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  • The end result is that they're still killing each other with minimal investments from us. Bad plans but still with good results.
    Thankfully when one looks at it that way. Though only because Putin stepped up, otherwise AQ and ideological allies might hold one part and ISIS the other.

    ============
    I have read that a "ceasefire" agreement was agreed regarding the Syrian mess yesterday. I have seen what Putin's "ceasefires" look like for myself and have absolutely no faith in an Putin regime signed document; I am told that Assad has (quite predictably) already declared his intention to "take back all of Syria" which will inevitably make any "ceasefire" worthless but no doubt Putin will be asked to put pressure on him
    Terrorists are excluded - like Qatar and Turkey's buddies in AQ, and ISIS.

    A typical biased analysis from the fan boy of any and all despots and murderers. I am sorry to inform you that the troops now beseiging Aleppo are either Iranian or in Iranian pay (Hezbollah) or Russian or in Muscovite pay, the air bomardment is almost exclusively the action of the Putin regimes forces, which last month carried out over 500 sorties exclusively in the North West of Syria where Daesh has no presence whatsoever. There has been for some time credible evidence - even in open source media - that the Putin regime has been involved not only with AQ but with Daesh.
    Perfectly legal for Russia to flatten the IF/AQ/FSA.

    There are over 2000 Russian citizens currently believed to fighting with Daesh and the link goes directly through Kadyrov, the current cowboy of Chechnya tin pot dictator who thinks nothing of publicly threatening Russian opposition leaders on his Instagram account,
    Or they simply hate Russia and all, you know like lots of Chechens.

    the Turks do or do not "go in" to relieve Aleppo the allegation will be made and used as an excuse for further actions in other theatres, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, mining the Arabian Gulf and declaring "Closed to traffic" perhaps by Iran and perhaps a push toward the Dnieper in Ukraine.
    The Turks are worried their terrorist proxies (AQ/IF) are about to lose and that the Kurds are going to cut off the border.

    There is real danger of East - West war here, probably greater than any time since the Berlin Wall fell; I am told Medvedev (Putin's poodle PM) said the same yesterday.
    As Western Europe won't back the AKP and Obama isn't going to start a war in an election year...

    he Turks, I am told, were in favour of going in (I do not know if this is true) and already have over 2m refugees and another increasing load of 40,000+ on the border fleeing from Aleppo.
    Hopefully NATO tells those AKP fools to stand down.

    I should remind you that before the Turks shot down the Russian Su - 24 a while ago the Russian Ambassador in Ankara was summoned three times within two weeks and told that this targetting of Turkmen in Northern Latakia was unacceptable
    Turkey showed them, oh wait... Russia flattened the local Turkmen afterwards :(

    to Obama's inadvisable "red line" and subsequent inexcusable back down in Syria.
    American public wasn't in favor of war, Russia offered a workable solution, and France backed down.

    here has been for some time credible evidence - even in open source media - that the Putin regime has been involved not only with AQ but with Daesh. Remember Ayman Al Zawahari, OBL's right hand man? Where do you think he came from? He was caught by the Russians in 1996, trained by the FSB and then released to collect supporters in Dagestan, Litvinenko reported this and said he was involved in part. Other credible sources confirmed this; look it up! It's not new or classified. There are over 2000 Russian citizens currently believed to fighting with Daesh and the link goes directly through Kadyrov, the current cowboy of Chechnya tin pot dictator who thinks nothing of publicly threatening Russian opposition leaders on his Instagram account,
    LOL if Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, Iran and Syria are all supporting AQ then it is good we keep out.

    If Aleppo falls it is effectively a decisive defeat to the non Daesh Opposition to the criminal Assad regime and the 'West' must effective cede Russian and Iran dominance in what would become the 'Shi'ite Crescent' from the border of Pakistan to Lebanon
    Before this offensive started Assad controlled most of the populated parts of the city already.

