Syrian Civil War Developments

[zraver]

Lets take a step back for a minute. Serious question, does any really believe Syria would use chemical weapons or is the hype machine in effect?

Yes, the only reason Saddam was brought to justice was because he invaded Kuwait. Had he not, it is likely he would still be in power today. Unless Russia gives Assad some sort of indicator it is yanking its protection from him, Assad may feel secure enough to use them. At this point he has nothing left to lose. If he cant (and hasn't been able to) find a country to take him and his family they are dead anyway if he loses.

[Mihais]

Saddam was everybody's friend until he invaded Kuweit.The Coalition was formed with Soviet approval,even if there wasn't much they could have done even if they had disagreed.They were rather busy with other things,like disintegrating.There was still a viable USSR when the Kurds got gassed and at least on paper Soviet militay power was at its height.

Russia today can send a warship,drop a few jets using under cover Russian SAM crews(if it comes to that),use the Alpha unit to protect Russian facilities and personnel,make a big hoopla diplomatically,give Assad some bucks.That's it.Something that can give the appearance of support to the Assad loyalists

[Blademaster]

Mihais,

Not really. If you draw Russia into a conflict, you risk nuclear war no matter how small it is. You do not want to go down that route. If Russia feels strongly about Syria and wants to get involve, the whole dynamics change.

[citanon]

Mihais,

Not really. If you draw Russia into a conflict, you risk nuclear war no matter how small it is. You do not want to go down that route. If Russia feels strongly about Syria and wants to get involve, the whole dynamics change.

How is Russia even going to get from A to B? Besides their naval base what do they have? If the US starts bombing tomorrow, there is exactly nothing Russia can do about it.

Let's be clear here. Our non-involvement in the Syria conflict thus far has very little to do with Russia or China or what is happening at the UN. It has everything to do with our collective "UGH" at the thought of getting into another conflict in that particular part of the world again.

Now, however, with the chemical weapons situation possibly spinning out of control, we may not get a choice. If things deteriorate further we may see chemical weapons missing, in the hands of Hezbollah, or insurgent jihadists. When it starts to look like it will get there, Russia will start WISHING that we get our militarily involved.

[Doktor]

Missiles? Air force?

Just don't think they will actually give in if USA starts open op.

[citanon]

Missiles? Air force?

Just don't think they will actually give in if USA starts open op.

How are their missiles getting there and how long is that going to take? How will their Air Force operate there? Where are the overflight paths? Where is the logistic supply chain? They have nothing and they know it.

[Blademaster]

How is Russia even going to get from A to B? Besides their naval base what do they have? If the US starts bombing tomorrow, there is exactly nothing Russia can do about it.

Let's be clear here. Our non-involvement in the Syria conflict thus far has very little to do with Russia or China or what is happening at the UN. It has everything to do with our collective "UGH" at the thought of getting into another conflict in that particular part of the world again.

Now, however, with the chemical weapons situation possibly spinning out of control, we may not get a choice. If things deteriorate further we may see chemical weapons missing, in the hands of Hezbollah, or insurgent jihadists. When it starts to look like it will get there, Russia will start WISHING that we get our militarily involved.

Yes Russia can do something about it by parking Russia planes and personnel on Syrian ground and start patrolling. If NATO shoots any of them down, it is considered an act of war to the Russians, and you risk a nuclear confrontation.

[citanon]

Yes Russia can do something about it by parking Russia planes and personnel on Syrian ground and start patrolling. If NATO shoots any of them down, it is considered an act of war to the Russians, and you risk a nuclear confrontation.

How are they going to resupply them? Where are they getting the money? Where will they park them? How do they move all over the country? How do they deal with the rebels?

Lastly, what is the advantage for Russia? Assad is fading fast. The Russians need a way to make nice with the incoming parties. Defending Assad's chemical weapons ain't it. If they are smart, they will offer to help secure them.

