Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Syrian Civil War Developments

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Here is a less jingoistic analysis of whether or not Israel would risk killing Russian technicians and engineers in Syria, and how it could use 'non-military means' to convince the Russians to stop the system from being made operationa:

    ... "The S-300 would be the pinnacle of Russian-supplied arms for Syria," Colonel Zvika Haimovich, a senior Israeli air force officer, told Reuters in an interview. "Though it would impinge on our operations, we are capable of overcoming it.

    He said Israel's "red line" on the S-300 was "between Syria and others". This was a hint Israel might hold off on bombing the batteries as long they did not appear set on shooting down planes within Israeli airspace, of being transferred to Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas or to Iran - both staunch allies of Assad and enemies of Israel, or of being looted by Islamist rebels ...


    ... Hewson felt Israel would prefer to destroy the S-300 in Syria but may opt instead just to circumvent it as required for missions, especially if there was the risk of inadvertently killing or wounding Russians helping to install the system.

    Security sources have put the number of Russian military personnel in Syria at several hundred.

    "The Russians would react badly to losing their people, and Israel knows that equally," Hewson said.

    Former Israeli defence minister Moshe Arens said Moscow should be mindful of the harm that seeing the S-300 defeated in Syria would do to exports of the system elsewhere.

    Past clients include Cyprus, whose S-300, posted on the Greek island of Crete, may have given Israel's air force a chance for test runs during manoeuvres over the Mediterranean.

    "I'd be very surprised if the Russians deliver this system (to Syria)," Arens told Israel Radio. "It would become apparent that our air force is capable of besting this system, and that would not make for good advertising." ...
    Analysis: Israel could swoop on S-300 missiles in Syria, but with risks - saratogian.com
    Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 31 May 13,, 21:08.
    Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
    https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
      My friend, you seriously need to become more affiliated with these systems.

      The S-300 is the "ancient" version of these missles. Israel herself has defeated these systems before and thinking that foreign airforces wont come in and destroy them iff necessary is in the least "gullable".

      Russia herself knows these are the antiquated systems compared to the S-400 series.

      Assad will do nothing but invite more foreign intervention. It is better for him to allow the inspectors in before he tries to continue covering his tracks if thats what he is doing.

      And thats exactly how it will appear if he attempts it.
      At the moment I fail to see why Assad would need to use Chemical weapons, given that his military has the momentum and advantage against the rebels - if anything, imminent international military intervention would be a trigger for Assad to use Chemical weapons.
      Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
      https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
        The S-300 is a defensive weapon system in that it is for 'air defense', very expensive, complicated and (as Iran's experience showed) extremely hard to obtain from the Russians given Western opposition.

        Given all of the above, I fail to see why Syria would transfer a limited and prized weapons system to Hezbollah, and even if it did, Hezbollah would not be using it to 'lob rockets at Israel'.
        *Just so you know, its not a "prized" weapon by the Russians. They use the updated S-400 series for their own self defense. But, the sale of these older sytems still modify the "balance".

        Because "If" they do fall into extremeist hands they might not target a military aircraft. It could be a civilian airliner instead. Think about the ramifications of that.
        Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
          At the moment I fail to see why Assad would need to use Chemical weapons, given that his military has the momentum and advantage against the rebels - if anything, imminent international military intervention would be a trigger for Assad to use Chemical weapons.
          *Funny thing about Dictators, They would rather kill the masses and destroy the infastructure of their own countrymen and women before being man enough to step down and allow the nation to prosper and move forward into better days.

          Now you know why many would intervine, because anyone that selfish with power and careless with human lives does not deserve to be in power nor mold the future of that country.
          Last edited by Dreadnought; 31 May 13,, 21:27.
          Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
            *Just so you know, its not a "prized" weapon by the Russians. They use the updated S-400 series for their own self defense. But, the sale of these older sytems still modify the "balance".

