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  • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
    Assad 'botched his response' but so did the Chinese and, recently, the Bahrainis, in cracking down on dissenters - the difference is that the Syrian regime's botched response was met with an flow of weapons and diplomatic support from anti-Shia/Iran Arab nations who exacerbated the conflict, much as India did with the 'botched Pakistani response' to the unrest in East Pakistan. My point is that the violence would not have risen to the levels we see currently had foreign intervention in support of the rebels not taken place.
    Saudi's walked into Bahrain.

    Syria is not at the point where '71 was. If this conflict ratchets up a few more notches to a full blown civil war then there will be an unacceptable refugee problem and Turkey will find it difficult not to react.

    Lets hope it does not get that far.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Jun 13,, 23:57.

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    • Might save the day for Erdogan tho.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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      • Opens up the Kurdish question for the Turks. An existential issue for Turkey.

        There is opportunity here as well.

        I wonder about the likelihood of replacing the Iran corridor with a Kurdish one.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Jun 13,, 00:02.

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        • The perception has changed but the reality hasn't. Dasmascus and Aleppo are still battlegrounds.

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          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Saudi's walked into Bahrain.
            The Saudis walked into Bahrain in support of the regime, not the rebels/dissenters.
            Syria is not at the point where '71 was. If this conflict ratchets up a few more notches to a full blown civil war then there will be an unacceptable refugee problem and Turkey will find it difficult not to react.

            Lets hope it does not get that far.
            Depends on 'which point' of the 1971 unrest in East Pakistan you are referring to ... in terms of the initial regime crackdown and a violent foreign supported rebel/insurgent response and escalation of the conflict, the situation in Syria is mimicking the events in early 1971. Of course the Syrian regime does have certain advantages that the East Pakistan government did not, which may yet prevent the situation from mimicking East Pakistan entirely.
            Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
            https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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            • Would you be willing to bear responsibility if the hardware was used against against Israeli civilians? Would you be willing to pledge your life or the life of your loved ones for the life of an Israeli that would be maimed by Syrian by this hardware?
              Yeap it's a entirely manufactured scare tactic. They don't want the Syrians to be able to shoot down a fighter or two launching raids into Syria. Hell this wouldn't even prevent be able to prevent a serious air campaign.

              Even if say shooting civilian aircraft is a moot point, the immediate tangible effect of the S300 is that Syria, as it has now openly pledged, will freely transfer devastating weaponry to a terrorist organisation without any fear or repercussions. Russia knows very well that the S300 would not stop the US if the decision was made to go in, so clearly this is pointed at Israel which then begs the question: is Russia in favour of arming a terrorist Hezballah?
              These won't be going to Hezbollah.

              -----------
              Pathetic scare mongering though I'm sure the Russians are happy with the media turning the S-300 into a bogey man.
              To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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              • Looks like there is a need to remind a few facts important to know for every real strategist (tm).

                1) Syria have S-200 SAM systems for decades. Those SAMs range is well over 200km. However, at this range S-200 radar and missiles are only usable against big slow targets like AWACS, heavy bombers or civilian airliners. In other words, S-300 adds big fat zero to Syrian capabilities against civilian air targets. The difference is only important for fast and maneuverable targets, especially then electronic warfare is a factor. And so far, Ukranian air defence have proven to be more dangerous for planes from Israel then Syrian.

                2) SAM systems like S-200 or S-300 are not manpads. They require well-trained and educated crews. As any real strategist (tm) here knows, they can be used to full effect only in hands of Russian crews. Syrian crews are less effective and any other untrained crew turns any S-X00 system in a big fat defenseless target with zero practical usefulness. Any talks about advanced SAMs in hands of terror groups are... talks. Not to mention the fact, that transferring it to say, Hezballah is like lighting a big flashing sign "Syrians did it!"
                Last edited by NUS; 03 Jun 13,, 04:00.
                Winter is coming.

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                • Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                  No nation has shown any inclination to conduct airstrikes against Syria except Israel
                  Obama Asks Pentagon For Syria No-Fly Zone Plan - The Daily Beast

                  I have very little doubt that if it was not Russian and Chinese stance in UNSC, those plans would have been executed.

                  Even when Syria destroyed two Turkish fighters in or near it's borders, neither Turkey nor NATO responded in kind.
                  This episode actually tells us that Syria needs air defense.

                  The S300's, while not Russia's top system, is still advanced weaponry and Russia takes great risks by supplying such an unstable country with such a system when it could easily fall into others hands.
                  Even if the system will "fall into others hands" intact, there is very little chance that those hands will be able to use it.