[Parihaka]

Russian warships docked at a naval base in Syria, according to reports on Wednesday, further separating Moscow from Western actions in the war-torn country.

The two ships made a rare call at the port in Tartus, Russia's only remaining international military base since the Soviet Union collapsed, according to AFP and Interfax reports. Russian authorities claim the stop was only to load fuel and water and make "minor repairs." This is the second time the Russian Navy has raised eyebrows in recent weeks, following reports that it docked warships off the coast of Gaza in late November, during the height of the fighting there with Israel.

This most recent maneuver comes amid a new NATO decision to send Patriot missiles to Turkey, and sharpens the divide between Russia's history of supporting the Syrian regime and pressure on the West to back the opposition fighters.

[PHOTOS: Violence Escalates into Civil War in Syria]

The presence of the navy ships has three purposes, says Michael Weiss, cochair of the Russian Studies Center at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based foreign policy think tank. Russia wants to run weapons and materiel into Syria, take Russian nationals out of the country, and send a signal to the United States that it still backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"They have military advisers helping the regime — a claim I cannot corroborate but absolutely believe," Weiss says. "But nonessential diplomatic staff and probably a lot of bi-nationals will leave."

The vessels are the landing ships Novocherkassk and Saratov, Interfax reports, assigned to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Moscow sees Tartus as a major strategic asset, according to AFP, and refers to it as a "point of material-technical supply," rather than a base. It is too shallow for large ships to dock.

[READ: Citing Iraq, Clinton Declines to Endorse Syrian Rebels]

This most recent move is consistent with Russia's likely intentions at Gaza, Weiss says, though it is less of threat than an indication of the former superpower's crumbling infrastructure.

"Frankly, it's amazing that those ships can reach Gaza at all," he says, adding the U.S. Sixth Fleet had to accompany the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov when it last sailed for Tartus in case it sunk.

More than 40,000 have been killed by the fighting in Syria since it began in early 2011.

Turkey has pushed for NATO to supply it with Patriot missiles along its border with Syria to deter regime forces from continuing their aerial and rocket barrages. U.S. News reported Tuesday that Assad, now cut off from forces outside Syria, will likely turn to ground-to-ground missile attacks to try to repel opposition fighters who have surrounded the capital city.

I'd suggest a possible forth reason is to supply an escape route for Assad and perhaps to take off the more 'sensitive' of the WMD if neccessary

[Dante]

How are their missiles getting there and how long is that going to take? How will their Air Force operate there? Where are the overflight paths? Where is the logistic supply chain? They have nothing and they know it.

How do you know the SAM's aren't there already? maybe those ships just happen to hold a extra battery or two. Remember the incident with the turkish jet? they don't need a division on the ground to make a point you know...
On the other hand I don't think USA and the russians will get in a piss!ng match over Assad and some half-terrorists rebels, things will be probably settled in the "civilized" way :)

[citanon]

How do you know the SAM's aren't there already? maybe those ships just happen to hold a extra battery or two. Remember the incident with the turkish jet? they don't need a division on the ground to make a point you know...
On the other hand I don't think USA and the russians will get in a piss!ng match over Assad and some half-terrorists rebels, things will be probably settled in the "civilized" way :)

If those SAMs are there, there will be support personnel, security, training, etc. Sending the batteries into action unprepared and unsupported will be the quickest way to lose them, or worse yet, have them end up in rebel hands to be sold to the highest bidder (US).

They don't have a division they can lift into Syria and support. They can't muster the resouces if they wanted to.

But this is besides the point, since Putin is not a fool and the Russians are no more eager than we are to throw young soldiers' lives away. They care exactly 0 about Assad once he is no longer of use.

While Assad looked like he could survive, the pre-eminent Russian aim was to keep him in power to counter balance the US. Now that that is looking less and less likely, Russian objectives will change. My guess is that they are:

Keeping CWs under control
Keeping the US from gaining too much momentum and influence
Keeping the naval base
Saving face

In that order. Notice that this has just turned into a priorities list we can make a deal on.

