Syrian Civil War Developments

[Red Team]

Forgive me if this has already been gone over on the thread (and if it has I would appreciate a link to any relevant pages :)) but after the civil war having dragged out for this long, are there any rebel contingents at this point remaining worth aiding directly or otherwise?

I understand the situation has gotten extremely complicated as AQ-sponsored groups aligned themselves into the rebellion against Assad (reminds me of 1980s Afghanistan), but surely if the war were to go into a direction that would result in the rise of a nominally anti-Western regime, it would come back to haunt us later no?

[NUS]

it would come back to haunt us later no?

And then it did not?

Afgan war in 1980's and AQ... You know how it ended.

Chechen wars - Boston bombers. Every war NATO had in 2000's involved chechens fighting against NATO.

Kosovo - criminal capital of Europe, Tortuga of the 21st century.

Afganistan - well, all Taliban need to do is to wait until NATO will retreat in 2014. Will it be friendly to NATO?

Iraq is now a best friend of Iran and terror infested battleground.

Libya - balancing on an edge currently, but the fate of ambassador Stevens gives us a hint.

[Red Team]

Chechen wars - Boston bombers. Every war NATO had in 2000's involved chechens fighting against NATO.

False correlation. Though it is true many who have answered to call to jihad by Al Qaeda were Chechnyans, in this case the Boston Bombers acted ultimately on their own agenda.

Boston Suspects Are Seen as Self-Taught and Fueled by Web - NY Times

Kosovo - criminal capital of Europe, Tortuga of the 21st century.

Not particularly well versed on that action, but to my knowledge we stopped a great deal of genocidal actions on the part of the Serbs and brought many of the perpetrators to the Hague.

Afganistan - well, all Taliban need to do is to wait until NATO will retreat in 2014. Will it be friendly to NATO?

Pending ongoing negotiations for long term military relations between the US and Afghanistan it appears that there is at least some desire to remain friendly.

US-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement - Wikipedia

Iraq is now a best friend of Iran and terror infested battleground.

Never really supported OIF myself, especially after its original premise (WMDs) had been proved null.

Libya - balancing on an edge currently, but the fate of ambassador Stevens gives us a hint.

There was significant outrage by the Libyan government and people against the perpetrators of the Benghazi attacks, so I'd say the Libyans are at the very least sympathetic to the US.

Afgan war in 1980's and AQ... You know how it ended.

The fall of the Soviet Union?

And then it did not?

I won't deny the ever prevalent chances of backfiring in the event of further intervention, but the street does go both ways. The presence of a potentially radicalized Syria would be even more detrimental to the region's already unstable political climate. That's not to say I support full-on boots on the ground action (I don't), but there are other alternatives (e.g., no fly zone) that we've yet to explore.

Of course this all assumes there's a significant contingent of non-sectarian, nominally friendly rebels worth helping. If not the case, then our options would likely be geared away from affecting the civil war and more towards the protection of civilian refugees.

[cyppok]

syrian-opposition-government-prepare-peace-talks-mediator

Secular Sunnis one step closer to reconciliation with gov't.

I am going to mentioned something that will have a huge impact in Syria internally at least.
this is from August of 2012 last year... This year the situation is a bit worse.
UN: Syrians need food aid as crisis wrecks harvest | JPost | Israel News

GENEVA/ROME - Up to 3 million Syrians are likely to need food, crop and livestock aid in the next 12 months as the conflict raging in their country has prevented farmers harvesting crops, UN agencies said on Thursday.

The World Food Program (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said about 1.5 million people need urgent and immediate food aid and close to a million require crop and livestock assistance. One in three rural residents would need help, they said.

This year... to give some scope
Syrian grain imports pick up despite worsening war | Reuters

Syrian newspaper Al-Watan quoted Prime Minister Wael al-Halki as telling parliament on Wednesday that the government expects to buy a healthy 2.5 million tonnes of wheat from Syrian farmers this season.

SHORTAGES

Syria normally consumes between 4.5 million and 4.7 million tonnes of wheat. In a good year, domestic farmers can produce close to 4 million. The harvest was particularly poor three years ago because of drought, one of the reasons behind the protest movement in early 2011 that, when met by government force, eventually turned into an armed uprising.

With imports picking up this year, traders estimate Syria has bought more than 220,000 tonnes of wheat from the global market since February. With a normal harvest, Syria would import around 600,000 tonnes of wheat a year.