    Obama administrations conduct of foreign policy has been delinquently juvenile from the start and I know it is not that they lacking good advice.
    Done a great job steering us out of two stupid armed conflicts - the Ukraine and Syria.

    'Thank you Russia!' Life after the siege for pro-regime Syrians

    By Frederik Pleitgen, CNN
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/12/middle...l-after-siege/
    Updated 4:39 PM ET, Fri February 12, 2016 | Video Source: CNN

    Story highlights

    The pro-regime Syrian town of Nubl was under siege by rebel forces for more than three years
    Two weeks ago, Syrian forces backed by Russian airstrikes broke through the siege
    Area near Nubl, north of Aleppo is a key battleground in Syria's brutal five year civil war

    Nubl, Syria (CNN)"Thank you Russia! Thank you Hezbollah! Thank you Iran!" shouts the man, as he passes us in the busy square.

    Nearby, a photograph of Bashar al-Assad beams down from the front of the town hall, and banners in support of the Syrian President hang outside the main mosque.

    This is Nubl, a mostly Shia, pro-government town in Syria, so close to the border with Turkey that on the way here our phones constantly switched to Turkish mobile networks.

    Until two weeks ago Nubl and its neighbor al-Zahra were under siege; various rebel factions, including the al-Nusra Front and others linked to the Free Syrian Army, controlled the countryside nearby for more than three years.

    Then the Syrian army -- backed by pro-Iranian militias and supported by controversial Russian air strikes -- broke through.

    In Nubl, al-Assad-supporting local residents are still jubilant; "God, Syria, Bashar, and nothing else," a group of them chanted as we approached.

    Many houses are decorated with posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    Outside the town hall, 14-year-old Zolfiqar Ali Jawish is selling cigarettes and candy. He says life under siege was a struggle.

    "It was tough," he tells us. "Many people got sick and the kids were very scared. But after a while we became numb to the fear.

    "Sometimes it took very long to get aid in here," he added. "It was awful because there was shelling all the time as well."

    Humanitarian relief

    Some supplies were able to get through, so the situation in Nubl was never as life-threatening as that seen in Madaya, where Syrian government forces were accused of leaving residents on the brink of starvation.

    But those here say the army had to send aid in via airdrops, and earlier this week, the Syrian Red Crescent says it delivered humanitarian relief to the town and to Al Zahra.

    Now, a few weeks on from the end of the siege, stores in Nubl are well stocked.

    In the town's market, we saw several stalls offering an array of fruit and vegetables for sale; a barrow full of bright green apples was lined up next to trays loaded with tomatoes and potatoes.

    The lifting of the sieges of al-Zahra and Nubl were key victories for the Syrian military not just because they boosted morale among pro Assad forces, but also because this area north of Aleppo is a decisive battleground in Syria's brutal five year long civil war.

    The towns and villages here lie between the rebel-held parts of Aleppo and the border with Turkey; fully controlling this area would allow the Syrian army to choke off almost all supplies to rebels inside Aleppo, potentially dealing a crushing blow to the already weakened opposition.

    One soldier who fought to end the siege of Nubl offered a stern warning to rebel fighters:

    "Their families should encourage them to look for reconciliation or, I say, they will be killed," he tells us. "They have no other option."

    'Cessation of hostilities'

    But the opposition does not believe that reconciliation is truly on the government's mind; rebel factions say they are simply being slaughtered by Russian air power and a newly invigorated Syrian army.

    The U.N. and other aid groups fear a protracted siege of rebel-held areas in Aleppo would lead to a humanitarian disaster for the many civilians also trapped there.

    Already, tens of thousands of people have fled the city, heading for the Turkish border, leading to warnings of a surge in an already overwhelming refugee crisis.

    Major world powers meeting in Munich, Germany, on Friday agreed on a plan to end the use of starvation and denial of medical aid as a weapon in this conflict. The U.N. has strongly criticized the Syrian government, various rebel factions, and ISIS for not allowing aid deliveries to surrounded areas.