            Because "If" they do fall into extremeist hands they might not target a military aircraft. It could be a civilian airliner instead. Think about the ramifications of that.
            Wtf?Extremist hands can't start the radar emiting,even if they somehow grab a battery.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
              Bashar is bluffing. But I'd bet the farm that Bibi isn't.
              Destroying one batch is an invitation for another.And as AM said,if you annoy the russians too much,you might end with Iran getting their missiles.

              Bibi may be a hard one,but Vlad doesn't takes threats easily.
              Those who know don't speak
              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

              Comment


              • Originally posted by NUS View Post
                Is it some kind of joke? Because i can't imagine why whould Putin even care about Hezbollah.
                No nation has shown any inclination to conduct airstrikes against Syria except Israel, which IIRC has done so twice, specifically to destroy arms convoys headed toward Lebanon. Even when Syria destroyed two Turkish fighters in or near it's borders, neither Turkey nor NATO responded in kind.

                The S300's, while not Russia's top system, is still advanced weaponry and Russia takes great risks by supplying such an unstable country with such a system when it could easily fall into others hands.

                The only need for an air defence system is to prevent Israeli strikes against weapons convoys supplying Hezbollah. Ipso facto, Russia is desperate to maintain hezbollah's supply lines.
                In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                Leibniz

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
                  *Funny thing about Dictators, They would rather kill the masses and destroy the infastructure of their own countrymen and women before being man enough to step down and allow the nation to prosper and move forward into better days.

                  Now you know why many would intervine, because anyone that selfish with power and careless with human lives does not deserve to be in power nor mold the future of that country.
                  After Assad steps down, who is supposed to lead Syria to "prosperity and better days"? The Al Qaida infested rebel groups? Everyone realizes now that the rebel groups aren't the democracy craving peasants that they were sometimes made out to be when this whole thing started.

                  Watch what the west does on Syria, not what it says - FT

                  In recent months, and despite the mounting death toll, the debate has swung in the direction of the non-interventionists. That is partly because the view of the nature of the conflict has subtly changed. As one EU minister puts it: “We thought we were dealing with democratic protests that would topple Bashar al-Assad very quickly. In fact, it’s a civil war, and Mr Assad has substantial internal support.” What is more, while there is genuine horror at the actions of the Syrian regime, there is also deep wariness of the strength of jihadists in the opposition. “The longer this thing goes on,” says one senior British official, “the harder it is to pick sides.”

                  In the US, John Kerry, the new secretary of state, is an activist who wants to arm the rebels. President Barack Obama remains opposed. On both sides of the Atlantic, the intelligence and security establishments tend to take a more cautious line than the politicians and diplomats
                  The Thin Red Line

                  In May, the senior American official who is involved in Syria policy met me at his office in Washington. When I asked him to predict Syria’s future, he got up from his desk and walked over to a large map of the country which was tacked to his wall. “You could have a situation where the more secular rebel groups could well be fighting the more Islamist-oriented groups,” he said. “We are already getting that in places like Deir ez-Zor, in the east. In Aleppo, they fight each other.” Pointing to an area near the Turkish border, he said, “We see fighting between Kurdish and Arab militias up in the north.” Elsewhere, there were Druze militias, members of a small religious community most often associated with Lebanon. “They have had some clashes with the Free Syrian Army. And here is my favorite. Christians are now setting up their own militia.

                  What does that sound like? Lebanon. But it’s Lebanon on steroids.” He walked back to his desk and sat down. “The Syria I have just drawn for you—I call it the Sinkhole,’’ he said. “I think there is an appreciation, even at the highest levels, of how this is getting steadily worse. This is the discomfort you see with the President, and it’s not just the President. It’s everybody.”

