Syrian Civil War Developments

[snapper]

I was thinking maybe some deal with Turkey. Relations between the two have been improving ever so slightly since the Khashoggi affair

Could be even simpler, nothing interesting left to do

Daesh aims for a global caliphate, they have chapters in numerous places. People funding them are cosmopilitan and educated.

Millenials choice of terrorist instead of dad's AQ

Frankly I think it was partly at least a 'snap decision' to change the news agenda after Flynn saying he was not "trapped" and the whole Trumpkin family being banned from managing a 'charity' for their abuse of their former 'charity'; You have a family in charge of nuclear weapons who cannot be trusted to manage a charity... There could of course be a Turkish input in the insanity but who can say what a peanut thinks?

[troung]

Don't care if they are Wombles. They fought with you (again). Trumpkin is betraying US allies and that I do not think is wise.

They didn't fight with us "again" as this is the PKK. The PKK is a group which is on the US terror list and are the mortal enemies of the second largest military in NATO, who happens to be ready to go in and smash them. America did not sign on to protect an unpopular Marxist ethno state in North East Syria (as a base for raids into Turkey) against the Turkish Republic forever. The PKK got a lot out of the deal: territory, weapons, money, and got saved from ISIS. They have begun to murder civilians suspected of "collaborating" with Turkey; recently set off a truck bomb in an Afrin market; are repressing the Arab population of places they have taken; they still do business with Assad and keep open channels; with Russian close air support they cut the FSA supply lines during the siege of Aleppo; and they celebrate the PKK angle despite American attempts to rebrand them.

Trump kept making it clear America was going to withdraw from Syria, this shouldn't be a surprise.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/...hs-report.html

Mattis countered, arguing that an immediate withdrawal could be catastrophic and was logistically impossible to pull off in any responsible way, without risking the return of the Islamic State and other terrorist groups in newly liberated territories, the officials said. Mattis floated a one-year withdrawal as an alternative.
Trump then relented — but only slightly, telling his aides they could have five or six months to complete the mission to destroy the Islamic State and then get out, according to the officials. Trump also indicated that he did not want to hear in October that the military had been unable to fully defeat the Islamic State and had to remain in Syria for longer

As I said people rolling on the floor gnashing their teeth at the latest Trump action seem not to know who is who.

[Double Edge]

Frankly I think it was partly at least a 'snap decision' to change the news agenda after Flynn saying he was not "trapped" and the whole Trumpkin family being banned from managing a 'charity' for their abuse of their former 'charity'; You have a family in charge of nuclear weapons who cannot be trusted to manage a charity... There could of course be a Turkish input in the insanity but who can say what a peanut thinks?

Thing that gets me is the Israelis aren't very keen about this pull out. You'd think he'd run it past them before with that son in law of his. Maybe the Israelis are good, they were already doing ops in Syria before the US got there.

Iran will benefit, Israel will lose from US pullout | JPost | Dec 20 2018

Since it is Iran that wins is this now to do with Iran and a future deal ?

Who benefits as US withdraws from Syria? Not Israel | Ynet (op-ed) | Dec 20 2018

And it helps Putin, people there are going to now talk to Moscow to solve their problems

The White House's announcement means that the US is letting Russia and Iran, and to a certain extent Turkey, shape both their own interests and the new order that will form in Syria at the end of the civil war.

Turkey, Iran & Russia are up as a result of this sudden move.

When the American military advisers return home, the US will lose an important asset that would grant it influence over whatever surfaces in Syria after the civil war.

That's the perplexing part. I thought the whole point of going to Syria towards the end was to get a say in what happened post civil war

How Is The World Reacting To Trump's Decision To Withdraw From Syria? | NPR | Dec 20 1018

[Skywatcher]

Honestly, I don't think the PYG/PKK should be very representative of Kurds.

The ruling KDP in the Kurdish Regional Government hates them (the Barzanis are afraid of the PKK color revolutioning them, for obvious reasons), and Kurds generally tend to be pretty conservative, especially in Syria and Turkey, so the PYG's socialist policies in Syria haven't made them very popular in Kurdish majority areas (to say nothing of the Arab areas).