    They also agreed to what U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria.

    Russia, however, says it plans to continue its airstrikes in Aleppo, as well as attacks against what it believes are terrorist targets across Syria.

    The Syrian soldiers we spoke to said they were confident that, backed by Russian air power, their forces could make it all the way to the Turkish border -- dealing what could be a decisive blow to the opposition.
    Last edited by troung; 13 Feb 16,, 06:58.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

    Comment


    • Originally posted by troung View Post
      Terrorists are excluded - like Qatar and Turkey's buddies in AQ, and ISIS.

      Perfectly legal for Russia to flatten the IF/AQ/FSA.
      But perfectly illegal and especially horrid for Ukraine to flatten terrorists in Ukraine? The Russian view seems to be that in Ukraine the rebels and cleaner than white, paradigms of virtue and the Government is a zionist fascist den of murdering gansters hell bent on murdering who is stupid enough to get in it's way. However in Syria the opposite applies; there the Government is entirely legitimate (notwistanding it's record of war crimes) and only trying to do it's best while the rebels are the spawn of Satan and a threat to everyone.

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      Or they simply hate Russia and all, you know like lots of Chechens.
      You would be grateful to Putin if you were Chechen?

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      Hopefully NATO tells those AKP fools to stand down.
      So wherever Russia invades and slaughters civilians we should do nothing? Is this your personal view? There is another hypocrisy here: According to Moscow they went into Crimea and Donbass to protect "ethnic Russians" from the 'fascist junta' in Kyiv but yet it not right that the Turks protect Turkmen in Syria from Assad's goons and Russian cluster bombs?

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      Turkey showed them, oh wait... Russia flattened the local Turkmen afterwards :(
      Should we celebrate because of all widely know terrorist actions of the Turkmen? Please remind me of a few...

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      American public wasn't in favor of war, Russia offered a workable solution, and France backed down.
      You do not hold a plebescite on all matters. Leaders should lead.

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      LOL if Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, Iran and Syria are all supporting AQ then it is good we keep out.
      Turkey and KSA have said that unless the Russian bombing of civilian population stops they are going in. If Russia retaliates and hits targets in Turkey Article 5 applies.

      Originally posted by troung View Post
      Done a great job steering us out of two stupid armed conflicts - the Ukraine and Syria.
      Who invaded Ukraine and who is bombing civilians in Syria?

      I wonder how many 1000s of it's own and other nations civilians a person or a Government must murder to get your seal of approval?

      Comment


      • So wherever Russia invades and slaughters civilians we should do nothing? Is this your personal view? There is another hypocrisy here: According to Moscow they went into Crimea and Donbass to protect "ethnic Russians" from the 'fascist junta' in Kyiv but yet it not right that the Turks protect Turkmen in Syria from Assad's goons and Russian cluster bombs?
        Even pro Jihadist groups like the SOHR state Russia is killing around two terrorists for each civilian, and most of those "civilians" (the status of which is based on reporting from the groups themselves) killed in the air strikes are adult males. Even by Pallywood standards of accounting this falls well below the 8th air force...

        http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=43697
        The dead are : 1380 civilians ( 332 children, and 195 women ), 853 men and young men, 965 IS, and 1233 rebels and Jabhat al-Nusra including non-Syrian militants.
        d only trying to do it's best while the rebels are the spawn of Satan and a threat to everyone.
        Al Queda are a big part of the "rebels" as are groups who have the same beliefs, the Islamic Front. So yeah these groups are a threat to everyone, especially here in the West.

        You do not hold a plebescite on all matters. Leaders should lead.
        For a war the public opinion does matter. The people whose money and lives were on the line didn't want in.

        Should we celebrate because of all widely know terrorist actions of the Turkmen? Please remind me of a few...
        When you fight shoulder to shoulder with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Front and AQ...