                  The only need for an air defence system is to prevent Israeli strikes against weapons convoys supplying Hezbollah. Ipso facto, Russia is desperate to maintain hezbollah's supply lines.
                  Wrong conclusion based of wrong assumptions, in my opinion.
                  Winter is coming.

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                  • Originally posted by Zinja View Post
                    Troung,
                    Would you be willing to bear responsibility if the hardware was used against against Israeli civilians? Would you be willing to pledge your life or the life of your loved ones for the life of an Israeli that would be maimed by Syrian by this hardware?

                    Even if say shooting civilian aircraft is a moot point, the immediate tangible effect of the S300 is that Syria, as it has now openly pledged, will freely transfer devastating weaponry to a terrorist organisation without any fear or repercussions. Russia knows very well that the S300 would not stop the US if the decision was made to go in, so clearly this is pointed at Israel which then begs the question: is Russia in favour of arming a terrorist Hezballah?
                    Unlike the good ole West,who's more than willing to arm its own foes,AQ and its affiliates.How about you and yours taking the punishment for all Syrian civilians killed by these as we speak.For now only Syrians,because we know for certainty they will come after everybody else if they win this one.
                    Those who know don't speak
                    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                    • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                      I never said it would, not the current conflict at least. If I wasn't clear, what I meant by a 'transition to a democratic process' was something more along the lines of a 'Qatari model', with incremental steps towards eventual elections at the local, regional and eventually national level, with the latter possibly not even occurring during Assad's lifetime.
                      The Assad family had 40 years to 'transition to democracy' and they had barely taken a step along the road. I doubt anybody here will have children who would have lived to see it based on that timetable and that regime has no right to expect anybody to believe they ever would.

                      The Syrian Ba'ath Party was the one organization in the world that could have prevented the carnage now taking place. They botched it. Nobody is ever going to trust them to attempt democracy now & nor should they. This is going to end with a dictatorship of some sort presiding over a broken nation or a big version of Lebanon - the Assad family's gift to future generations. Russian missiles aren't going to make a shred of difference to that.
                      Last edited by Bigfella; 03 Jun 13,, 09:09.
                      sigpic

                      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                      • Have it occurred to someone that no one with power in Syria is interested in a Western-type of a democracy?

                        BF, Same argument can be said for CCP. No one is even dreaming of aiding "rebels" in China. Just an observation.
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                          Have it occurred to someone that no one with power in Syria is interested in a Western-type of a democracy?
                          Have it occurred to you that no one with power outside Syria is interested in a Western-type of a democracy in Syria?

                          As OoE said - let them kill each other as long as possible. It's the only position that makes Western actions about Syria understandable.
                          Last edited by NUS; 03 Jun 13,, 10:46.
                          Winter is coming.

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                          • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                            My point is that the violence would not have risen to the levels we see currently had foreign intervention in support of the rebels not taken place.
                            Just looked at tankie's opening post, 8 Jun 11. Already over a thousand people dead after 3 months of violence at that point in time.

                            That number would steadily rise in the following months which lead to the gulf arabs wanting to do something because nobody else could. Assad increased the violence very gradually offering no point for the world to galavanise public opinion.

                            Coming to two years soon, the world has been able to do little to stop the killing there. Too many cooks in this kitchen.

                            Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                            Depends on 'which point' of the 1971 unrest in East Pakistan you are referring to ... in terms of the initial regime crackdown and a violent foreign supported rebel/insurgent response and escalation of the conflict, the situation in Syria is mimicking the events in early 1971. Of course the Syrian regime does have certain advantages that the East Pakistan government did not, which may yet prevent the situation from mimicking East Pakistan entirely.
                            Syria has a population of 24 million. The point is where millions decide its safer to go to the border. Jordan & Turkey are already struggling with the refugees they hold presently. If that number were to rise suddenly, it will force some hard decisions. That is the point i'm referring to.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Jun 13,, 11:03.

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                            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                              Have it occurred to someone that no one with power in Syria is interested in a Western-type of a democracy?
                              I would argue that some of the groups who revolted early were & still are - but they may not ever have been strong enough to have much of a chance & definitely aren't now. Most of those involved just want some species of dictatorship.

                              BF, Same argument can be said for CCP. No one is even dreaming of aiding "rebels" in China. Just an observation.
                              ....and if China descends into civil war they will be soley to blame. I don't think any nation is formally aiding 'rebels' at the moment, but India, the US, Taiwan & possibly Russia all have since Mao took over. That included two actual (if small) invasions from Burmese territory.
                              sigpic

                              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                              • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                                Wtf?Extremist hands can't start the radar emiting,even if they somehow grab a battery.
                                *"If" extremeists were to "grab a battery" as you put it, How much more diffacult could it be for them to "grab" a truck mounted radar/targeting array?
                                Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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