Syrian Civil War Developments

[Blademaster]

I am not sure the Alawites want him to go. If he goes, there will be serious blood spilling and sectarian violence.

[JAD_333]

I am not sure the Alawites want him to go. If he goes, there will be serious blood spilling and sectarian violence.

Possibly, not certainly. Leaders in the FSF maintain that to avoid a Sunni versus everyone else rampage, the opposition must succeed soon. That's one of its arguments for getting arms assistance from outside.

[JAD_333]

I thought it might be amusing to get Venezuela's take the day before it voted with Russia yesterday against the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Security Council for failing to enact sanctions against Syria. It seems Chavez, the champion of the poor and exploited, can boot lick with the best.
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ARAB UPRISING
Venezuelan gov't supports Russia and China stance on Syria
Russia and China have used their power of veto to prevent the approval of a resolution that would extend the stay of a United Nations observation mission in Syria for 45 days
In Alepo, civilians are hit by destruction amidst the conflict (Photo: Reuters)
EL UNIVERSAL
Thursday August 02, 2012 03:33 PM


Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said on Wednesday that he supports the Russia and China position about Syria. These two countries have blocked the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council to exert pressure on President Bashar Al Assad.

Russia and China have used their power of veto to prevent the approval of a resolution that would extended the stay of a UN observation mission for 45 days in Syria, said Reuters.

"Of course, we share the position of Russia and China, our allied and friend countries, that Syria's sovereignty should be respected," said Chávez to journalists after his arrival in Caracas in a flight from Brasilia, where he attended the ceremony of Venezuela's entry into the Common Market of the South (Mercosur). Venezuelan Govt Supports Russia And China Stance On Syria - Nacional Y Politica - El Universal.

[cyppok]

I think jad that everyone has their own agenda Chavez included but intervention for wrong or right reasons in Latin America will always be seen somewhat negatively.

Intervention it seems has been decided just not where and when. Doubtful if the amount of people suffering decreases during or after intervention but the ripple effect will be the most interesting aspect for me. More radicalized Sunnis from Syria through Iraqi provinces where they dominate since fighters ebb and flow through the border and Turkey as well.


Rebels 'execute' regime loyalists in Aleppo
Video from Syria appears to show men accused of being shabiha lined up and shot at point blank range.

Last Modified: 01 Aug 2012 17:44

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012...n_1731747.html

Human Rights Watch have accused the Free Syria Army of committing potential war crimes as videos emerged of rebels "executing" supporters of President Bashar al-Assad in the beleaguered city of Aleppo.

YouTube videos have been posted of rebels lining up Assad supporters and appearing to shoot them at point blank range.

Separately, loyalist troops are said to have shot civilians in a Damascus neighbourhood, who have now been buried in a mass grave.

The mob craves blood and most of the time people who suffer on both sides weren't the initiators nor the perpetrators. It usually escalates and gets worse since the new rulers when they come to power put their own bureaucracy in charge and that reshuffles everyones place in society.

[JAD_333]

I think jad that everyone has their own agenda Chavez included but intervention for wrong or right reasons in Latin America will always be seen somewhat negatively.

I don't care about Chavez. I was just bringing up the UN resolution through his eyes. The resolution is the issue, not Chavez.

[Parihaka]

FORTY-EIGHT Iranian pilgrims were abducted from a bus in the Syrian capital on Saturday, their embassy's consular chief in Damascus told Iran's state television.


"Armed terrorist groups kidnapped 48 Iranian pilgrims on their way to the airport," Majid Kamjou told the IRIB network, which gave the report on its website.

"There are no reports about the fate of the pilgrims. The embassy and Syrian officials are trying to trace the kidnappers," he said.

Syria's state news agency SANA later gave the same account, without giving a number for those kidnapped, and added that "authorities are working to resolve the situation".

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians travel each year to Syria to visit a Shiite pilgrimage site, the Shrine of Zaynab, in Damascus.

Tehran is the staunchest ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces are locked in a bloody conflict in Damascus and other cities against rebels his regime describes as "terrorists".

Several dozen Iranian pilgrims and engineers were abducted in December and January, with most being released months later.

