Syrian Civil War Developments

[Officer of Engineers]

I bet his logisticians are breaking out the vodka and breathing a sigh of relief.

Israel isn't. The S400 are there to stay.

[Aryajet]

Colonel Sir,
While the toothless NATO or West in general have been contemplating to impose a NFZ over Syria for over 4 years Russia just steped in and established it overnight by deploying the S-400. Now no one can fly over (almost) the country unless has got a nod from Assad. Good job NATO.

Time to send couple of Stingers shipment to FSA to balance the field.

[Guest]

Probably the fact they are leaving is scarier

Requires some geopolitical agility; they come when they like and leave when they like and as an autocratic regime they are not bogged down by democratic process of internal debate as to merit of staying or leaving

Probably their access to the port on the Syrian coast was threatened and they needed to ensure it continuous existence by bulking up Bashar, while showing off their arsenal for an export market (ala Gulf War 1991).

So the bear is not only not toothless but also is an agile bear.

[Officer of Engineers]

They had an operational objective. They acheived it.

[Mihais]

It seems the Russians sorta gave Assad the mid-finger.They apparently have not informed him of this move.

Also,the Russians may only want to score some PR points.It does not signal a reduction of operational tempo,only that they don't want further escalation.

Like in Ukraine,they're backing down.

[Bigfella]

Putin is taking a leaf right out of the Richard M. Nixon playbook: make it look like you've done some damage to your notional enemy; get some sort of negotiated fig leaf; get the hell out of dodge & declare victory.

Obviously Putin wasn't in the hole anywhere as deep as Nixon. He also had control of the process from beginning to end and doesn't have to worry about troublesome things like a free press or an opposition. He got the 'Russia is a world power' headlines he wanted, now he's heading home before the body bags pile up. He'll throw in supplies & the occasional air strike to keep Assad in power, but he has other things to do.

If this was Obama people would be screaming about 'weakness'. because its Putin the narrative will be about how wily he is & what a clever move this is. Of course, it is all about the fundamental weakness of Russia. The US could keep up Russia's level of operations for decades without even noticing. He's done after a few headlines & a few bombs. Putin can't sustain this sort of thing for long. Bad luck for Ukraine, however. I suspect he is looking to ramp up there.

[SteveDaPirate]

From what I understand, most of the strikes being carried out by the Russians are being done with Backfires and Blackjacks flown out of Russian territory rather than aircraft based in Syria.

The Russians succeeded in pushing the lines away from their air and naval bases, so now they are largely going home.

[Officer of Engineers]

It was a dual operation. Putin timed it with an Assad ground attack.

[tantalus]

Syrian Alawites distance themselves from Assad

In a deeply unusual move, leaders of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect in Syria have released a document, obtained by the BBC, that distances themselves from his regime and outlines what kind of future they wish for the country after five years of civil war.

The community and religious leaders say they hope to "shine a light" on the Alawites after a long period of secrecy, at what they call "an important moment" in their history.

In the eight-page document, termed a "declaration of identity reform", the Alawites say they represent a third model "of and within Islam".

They also make clear that they adhere to "the values of equality, liberty and citizenship", and call for secularism to be the future of Syria, and a system of governance in which Islam, Christianity and all other religions are equal.

And despite Alawites having dominated Syria's government and security services under Mr Assad and his late father Hafez for more than four decades, they stress that the legitimacy of his regime "can only be considered according to the criteria of democracy and fundamental rights".

Full article http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35941679
This article offers a valuable insight to the Alawites, shows a future without Assad, and indicates that the Alawites are willing to participate in a secular Syria. We could only hope this is representative of the Alawite leadership and people.

[Parihaka]

About time but far too late for them I suspect.

[astralis]

they shoulda done it RIGHT when Assad's army started to murder protesters.

if Assad ever goes, that "document" will go with them to their ethically cleansed graves.

[zraver]

they shoulda done it RIGHT when Assad's army started to murder protesters.

if Assad ever goes, that "document" will go with them to their ethically cleansed graves.

Pretty much, which is why Assad has maintained support among non-Sunni groups, they know whats coming if the Alawites fall.

[Officer of Engineers]

And here goes Obama is a fucking military strategist! The one fucking fuck he wants gone is the one fuck he needs in place!

[astralis]

notice Assad -isn't- gone. do you think if the administration really prioritized eliminating Assad, he'd still be there?

[SteveDaPirate]

And here goes Obama is a fucking military strategist! The one fucking fuck he wants gone is the one fuck he needs in place!

John Kerry is the one who wants Assad gone and was pushing Obama to drop a cruise missile on him. Obama wanted to get rid of Assad's WMD and keep the conflict at arm's length and he shut Kerry down and did just that. If the US forces regime change, we get the responsibility for Syria dropped in our lap and anything the next clown put in power over there does is now our fault.

Nothing is stopping Obama from killing Assad any time he pleases. The real question is WHY would the US want to buy into the mess in Syria any more than we have to in order to keep ISIL pruned back? Syria doesn't occupy a particularly strategic location, they don't have enough resources to disrupt the world economy, and they aren't a serious military threat to anybody we care about. The US stands to gain next to nothing from an intervention but risks a lot.