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  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    Anyone have any thoughts on Trump's recent comments that the US is going to leave Syria "very soon"?
    I really don't pay attention to anything that Trump says anymore. Mostly just hot air and BS. I just pay attention to what happens, depending on whether it's in the "give an f or not" category.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    replied
    Anyone have any thoughts on Trump's recent comments that the US is going to leave Syria "very soon"?

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    My opinion, the best strategy is just to practice forbearance. Men like Erdogan, their egos eventually grow so out of control that they either self-destruct or lose power one way or another. Alienate the Turkish people, and they will remain in Mr. Erdogan's grasp for who knows how long, and possibly even ideological successors of his who may not have otherwise even come into existence.

    Mr. Erdogan's power base thus far has been built on delivering economic benefits to formerly lower class Turks, by bringing in millions of Turks into the middle class, who mostly originally come from poorer, more religious, rural backgrounds. Having secured enough support from the population, this gives him a free hand of sorts to do things we may not care for in the West.

    I do think though that this newly minted middle class has the potential to moderate more and more as time goes on, and even if they don't, their children will.

    Again, today's AKP supporters may well become CHP supporters, and if not them, then their children. I think the idea of attacking or playing chicken with Turkey is a bit like playing with fire. The so-called "solution" to what may very well be an immediate short-term problem, a problem that may otherwise pass if handled more aptly, could have devastating consequences in the long-term and produce the opposite effect, with unintended consequences in the future that are possibly an order of magnitude or more worse.

    And that brings me to the problem with us Americans. We see an immediate problem, "I have a hammer, that looks like a nail", and instead of practicing forbearance and exercising patience, we want to immediately go up in arms. We go off half-cocked, and our short-sightedness is one of our greatest flaws. And for most of us, history may as well have, for all practical purpose, just begun the moment we first learned of something on cable news.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 01 Apr 18,, 03:22.

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  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by Big K View Post
    it is YPG/PKK, not Kurds.

    if you can afford to alienate Turkey for like a long years..well go ahead. (that would include me personally btw) Turks will NEVER forget that.
    Turkey Turing US servicemen and women into virtual hostages at Incilik was the final straw for me with your government.


    but take note that US is prefering a terrorist organisation to their NATO ally and long term partner just because YPG/PKK served them for a short time.
    I've not seen any proof that the YPG has any designs on Turkey.


    ISIS is already doomed...
    No thanks to Turkey


    still before choosing PKK over Turkey, just compare these...
    I don't care about the PKK, even though it was your government that derailed the peace process.

    how big was the threat of ISIS to US or any other Western country?

    how big IS the threat of PKK to Turkey?
    Turkey needs to do something to stop the systemic alienation of its Kurdish population. Repression feeds separatist views.


    please also note that despite my dislike of Erdogan, I too will be offended by this.
    Killing Kurds in Syria doesn't hurt the PKK. Threatening to use force on Americans in Syria reminds me of a Greek saying said to an Army marching out of Anatolia and thinking it could write its own rules, "molon labe". Your government threatened war if we wouldn't let them slaughter our allies.

    i say so to give you a hint of what will the result of this.
    I say to anyone threatening war with the US, I will back my flag.

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  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by Big K View Post
    You know very well my feelings towards Erdogan.

    it is us who are trapped here....
    Indeed, I do.

    You can always escape for a moment here on WAB. :-)

    Leave a comment:


  • Big K
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    Overall, I agree with the sentiment you've expressed K.

    Erdogan, like all leaders, is just a temporal phenomenon. The Turkish nation will outlive him. While I have my disagreements with Turkish policy and thoroughly detest Erdogan as an individual, his time will pass, within our lifetime, and there's no sense in completely alienating the entire nation of Turkey for limited short-term gains. ISIS has been mostly been defeated, and it's time to take a step back and re-gain perspective.

    That being said, Erdogan is not an innocent man, and is clearly kicking quite a few own goals with regards to foreign policy, relationships with allies, turning a blind eye to and supporting Islamist/jihadist groups, and that's on him.
    You know very well my feelings towards Erdogan.

    it is us who are trapped here....

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Overall, I agree with the sentiment you've expressed K.

    Erdogan, like all leaders, is just a temporal phenomenon. The Turkish nation will outlive him. While I have my disagreements with Turkish policy and thoroughly detest Erdogan as an individual, his time will pass, within our lifetime, and there's no sense in completely alienating the entire nation of Turkey for limited short-term gains. ISIS has been mostly been defeated, and it's time to take a step back and re-gain perspective.

    That being said, Erdogan is not an innocent man, and is clearly kicking quite a few own goals with regards to foreign policy, relationships with allies, turning a blind eye to and supporting Islamist/jihadist groups, and that's on him.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 30 Mar 18,, 14:27.

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  • Big K
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Kurds are more valuable to us than Turkey. We need to start pulling our assets including nukes out of Turkey.
    it is YPG/PKK, not Kurds.

    if you can afford to alienate Turkey for like a long years..well go ahead. (that would include me personally btw) Turks will NEVER forget that.


    but take note that US is prefering a terrorist organisation to their NATO ally and long term partner just because YPG/PKK served them for a short time.