Many of the rebels come from Syria's Sunni majority, which is hostile to the support Shi'ite Iran has shown to the regime of Assad, whose family is Alawite, a Shi'ite offshoot.

An excuse for Iran to interfere directly?

[S2]

"An excuse for Iran to interfere directly?"

I'd love to know the composition of these pilgrims by sex and age. Direct interference? Who's to say that's not already the case. Overt interference is more likely the looming question with Iran.

"Honey, the family really needs to reaffirm its religious devotion. No better time to visit Syria than the height of summer in the midst of a civil war."

[Bigfella]

As our military folk hereabouts know, one of the issues of having a big, high tech military is that you need a hefty 'tail' to keep your powerful 'tip' in the field. Looks like Assad's 'tail' is struggling. Low on cash & bleeding men, that big & powerful military may not be the weapon Assad hopes it will be.

WITH diplomatic efforts dead and the future of Syria playing out on the battlefield, many of the Syrian government's most powerful weapons, including helicopter gunships, fighter jets, and tanks, are looking less potent and in some cases like a liability for the military of President Bashar al-Assad.

Rebels have turned part of Dr Assad's formidable arsenal on his own troops. Anti-Assad fighters on Wednesday shelled a military airport in the contested city of Aleppo with captured weapons. On Tuesday, rebels used commandeered Syrian army tanks in a skirmish with Dr Assad's troops.

Perhaps even more worrying to Dr Assad, his military has come to rely more heavily on equipment designed for a major battle with a foreign enemy, namely Israel, rather than a protracted civil conflict with his own people. Close observers of his military say Syria is having trouble keeping its sophisticated and maintenance-intensive weapons functioning. The strain is likely to grow more acute as the government depends on helicopter gunships to reach parts of the country rendered impassable to logistics convoys and even armoured vehicles by the rebels' improvised bombs.

Analysts said Syria's fleet of Mi-25 Hind-D attack helicopters is insufficient to hold back rebels as the number of fronts, from Aleppo and Idlib in the north to the suburbs of Damascus in the south to Hama in Homs in the centre of the country, continues to proliferate.


Maintenance technicians are struggling to keep the machines aloft in an intense campaign and in the searing heat and sand associated with summer desert war. Estimates are that only half his fleet can be used at a given time, with some helicopters cannibalised for spare parts and Dr Assad dependent on supplies from Russia. ''This army is going to start breaking,'' said Jeffrey White, a former Defence Intelligence Agency analyst. NEW YORK TIMES

Read more: Strained Assad military close to breaking point

[S2]

An Army ROTC cadet who's summer interning in my company mentioned an active duty officer had advised, that if seeing combat was his wont, he should branch select Transportation Corps. A bit tongue-in-cheek but speaks to the vulnerabilities we experienced with a long logistics tail reaching from Iraq back into Kuwait throughout both OIF and the Iraq insurgency.

The more salient point here is that the Syrian Army's infantry, armor and artillery have proved incapable of securing their own MSRs, supply and maintenence depots, meet the PMCS and scheduled maintenence requirements while adapting to a counter-insurgent war appropriate to the conditions and capabilities of the state's enemies. Assad clearly expected he could bludgeon his enemies into rapid submission and likely hasn't expected a protracted conflict which has began tearing his army apart at the vulnerable seams. The troops may increasingly see their cannons, tanks, IFVs and helicopter gunships as shibboleths which once distinguished them from their foes. In their absence or irrelevance why should they expect any qualitative advantage?

If none, what justifies being found on the losing side?

[Bigfella]

An Army ROTC cadet who's summer interning in my company mentioned an active duty officer had advised, that if seeing combat was his wont, he should branch select Transportation Corps. A bit tongue-in-cheek but speaks to the vulnerabilities we experienced with a long logistics tail reaching from Iraq back into Kuwait throughout both OIF and the Iraq insurgency.