About a 1.5 million ton difference assuming gov't gets that 2.5 million. Which areas do you think will get less food? (rhetorical question, rebel held ofcourse)
Syria buys grain via Lebanon to beat sanctions | ArabNews

[Minskaya]

2 rockets slam into Beirut stronghold of Lebanese Hezbollah group
May 26, 2013

BEIRUT – Rockets slammed Sunday into two southern Beirut neighborhoods that are strongholds of Lebanon's Hezbollah group, wounding four people and raising fears that Syria's civil war is increasingly moving to Lebanon. Lebanon's sectarian divide mirrors that of Syria, and Lebanese armed factions have taken sides in their neighbor's civil war. One leader of Syria's overwhelmingly Sunni rebels had threatened to strike Hezbollah strongholds to retaliate against the Iranian-backed Shiite group for sending fighters to assist Syrian President Bashar Assad. The rockets were launched hours after the militant group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, vowed to help propel Assad to victory in Syria's civil war and warned that his overthrow would give rise to extremists.

Col. Abdul-Jabbar al-Aqidi, commander of the Syrian rebels' Military Council in Aleppo, appeared in a video this week while apparently en route to Qusair, in which he threatened to strike in Beirut's southern suburbs in retaliation for Hezbollah's involvement in Syria. "We used to say before, 'We are coming Bashar.' Now we say, 'We are coming Bashar and we are coming Hassan Nasrallah,'" he said, in reference to Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. "We will strike at your strongholds in Dahiyeh, God willing," he said, using the Lebanese name for Hezbollah's power center in southern Beirut.

Interior Minister Marwan Charbel blamed "saboteurs" and said: "We hope what is happening in Syria does not move to Lebanon."

Source: Fox News

A potentially ominous development.

[cirrrocco]

McCain visits rebels in Syria – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Sen. John McCain visited rebels in Syria on Monday, his communications director confirmed to CNN, making the Arizona Republican the highest ranking elected official from the United States to visit the war-torn country.

Brian Rogers confirmed a report that originally appeared on The Daily Beast, which indicated McCain entered Syria through Turkey, and remained in the country for several hours.

so he illegally enters Syria. what a dolt.

[dan m]

A potentially ominous development.[/QUOTE]

BBC News - Russian arms 'to deter foreign intervention in Syria'

Is it possible that this is equally ominous? I feel like its a pretty bold move on Russia's part.

[Parihaka]

Russia is desperate to prevent the Israelis from stopping weapons delivery to Hezbollah. It'll be interesting to see if their s300's add anything to their air defence system circa 2007

[NUS]

Russia is desperate to prevent the Israelis from stopping weapons delivery to Hezbollah.

Is it some kind of joke? Because i can't imagine why whould Putin even care about Hezbollah.

[junoth1001]

Is it some kind of joke? Because I can't imagine why whould Putin even care about Hezbollah.

While Israel is dealing with the threat from both Hezbollah and Hamas, then they cannot militarily in Syria other than by Air strikes, which would be covered by the AA missiles that Russia is supplying to Syria.

[citanon]

Russia is desperate to prevent the Israelis from stopping weapons delivery to Hezbollah. It'll be interesting to see if their s300's add anything to their air defence system circa 2007

Probably an export model. I'd be surprised if they'd send Assad their crown jewels at this point with the possibility of those falling into Western hands.

[Firestorm]

I understand the situation has gotten extremely complicated as AQ-sponsored groups aligned themselves into the rebellion against Assad (reminds me of 1980s Afghanistan), but surely if the war were to go into a direction that would result in the rise of a nominally anti-Western regime, it would come back to haunt us later no?

Regardless of who wins in Syria, the resulting regime is pretty much certain to be anti-western. The west opposed Assad from the outset and your gulf allies are neck deep in arming and funding the rebels. So if he wins, he is not likely to forget this anytime soon. If the rebels (read AQ allied islamists) win, they are going to turn into a Syrian version of the Taliban eventually. So take your pick.

[Mihais]

Probably an export model. I'd be surprised if they'd send Assad their crown jewels at this point with the possibility of those falling into Western hands.

Western hands,like the Slovakian,Greek or Cypriote hands? :D

[Doktor]

and *drum rolls* Germany :)

[citanon]

Western hands,like the Slovakian,Greek or Cypriote hands? :D

and *drum rolls* Germany :)

Surely these are early or export models? Or is Russia herself still using the earlier models also?