Syrian Civil War Developments

[Minskaya]

Yesterday (12/3/12) Barack Obama publicly warned Assad about using chemical weapons against the rebels. He said the reaction to this would be swift. The probability is high that Washington would pressure the Jordanians to allow IAF overflight rights to attack Syrian chemical-munition facilities, which have already been identified and gridded by IAF drones.

[Doktor]

Let me see if I get this straight...

Obama warns Assad to behave or IAF will neutralize his stockpiles?

In a swift action of course.

[Albany Rifles]

Minskaya, why would we not just use TLAMs and B2s with JDAMs?

Targetting info from drones as well as satellites.

Having the IAF do the attack would NOT be productive.

[astralis]

yeah, farming out our operations to the israelis would not speak well for either party.

america striking syria is one thing-- bring the israelis into it, oh boy...in fact, we'd probably be telling the israelis to please please butt out.

[Minskaya]

Having the IAF do the attack would NOT be productive.

Then the West better get off its collective ass.

Why do you think Israel approached Jordan about overflight permissions? Why do you think the Turks have requested NATO Patriot anti-missile batteries?

Because drones and satellites have detected not only the movement of Syrian chem munitions, but the initial preparation steps for their usage.

[Parihaka]

Then the West better get off its collective ass.

Why do you think Israel approached Jordan about overflight permissions? Why do you think the Turks have requested NATO Patriot anti-missile batteries?

Because drones and satellites have detected not only the movement of Syrian chem munitions, but the initial preparation steps for their usage.

Given his proclivities so far, Obama will not move. At best expect him to put pressure on the other NATO countries to take action and supply munitions. Also expect those nations to drag their feet as long as possible.

[Minskaya]

Also expect those nations to drag their feet as long as possible.

Indeed. Sitting on their collective ass because they're many time zones removed from the threat.

[Albany Rifles]

And we all know what is happenning inside the Pentagon how?

[citanon]

Yesterday (12/3/12) Barack Obama publicly warned Assad about using chemical weapons against the rebels. He said the reaction to this would be swift. The probability is high that Washington would pressure the Jordanians to allow IAF overflight rights to attack Syrian chemical-munition facilities, which have already been identified and gridded by IAF drones.

Wouldn't blowing up the munitions lead to their release? It seems to me one would need boots on the ground.

[Minskaya]

yeah, farming out our operations to the israelis would not speak well for either party. america striking syria is one thing-- bring the israelis into it, oh boy...in fact, we'd probably be telling the israelis to please please butt out.

Lol. Farming out your operations? You certainly didn't have any problem farming out Al Kibar.

[Albany Rifles]

Lol. Farming out your operations? You certainly didn't have any problem farming out Al Kibar.

Minskaya, it is a different world since Operation Orchard. The Arab Spring has provided opportunities; it has also destabilized a lot of the players in the region. Israel now has to consider your southern flank....something you really did not have to do under Mubarak.

At this stage the use of WMD by the Assad Regime would be for Regime survival against the opposition forces. I dont see anyway that even Assad and crew would use them against Israel. There is zero gain for them on this. Israeli armor and air forces would be streaking into and destroying Syrian forces so quickly in that instance. Even those idiots are aware of it.

So within that set of realities dealing with the Syrian WMD in this case is not an Israeli only mission. That is what Astralis meant.

If we can do this within the confines of NATO that is a win-win for all.

Do we, the US, have to solve all problems and issues? No. We as well as Europe are dealing with major budgetary issues right now. If NATO can handle this that is one other thing the US military does not have to handle. That said I do not believe the POTUS and DOD have turned a blind eye to this. Forces are within the region which can deal with much of this with very little retasking.

[Parihaka]

Minskaya, it is a different world since Operation Orchard. The Arab Spring has provided opportunities; it has also destabilized a lot of the players in the region. Israel now has to consider your southern flank....something you really did not have to do under Mubarak.

At this stage the use of WMD by the Assad Regime would be for Regime survival against the opposition forces. I dont see anyway that even Assad and crew would use them against Israel. There is zero gain for them on this. Israeli armor and air forces would be streaking into and destroying Syrian forces so quickly in that instance. Even those idiots are aware of it.

So within that set of realities dealing with the Syrian WMD in this case is not an Israeli only mission. That is what Astralis meant.

If we can do this within the confines of NATO that is a win-win for all.

Do we, the US, have to solve all problems and issues? No. We as well as Europe are dealing with major budgetary issues right now. If NATO can handle this that is one other thing the US military does not have to handle. That said I do not believe the POTUS and DOD have turned a blind eye to this. Forces are within the region which can deal with much of this with very little retasking.

Assuming of course they remain in Assads hands. What happens if his regime fails and they fall into the hands of the various rebel factions?

[Albany Rifles]

Assuming of course they remain in Assads hands. What happens if his regime fails and they fall into the hands of the various rebel factions?

So Pari, which will cause less overall problems....a strike by NATO with French, Polish, German aircraft from a Turkish base, a US strike or an Israeli air strike?

Don't know about you but I vote 1 or 2. Not saying 3 isn't effective but.....

[Parihaka]

So Pari, which will cause less overall problems....a strike by NATO with French, Polish, German aircraft from a Turkish base, a US strike or an Israeli air strike?

Don't know about you but I vote 1 or 2. Not saying 3 isn't effective but.....

I would certainly vote 1 or if not then 2, but I'm unsure this will take place in a timely manner, if at all.

There has been plenty of time for these assets to be taken out, the justifications being the current instability and their mere existance as causus belli.

Nothing however has happened other than Turkey getting permission to deploy patriot at forward bases. The longer it goes and with the increasing instability including apparently movement of the weapons and making them useable, the more extreme the risk becomes.
I would certainly regard Israel as being entirely justified in taking them out, given the inaction of 1 & 2.

[citanon]

So Pari, which will cause less overall problems....a strike by NATO with French, Polish, German aircraft from a Turkish base, a US strike or an Israeli air strike?

Don't know about you but I vote 1 or 2. Not saying 3 isn't effective but.....

Is a strike here really an option? Once the weapons are assembled it seems to me one would need ground forces to avoid accidentally gassing the populous unless all sites are far from population centers or the USAF has weapons that can magically sustain high temperature combustion at all storage sites.

Of course one could try to blow up the precursors but those exposed to the resulting HF cloud may find themselves wishing for a quicker and less painful death via Sarin.

The two remaining options are paying off the Syrian soldiers guarding the compounds and then securing them with ground forces, or seizing the compounds outright and securing them with ground forces. A huge and risky operation. One requiring no fewer than 150 people for planning alone:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/wo...isis.html?_r=0

and possibly up to 75000 ground forces:

Contingency Plans for Syria's Chemical Weapons | JINSA Online

Any party's ability to handle this one without US lead is doubtful. What is not in doubt is that no one WANTS this one on their lap.