    ISIS is already doomed...


    still before choosing PKK over Turkey, just compare these...

    how big was the threat of ISIS to US or any other Western country?

    how big IS the threat of PKK to Turkey?


    please also note that despite my dislike of Erdogan, I too will be offended by this.

    i say so to give you a hint of what will the result of this.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Kurds are more valuable to us than Turkey. We need to start pulling our assets including nukes out of Turkey.
    I like the Kurds too, but I respectfully disagree. My views are more or less in line with what Gunny said earlier. To each his own.

    Leave a comment:


  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    Kurds are more valuable to us than Turkey. We need to start pulling our assets including nukes out of Turkey.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    More here: http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/15/...rom-the-brink/
    America and Turkey Need to Step Back From the Brink
    Washington and Ankara are playing a dangerous game of chicken in Syria.

    Syria is today one of the world’s most dangerous places. The United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, the Syrian regime, the Free Syrian Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Hezbollah, extremist groups of various stripes — these are among the players whose military forces are competing on the battlefield.

    As the slaughter of civilians continues, one particular danger looms especially large: The United States and Turkey are on a collision course in northern Syria. American forces are allied with a faction of Syria’s Kurds, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), against which Turkey has recently launched a military offensive. American and Turkish forces could come to blows on Syria’s battlefield, pitting two NATO members against each other and pushing the U.S.-Turkey relationship to the breaking point.

    Washington and Ankara need to step back from the brink before it is too late. The United States and Turkey still need each other to help stabilize a Middle East that is in turmoil. And with Turkish democracy already imperiled by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s autocratic turn, a breakup with the United States would likely prompt him to further tighten his grip and potentially end Turkey’s geopolitical alignment with the West — dealing both Turkey and the Atlantic community a decisive blow.

    The United States and Turkey admittedly face an inescapable clash of interests in Syria. Washington is right to stand by its military partnership with the YPG, the Kurdish militia it relied upon to lead the attack on the Islamic State and drive it from Raqqa. Alternative militias simply did not have the military wherewithal to do the job. At the same time, Ankara is fully justified in being deeply unsettled by U.S. support for the YPG due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the Kurdish group that has longed waged a separatist terrorist campaign against Turkey.

    Now that the Islamic State is on the run, the United States and Turkey should be working hard to mend fences. But they are only making matters worse. The United States is doubling down on its relationship with the YPG, viewing the partnership as a vehicle for preserving U.S. influence in postwar Syria. Feeling betrayed by Washington, Ankara is pressing ahead with its military campaign against the YPG in the Kurdish enclave of Afrin and is threatening to head next to Manbij, a town to Afrin’s east with a sizable presence of both YPG and U.S. troops. The Turkish offensive has already distracted the YPG from the final stages of the fight against the Islamic State.

    The United States and Turkey urgently need to reverse course. With the defeat of the Islamic State in sight, Washington can afford to start scaling back its support to the YPG and instead put Turkish priorities front and center. The United States is reluctant to step back from the Kurds, concerned that doing so will undercut its ability to rely on them to counter Iranian and Russian influence in Syria. But Washington is overestimating its ability to look to the Kurds to check the regional sway of Tehran and Moscow. The United States can best fulfill that task by investing in its relationship with Turkey and helping Ankara expand its influence in Syria.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Syria war: Eastern Ghouta rebels announce ceasefire

    One of the remaining Syrian rebel groups in the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta, outside Damascus, has announced a ceasefire.

    The Faylaq al-Rahman group said the UN-brokered truce was to begin in the south of the enclave at 22:00 GMT.

    It said the move would allow talks with the Russian military, Syria's ally, on guarantees for the safety of civilians.

    Rebels in another part of the area reached a similar deal earlier. Syrian troops have taken 70% of the enclave.

    In recent weeks, they have cut the Eastern Ghouta into three separate pockets.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43509540

    Syria war: First rebels leave defeated Eastern Ghouta town

    Syrian rebels and their families are being evacuated from a key town in the besieged Eastern Ghouta region as part of an agreement with the government.

    Buses carrying 1,480 people, including 600 Ahrar al-Sham rebels, drove out of Harasta as night fell, en route to the rebel-held northern province of Idlib.

    A military source said hundreds more were expected to follow on Friday.

    The evacuation deal is the first agreed since the offensive on the Eastern Ghouta was stepped up a month ago.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43509540

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  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by Dazed View Post
    And it still not in Assad/Syria/Iran/Russia hands
    Obviously not. I'm not sure who said it is or was going to be, so what prompted the statement?

    I do think there will be another tipping point in this war before another year passes, as Assad/allies and the Turks consolidate their respective positions. So far, they're mostly dancing around the edges, and largely avoiding direct confrontation. It's going to get more and more difficult to do if current trends continue. Depending on how the war in Yemen progresses, perhaps even the GCC/Jordanians will re-enter the picture.

    Of course, what I've said is purely speculative and may be completely worthless as an assessment, if one could even call it that.

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  • Dazed
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    And it still not in Assad/Syria/Iran/Russia hands

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Afrin has fallen.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43447624

    Leave a comment:

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