And then there's the whole foreign fighters thing. There are a lot of foreign fighters of the left wing variety right now in the PYG who are going to be coming back to France, Germany, Greece, Spain, United Kingdom....

[snapper]

I do not give a damn about their politics or faction. They fought beside your guys. A duty is owed as matter of honour and policy - for if you let down one ally who will trust you? It concedes your allies to death, the rebirth of Daesh, the exansion of Iranian influence and arms supply and leaves in place a know war criminal. It is the most dangerous - and long term most costly - decision that could have been made. It was clearly made without the support of Maddiss and the staff but sent a Christmas present to Trumpkin's wannabe dictator friends before he get's imprisoned.

[troung]

I do not give a damn about their politics or faction.

You didn't know who they were past a vague idea of their ethnic origins. The PKK is on America's list of terrorist groups and NATO considers it a terrorist group.The local Arab population of the places they run despise them and their ideology and non-ISIS attacks on the PKK/YPG has been occurring.

They fought beside your guys

America rescued them in the first place, built them up, gave them funds, and they are using all of that to still stage raids into Turkey, run death squads, helped Putin cut Aleppo off in 2016, have kept open channels with the Regime, and have been accused of slow walking finishing off that remaining pocket so they can keep America there and themselves safe from payback from Turkey. They are in such a good position, far stronger than the were before America provided them with considerable support, because they were smart enough to leverage America's need for a proxy who wasn't at war with Assad. This is such a toxic issue America actually promised Turkey we were going to take the weapons we provided to the SDF (PKK/YPG) back.

A duty is owed as matter of honour and policy - ?

Nothing is owed past the four corners of the agreement. Trump was very clear the US would be leaving, he ran on getting out of Syria after breaking ISIS, a few months ago the issue came up again and again he wanted the US out.

If any moral duty was owed it is in exchange for huge amounts of no-strings American support they received the PKK/YPG should have burned those Apo banners, dropped their crazy ideology, held free elections in the places they took (as opposed to PKK deciding who can run for local dog catcher), and stopped supporting attacks on Turkish security forces and civilians. Instead we have the misinformed demanding America prop up a creepy un-democractic ethno-communist state which is the sworn enemy of the second largest military in NATO, forever.

Moral duties only seem to run in the direction of people fleecing the American taxpayer.

for if you let down one ally who will trust you

America doesn't lack for hangers-on. Dropping support for a terrorist group in one corner of Syria won't drop other hangers-on off the books.

It was clearly made without the support of Maddiss and the staff but sent a Christmas present to Trumpkin's wannabe dictator friends before he get's imprisoned.

America just did Turkey, a NATO ally, a favor of sorts. Turkey the second largest military in NATO considers the Communist PKK/YPG as a mortal enemy, such an enemy they threatened war with Syria in the 1990s over their hosting PKK leadership. A month ago America just put bounties on the heads of certain PKK leaders,.

It concedes your allies to death, the rebirth of Daesh, the exansion of Iranian influence and arms supply and leaves in place a know war criminal

1. Putin and Erdgoan are more then capable of smashing up whatever ISIS is left. The Axis forces are running anti-ISIS operations in that area and have shown themselves perfectly willing to expand at the expense of ISIS. Assad/Putin taking a pummeling in the process isn't the worst thing.
2. Iranian influence, they already have influence in most of the country and the feared land-bridge. The PKK/YPG, which was such a good ally to use against ISIS because they weren't at war with Assad (no joke), weren't going to be forcing the IRGC out.
3. Assad was staying regardless of this decision. The PKK/YPG wasn't going to be throwing him out, they worked together to a limited degree in the Afrin fighting, they worked together in Aleppo, they didn't clash much outside of the land grabs and NDF issues in Hasakah and Qamishli, were in talks a few months ago, and they are talking already.
4. The death of the PKK/YPG: They are likely to crawl back to their old ally Assad.

[snapper]

You didn't know who they were past a vague idea of their ethnic origins. The PKK is on America's list of terrorist groups and NATO considers it a terrorist group.The local Arab population of the places they run despise them and their ideology and non-ISIS attacks on the PKK/YPG has been occurring.

