Syrian Civil War Developments

[NUS]

At the very least, Russia is re-enforcing Tartus.

Tartus naval supply and maintenance facility consists of docks and 4 Russian sailors. There is nothing to re-enforce.

[Officer of Engineers]

And you've just added 240 Marines with those two ships. Considering that this has been a war of 1-2 thousand poorly trained troops with zero understanding of CBQ tactics, you've just denied Tartus to the Syrian rebels and ensure that Russia has a staging point.

[Minskaya]

Minskaya and Al-jazeera: "Russians are evacuating civilians!!! Assad's regime is about to fall apart!!!"

The Russians have supplied and propped up the Assad regime throughout this civil war. The Salifist rebels are now at the very gates of Damascus and Aleppo. Yet you highly discount the possibility that the Russians have made contingency plans to get their people the hell out of this rapidly crumbling shit-hole. This yields two possibilities. Either the Russians are incredibly stupid and incompetent, or you are.

[Chogy]

What is the potential for violence and retribution directed at Russian nationals should Assad fall? Will vengeful crowds seek them out to either hold as hostages, or simply beat or kill? And in either case, what would the likely Russian response be?

If the (presumed victorious) rebels have any spark of intelligence, they will simply leave them be, or at worst, expel them.

[Officer of Engineers]

The US ambassador died in Libya. It would be safe to assume that a post Assad Syria is not going to be any saner.

[Bluesman]

Al Jazz is reporting chemical weapons used to lethal effect by the regime. IB Times (UK) is also reporting it.

[bigross86]

So, on the one hand, the head of Syria’s military police defected to the rebels earlier today, claiming reports of chemical weapons being used in Homs were true. He is currently the highest ranking Syrian military man to defect to the rebels, IIRC.

On the other hand, according to Israeli sources which are obviously keeping an extremely close eye on the situation, there was no use of chemical weapons.

[Doktor]

For some reason... I'd believe Israelies.

[Bigfella]

For some reason... I'd believe Israelies.

Generally so would I, but there were apparently reports at the time of something odd happening in Homs. Hard to know exactly what is what. The general jumping ship is more bad news for Assad.

Reports from Homs had suggested that a type of nerve agent was used by the Syrian forces in the attack, a point that General Shallal appeared to verify yesterday. Al Jazeera reported at the time that at least seven people had died after inhaling a poisonous gas “sprayed by government forces in a rebel-held Homs neighbourhood”.

“We don’t know what this gas is but medics are saying it’s something similar to sarin gas,” Raji Rahmet Rabbou, an activist in Homs, told Al Jazeera.

It is not clear that the substance used in Homs was banned by international law, even the though the General yesterday specifically referred to a “chemical weapons” attack. Nonetheless, the use of non-conventional weapons is considered a “red line” by some in the international community who have been reluctant to intervene directly.

'Chemical weapons were used on Homs': Syria's military police defector tells of nerve gas attack - Middle East - World - The Independent

[citanon]

'Agent-15' Chemical Weapon Used In Syria - Business Insider

Says it was an incapacitating agent.

[snapper]

For starters 'training' near Tartus means 'going to' Tartus. Secondly 'Naval Infantry' who's special training is what makes them 'naval' infantry as opposed to normal infantry are not likely to stray far inland. Besides their specialty making them unfit to roam around the Syrian interior their numbers - even if there are 500 of them - would make it unwise to wander inland. If this intended as an evacuation then the Russian civilians will told to make their own to Tartus but if there are 8-9000 Russians in Syria it is doubtful that all could clamber aboard and the air exit from Damascus, if the airport remains in Assads hands, is more effective, though possibly Cypriot ferries could be employed if need be. I can't see this small deployment as a full scale Russian evacuation myself; at best it can be only be a part of such an evacuation. More likely this is both part of a worst case evacuation plan but for now a strengthening of the Tartus base from which the alawites in Latakia can be supplied and where Assad will most probably seek refuge should Damascus become too hot for him.

[Blademaster]

The deployment of the naval infantry means that they wishes to secure the port in order to give Russia options and deny sea control or access to the rebels but nothing more. I think they are preparing for an eventual evacuation of their personnel including civilians and need a staging port and they have to secure one. But Naval infantry by itself are defensive, not to be meant as offensive since they do not have the tools or structure to mount an offensive operation but perhaps a counter strike operation design to disrupt enemy movements to buy time or put enemy forces in disarray so the enemy forces can't mount an offensive attack.

[Mihais]

Naval infantry+ naval artillery means that at least the base and the city is secure.Snapper has a point about the bridgehead and safe heaven for Assad.But direct Russian engagement in the conflict means raising the ante,both for them and for NATO.Now,given the nature of the rebels it would be very well if the CW can be removed from the rebel reach and secured by the Army and or the Russians.My knowledge about CW is superficial,so no idea if it's feasible to move them,given the resources and the time constraint.

Also direct Russian involvement,if it comes to this,can't be prolonged.

[Doktor]

Generally so would I, but there were apparently reports at the time of something odd happening in Homs. Hard to know exactly what is what. The general jumping ship is more bad news for Assad.



'Chemical weapons were used on Homs': Syria's military police defector tells of nerve gas attack - Middle East - World - The Independent

I am aware of the "other" reports, but for Israelis, there is nothing (obvious at least) to be gained by denying gas usage.
All the other sides have short-term interests in it and I'd put their noise under "special warfare".

[Blademaster]

Naval infantry+ naval artillery means that at least the base and the city is secure.Snapper has a point about the bridgehead and safe heaven for Assad.But direct Russian engagement in the conflict means raising the ante,both for them and for NATO.Now,given the nature of the rebels it would be very well if the CW can be removed from the rebel reach and secured by the Army and or the Russians.My knowledge about CW is superficial,so no idea if it's feasible to move them,given the resources and the time constraint.

Also direct Russian involvement,if it comes to this,can't be prolonged.

If Russia gets involved, NATO won't get involved because the risks of blowing up into nuclear war is too great. Russia may have to take the long way around. Certainly can't use the Bosporus Strait for now as Turkey won't like Russia getting involved.