The more salient point here is that the Syrian Army's infantry, armor and artillery have proved incapable of securing their own MSRs, supply and maintenence depots, meet the PMCS and scheduled maintenence requirements while adapting to a counter-insurgent war appropriate to the conditions and capabilities of the state's enemies. Assad clearly expected he could bludgeon his enemies into rapid submission and likely hasn't expected a protracted conflict which has began tearing his army apart at the vulnerable seams. The troops may increasingly see their cannons, tanks, IFVs and helicopter gunships as shibboleths which once distinguished them from their foes. In their absence or irrelevance why should they expect any qualitative advantage?

If none, what justifies being found on the losing side?

Yup. If Assad can't protect his freinds or punsh his enemies what does he have left? There are also reports of rebels not only capturing tanks, but of some small units deecting. Hard to pin down the accuracy, but if true that is more bad news & speaks to the morale of some frontline units.

[astralis]

frankly given the way syria's military has been performing against rebels whom, until a short while ago, had small arms with uncertain resupply...yeah, don't think they would have done real well against the israelis somehow. CJ Chivers just did a piece on the "maintenance", or rather lack thereof, of the syrian military.

[Skywatcher]

"An excuse for Iran to interfere directly?"

I'd love to know the composition of these pilgrims by sex and age. Direct interference? Who's to say that's not already the case. Overt interference is more likely the looming question with Iran.

"Honey, the family really needs to reaffirm its religious devotion. No better time to visit Syria than the height of summer in the midst of a civil war."

Frankly, if the FSA (or SLA or whoever else) is going to kidnap 48 people in the Damascus environment, those 48 certainly won't be your average pilgrims.

[Bigfella]

frankly given the way syria's military has been performing against rebels whom, until a short while ago, had small arms with uncertain resupply...yeah, don't think they would have done real well against the israelis somehow. CJ Chivers just did a piece on the "maintenance", or rather lack thereof, of the syrian military.

I think that is the one I just posted - for some reason the Age website didn't quote the author, just the publication.

[Bigfella]

OK, quick update. Syrian state TV has been Bombed & the Prime Minister has done a runner to Lebanon. That rushing & gurgling souund you hear is water. The iceberg has already hit, the only question is how big the hole is & how long it will take to sink the ship. The rats have been skipping town for a while, now senior crew members are bolting. First it was soldiers, then officers, then generals, now cabinet ministers.

Syria Prime Minister Riad Hijab defects to Jordan

Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab has defected from President Bashar al-Assad's government to join "the revolution", his spokesman says.

Mr Hijab was appointed less than two months ago and his departure is the highest-profile defection since the uprising began in March 2011.

His family is reported to have fled Syria with him.

Riad Hijab is a Sunni Muslim from the Deir al-Zour area of eastern Syria which has been caught up in the revolt.

'Freedom and dignity'

His spokesman Mohammed el-Etri told al-Jazeera TV that he was in a safe location.

"I announce today my defection from the killing and terrorist regime and I announce that I have joined the ranks of the freedom and dignity revolution," ran the statement read by his spokesman.

Mr Hijab is the first cabinet minister to defect. The BBC's Dale Gavlak in Jordan says the development underscores the cracks in the regime which are reaching beyond military ranks.

Unconfirmed reports suggested that two other cabinet ministers had also deserted and there were claims that a third, Finance Minister Mohammad Jalilati, had been arrested while trying to flee.

But Syrian state TV said he was still in his office working as usual, and it broadcast what it said was a phone interview with Mr Jalilati categorically denying reports that he had been detained.

Last month, Syria's ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf Fares, deserted to the opposition. Like the former prime minister, he was also from Deir al-Zour. Brig Gen Manaf Tlas, who was considered close to President Assad, also defected in July.

Thirty other generals have crossed the border into Turkey and Turkish news agency Anatolia reported on Monday that another general had fled with five high-ranking officers and more than 30 soldiers.

The prime minister's dismissal was reported by Syrian state TV, which gave no immediate explanation.

His replacement, Omar Ghalawanji, will reportedly lead a caretaker government.

Hours earlier, state TV said a bomb had gone off on the third floor of the Syrian state TV and radio building in Damascus, wounding three people.

[Doktor]

And NATO would just love to come to Turkey's aid.

:scratching head: Wasn't that aid supposed if the member state is under attack? Turkey would become under attack?