Syrian Civil War Developments

[tbm3fan]

Not fair. The region was a clusterfuck dating back to the Roman Empire with kingdoms vying for Roman, Persian, Arab, and Turk support against each other before the Brits and French got involved

True, it has been messed up since Cain killed Abel. Yet during Ottoman rule it was fairly quiet until the British and French broke up the Ottoman rule. You know the quickest way to start a fight is to draw a line in the sand and the British weren't artists.

[tbm3fan]

If Trump is prepared to dump the Khurds unconditionally as he has stated in the past even though they have been a vital part of America and the west's anti jihardist strategy for decades now? Then Erfagan will have free reign to push away from the Turkish border and all the back into Iraq/possibly further.

Well we all know Trump doesn't believe in doing favors free of charge. However, I am not sure that Erdogan would want to push deep in the eastern half of Syria to push the Kurds into Iraq. That is a hell of a lot of territory.

[Monash]

Well we all know Trump doesn't believe in doing favors free of charge. However, I am not sure that Erdogan would want to push deep in the eastern half of Syria to push the Kurds into Iraq. That is a hell of a lot of territory.

True but when you look at a map? It's mostly relatively flat, empty desert. Occupy the towns along the few main roads in the area and you've reduced any opposition to small groups trying to hide from overhead surveillance in whatever goat herders hamlet they can find.

[Bigfella]

Well we all know Trump doesn't believe in doing favors free of charge. However, I am not sure that Erdogan would want to push deep in the eastern half of Syria to push the Kurds into Iraq. That is a hell of a lot of territory.

There is an alternative scenario where Turkiye provides heavy air & logistics support for its SNA proxies as they do the grunt work. Additionally, the new government wants & needs friends with resources. It already has good relations with Erdogan and, like everyone else in the Middle East, wants to stop the Kurds getting their own homeland. It doesn't seem a stretch that the new government might also do some grunt work on the ground with Turkish support.

Even with the US supporting the Kurds this might succeed. If the US effectively withdraws support it would be even easier.

[Ironduke]

Looks like a lot of side deals going on.

I think the Russians are just being allowed to leave, with their lives, in an orderly fashion. Convoys of vehicles and troops have been arriving and are being evacuated from Khmeimim Airbase, an S-400 system was shown in a satellite photo being dismantled for air transport. There's footage of rebel fighters giving the middle finger and waving their shoes at Russian evacuation convoys.

Russia has also suspended grain supplies to Syria; Ukraine has offered to step in.

[Ironduke]

True, it has been messed up since Cain killed Abel. Yet during Ottoman rule it was fairly quiet until the British and French broke up the Ottoman rule. You know the quickest way to start a fight is to draw a line in the sand and the British weren't artists.

Everywhere was messed up from the beginning of history. Some of us have had the good luck to be born or live in nations where things like reason, the Enlightenment, and the concepts of the rule of law and natural rights more or less firmly took hold.

Syria and Lebanon weren't quiet under Ottoman rule, there was constant internal warfare, massacres, rebellions, etc. French/British rule did not establish some new trajectory or introduce instability to the region, every generation that lived under the Ottomans experienced constant strife and fighting no different than the 20th/21st centuries.

[Amled]

The Law of Unforeseen Consequence
“The actions of people, and especially of governments, always have effects that are unanticipated or "unintended."

This Law does seem to be especially applicable when it comes to Russia’s attempts to stick their noses into Islamic countries.
In 1980 they attempted to meddle with the affairs of Afghanistan, and they departed; flags flying, but with their tails between their legs.
Yet this led to the Taliban coming into prominence. Definitely not a good thing!
Their latest endeavor in Syria has also come up short. Again they are sent packing, and they have lost their major bastion in the Med. A good thing!
But unfortunately this means that the men and equipment they are withdrawing from Syria, can now be deployed in Ukraine! Again not a good thing

[rj1]

Everywhere was messed up from the beginning of history. Some of us have had the good luck to be born or live in nations where things like reason, the Enlightenment, and the concepts of the rule of law and natural rights more or less firmly took hold.