        Turkey and KSA have said that unless the Russian bombing of civilian population stops they are going in.
        They are rather more concerned with the fact Russia is hammering the Islamic Front and Al Queda. Right now the only groups fighting AQ and ISIS on the ground are the YPG and the SAA/friends.

        If Russia retaliates and hits targets in Turkey Article 5 applies.
        It won't, Turkey cannot bootstrap NATO into a war to protect Faildogans son's oil business and AQ/Muslim Brotherhood. Being the aggressor is the lovely out that gets read into mutual defense treaties.

        Sorry I guess you will have to wait for someone else to attack Russia for you... :(

        ===========
        Lessons from Russia’s intervention in Syria
        Commentary

        Gustav Gressel
        twitter-icon @GresselGustav
        05th February, 2016
        http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentar...n_in_syria5085

        Since the Russian armed forces intervened in the Syrian civil war on 29 August 2015, assessments of their military capabilities differ considerably.

        To some, the display of Russian firepower and mobility is a fearsome reminder of the increased Russian military capabilities. For others, the limited success of the Russian campaign so far is an indication of the still-faulty military equipment and limited availability of first-rate weaponry leading them to conclude that Russia would be no meaningful military threat to NATO. The Syrian campaign is very different from a war on NATO's eastern frontier making conclusions about Russia's military threat difficult. But some trends are readable.


        The pace of Russian airstrikes
        Click to enlarge

        The first trend observed is the increase pace of Russian air activity. Figures differ, and one should treat the figures given by the Russian Ministry of Defence with caution. But around - and sometimes over - 1000 (the maximum figure was about 1600) sorties per month are a good estimate. For fighter-bombers or ground-attack aircraft situated close to the front, three sorties per day are considered the maximum that can be sustained over short periods of time. In Soviet times, this tempo could only be sustained on the first few days before dropping to two and then to one sortie a day. After 20 days of fighting, fewer than 60 percent of the planes in a squadron should be operational. Russia operates one squadron of Su-24 and one squadron of Su-25 (each squadron comprising 12 planes) in Syria, but still keeping up a reasonable tempo. Hence the “turn-around-time” (the time needed to check, service, refuel and rearm a plane between the sorties) could be kept short despite the high stress on the planes and two sorties a day can still be flown by most of the aircraft. This proves that Russia could improve its logistical procedures and structures.

        There are about 100 to 150 sorties per month flown by aircraft that are not (permanently) stationed in Syria. Most of them are strategic (Tu-160 or Tu-95) or operative bombers (Tu-22M3), but there are also also Su-34 fighter-bombers appearing frequently over Syria. During the 1990s, only 10 percent of Russian fighter and fighter-bomber pilots were able to conduct air-to-air refuelling. However, the frequent appearance of the Su-34 over Syria suggests that at least amongst their squadrons air-to-air refuelling is common as the Su-34 needs to be refuelled in air to shuttle in via the Caspian Sea, Iran and North Iraq. And Russia has only 46 of them.


        Guided missiles and smart weapons

        The Su-34 is also the most impressive platform when it comes to the use of smart weapons. It deploys both laser and GLONASS (the Russian equivalent of GPS) guided bombs against high-value targets. Despite the fact that it was started by the Soviet Union, GLONASS was declared fully operational only in 2011. Before that, there were insufficient satellites in orbit to allow permanent coverage. Hence, Russia has never tested its GLONASS-guided weapons in any previous conflicts and Syria is a perfect testing ground. It is hard to assess the precision of the system, as few details are known about Russian targeting practices. But as the system uses different bandwidths for its signals, it is more difficult to jam than the US GPS or the European Galileo.

