Syrian Civil War Developments

[Monash]

Next cab off the rank - Georgia!

[Ironduke]

Homs has fallen to HTS and the SNA. Reports are every regime official in Damascus who are not cutting deals with the rebels to surrender the city are hurriedly evacuating by helicopter. Most if not all viable ground routes out of the capital are cut. Multiple Russian airlifters are carrying out evacuations from Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia province.

3 years, 3 months, and 3 weeks after the fall of Kabul, the Russians get to experience their own version, with what I think is relatively worse strategic and geopolitical consequences for them. All those years and Russian blood and treasure spent in Syria, all of this abandoned equipment and wasted aid, it was all for naught.

Looking forward to the next Russian/Iranian domino to topple.

[Monash]

William Spaniel just put up a post about 48 hours ago discussing how 'bad' this was for Putin compared to other (bad) events this month. It was already out of date in terms of how far/quickly the rebels had advanced but is still worth a look because it puts this issue into perspective along side all of Russia's many other misfortunes.

[Bigfella]

If Homs has gone then Assad is gone, especially with rebels south of Damascus coming out of the woodwork and Hezbollah taking a break. It is going to be a free for all now. What a mess.

If Trump withdraws support for the Kurds then the situation may 'resolve' relatively quickly. The new regime will be able to get Turkish support by taking back refugees & taking on the Kurds, which might explain why they are co-operating with whoever the Turkish proxies in Syria are.

Bad news for Putin and Hezbollah, probably not good news for many people.

[Ironduke]

Turns out my estimate of 24-48 hours was very conservative.

The end draws nigh, the regime has 30 minutes to perhaps an hour left. Assad is currently being hunted in Damascus, and rebel armor is moving on the presidential palace now.

[Ironduke]

If Assad has not already been surreptitiously been evacuated, we may see him get the Gaddafi treatment.

[Officer of Engineers]

If Assad has not already been surreptitiously been evacuated, we may see him get the Gaddafi treatment.

I would not lose sleep.

[Monash]

You have to think the Russians would have already taken steps to get him and his immediate family out of the country, that or they'd have arranged an unfortunate accident. The problem is he no doubt has a lot of valuable intel he could share with other interested parties/nations. Assuming of course he wasn't immediately 'Gaddafied upon capture.

[Ironduke]

Neither would I. But I suspect Assad has fled Syria already.

[Ironduke]

It's official, the rebels are in complete control of Damascus. Assad was apparently able to escape. When, whether minutes, hours, or days ago, unknown at this point.

Not long ago, one last plane, an Il-76, left Damascus, and has since "descended" near the Lebanese border while overflying the Tartus Province. Whether or not Assad was on the plane, unknown, or if it landed or was shot down, but at the very least I think it likely VIPs from the former regime were on board.

https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1865591052683395292

[InExile]

I haven't been following the developments of Syrian civil war recently, so the complete collapse of the Assad regime has come as a bit of a surprise. It definitely makes sense that with the defeat of Hezbollah, the Russian preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran distracted by Israeli actions, the Assad regime turned out to be much weaker than expected. However, I had not heard much about the main group involved in the offensive until recently , the HTS. They appear to be an Islamist organization with links to Al Qaeda; as far as I can tell they are not supported by any of the major powers involved in the civil war, and designated as a terrorist organization by many; so I am left wondering at how they managed to pull off the complete collapse of Assad in just two weeks

[Monash]

I haven't been following the developments of Syrian civil war recently, so the complete collapse of the Assad regime has come as a bit of a surprise. It definitely makes sense that with the defeat of Hezbollah, the Russian preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran distracted by Israeli actions, the Assad regime turned out to be much weaker than expected. However, I had not heard much about the main group involved in the offensive until recently , the HTS. They appear to be an Islamist organization with links to Al Qaeda; as far as I can tell they are not supported by any of the major powers involved in the civil war, and designated as a terrorist organization by many; so I am left wondering at how they managed to pull off the complete collapse of Assad in just two weeks

According to news reports I've read they apparently severed ties with AQ some time ago and for what it's worth given how little time has elapsed? So far there are no reports of mass 'revenge' killings, which as far as it goes is a 'plus' I guess. If the world is lucky we might be seeing a 'black swan event' unfolding i.e. an Islamist group that is astute enough to recognize that it's best interests are served by if not overtly working 'with' the west then at least not actively seeking a fight with it! Plus there are other rebel elements they'll have to work with long term including some (the Kurds) who are supported by the US.

Either way? We'll know in the next few months (if not sooner) which way they're going to swing. One thing is certain though, they didn't achieve this victory on their own. So that means they have to reach an accommodation with the other major rebel groups eventually - unless of course they really do want anarchy to ensue. Which I doubt is the case.

[Amled]

A maybe bit dour and cynical comment on the regime change in Syria.
One that I sincerely hope coming events will put to bed, as if any people deserve some peace it’s the people of Syria!
That said, I do remember some years ago when a popular movement, in the same area, sent another hated despot packing!
Here I’m referring to Iran, when they toppled the Shah, only to see him replaced, with something much worse!
It’s the inclusion of HTS (Tahrir al-Sham) an Islamic Jihadist group; on the terrorist list in may nations, that is at the head of the uprising, that’s worrying.
But then again with the many differing groups involved in the takeover, maybe that might be inconsequential.

[Ironduke]

Latakia and Tartus provinces didn't end up becoming final redoubts for the SAA/Assad regime. The rebels have swept those provinces now too, with the only formerly regime-held territories not overrun yet being Russian-occupied airbase at Latakia and the naval base at Tartus. They have also advanced to Manbij.

I'd be curious to know what the rebels plan to do with any Russian POWs - indications are there are a not insubstantial number.

Meanwhile the Israelis are conducting airstrikes in southern Syria and planning to establish a buffer zone for the Golan Heights.

We know that there was a final flight out of Damascus before the fall of the city - an Il-76, which may have been heading for Latakia. It seems increasingly evident was likely shot down or crashed over the Tartus Province. There are also indications that al-Assad left Damascus... but did he make it anywhere?
https://www.twz.com/news-features/th...his-escape-jet

This is just pure conjecture/theory at this point. Somebody important was on board though, and the plane didn't make it to its destination. If it was shot down, by whom?

[Officer of Engineers]