Syria and Lebanon weren't quiet under Ottoman rule, there was constant internal warfare, massacres, rebellions, etc. French/British rule did not establish some new trajectory or introduce instability to the region, every generation that lived under the Ottomans experienced constant strife and fighting no different than the 20th/21st centuries.

I need to watch Lawrence of Arabia one day.

[rj1]

Tried to dive into this last night but there was not much mainstream information out there regarding what Turkey are doing right now. (Go to Twitter and you can have your pick of the passionate Turkish take or the passionate Kurdish take. There also look to be Armenian volunteers aiding the Kurds and fighting the Turks in Rojava, although how large and effective no idea.) An American-brokered ceasefire between the Turkish-backed SNA and the Kurdish SDF that lasted 4 days ended yesterday and was not renewed. Appears the SNA goals are to take Manbij and Kobane.

As far as HTS, there are starting to be murmurs in mainstream circles from Syrian opposition figures that are not HTS that HTS are controlling everything. The administration in Damascus were all brought from Idlib where HTS were administration prior to sweeping Assad out from power. All "official" diplomatic communications with other nations have been HTS only.

[Ironduke]

Something ironic that many may not realize... Abu Mohammad al-Julani, real name Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, his father's cousin was a vice-president of Syria from 2006 to 2014, and the foreign minister before that from 1984 to 2006. The ex-VP, ex-foreign minister cousin is still alive, presumably still in Syria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farouk_al-Sharaa

[Bigfella]

Tried to dive into this last night but there was not much mainstream information out there regarding what Turkey are doing right now. (Go to Twitter and you can have your pick of the passionate Turkish take or the passionate Kurdish take. There also look to be Armenian volunteers aiding the Kurds and fighting the Turks in Rojava, although how large and effective no idea.) An American-brokered ceasefire between the Turkish-backed SNA and the Kurdish SDF that lasted 4 days ended yesterday and was not renewed. Appears the SNA goals are to take Manbij and Kobane.

As far as HTS, there are starting to be murmurs in mainstream circles from Syrian opposition figures that are not HTS that HTS are controlling everything. The administration in Damascus were all brought from Idlib where HTS were administration prior to sweeping Assad out from power. All "official" diplomatic communications with other nations have been HTS only.

I seriously doubt HTS will be giving up control of government any time soon. That doesn't mean they will be as brutal & repressive as Assad, but there are plenty of shades of authoritarian rule. Additionally, they are still at war and have just absorbed millions of people who were implaccably opposed to them a few weeks ago. We won't know the ultimate shape of the new Syrian state for a while, but when it does emerge it won't be a democratic paradise. Not even close.

[Monash]

I seriously doubt HTS will be giving up control of government any time soon. That doesn't mean they will be as brutal & repressive as Assad, but there are plenty of shades of authoritarian rule. Additionally, they are still at war and have just absorbed millions of people who were implaccably opposed to them a few weeks ago. We won't know the ultimate shape of the new Syrian state for a while, but when it does emerge it won't be a democratic paradise. Not even close.

Their problem is going to be that if they don't give the other groups a seat at the table in a few months time HTS will be where Assad was. A central government at war with several different militia groups with everyone controlling a patch work of territory. (And the wheels on the bus ....)

[Bigfella]

Their problem is going to be that if they don't give the other groups a seat at the table in a few months time HTS will be where Assad was. A central government at war with several different militia groups with everyone controlling a patch work of territory. (And the wheels on the bus ....)

The problem is that there is no magic formula for creating a stable government in this situation. Too harsh - face armed opposition which might overthrow you. Too soft - face armed opposition that might overthrow you.

They will try to consolidate power over as much territory as quickly as they can and hope that can buy enough time to construct a viable state. A lot of that will depend on outside support, who gets it, who doesn't & how much. The internal cohesion of these groups is also a big factor - wil lthe victors fall out over the spoils.

Lots more questions than answers for now.

[Officer of Engineers]

The problem is that there is no magic formula for creating a stable government in this situation.

You need dominance in 2 of 3 groups: army, money, and the people. The HST has none of the three.

[Monash]

You need dominance in 2 of 3 groups: army, money, and the people. The HST has none of the three.

They do have Erdogan's and therefore Turkish Government's support so at the least the 'arms' section is ticked off.