It does not matter about their politics. In WW2 the Western democracies allied with the Soviets not because they were 'nice' but because the enemy of my enemy is my friend. How many US troops have been lost in Syria? 4? 5? How many Kurds? Around 9,000.

America rescued them in the first place, built them up, gave them funds, and they are using all of that to still stage raids into Turkey, run death squads, helped Putin cut Aleppo off in 2016, have kept open channels with the Regime, and have been accused of slow walking finishing off that remaining pocket so they can keep America there and themselves safe from payback from Turkey. They are in such a good position, far stronger than the were before America provided them with considerable support, because they were smart enough to leverage America's need for a proxy who wasn't at war with Assad. This is such a toxic issue America actually promised Turkey we were going to take the weapons we provided to the SDF (PKK/YPG) back.

You should not go around making promises you cannot keep to the Turkish tin pot autocrat when you are allied with the Kurds.

Nothing is owed past the four corners of the agreement. Trump was very clear the US would be leaving, he ran on getting out of Syria after breaking ISIS, a few months ago the issue came up again and again he wanted the US out

What Trumpkin says he usually self contradicts the same day. Did he not also say he was going to "destroy ISIS" which "Obama founded ISIS" by withdrawing too early from Iraq? Then he says "ISIS is defeated" but the Turks will finish them off... finish what? If they are 'defeated' what is left to finish? Both cannot be true. Of course Erdogan has been promising to "finish ISIS" since 2013 but bought oil and gas from them, allowed people through Turkey to join them and has nothing but attack the Kurds... your allies.

If any moral duty was owed it is in exchange for huge amounts of no-strings American support they received the PKK/YPG should have burned those Apo banners, dropped their crazy ideology, held free elections in the places they took (as opposed to PKK deciding who can run for local dog catcher), and stopped supporting attacks on Turkish security forces and civilians. Instead we have the misinformed demanding America prop up a creepy un-democractic ethno-communist state which is the sworn enemy of the second largest military in NATO, forever.

I do not care if you find the Kurdish political system unpleasant. They do not at least chop people up in their Consulates like Trumpkin's best pal in KSA. It is NOT the point who appoints the 'local dog catcher'. They provided the vast majority of ground forces (and took the casualties) in the fight against Daesh. Were they consulted before Trumpkins off the cuff 'withdrawal' announcement? No not even the Brits or French were consulted. What does that say to your allies? Or are Britain and France also "other hangers-on"? What does it say to the Arabs, the Israelis? That Putin is a better ally because the US cannot be trusted? What does it say to North and South Korea? I mean I disagreed with Obamas Iraq and Syria policies which Trumpkin crticised himself but now repeats in a worse way.

Moral duties only seem to run in the direction of people fleecing the American taxpayer.

It is nothing to do with "fleecing the American taxpayer" it is all about security. After 9/11 NATO went to Afghanistan not because it was fun or easy but because AQ had to be taken out or more such attacks would follow in the Western homelands. Now you have let Daesh off the hook and can expect further terrorist attacks, gifted the Muscovites and Iran a semi imperial influence in the Middle East and betrayed your allies while flushing US credibility down the toilet. Yet Trumpkin continues lying about how the US is 'respected' again... It's just not true. That is why Mattis resigned. You and your traitor President are no longer to be trusted, even by your allies. If you think that makes the US safer you are living in unicorn land.

[troung]

It does not matter about their politics. In WW2 the Western democracies allied with the Soviets not because they were 'nice' but because the enemy of my enemy is my friend. How many US troops have been lost in Syria? 4? 5? How many Kurds? Around 9,000.

The PKK isn't the Soviet steamroller, the mutual enemy is mostly gone, and the ISIS leftovers can be finished off by regional nations.

You should not go around making promises you cannot keep to the Turkish tin pot autocrat when you are allied with the Kurds.

Erdogan's unpleasant government is more democratic than the PKK, promises like that, not providing TOWs, and the failed SDF rebrand show the US knew the support for the PKK was unpleasant and that our support was sold as being transactional.