        GLONASS or GPS guided weapons are cheaper to produce than any other guided missile and they do not require expensive targeting pods to be carried by the aircraft or a spotter. Hence the availability of the GPS-guided JDAM has paved the way for the “all-smart” air-campaigns the US Air Force conducts. But the Russian fighters predominantly carry “dump” freefall munitions. Scanning the pictures, the Su-25 never carries smart munitions, only cluster-bombs, freefall bombs, and unguided rockets. Su-24 rarely carry them. The Tu-160 and Tu-95 carry cruise-missiles, but the Tu-22M3 was only filmed dropping “dump” freefall bombs. These bombers were formerly naval strike platforms (armed with anti-ship or radar-seeking cruise missiles) and transferred to the air force in 2012 as a dedicated theatre nuclear strike platform. System integration of non-nuclear munitions seems to lag behind schedule. Russian production of smart munitions seems to be too low or too costly to allow an “all-smart” air campaign. In addition, the Russian government seems eager to exploit the political divisions created by the refugee crisis, hence avoiding collateral damage – and hence displaced people – is not the primary concern of the Russian air force.

        Russian cruise missiles caught considerable media attention. The Kh-555 and Kh-101 were conventional cold war legacy weapons dropped from Russian strategic bombers. Their terrain-following radars provide about the accuracy of the first generation of US Tomahawk missiles and are able to hit large targets, easily distinguishable by the radar. The naval 3M14T and 3M14K Klub-K launched from gunboats, frigates, cruisers and submarines is a newer weapon. Of 30 cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea on 7 October 2015, only four crashed due to navigational errors (which could have resulted from operator errors as well). This confirms somewhat its reliability. But the terrain-following radar can only hit larger targets: parking lots, storage buildings, supply-dumps and so forth. The strength of the missile is its range (2,500 km) and versatility. It can be fired from small gunboats from protected waters, or from small diesel-electric submarines, which are hard to detect especially in the littorals. As ground-based air-defence systems have become rarer in Europe (because such systems are not needed for expeditionary warfare), Russia could threaten the unprotected European rear from different firing positions armed with such a missile. If nuclear-tipped, it would make a good weapon for blackmailing Europe. And to demonstrate this fact was undoubtedly part of the mission in Syria.


        Target gathering and targetting

        The biggest unknown on the use of Russian smart munitions are the targeting practices. To have a weapon that can hit a certain building is one thing. To know about who or what is inside is another thing altogether. Tanks, troops, field positions and fortifications are easily recognisable by optical means but it is much more difficult with buildings or civilian cars. Russian drones have a maximum range of 350km from their controlling stations and rely on electro-optical reconnaissance. Russia has a wide array of spy satellites, but only the electro-optical ones provide suitable data in this conflict. They provide pictures roughly twice a day.

        There have been no reports of electronic-reconnaissance planes (ELINT, SIGINT) deployed by Russia, although helicopters have been rumoured to carry such equipment. And Russia has deployed several ground-based listening stations across the Assad-held territories. Such equipment is needed to listen to the enemy's communication, track their electronic traffic and hence gather intelligence on the depths and deep organisation of the enemy. Russia's ability to do so seems to be limited, unlike the US, where most of the sorties are flown to gather information deep in enemy territory.

        This accords with the observation that Russian air-strikes are confined to the immediate frontline of the Syrian civil war. Russia relies on ground-based intelligence, short-ranged systems, and Assad's secret services to designate targets. It has little information about the rest of the country. Then there is the issue of time frames. To call an air-strike close to the front may take up to an hour from call to actual strike. The cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea need two hours to reach their destination in Syria and once fired, they cannot change target. Airplanes need in-flight updates to change their targets when striking with GLONASS munitions. Voice-contact to ground controllers for dropping dump-bombs is less demanding. This is why even the only targeted killing of an opposition leader conducted by the Russian air force – the assassination of Zahran Alloush, head of the “Army of Islam” on 25 December 2015 – was conducted in the outskirts of Damascus. He was probably tracked by agents on the ground or by other means at the disposal of Assad. With that, the Russians could track him with sufficient accuracy to predict his whereabouts for the time needed to strike. But tracking other top leaders hiding in the depth of rebel or ISIS-controlled territory is something the Russians could not yet do. All this unveils the Russian weakness in expeditionary warfare. But Syria is a theatre Russia so far hasn't trained or prepared to fight in.


