this looks to me, like retaliation for those oil trucks that Russian's destroyed few days ago. That is exactly what I was saying, West needs that pipeline and it will do anything to get it, including supporting "opposition" directly and ISIS indirectly in order to get that pipes. This is not about Putin or Assad regime, that dimension of the problem is a curtain for the real deal and real deal is cheap energy.

    So from that perspective, I don't feel comfortable with the prospect of being beheaded just so that a housewife in Essex could save 1 quid on a gas bill, gas that she is using to boil eggs for breakfast. However I am totally aware that this outcome is perfectly acceptable for the UK govt, even if some of its employees don't agree with that policy.
    Last edited by Versus; 25 Nov 15,, 10:53.

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  • Versus
    replied
    Originally posted by citanon View Post
    It's funny you Balkan guys have been fighting the same fight for the past ~5 centuries, and you still see the world through the same lens. I guess because momentum has a life all its own and you can't really look away from that fight. The ABCA powers have a different thing going on. We have so many different problems in so many different parts of the world that we have to look at each thing in itself and try to come up with a tailored solution. Masses of people who look uniform to you we have to look at with a microscope and figure out different groups of friends and foes. To you, the crux is in labeling clear enemies and simple courses of action because you have to pull your entire nation together to mount an effort. To us, we can easily muster enough force to deal with the problem. The key is to limit the cost via divide and conquer and groom local intermediaries who will prevent the problem flaring up again. You see dire and existential, we see problematic and long term. That's the basic difference in the points of view.

    Putin is adept at talking to your existential fears, but he plays the long game. You buy into his lies at your own peril.
    Not quite, the crucial difference between ABCA and us, is that ABCA was never conquered and had to endure savage oppression like we did. To put it simply, you in the West lack the experience of defeat and the consequences that come out of it. That has lead to that kind of thinking, that the world is a lab and that you can safely perform experiments with it, with no consequences. Playing God, I would say.
    Last edited by Versus; 25 Nov 15,, 09:56.

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  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    z,



    also, to put another wrinkle in it, we like the Kurds but not so much so that we'll actively piss off NATO member Turkey.
    Turkey likes us, but not enough to piss off ISIS... Syria is a twisted game that even their (and Turkey's) Byzantine/Ottoman ancestors would be hard pressed to sort out.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    replied
    Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
    Russia does not need to "win," it needs to function as a suitably strong spanner in the works that a viable solution cannot be achieved without acquiescence to Russian wishes.

    Russia cannot "win" in the sense of restoring Assad to full control of Syria as in 2008. But it takes a hell of a powerful, organized coalition to take out Assad and replace it without something that does not resemble the Balkans. Or, more correctly, England before Cromwell decided to simply dissolve parliament.

    Russia doesn't even need to win, it just needs to slow down the rate of loss until Assad can reconsolidate his position a bit. Prior to the Russian intervention, Assad was increasingly routed and his various militias refused to fight outside their local towns. Disaster in the waiting. Russian intervention that puts a few extra years of life into the Assad regime is a goddam nightmare for End-Game and Post-Assad rule.

    Also, this is the Middle East. Alliances change. Hell, not even alliances, BORDERS change. Syria was ruled by Cairo not terribly long before I was born.
    If you are not in it to win it you are in for alot of pain and death.

    Leave a comment:


  • citanon
    replied
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    z,



    also, to put another wrinkle in it, we like the Kurds but not so much so that we'll actively piss off NATO member Turkey.
    But actually Turkey claims to like Kurdistan but hate PKK. PKK claims to hate Turkey and feels hurt that Kurdistan doesn't love it.

    Leave a comment:


  • astralis
    replied
    z,

    US- doesn't like Assad, frenemies with Iran, likes the Kurds, really doesn't like ISIS, likes the FSA
    also, to put another wrinkle in it, we like the Kurds but not so much so that we'll actively piss off NATO member Turkey.

    Leave a comment:


  • kuku
    replied
    Seems like everybody is getting into a real mess over syria, Russia should have provided support to its attack aircraft, Turkey will attack them was for sure.
    Perhaps Russia will now try to do the same
    Turkey is also violating Syrian air space on a regular basis....

    Leave a comment:


  • GVChamp
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    Nobody 'welcomed' Russian entry into Syria except Assad. Everyone else warned of the risk of precisely this sort of 'accident' occuring; 'deconfliction' talks were held to help prevent this. NATO has no desire to get involved in Syria; ISIS is a Sunni problem and should be fixed by Sunni troops with Western support. Now we hear on Russian TV that Istanbul/Constantinope belongs to them - the old 'Third Rome' - myth. But the Turks have been warning them for weeks to stop attacking the Turkmen in North West Syria but they have ignored this. Something like this was waiting to happen - over time it almost inevitable. If you don't like getting burned stop playing with fire.

    The question now is whether Putin doubles his stake or quits. Short of putting a couple of divisions into Syria, which their logistic capability is not up to supporting, they cannot win Assad's war for him. Ramping up in Syria will inevitably risk more casualties and you can't win so common sense would dictate getting the hell out. However I think the 'TV war' for the domestic audience will force them to stay.

    I am betting Gazproms price for Turkish supply will now rise, Turkey relies on imports from Russia for aprox 60% of it's energy requirements, which is of course why they were in favour of the Qatari gas pipeline via Syria. Assad blocking this was one of the causes of the trouble in Syria - apart from Assad being a psycho. So you begin to see why the Putin regime, who's only real source of income is gas exports, went to Syria and why only 10% of it's air strikes have been against ISIS. Now I think the Muscovite 'Syrian bluff' has gone badly off the rails - as it was bound to do - and they have again found them in a position in which they cannot win and cannot get out; Donbass 2.
    Russia does not need to "win," it needs to function as a suitably strong spanner in the works that a viable solution cannot be achieved without acquiescence to Russian wishes.

    Russia cannot "win" in the sense of restoring Assad to full control of Syria as in 2008. But it takes a hell of a powerful, organized coalition to take out Assad and replace it without something that does not resemble the Balkans. Or, more correctly, England before Cromwell decided to simply dissolve parliament.

    Russia doesn't even need to win, it just needs to slow down the rate of loss until Assad can reconsolidate his position a bit. Prior to the Russian intervention, Assad was increasingly routed and his various militias refused to fight outside their local towns. Disaster in the waiting. Russian intervention that puts a few extra years of life into the Assad regime is a goddam nightmare for End-Game and Post-Assad rule.

    Also, this is the Middle East. Alliances change. Hell, not even alliances, BORDERS change. Syria was ruled by Cairo not terribly long before I was born.

    Leave a comment:

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