Syrian Civil War Developments

[Gun Grape]

Notice they are not attacking Turkish positions in Syria

https://www.yahoo.com/news/syria-kur...003754491.html

Beirut (AFP) - A Kurdish-led alliance in northern Syria said late Saturday it had targeted military positions in Turkey, which is leading an offensive against a Kurdish-controlled enclave.

It was the first time the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters, has claimed a cross-border attack on Turkish forces.

No Turkish official was immediately available for comment on the incident.

Ankara and allied Syrian rebels have waged a nearly month-long offensive on Afrin, a northwestern pocket of Syria controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which make up the bulk of the SDF.

Late Saturday, the SDF announced it had carried out "a special operation against a gathering centre for Turkish soldiers" and allied Syrian factions.

It said the position was in Kirikhan, a district in Turkey's Hatay province, and that there were casualties, without specifying what weapons it had used.

"We call on civilians to stay away from positions controlled by the Turkish invaders and... terrorists, as all military positions are legitimate targets for our forces," the statement added.

Turkish media on Saturday reported that two Turkish soldiers and five allied Syrian rebels were wounded when mortar fire hit a police station in Kirikhan.

The SDF has been the US-led coalition's main ground partner in the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group in the east of the country but receives no direct US support for its operations in Afrin.

Ankara has blacklisted the YPG as a "terrorist" group, saying it is the Syrian branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged a three-decade insurgency in southeastern Turkey.

Determined to roll back the YPG's presence along its southern border, Turkey has repeatedly bombed positions held by the Kurdish militia and the SDF during Syria's seven-year conflict.

But the assault Ankara and allied Syrian rebels launched against Afrin on January 20 is Turkey's largest operation yet against the Kurdish forces.

Last week, YPG chief Sipan Hamo said his forces had never launched an attack across the border from Syria into Turkey.

"From when we established our forces until today, we have never conducted an operation on Turkish soil and haven't thrown a single rock at it," Hamo told reporters.

I don't know what we have been thinking. Turkey is a long time ally. The Kurds were an enemy of our enemy (Sadam) but also of our friends. It was a union of convenience and we ignored the things they were doing to our ally.
And now we see that they are trying to strike a deal with the Syrian Army. And attacking an NATO country.

Drop them and stick with our friend Turkey.

Does anyone think that when the Syria mess calms down the Kurds won't be fighting for a "Greater Kurdistan"? One which includes parts of Syria and Turkey. Then what do we do?

[Ironduke]

Afrin offensive: Turkey warns Syria against helping Kurds

Turkey has warned the Syrian government not to help Kurds fighting against Turkish forces in northern Syria.

Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said Turkey's operations were going ahead as planned and it would be a "disaster" if Syrian troops were to intervene.

Syrian media had earlier said the army would help Kurds resist Turkish operations in the enclave of Afrin.

But there has been no sign of this so far, and the Kurdish YPG militia has denied there is a deal with Damascus.

Turkey regards the Kurdish fighters, just across its border in Afrin, as terrorists. It launched a major offensive against them last month.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Russia's Vladimir Putin that Damascus would face "consequences" if it struck a deal with the Kurds, CNN Turk reported on Monday.

Both Mr Bozdag and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu delivered a similar message later in the day.

"If (the Syrian army) comes in to defend the YPG, then nothing and nobody can stop Turkish soldiers," Mr Cavusoglu told reporters in Jordan.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43107013

[Double Edge]

The Saudis are busy on their southern flank (Yemen). They have half their military deployed in support of their operations there.

I reckon that the Jordanians are primarily concerned with internal security and stability at this point, effecting a cordon sanitaire to prevent the conflict from spilling over their borders, and that they are generally hedging their bets with regards to Syria, as there's no clear path to victory for anti-Assad forces.

Additionally, Assad is the devil they know, and the unforeseen consequences of a rebel "victory" could be a detriment to Jordan, to the point of being an existential threat to their government. Even if Assad were defeated, the likely result would be internecine conflict between the multitude of Sunni factions in Syria, much like as seen in Libya, with a greater potential for the conflict to spill over their borders without Assad as the principal rebel focus.