        Anti-Access/Area Denial

        Another system that had a considerable impact on the US-led campaign against ISIS was the S-400 “Triumph” air defence system, deployed to Syria end of November. Not only is the nominal range of the system impressive, it also has features that counter previous Western advantages over Soviet air defence systems. First, it is a truly networked system that can process data from a variety of active and passive sensors and radars. In the past, Soviet air defence systems relied on only one fire-control radar, which if destroyed, would render the entire battery useless. Not so with the S-400. Furthermore, the system's main missile 40N6 has a very capable and flexible radar-seeker, that can either search and destroy targets independently after contact to the ground-systems is lost, or lock on jamming systems and destroy them. The “smart” sensor has abilities to analyse targets and threats according to their behaviour. Hence it is much more difficult to deceive, jam or defend against the missile. After MH-17 there is little trust in Russian air-defence crews picking the right target, and no one in the West wants to test whether they would withhold their fire this time. Hence for practical reasons, the US have significantly decreased their air operations over western Syria since the system was deployed.

        With the S-400, Russia in practice could enforce its own “no fly zone” against the West. As NATO has not prepared to fight Russia militarily since the end of the cold war, its arsenal of anti-radar weapons has not been further developed. The old systems were effective enough against the Soviet legacy systems found in the arsenal of average Middle East dictators. And while modern electronic warfare systems could easily take care of those systems, taking on an S-400 battery is a different matter and would require a much broader effort – and put a lot of expensive planes at risk of being shot down. This is now a card to play for Russia to decrease the Western diplomatic freedom of action as well, by curtailing its practical means of intervention.

        The S-400 is one of many “Anti-Access/Area Denial” weapons Russia developed and deployed to counter the Western technological superiority displayed in the 1990-91 Gulf War. If one S-400 battery can curtail US air operations over Western Syria, what does it say about the ability of the massive militarisation of the Kaliningrad oblast to endanger NATO's defence of the Baltics? While, the US and other allies have more at stake in the Baltics and would be willing to run correspondingly bigger risks, the impact of the S-400 will be significant.

        Then again, other parameters shift as well. For Russia, fighting NATO in the Baltics is closer to its own infrastructure and surveillance installations. They have numerous sensors intended to locate NATO's air-defence and command infrastructure – which are useless against ISIS – and which could be brought to bear in such a scenario. NATO forces do not hide amongst the civilian populations, and their high-end equipment has a very different electronic signature than the commercial and civilian equipment used by ISIS. And detecting the former is what Russia's electronic intelligence has specialised in.

        However, it is difficult to judge the results of the new electronic war. Even preliminary assessments of Russia's electronic warfare capabilities tend to forget that in peacetime, no reasonable country unveils its full spectrum of its electronic warfare capabilities (both offensive and defensive) in order not to reveal to the opponent their own full capabilities. Hence, no one really yet knows Russia’s abilities should it come to an open conflict.

        For Russia, Syria is an uncontested airspace where it can range free, like the West did in various previous Middle Eastern interventions. But NATO airspace would be a contested airspace, where NATO air forces would throw their best at any intruder. In Syria, even modest anti-aircraft capabilities could make life difficult for Russia. The conventional “dumb-bombs” primarily used by Russia in the conflict require an airplane to stay within the range of shoulder-launched air-defence weapons for quite some time, otherwise accuracy drops considerably. In Syria, the US tries to withhold shoulder-launched air-defence weapons from the rebels for the fear they could be sold to terrorists and subsequently used against airliners. But in a scenario against NATO, those weapons are the minimum threat the Russian air-force has to reckon with. And as we can see in Syria, their stocks of smart munitions that would enable then to effectively engage defended targets are very limited.