[Dante]

While Assad looked like he could survive, the pre-eminent Russian aim was to keep him in power to counter balance the US. Now that that is looking less and less likely, Russian objectives will change. My guess is that they are:

Keeping CWs under control
Keeping the US from gaining too much momentum and influence
Keeping the naval base
Saving face

In that order. Notice that this has just turned into a priorities list we can make a deal on.

From:

If the US starts bombing tomorrow, there is exactly nothing Russia can do about it.

was the point I was trying to make, the russians have to "play ball", like Zraver put it, and US bombings without they're accept will:gain US influence, lose the base for them and lose a lot of prestige.

Besides, except the CW thing, which I understand, why do you want to get involved in the Syrian conflict? Assad may be a dictator but the rebels aren't exactly the champions of freedom and democracy either;)

[Chogy]

IMO, if Assad loses this civil war, he has a chance to live out the remainder of his life in wealth and comfort in some form of exile.

If he deploys chemical weapons, that chance disappears. A multi-national DU hammer would drop on him and his forces. Therefore, unless he is insane and self-destructive, he won't use CW.

[zraver]

How are they going to resupply them? Where are they getting the money? Where will they park them? How do they move all over the country? How do they deal with the rebels?

Lastly, what is the advantage for Russia? Assad is fading fast. The Russians need a way to make nice with the incoming parties. Defending Assad's chemical weapons ain't it. If they are smart, they will offer to help secure them.

If Russia jumps ship she will want to trade the US Assad's chemical stock pile for assurances that all of Syria's SAM systems stay out of NATO hands. Its a deal the US will likely accept either to destroy what they can in Syria or export to the US for treaty destruction at Pinebluff (if the dismantling has been postponed because of the crisis)

[citanon]

If Russia jumps ship she will want to trade the US Assad's chemical stock pile for assurances that all of Syria's SAM systems stay out of NATO hands. Its a deal the US will likely accept either to destroy what they can in Syria or export to the US for treaty destruction at Pinebluff (if the dismantling has been postponed because of the crisis)

The thing is, I'm not sure those weapons are Russia's to trade. It seems to me that there is a significant and growing risk of proliferation here that cannot be addressed without ground forces.

Also, the NY Time on Obama's new "flexibility".... Once again the story is that there are no options. Not even threatened ones. Sounds familiar? :slap:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/wo...-flexible.html

.....

But in the past week, amid intelligence reports that some precursor chemicals have been mixed for possible use as weapons, Mr. Obama’s “red line” appears to have shifted. His warning against “moving” weapons has disappeared from his public pronouncements, as well as those of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. The new warning is that if Mr. Assad makes use of those weapons, presumably against his own people or his neighbors, he will face unspecified consequences.....

.....“We’re kind of boxed in,” an administration official said this week as intelligence agencies in the United States and its allies were trying to figure out the worrisome activity at one or two of the three dozen sites where Syria’s chemical weapons are stockpiled. “There’s an issue of presidential credibility here,” the official said. “But our options are quite limited.”.....

The chief limitation, American and Israeli officials say, is that chemical weapons sites cannot be safely bombed. “That could create the exact situation we are trying to avoid,” said one senior American military official, who like several others interviewed would speak only on the condition of anonymity.

Making things worse, many of the storage sites are near the border with Jordan, raising the possibility that any plume of chemicals created by an attack could drift over the territory of an American ally. Putting troops on the ground has never been a serious option, American officials say. .....

....

“I don’t think we’d act again unless we thought Hezbollah might get their hands on these weapons,” said one senior Israeli official. “But we’ve proven that we are willing to do it, and probably more willing than the Americans.”

....
But in recent days, that is exactly what intelligence agencies fear has happened. American officials have detected that Syrian troops have mixed small amounts of precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, at one or two storage sites — though there is no indication that Mr. Assad, whose troops are under fierce assault from rebel forces, is ready to order the use of his arsenal.

.....