                  The rapid growth of Al Qaeda in Syria is deeply troubling, he said. “In February, 2012, they were tiny. No more than a few dozen. Now, fast-forward fourteen months. They are in Aleppo. They are in Damascus. They are in Homs.” In Iraq, he said, “They didn’t grow so fast and they didn’t cover all the big cities. In Syria, they do.” Also, he pointed out, there were no chemical weapons in Iraq, as there are in Syria. “We will have a greater risk, the longer this goes on, that the bad guys—they are all bad guys, but I mean terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Islamist extremist groups—will acquire some of these weapons. How do you plan for that? The longer the war goes on, the more the extremists will gain.” Indeed, the longer the war goes on, the greater the threat that it will engulf the entire region.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                    The conflict has blown up to its current level because the Gulf Arabs encouraged and supported a violent rebellion, which in turn invited a violent backlash from the Assad regime.
                    This conflict began by a bunch of kids defacing Syriatel's offices. Then there were people demonstrating peacefully about hardships in the country. The regime botched its reponse and the rest as they say is history.

                    People supporting Assad in Syria, his community, minorities & urban Sunni elites. The rurals however want him gone. Not going to be easy, daddy Assad made sure of it.

                    Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                    The S300's, while not Russia's top system, is still advanced weaponry and Russia takes great risks by supplying such an unstable country with such a system when it could easily fall into others hands.
                    Which is also a good reason for the west not to arm the rebels at all. So am sceptical the vote will pass in in the US. Already got a earful of this after Libya.

                    The idea of arming the rebels got shot down last year in this thread. I'm not sure anything has changed since.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 May 13,, 23:17.

                    Comment


                    • Morons like this clown drag us into stupid... sigh. The average person wouldn't buy a used car from these idiots but we have clowns in government who want to give them billion in weapons.

                      Let these guys kill each other on someone elses dime.

                      McCain: Syrian rebels need heavy weapons
                      Associated PressBy DONNA CASSATA | Associated Press – 2 hrs 26 mins ago
                      McCain: Syrian rebels need heavy weapons
                      WASHINGTON (AP) — Syrian rebels battling the forces of President Bashar Assad must receive ammunition and heavy weapons to counter the regime's tanks and aircraft or it will be impossible for them to prevail, Sen. John McCain said days after he quietly slipped into Syria to meet with the opposition.

                      "They just can't fight tanks with AK-47s," McCain said Friday in a telephone interview.

                      The Republican lawmaker and 2008 presidential candidate made an unannounced visit to Syria on Monday, traveling across the border near Kilis, Turkey, and spending about two hours meeting with rebel leaders. McCain has been one of the most vocal lawmakers demanding aggressive U.S. military action in the 2-year-old Syrian civil war, calling for establishment of a no-fly zone and arming the rebels.

                      The Obama administration has been reluctant to provide weapons to the disparate opposition, fearing that they will fall into the wrong hands in a volatile region. McCain said he discussed what types of weapons the rebels need and whether they could ensure their control.

                      "I'm confident that they could get the weapons into the right hands and there's no doubt that they need some kind of capability to reverse the battlefield situation, which right now is in favor of Assad," McCain said.

                      McCain, a member of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, was the first U.S. senator to travel to Syria since the civil war began more than two years ago. He said he worked with Deputy Secretary of State William Burns in arranging the trip.

                      McCain said he spoke with Secretary of State John Kerry "a couple of times. It wasn't that I was hiding it from him; it just didn't seem to come up. I thought Burns was the right guy to go through. They were very important in the trip. We couldn't have done it without their cooperation."

                      Gen. Salim Idris, chief of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army, accompanied McCain and they met with 19 battalion commanders.

                      Citing the photo of McCain's meeting, a Lebanese newspaper has reported that McCain unwittingly crossed paths with two men connected to a rebel group responsible for the kidnapping of 11 Lebanese Shiite pilgrims in 2012. McCain said one of the men he reportedly met with is dead and no one in his meeting was identified as the other.

                      "The people I met with and talked to directly were well-vetted. Their names and their duties were outlined to me. They came from all over Syria," he said.