It's worth noting that Palestinians are 60% of Jordan's population (deliberately under-counted by the Jordan government), whom the Jordanian government keeps a very tight lid on through their security services.

The Sunni Arab states/GCC have no real means with which to deploy any significant forces into Syria. The only possible way they could do this is through Jordan. The Syrian coast is Alawite populated and a strong Assad redoubt. It goes without saying the Arab governments most involved in the Syrian conflict have no naval/logistical means to go in that way on top of that. So even if they wanted to intervene directly with ground forces, it's a non-starter as Jordan has nixed the idea. Which basically limits them to supporting proxies.

Sure, was listening to this show and the host just threw that line out. Just from a visual perspective it kinda took.

This is why Daish is the world's problem and not that of the region

Think back to first gulf war, you had a coalition of countries there marching in to liberate the place. Or even the Libyan one where air forces from UAE, Qatar & the KSA collaborated.

This one was blocked by the Russians right from the start. Ostensibly to protect Assad but after all these years you wonder what good came out of it. Assad gets to keep his spot but man did the people suffer. Whenever this thing ends, the country is going to be left in rubble. Worse than Afghanistan

[citanon]

first of all you can remember that i am NOT an Erdogan fan at all. please keep this in mind while reading my post.

and remember how he gained the power using the heavy influence of US & EU during the days of 2001 economical crisis of Turkey.

And that was a dumb move on our part.

i remember very well the peace process with PKK. and i also remember very well the reports of my business colleagues heard with my own ears that PKK used the peace time as a regroupe and reinforcement break. please do not compare PKK with any of those older terrorist organisations. PKK was/is a subcontractor. they were/are not "freedom" fighters.

They are rebels. Any smart organization will use a lull in the fighting to reorganize and refit. That doesn't mean the peace process would have failed.

With the isis threat you had additional leverage, andyou had the Kurds needing constant us support.

I think Turkey could have made it work. The real problem was, if the Kurdish problem was.solved, what would be there to distract the army and the people? Erdogans was motivated to scuttle the peace not to make it work. That was the ultimate cause of the breakdown. I can't prove it, but I very strongly suspect it.

as for IS... supporting a terrorist organisation against another one?? are you serious about this? two wrongs dont make a right here.

I don't see the ypg or the pkk even massacreing civilians, raping women and children and chopping off heads. The pkk are rebels, bust IS was clearly a greater threat.

or its for the ultimate goal of creating a Kurdish "Muslim Israel"???

They ate not, yet. Don't make them one.

on the other hand dont you think that it is ironic... when US supports a terrorist organisaton against another it is OK. when Turkey does the same (not the mention the difference of scales) it becames "un-trustful"...

Again, compare what the two were doing.

another misleading thing is YPG/PKK does not represent the entirety of Kurds.

If you refer the YPG/PKK being US allies from 1991 than we have other things to discuss. a terrorist organisaton can not be US's "rock solid" ally i presume.

You're right. I should not group them together.

On the other hand, in the last 25 years, when the US needed people to fight, Kurds kept showing up.

personally i find your remarque a bit offensive. how many wars US fought with YPG/PKK? and when?...

One is enough to earn our respect.

as for being bulwark of NATO... you must understand that US is losing the support of Erdogan's opposition because of these childish moves.

If erdogans wants to move away one can't stop them with lack of excuses, especially when he's initiating the moves.

what good will do to replace a terrorist with another?

Having seen what real terrorists look like, I don't think I'm convinced the pkk are terrorists anymore. They are certainly not dead enders. Turkey has the chance to bring them back into the fold. Problem is I doubt Erdogan wants to.

more than that, what can be the purpose of replacing a terrorist who has a wider target (therefore harder to achieve) with a terrorist who is more focused & organised? and aimed at Turkey?

Well, for one, they are not medieval barbarians.

If you dont want Erdogan at te helm of Turkey you should not give him these grounds to attack Turkeys alignements towards West.

Trouble is, since erdogans is at the helm, he gets to manufacture the excuses.

[Ironduke]

The Saudis are busy on their southern flank (Yemen). They have half their military deployed in support of their operations there.

