Syrian Civil War Developments

[Parihaka]

To be fair,it's possible the above video is disinformation.But the risk of that crap being real is not worthy of taking it as such.

Didn't take the video seriously, we concocted vastly more impressive and dangerous brews in my 5th form chemistry class with our mad chemistry teacher ("next term boys I'll show you how to make a bomb that'll blow out the windows with nothing more than a bag of flour"). As Chogy says virtually anything would do it, I could piss into the tank after a night on the turps, add a medicinal pill or two and the rabbits would expire.

[Parihaka]

second-best option is for the west to openly support the most pro-western/secular rebels, and lean hard on the gulf states to stop shunting money through the islamist groups.

Unfortunately the pro-west groups, if they still exist outside a bunch of academics hiding in Turkey, are now more than marginalised by the fighters on the ground where Jabhat Al-Nusra seem to be dominating control. The most pro western forces there are the core of the army, the Alawites. Perhaps a negotiated settlement via Russia for Assad to quietly retire in luxury to some sunny shore followed immediately by large scale reinforcements and equipment from the west to stabilise the situation. New leader taken from negotiations between Russia and the west. Iran kept out of the loop, Saudi Arabia pissed off of course but hey, they had their try.

[astralis]

pari,

Unfortunately the pro-west groups, if they still exist outside a bunch of academics hiding in Turkey

dunno about pro-west but the uprising itself started as a largely secular movement. of course given the way the funding faucet was turned on by the gulf states the islamists now dominate.

i think the situation can be turned around some, but even then you get a very messy situation. as i said, very much a second-best solution.

Perhaps a negotiated settlement via Russia for Assad to quietly retire in luxury to some sunny shore followed immediately by large scale reinforcements and equipment from the west to stabilise the situation.

if by reinforcements you mean ground troops that won't happen. but yeah, western funding. it'll be good to detach syria from the iranian orbit.

[Parihaka]

pari,



dunno about pro-west but the uprising itself started as a largely secular movement. of course given the way the funding faucet was turned on by the gulf states the islamists now dominate.

When I say pro west I'm thinking Turkey

[zraver]

best case for the west-- which is to say the least bad option-- is for assad to GTFO, leaving some sort of caretaker government in place that will open negotiations with the rebels. at this point in time i'm not comfortable with an outright rebel victory, nor would i want to see assad stay in place.

this has a low-probability chance of happening, though.

second-best option is for the west to openly support the most pro-western/secular rebels, and lean hard on the gulf states to stop shunting money through the islamist groups.

The Free Syrian Army was mostly secular, do not know about know. Or if they can be pushed back into the lead. Leaning on the gulf states could be problematic. Our best wedge would to be talk about throwing support behind Bahrani Shias unless they gave us a quid pro quo in Syria. But if they called us on, do we throw the Shia our support to the possible benefit of Iran?

[astralis]

z,

Our best wedge would to be talk about throwing support behind Bahrani Shias unless they gave us a quid pro quo in Syria. But if they called us on, do we throw the Shia our support to the possible benefit of Iran?

the US wouldn't make such a blatant quid quo pro, which would be really hard for the US to enforce anyway. plus, the arabs probably wouldn't make that exchange even if offered-- bahrain's a lot closer to home.

the US just needs to identify such groups as terrorist, like we already have for Jabhat Al-Nusra. this allows the US to start freezing their financial instruments, which makes it considerably more risky and difficult for any gulf financiers.

in any case, we're not totally blind to what's happening, there's a good reason why we just recognized a coalition of syrian opposition groups today. now it's time to translate this into action.

[polijunkie]

Here is an interactive map for November highlighting Syrian rebels gain and regime movements. The Atlantic Council of Canada » Mapping the Syrian Crisis (November) very interesting indeed!

[S2]

polijunkie Reply

Valuable find. I'll look forward to the next installment. Thanks.

[Minskaya]

I have heard whispers that a handful of Russian warships with landing craft has left a Baltic port and is heading for the naval base of Tartus on the Syrian coast. Rumor has it that their mission is to remove all Russian civilians in Syria if conditions continue to deteriorate. The rebels recently overtook the Yarmouk Palestinian camp which is just a few miles from the heart of Damascus.

[snapper]

Or to get the chemical weapons.

[Bigfella]

I have heard whispers that a handful of Russian warships with landing craft has left a Baltic port and is heading for the naval base of Tartus on the Syrian coast. Rumor has it that their mission is to remove all Russian civilians in Syria if conditions continue to deteriorate. The rebels recently overtook the Yarmouk Palestinian camp which is just a few miles from the heart of Damascus.

It was being reported somewhere a few days ago in just those terms. Apparently the ships involved are suited to removing people. There were also ships coming from ports in Northern Russia. Curious as to why they didn't send them from the Black Sea.

[Minskaya]

Apparently the ships involved are suited to removing people. There were also ships coming from ports in Northern Russia. Curious as to why they didn't send them from the Black Sea.

There are approximately 30,000 Russians in Syria. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations intends to use landing vessels (above) that belong to the Baltic fleet. The evacuated will be ferried in such ships to Cyprus and from there airlifted to Russia via Aeroflot. Warships from the Black Sea fleet will be on hand to provide security.

[Bigfella]

There are approximately 30,000 Russians in Syria. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations intends to use landing vessels (above) that belong to the Baltic fleet. The evacuated will be ferried in such ships to Cyprus and from there airlifted to Russia via Aeroflot. Warships from the Black Sea fleet will be on hand to provide security.

The Russians have held on this long despite a lot of signs that Assad was going to fall. The fact they are planning to evacuate is about as clear a sign as we are going to get that the folks with the best inside info on the situation have given up on him.

[S2]

Imagine how a Syrian Army junior officer, N.C.O. or soldier feels with these rumors?

[NUS]

Imagine how a Syrian Army junior officer, N.C.O. or soldier feels with these rumors?

Thats the only reason why this news appear again and again from time to time. But, as usual for this war, it has nothing to do with reality. PsyOps.