                      Two years of violence in Syria have killed more than 70,000 people, according to the United Nations. President Barack Obama has demanded that Assad give up power, while Russia has stood by Syria, its closest ally in the Arab world. Russian officials have said they will support anti-aircraft systems to Syria, and Assad suggested on Thursday that he had received the first shipment.

                      The United States and Russia are trying to get the Syrian government and opposition forces into peace negotiations. Those talks, initially planned for Geneva next month, have been delayed until July at the earliest.

                      "It's hard to imagine Bashar Assad negotiating his departure when he has the upper hand on the battlefield," McCain said. "I'm all for a conference, but I think that conference should take place when Bashar Assad knows that he is doomed to defeat if he doesn't negotiate."

                      Last week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to provide weapons to rebels in Syria, as well as military training to vetted rebel groups and sanctions against anyone who sells oil or transfers arms to the Assad regime.

                      The European Union decided late Monday to lift the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition while maintaining all other sanctions against Assad's regime after June 1, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said.
                      Last edited by troung; 01 Jun 13,, 00:13.
                      To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Which is also a good reason for the west not to arm the rebels at all. So am sceptical the vote will pass in in the US. Already got a earful of this after Libya.

                        The idea of arming the rebels got shot down last year in this thread. I'm not sure anything has changed since.
                        I agree. Hopefully Russia sees sense as well. The problem remains however, as it did in the beginning, what to do about the enormous stockpiles of WMD, all illegal, all likely to cause embarrassment if their genesis is traced, all decaying and some at least increasingly likely to fall into terrorist hands.
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                          If an operational S-300 Syrian capability will dissuade increased foreign intervention (especially air strikes and/or no-fly zones) the chances of the Syrian rebels and their backers realizing that they need to come to a negotiated peace with Assad, and a possible long term transition towards democratic rule, will increase.
                          Syria has no need to worry about Israel or western intervention. All they have to do is not supply Hezballah and not use chemical weapons. The fact that they want this air defense system proves that they are up to either or both of the above of which any responsible power, including Russia, should be concerned.

                          Comment


                          • Syria has no need to worry about Israel or western intervention.
                            There is a push to drag the west in.

                            All they have to do is not supply Hezballah and not use chemical weapons.
                            That simple huh...

                            The fact that they want this air defense system proves that they are up to either or both of the above of which any responsible power, including Russia, should be concerned.
                            Wishing to have the ability to provide protection to parts of their air space/air bases from attack shows they are planning to use WMDs which means we have to attack.

                            =================
                            If an operational S-300 Syrian capability will dissuade increased foreign intervention (especially air strikes and/or no-fly zones) the chances of the Syrian rebels and their backers realizing that they need to come to a negotiated peace with Assad, and a possible long term transition towards democratic rule, will increase.
                            This is not going to end with an election.
                            Last edited by troung; 01 Jun 13,, 00:33.
                            To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                            Comment


                            • To any freedom loving person, with all of the world's problems with terrorism, what would be your wildest dream? Al Qaeda fighting the world's largest sponsor of terrorism Iran of cause!

                              Well, God is on the side of freedom it seems, this is a 'match made in heaven' :). Let these animals carve out each other's hearts and roast them for dinner, the free world should just sit back and watch. US stick to sending paracetamol and bags of sugar and no more.
                              Last edited by Zinja; 01 Jun 13,, 00:47. Reason: Sentence extended

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by troung View Post
                                There is a push to drag the west in.
                                Stay out of it 'the West'.
                                Originally posted by troung View Post
                                Wishing to have the ability to provide protection to parts of their air space/air bases from attack shows they are planning to use WMDs which means we have to attack.
                                No, the West does not have to attack. Those people who are in immediate danger of those weapons should attack. There are F-15s and F-16s surrounding Syria right now from people who are affected first by the Syrian conflict, let them use them. Why does it always have to be US's F-15/16s for other people's causes, the same people who are deep down hostile to the same US?

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X