I reckon that the Jordanians are primarily concerned with internal security and stability at this point, effecting a cordon sanitaire to prevent the conflict from spilling over their borders, and that they are generally hedging their bets with regards to Syria, as there's no clear path to victory for anti-Assad forces.

Additionally, Assad is the devil they know, and the unforeseen consequences of a rebel "victory" could be a detriment to Jordan, to the point of being an existential threat to their government. Even if Assad were defeated, the likely result would be internecine conflict between the multitude of Sunni factions in Syria, much like as seen in Libya, with a greater potential for the conflict to spill over their borders without Assad as the principal rebel focus.

It's worth noting that Palestinians are 60% of Jordan's population (deliberately under-counted by the Jordan government), whom the Jordanian government keeps a very tight lid on through their security services.

The Sunni Arab states/GCC have no real means with which to deploy any significant forces into Syria. The only possible way they could do this is through Jordan. The Syrian coast is Alawite populated and a strong Assad redoubt. It goes without saying the Arab governments most involved in the Syrian conflict have no naval/logistical means to go in that way on top of that. So even if they wanted to intervene directly with ground forces, it's a non-starter as Jordan has nixed the idea. Which basically limits them to supporting proxies.

[Double Edge]

You mean where are the other Arab countries? e.g. Saudis, Jordanians, etc?

right

[kato]

Jordan, since suspending its air campaign in Syria proper, is mostly concerned with border patrol on the Syrian border so as not to be overrun with refugees. They got a dozen combat helos from Israel and a battalion of IFVs from Germany for that purpose.
Turkey is trying to pull them towards supporting them politically in their operation in Syria, but so far with zero success (see e.g. here).

[Ironduke]

Weird thing about this war ? where are the Arabs

The actors are all non-arabs. Israelis, Americans, Turks, Russians & Iranians fighting in it.

You mean where are the other Arab countries? e.g. Saudis, Jordanians, etc?

[Double Edge]

Weird thing about this war ? where are the Arabs

The actors are all non-arabs. Israelis, Americans, Turks, Russians & Iranians fighting in it.

[Big K]

Big K, the IRA and Sinn Fein used to be terrorists too. Then there was the peace accords and now only the extreme elements of those organizations are considered terrorists.

I'm sure you recall that there was a peace process with the PKK too. That fell apart under murky circumstances. Meanwhile, the US has been working with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria to do the heavy lifting vs IS. Do we think that a Kurd that's our ally suddenly becomes a terrorist when they cross the border to Turkey? Or, are we aiming to create a political settlement that brings in most of PKK but isolates the real extremists?

Also, if Ash Carter's testimony confuses you, would you not expect Turkey's interactions with IS in the early days, Nusra later, and various other Islamist head choppers in more recent months might just confuse us? Things are very confusing in general between the US and Turkey right now.

Granted, this war has been confusing and Turkey has had to pick her way through turbulent currents, but the US needs at least one rock solid ally on the ground. We found them in the Kurds. Solid as rock US allies since 1991.

Turkey has been a bulwark for NATO since its founding, but, unfortunately, under Erdogan, things have obviously changed.

first of all you can remember that i am NOT an Erdogan fan at all. please keep this in mind while reading my post.

and remember how he gained the power using the heavy influence of US & EU during the days of 2001 economical crisis of Turkey.

i remember very well the peace process with PKK. and i also remember very well the reports of my business colleagues heard with my own ears that PKK used the peace time as a regroupe and reinforcement break. please do not compare PKK with any of those older terrorist organisations. PKK was/is a subcontractor. they were/are not "freedom" fighters.

as for IS... supporting a terrorist organisation against another one?? are you serious about this? two wrongs dont make a right here.

or its for the ultimate goal of creating a Kurdish "Muslim Israel"???

as for Turkey's interactions with IS. they were highly condemned in here too, the allegations are still being made for those days.

on the other hand dont you think that it is ironic... when US supports a terrorist organisaton against another it is OK. when Turkey does the same (not the mention the difference of scales) it becames "un-trustful"...

another misleading thing is YPG/PKK does not represent the entirety of Kurds.