I do not care if you find the Kurdish political system unpleasant. They do not at least chop people up in their Consulates like Trumpkin's best pal in KSA. It is NOT the point who appoints the 'local dog catcher'. They provided the vast majority of ground forces (and took the casualties) in the fight against Daesh. Were they consulted before Trumpkins off the cuff 'withdrawal' announcement? No not even the Brits or French were consulted. What does that say to your allies? Or are Britain and France also "other hangers-on"? What does it say to the Arabs, the Israelis? That Putin is a better ally because the US cannot be trusted? What does it say to North and South Korea? I mean I disagreed with Obamas Iraq and Syria policies which Trumpkin crticised himself but now repeats in a worse way.

1. KSA has lots of oil and investments in the West, the PKK doesn't.
2. South Korea isn't the PKK.
3. Trump has been clear he wanted to leave well before he decided to pull out, he didn't need to consult France. America staying in Syria wasn't a decision they get to make.
4. America allegedly did talk to the UK about it, whatever that means in practice.
5. Arabs and Putin: Putin is showing himself to be a "good ally" because he will stand beside people who gas their dissidents and put his own air force to work hitting hospitals. The people bitching about Trump and MBS on one hand and then America losing influence with these tyrants on the other don't seem to grasp that. America dropping a Kurdish terrorist group in North East Syria won't lose America any worthwhile "allies", taking a human rights stance on "domestic matters" in Arab states may.
6. The PKK sets off truck bombs in markets, runs suicide bombers in Turkey, murders Turkish teachers, recently developed the habit of filming its members dragging Syrian civilians out from the homes and murdering them as Turkish collaborators, has maintained good relations with team Assad (the VKS has flown CAS missions in support of PKK operations against the FSA), and has fired at Syrian protesters. You really have no idea who the PKK is.

It is nothing to do with "fleecing the American taxpayer" it is all about security. After 9/11 NATO went to Afghanistan not because it was fun or easy but because AQ had to be taken out or more such attacks would follow in the Western homelands. Now you have let Daesh off the hook and can expect further terrorist attacks, gifted the Muscovites and Iran a semi imperial influence in the Middle East and betrayed your allies while flushing US credibility down the toilet. Yet Trumpkin continues lying about how the US is 'respected' again... It's just not true. That is why Mattis resigned. You and your traitor President are no longer to be trusted, even by your allies. If you think that makes the US safer you are living in unicorn land.

1. ISIS isn't being let off the hook, the Axis of Evil is finishing off their pockets.
2. Turkey, a NATO member, is a more important ally than the PKK. America is leaving at the right time, before a Turkish operation and as non-ISIS resistance to the PKK has flared up.
3. Iran and Russia already had strong influence in Syria before 2011, were going to have it regardless because they hold the important cities and most of the population, Iran already has secured the feared Bekka to Tehran highway. The UAE reopened their Damascus embassy, Bahrain is reopening theirs, Jordan has reopened border crossings, and Arab League membership is being restored.
4. Traitor(s): The ISIS territorial state has fallen, it is time to leave.
5. Hanging around in Afghanistan for seventeen years is a good example as to why Trump is right to get out of North East Syria quickly.
6. The old people fleecing the taxpayer claiming they have a moral right to American money: America helped the PKK if anyone has a duty it was them to clean their act up. They got saved from ISIS, received money and weapons, got protected from Turkey for a couple years; they got a lot from the transaction and are not entitled to American protection forever due to them taking what was offered.

===============
To see globalists and foreigners with an entitled attitude angry about this decision brings a smile to my face.

[Double Edge]

Apparently, the Israelis ARE good, they get $4.5bn annually

Trump: 'We give Israel 4.5 billion a year, Israel is going to be good' | Ynet | Dec 27 2018

[snapper]

the mutual enemy is mostly gone, and the ISIS leftovers can be finished off by regional nations.

The ISIS territorial state has fallen, it is time to leave.

Which is it? Did Obama "found ISIS"?

Arabs and Putin: Putin is showing himself to be a "good ally" because he will stand beside people who gas their dissidents and put his own air force to work hitting hospitals. The people bitching about Trump and MBS on one hand and then America losing influence with these tyrants on the other don't seem to grasp that. America dropping a Kurdish terrorist group in North East Syria won't lose America any worthwhile "allies", taking a human rights stance on "domestic matters" in Arab states may.

