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  • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    What US allies? Turkey and Israel? Iraq? KSA?

    They all have different agendas.
    And the Gulf states and Jordan.The rest can defend themselves.And those you mentioned not only have different agendas,but they're also in competion to rule the ''hood''.

    About the S300.Without Russian crews,they're worthless.Combined with the Russian fleet electronic eyes in the sky,they might be of some detterence value.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
      About the S300.Without Russian crews,they're worthless.Combined with the Russian fleet electronic eyes in the sky,they might be of some detterence value.
      There are now about a dozen Russian warships in the eastern Mediterranean and the leased Syrian naval base at Tartus. Syria is the last Middle East nation still allied with Russia, and Moscow will go to great lengths to bolster and protect its decades-long investment. Any Syria-bound new generation S-300 anti-air missiles will have to be culled from the Russian military because the plant assembly line in Russia has been closed for the past year. I agree that Russian advisers will have to operate such a system as there is little available time to train Syrian personnel in how to contend with the numerous sophisticated radars married to the system. The IAF has trained with nations who already possess the S-300 system and has developed appropriate ECM and evasive tactics. Regarding the Russian Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles, Israeli warships are now equipped with the highly effective Barak8 anti-missile system.

      In sum, the new Russian weapon platforms do indeed complicate potential Israeli operations in the Syrian theater, but such problems are not insurmountable. That said, Israel has no desire to become enmeshed in the Syrian nightmare other than to enforce the red-line of 'game changer' weapon transfers to Hezbollah and other non-state actors.
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      • Minskaya,I have no details,of course,but I don't believe Russia gave everything related to S300 to Greece, Cyprus and Slovakia.
        We have to wait and see.But the very aspect of Russian GRU against the AMAN is fun to watch,even from afar and in the midst of the fog of war.
        The ranges in the AO are so small,that the potential for accidents is high.''Airspace violations'' might happen,just to prove a point.
        Those who know don't speak
        He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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        • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
          But the very aspect of Russian GRU against the AMAN is fun to watch,even from afar and in the midst of the fog of war.
          Lol. Fun times indeed. I'd humbly speculate that there are more Israelis who think like Russians than there are Russians who think like Israelis ;)
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          • Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
            Any Syria-bound new generation S-300 anti-air missiles will have to be culled from the Russian military because the plant assembly line in Russia has been closed for the past year.
            Russian armed forces do not use export PMU2 version of S-300. And if the need arise to provide someone with non-export version of S-300, there is enough of them in storage.

            I agree that Russian advisers will have to operate such a system as there is little available time to train Syrian personnel
            Crew traning is a part of the contract and complex will not be delivered until crews are trained. There are report that contract was signed in 2010, and it gives enough time for training.
            Winter is coming.

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            • Originally posted by NUS View Post
              Crew traning is a part of the contract and complex will not be delivered until crews are trained. There are report that contract was signed in 2010, and it gives enough time for training.
              Some Syrian personnel have thus far received two months of cursory training. Far short of the training/experience required in a kinetic environment.
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              • Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                I agree that Russian advisers will have to operate such a system as there is little available time to train Syrian personnel in how to contend with the numerous sophisticated radars married to the system.
                I was thinking about that as well. Doesn't that raise the stakes exponentially then, If say Israel has to conduct another operation and they find themselves under threat of the S300 manned by Russians? What would be the reaction of Russians if their personnel became casualties in an Israeli operation?

                Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                The IAF has trained with nations who already possess the S-300 system and has developed appropriate ECM and evasive tactics.
                This is a gamble by Russia. I don't know if they have provided in their calculus the implications if Israel exposed weaknesses of the vaunted S-300 by conducting a successful operation against it. Russia might find itself faced with another Egypt deja vu moment. I remember someone on this board a while ago posting an article about an Israeli officially warning Russian against selling S-300 to Iran. I think the official said something to the effect that if push comes to shove Israel will 'embarrass' Russian with their system. I guess only time will tell.

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                • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                  I think, for the situation in Syria, we'd do well to figure out our cold hard national interests first, and proceed accordingly.
                  Your interests will be served so long as the situation is contained.

                  This means Assad retains power.

                  Curiously enough this will satisfy the Russians, Chinese & Iranians.

                  Might cause indigestion in certain gulf capitals tho.

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                  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    Your interests will be served so long as the situation is contained.

                    This means Assad retains power.

