Syrian Civil War Developments

[Hitman817]

So fellas, if Syria goes and Iran sinks further, will Turkey get back its Ottoman groove? :)

We are not going to build a new empire, what would be in it for Turkey and Turks, nothing. We just need to stop those a-holes from killing eachother, so they may buy our products.

[Quotar]

We are not going to build a new empire, what would be in it for Turkey and Turks, nothing. We just need to stop those a-holes from killing eachother, so they may buy our products.

They can buy our products when they kill each other, sadly.

[citanon]

We are not going to build a new empire, what would be in it for Turkey and Turks, nothing. We just need to stop those a-holes from killing eachother, so they may buy our products.

Well, I dare say that's as sure a way as any to start on the slippery slope of empire building.

[Parihaka]

We are not going to build a new empire, what would be in it for Turkey and Turks, nothing. We just need to stop those a-holes from killing eachother, so they may buy our products.

Wow. This is exactly what made America great.

[cyppok]

I think what's holding the 'invasion' back is status quo consideration. Ergo the calculus of expectations of post facto fallout from neighbors.

Today you "liberate" Syria it shifts towards a theocratic regime and then it turns against you, theoretically possible.
Iran funds PKK and Alawite rebels with both becoming more active and gaining sanctuary in Iraq/Iran similar to what Syrian rebels receive in Turkey.
Literally dozens of more things possible.

What I think will happen is something so subtle that we simply do not see it.
Everyone has blow-back after these things nobody knows what it is at the time of occurrence it seems.

Be wary of playing Turkey’s great game - Telegraph

Anyways a few weeks before it all starts or less?

[TTL]

BBC News - Syrian passenger plane forced to land in Turkey

I wonder how Russians will respond

[Big K]

now enjoy the 3rd world war mister Bush...these dumbass islamist morons - so called akp - will trigger it.

and those who supported it will be the first of many responsible. in this case this is mr.Bush!!!

[cyppok]

BBC News - Syrian passenger plane forced to land in Turkey

I wonder how Russians will respond

I am sure whatever weapons Russia sends go through ports or Iran no point sending it by plane.

The supposition of NATO going to war on behalf of Turkey to protect it from Syria is interesting. Kind of a wink and a nod 'they hit you right'?

The ramifications of it happening would be very dire. It would basically be open season for any kind of conduct by any other world state because all of this politiking and 'western standards' fall by the wayside once reality of "you do as you like" as long as it is justified enough and has been constructed to create plausible deny-ability on world stage.

Future gets very murky after these kinds of events.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/wo...s.html?hp&_r=0

I really wonder if Iran simply sent in a division or so to roam inside Syria once the invasion was underway and the whole war on 3rd party soil occurred via both proxy and on ground elements. Iran doesn't really have much to loose its' isolated already for them the perception that after Syria falls they are next is very apparent and prolonging the engagement or a struggle would create a transition of post-facto reality.

I kind of get this feeling that Syria gets re-divided. Parts of the south go to Jordan. Alawites go Independent. Kurds de facto leave as well. All you get is a big country of a population of about 20+ million that is land locked and Sunni mostly homogenous and very angry and armed. I could see them turning to Iraqi Sunnis to unite and then go after everyone that left both the Shiites in Iraq and Syria and you get this humongous free for all. With Kurds in the North and Arab warlords in the South each with about 20-30 million people roaming around. You also have to consider that everyone would be arming everyone else because whomever wins can pay. Ergo Kurds have oil and Syria would be able to transit oil/gas to ports via pipelines. Also regimes around the neighborhood would pour money for arms as well.

[Big K]

I am sure whatever weapons Russia sends go through ports or Iran no point sending it by plane....

they say that those parts were in diplomatic boxes. so this makes sense cuz of diplomatic protection...

[Parihaka]

I am sure whatever weapons Russia sends go through ports or Iran no point sending it by plane.

The supposition of NATO going to war on behalf of Turkey to protect it from Syria is interesting. Kind of a wink and a nod 'they hit you right'?

NATO will go to war when NATO decides it will go to war. As a member of NATO Turkey's armed forces are required to abide by NATO's decision. The only circumstances Turkey can act preemptively is in defence, i.e. it faces an invasion. Any other circumstance, without NATO's argreement, it stands alone and possibly faces sanction.
NATO is extremely unlikely to approve an agressive war against Syria.

[Mihais]

now enjoy the 3rd world war mister Bush...these dumbass islamist morons - so called akp - will trigger it.

and those who supported it will be the first of many responsible. in this case this is mr.Bush!!!

There is a pattern.Bosnia,US supported the muslims.Kosovo,again,the muslims.arab sprin-o hail the democratic forces of sharia.Libya,saw NATO fighting alongside AQ.Iraq saw the emergence of a regime that works,wisely,with the Iranians.A-stan,is a hellhole now and even a bigger one in the perspective?(and we avoided like plague all things that could turn it otherwise).All things considered,US showed pretty poor strategic insight.An adept of conspiracy theory would consider it criminal.

Regarding Turkey,the Kemalists were about the only sane people in the area.Ataturk knew his electorate when he made the Army the power behind the secular state.Count on modern idiots from the West to ruin that.

[tankie]

The aircraft has been allowed on its way , Russia demands an explanation while Syria accuses Turkey of piracy . :confu:

[cyppok]

they say that those parts were in diplomatic boxes. so this makes sense cuz of diplomatic protection...

Doesn't seem like there was anything there maybe some other equipment since it was let go.

[Big K]

Doesn't seem like there was anything there maybe some other equipment since it was let go.

seems so.

these islamist idiots and their supporters from every corner of the world...i hate them...i really, deeply, sincerely, frankly, intensely hate them...

and this includes past and current US's ME policy too. they ruined what Ataturk left us...oh but with great aid from every corner of the world...

no-offense to any American citizens...

[Quotar]

I hold a different view. I believe in the democratic expression of the people's will. That this looks Islamist is an obvious result. That the Islamists moderate as a result is also an obvious result. Something along the same lines could be said for the Christian right in the US, frankly, as regards policy.

We just have to let it play out. The new US foreign policy of allowing regional forces to find a new balance of power.