You do realise that gassing 'dissidents' (or Jews) and bombing hospitals are war crimes? If bastards like Assad and Putin are allowed to get away with it in Syria do not surprised if they use they same methods when they come for you. If you want to see what effect this has on your supposed allies and those in Moscow who already claim to be "at war" with you - they proclaim it on the TV there - just look at the reaction. Putin is chuffed to bits - the French and Brits "disappointed". Nothing could have been done to make US less respected. The sooner Agent Orange is behind bars the better.

[Double Edge]

3. Iran and Russia already had strong influence in Syria before 2011, were going to have it regardless because they hold the important cities and most of the population, Iran already has secured the feared Bekka to Tehran highway. The UAE reopened their Damascus embassy, Bahrain is reopening theirs, Jordan has reopened border crossings, and Arab League membership is being restored.

Then US wanting to have a say post civil war is incorrect leaving the below for motivation to go to Syria

5. Hanging around in Afghanistan for seventeen years is a good example as to why Trump is right to get out of North East Syria quickly.

This is the thing, why did the US go to Afghanistan ? fight AQ

Why did the US go to Syria ? fight IS. What for ?

Everybody there is against IS already. They would do a good job without the US there.

The US wasn't even invited there.

Why did the US go to Syria again : )

[troung]

Which is it? Did Obama "found ISIS

Territorial entity is through, the locals and their evil Russian allies can mop it up. Hopefully expending lots of treasure in the meantime.

You do realise that gassing 'dissidents' (or Jews) and bombing hospitals are war crimes? If bastards like Assad and Putin are allowed to get away with it in Syria do not surprised if they use they same methods when they come for

Russia is a "great" ally because they are fine with all of that (without the presence of a public debate which finally started in yemen over a dead wacko), not because America won't stand beside a terrorist group in Syria long term.

If bastards like Assad and Putin are allowed to get away with it in Syria do not surprised if they use they same methods when they come for you.

Unrealistic threat.

Putin is chuffed to bits - the French and Brits "disappointed". Nothing could have been done to make US less respected. The sooner Agent Orange is behind bars the better.

[/Shrug of the shoulder] the sooner America can drop more foreign entanglements the better. The PKK relationship was transactional, and now it is over and it is time to leave.

France and Britain may stay to guard a terrorist militia if their public wish. It is Macron's time to shine :)

===
In the end the US could bomb the PKK on the way out and still lose no nation from team USA. Leaving Syria won't harm the USA.

===

[Double Edge]

Easier to squeeze the Saudis these days

[snapper]

More BS. As if the Saudi's are going to spend anything for the Assad regime so deeply in hoc to Iran.

[snapper]

Territorial entity is through, the locals and their evil Russian allies can mop it up. Hopefully expending lots of treasure in the meantime.

Well I am still unsure what to tell my family... One minute Trumpkin tells the world they are finished (because he was going to after real hard remember) but the next minute he and you tell me they are still there? Is the 'mission accomplished' true or not? Make up your mind.

Russia is a "great" ally because they are fine with all of that (without the presence of a public debate which finally started in yemen over a dead wacko), not because America won't stand beside a terrorist group in Syria long term.

What are you saying? Is there really no public debate under the Tsar Putin? This could be deemed as criticising the authorities for which there are severe penalties. Do you think it is right to leave your allies to be murdered? I mean that not as a policy question but as a human one.

Unrealistic threat.

So is everything until it happens.

[/Shrug of the shoulder] the sooner America can drop more foreign entanglements the better. The PKK relationship was transactional, and now it is over and it is time to leave.

Now you have fundamentally lost the plot. No country can stand alone. The more alliances you have the better.

France and Britain may stay to guard a terrorist militia if their public wish. It is Macron's time to shine :)

France has said it is staying. I expect the Brits will do the same but that could mean withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

In the end the US could bomb the PKK on the way out and still lose no nation from team USA. Leaving Syria won't harm the USA.

Apart from the Kurds and the Brits and French not trusting them.