                    Curiously enough this will satisfy the Russians, Chinese & Iranians.

                    Might cause indigestion in certain gulf capitals tho.
                    Besides the Alawite, perhaps no one fears the fall of the Assad regime more than Hezbollah. Assad's Syria is the main Iranian weapons-lifeline of Nasrallah & Co.
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                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      Your interests will be served so long as the situation is contained.

                      This means Assad retains power.
                      Why?

                      Curiously enough this will satisfy the Russians, Chinese & Iranians.

                      Might cause indigestion in certain gulf capitals tho.
                      Again, how does this satisfy our interests better than destroying the Syria - Hezbollah - Iran axis?

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                      • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                        Again, how does this satisfy our interests better than destroying the Syria - Hezbollah - Iran axis?
                        How are you going to do that ? No arming the rebels is the mantra after Libya isn't it and Libya was a simpler case.

                        That axis is secondary, for me primary would be deposing the dictator and having an elected govt in place. Syria is Sunni majority which means they'd get a Sunni govt. Given the recent inclinations of Hamas & the MB in Egypt that axis won't last anyway.

                        But i've seen no way to push this through. Not worth it if 60k+ Syrians and counting are going to get killed and the immediate region is going to be further destabilised.

                        A year plus and his inner core are still supporting him. Assad has passed his power/legitimacy test.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 19 May 13,, 21:13.

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                        • Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                          Besides the Alawite, perhaps no one fears the fall of the Assad regime more than Hezbollah. Assad's Syria is the main Iranian weapons-lifeline of Nasrallah & Co.
                          You should have learned something from 30 years ago.When Hamas and Hezb rose to proeminence,they replaced nationalist,but largely secular Palestinian factions.For better or worse,those were folks you could talk with.
                          This is Al Qaeda,not Hezbollah that poses a risk.Hezbollah was quiet since 2006.Hamas is relatively impotent.But hardcore islamists in power in Syria,mixed with the MB in Egypt,sounds like murder.Personally,I'm amazed at the Jordanians.They have every reason to hate the Assad clan.But the risk of contagion seems too high to dance on the razor's edge.
                          Those who know don't speak
                          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                          • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            You should have learned something from 30 years ago.
                            Before my time.

                            Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            This is Al Qaeda,not Hezbollah that poses a risk.
                            Let's not put the cart before the horse. AQ is currently a wild card. With 60,000 missiles pointed south, Hezbollah is the immediate and immanent risk to Israel.

                            Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            Personally,I'm amazed at the Jordanians.They have every reason to hate the Assad clan.But the risk of contagion seems too high to dance on the razor's edge.
                            Jordan can barely cope with the refugees. With millions of Syrians and Palestinians within the Kingdom, Jordan has to tread the murky waters very carefully.
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                            • Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                              Before my time.
                              Israel,not you personally.

                              Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                              Let's not put the cart before the horse. AQ is currently a wild card. With 60,000 missiles pointed south, Hezbollah is the immediate and immanent risk to Israel.


                              Jordan can barely cope with the refugees. With millions of Syrians and Palestinians within the Kingdom, Jordan has to tread the murky waters very carefully.
                              Syrian rebellion would have been over long ago,absent foreign support.I can understand the Saudis and the Gulf states.I can even see a point in Erdogan's decision.But I hope Abdullah is lucky this time.
                              Hezbollah is the devil you know.One that requires expeditions every decade,but one that can't be a mortal threat.Everything else that replaces Hezbollah can turn into something more serious.
                              Those who know don't speak
                              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                              • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                                Israel,not you personally.
                                I understood your jist. Was just a having a bit of fun with ya mate :)

                                Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                                Syrian rebellion would have been over long ago,absent foreign support.
                                Agree.

                                Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                                Hezbollah is the devil you know.One that requires expeditions every decade,but one that can't be a mortal threat.
                                Every now and then we do have to 'cut the grass' so to speak. Hezbollah's main threat is not to the IDF, but to the Israeli citizenry and infrastructure. They haven't tossed so much as a tennis ball over the border since the last dust-off. But it would be a huge mistake to underestimate their current capability to sow terror and mayhem with their weighty arsenal of updated Iranian weapons.

                                Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                                Everything else that replaces Hezbollah can turn into something more serious.
                                I understand this. But even the major powers have no desire to militarily intercede anywhere in the Middle East at this time.
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