If you refer the YPG/PKK being US allies from 1991 than we have other things to discuss. a terrorist organisaton can not be US's "rock solid" ally i presume.

personally i find your remarque a bit offensive. how many wars US fought with YPG/PKK? and when?...

as for being bulwark of NATO... you must understand that US is losing the support of Erdogan's opposition because of these childish moves.

what good will do to replace a terrorist with another?

more than that, what can be the purpose of replacing a terrorist who has a wider target (therefore harder to achieve) with a terrorist who is more focused & organised? and aimed at Turkey?

If you dont want Erdogan at te helm of Turkey you should not give him these grounds to attack Turkeys alignements towards West.

[citanon]

Citanon,

knowing that YPG is already fighting with ISIS, a mention about a "turn" against terrorist elements would be PKK.

wouldnt you agree?

as you know PKK IS a terrorist organisation...

and it is absurd for me too...

Big K, the IRA and Sinn Fein used to be terrorists too. Then there was the peace accords and now only the extreme elements of those organizations are considered terrorists.

I'm sure you recall that there was a peace process with the PKK too. That fell apart under murky circumstances. Meanwhile, the US has been working with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria to do the heavy lifting vs IS. Do we think that a Kurd that's our ally suddenly becomes a terrorist when they cross the border to Turkey? Or, are we aiming to create a political settlement that brings in most of PKK but isolates the real extremists?

Also, if Ash Carter's testimony confuses you, would you not expect Turkey's interactions with IS in the early days, Nusra later, and various other Islamist head choppers in more recent months might just confuse us? Things are very confusing in general between the US and Turkey right now.

Granted, this war has been confusing and Turkey has had to pick her way through turbulent currents, but the US needs at least one rock solid ally on the ground. We found them in the Kurds. Solid as rock US allies since 1991.

Turkey has been a bulwark for NATO since its founding, but, unfortunately, under Erdogan, things have obviously changed.

[Big K]

K,

Was wondering if you could give us from a Turkish perspective some insights into ultimate Turkish goals and endgame in Syria.

actually it is very simple.

Turkey will not allow any new state within the borders or Syria and/or Iraq. Especially one that is founded by a terrorist organisation like PKK.

So Turkish operation is not for acquiring land from Syria but at first to prevent any new "state" to reach mediterranean. The second objective will be to ensure what ever necessary to stay that way.

That's a lie aimed at splitting the US and the Kurds.

What Mattis said to him was probably something along the lines of : YPG will turn against the terrorist elements.

He took that and changed it to: Mattis says will turn YPG against PKK.

Citanon,

knowing that YPG is already fighting with ISIS, a mention about a "turn" against terrorist elements would be PKK.

wouldnt you agree?

as you know PKK IS a terrorist organisation...

and it is absurd for me too...

[kato]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43107013

Afrin: Kurdish fighters 'strike deal' with Syrian army

Kurdish fighters in north-western Syria say they have struck a deal with the Syrian government under which it will send troops to help repel a Turkish offensive.

The Syrian government in Damascus has offered no confirmation.

Turkey regards the Kurdish fighters, just across its border in Afrin, as terrorists. It launched a major offensive against them last month.

There is currently no Syrian military presence in the area.

A senior Kurdish official, Badran Jia Kurd, told Reuters that government soldiers could enter the Afrin region within days and that they would deploy to some border positions.

The alleged agreement was also reported by Iraqi Kurdish media group Rudaw, which quoted a Kurdish politician from Syria, and a news agency which backs Syrian Kurdish forces.

If the deal has really been struck, Turkish troops could find themselves confronting not only Kurdish fighters in Afrin, but the Syrian army too, says BBC World Service Middle East editor Alan Johnston. [...]

German state news outlet Deutsche Welle claims the agreement was brokered by Russia.

[Ironduke]

Here's an English-language version of the Evro Polis-Syria contract I translated:

https://pastebin.com/zGbu1piK

It's legalese up to the middle of page 11, where the terms begin.

[citanon]

Dead mercs can't come back to make political trouble.

Also a very stark warning for Turkey.

Oh I fully agree with what was done, but I feel sorry for these fighters as human beings.