        In the end, Russia’s military engagement in Syria tells us more about Russian limitations in expeditionary warfare than it does about Russia’s ability to conduct a major military operation on NATO’s eastern borders.
        Last edited by troung; 15 Feb 16,, 05:32.
        To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

        Comment


        • Syria is pushing on ISIS positions while Turkey is reinforcing the Islamic Front and AQ and attacking the Kurds.

          Syrian army targeting Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa
          http://www.straitstimes.com/world/middl ... d-of-raqqa
          11 hours ago
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          MUNICH/BEIRUT (REUTERS) - Russia said on Saturday (Feb 13) a Syria ceasefire plan was more likely to fail than succeed, as Syrian government forces backed by Russian air strikes took rebel ground near Aleppo and set their sights on the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa province. International divisions over Syria surfaced anew at a Munich conference where Russia rejected French charges that it was bombing civilians, just a day after world powers agreed on the "cessation of hostilities" due to begin in a week's time.

          US Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated accusations that Russia was hitting "legitimate opposition groups" and civilians with its bombing campaign in Syria, and said Moscow must change its targets to respect the ceasefire deal. The conflict, reshaped by Russia's intervention last September, has gone into an even higher gear since the United Nations sought to revive peace talks. These were suspended earlier this month in Geneva before they got off the ground.

          Turkish forces shelled Kurdish YPG militia targets near the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Saturday, Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, demanding that the group withdraw from land it recently captured. The US urged both Turkey and the Syrian Kurds to step back and focus instead on tackling the "common threat" of Islamic State militants who control large parts of Syria.

          Meanwhile, the Syrian army looked poised to advance into the Islamic State-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently to pre-empt any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the jihadist insurgents.

          A Syrian military source said the army captured positions at the provincial border between Hama and Raqqa in the last two days and intends to advance further.

          "It is an indication of the direction of coming operations towards Raqqa. In general, the Raqqa front is open ... starting in the direction of the Tabqa area," the source said.

          Tabqa is the location of an air base captured by Islamic State two years ago, and the source said the army had moved to within 35 km (20 miles) of the base. The cessation of hostilities deal agreed by major powers falls short of a formal ceasefire, since it was not signed by the warring parties - the government and rebels seeking to topple President Bashar al-Assad in a five-year war that has killed at least 250,000 people.

          If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border north of the city, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad's rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes. Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states.

          Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, asked at a security conference in Munich on Saturday to assess the chances of the cessation of hostilities deal succeeding, replied: "49 percent." Asked the same question, his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier put the odds at 51 percent.

          The complex, multi-sided civil war in Syria, raging since 2011, has drawn in most regional and global powers, caused the world's worst humanitarian emergency and attracted recruits to Islamist militancy from around the world. Assad, backed on the ground by Iranian combatants and Lebanon's Hezbollah in addition to big power ally Russia, is showing no appetite for a negotiated ceasefire. He said this week that the government's goal was to recapture all of Syria, though he said this could take time.

          The US government said Assad was "deluded" if he thought there was a military solution to the conflict.

          Syrian state television announced the army and allied militia had on Saturday captured the village of al-Tamura overlooking rebel terrain northwest of Aleppo. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported advances in the same area, adding that Russian jets had hit three rebel-held towns near the Turkish border. Government offensives around Aleppo have sent tens of thousands of people fleeing towards the Turkish border.

          The Islamic State, driven by the goal of expanding its "caliphate" rather than reforming Syria - the original goal of the opposition when the conflict began as an unarmed street uprising in 2011 - is being targeted in separate campaigns by a US-led alliance and Assad's government with Russian air support. Regional Kurdish forces supported by Washington are also fighting Islamic State in Raqqa province.

          Gulf states that want Assad gone from power have said they would be willing to send in troops as part of any US-led ground attack against Islamic State. US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Friday he expected Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to send commandos to help recapture Raqqa.

          Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was reported as saying Saudi Arabia will send aircraft to Turkey's Incirlik air base to support the air campaign against Islamic State in Syria.

          "Saudi Arabia is now sending planes to Turkey, to Incirlik. They came and carried out inspections at the base," Cavusoglu told the Yeni Safak newspaper, adding it was unclear how many planes would come and that the Saudis might also send soldiers.

          Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Saturday in Munich there was no need to scare anyone with a ground operation in Syria.

          Two Syrian rebel commanders told Reuters on Friday that insurgents had been sent "excellent quantities" of Grad rockets with a range of 20 km (12 miles) by foreign backers in recent days to help confront the Russian-backed offensive in Aleppo. Foreign opponents of Assad, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have been supplying vetted rebel groups with weapons via a Turkey-based operations centre. Some of these groups, which have been a regular target of the Russian air strikes, have received military training overseen by the US Central Intelligence Agency.
          To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

          Comment


          • Originally posted by troung View Post
            Thankfully when one looks at it that way. Though only because Putin stepped up, otherwise AQ and ideological allies might hold one part and ISIS the other.
            In other words, Afghanistan before 11 Sept with major powers throwing in moneys when it's needed to upset the balance.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • In other words, Afghanistan before 11 Sept with major powers throwing in moneys when it's needed to upset the balance.
              With us backing a coalition spearheaded by the Taliban, ignoring the presence of AQ, in the hope that people who say they will be secular rule wisely.
              To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

              Comment


              • Originally posted by troung View Post
                With us backing a coalition spearheaded by the Taliban, ignoring the presence of AQ, in the hope that people who say they will be secular rule wisely.
                Really? And here I thought that once we leave, we take the shackles off the ANA and let them have their blood lust.
                Chimo

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                • I was talking about Syria, there we are backing Islamists, ignoring AQ in the ranks and dreaming of a secular win despite our allies wanting and funding quite outcome.
                  To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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                  • And that's really Israel's problem, not ours. Let them bleed for it.
                    Chimo

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                    • Check this out! They made it to a ceasefire!
                      The United States, Russia and other members of the International Syrian Support Group have agreed to introduce a ceasefire in Syria in one week.
                      http://rbth.com/international/2016/0...the-war_567825

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                      • Oops , seems to be heating up

                        FIGHTING HAS BEGUN! Turkey Shelling into Syria; Directly Attacking Syrian Arab Army and perimeter of Russian Base in Latakia.

                        According to Jewsnews, those positions are held by the Syrian Arab Army (legitimate, duly-elected government of Syria) and are NOT being aimed at ISIS terrorists! These are direct attacks by Turkey upon the lawful government forces of Syria. With their rebel allies falling to the legitimate government of Syria, Turkey has now begun shelling into Syria to aid their Rebel forces and ISIS Terrorists.

                        Sources on the ground inside Syria claim that the Turks began a furious artillery barrage at about 6:00 AM eastern US time today. Turkey is also targeting the Kurdish YPG.Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 1.49.23 PM

                        It is unclear at this time, whether the YPG is pro-Bashar Assad and his duly elected government, but it is clear that YPG directly engaged and destroyed ISIS in past battles. So on the surface, it appears that YPG are the “good guys” and Turkey is attacking them!

                        Russia Prime Minister has warned US and Arab Countries Not to Dare Enter Syria With Armies threatening:

                        “Invading Syria Will Start A New World War.”

                        If Russia initiates an offensive against Turkey, even though they may have lawful grounds to do so, it is clear that Turkey will appeal to NATO and having been “attacked” will try to invoke Article 5 of the NATO self-defense agreement. That would require NATO to come to the defense of Turkey, thus engaging Russia directly.

                        One intelligence source in the US, “This Has Disaster Written All Over It.”

                        AVIANO AIR BASE, Italy -- A C-17 Globemaster III takes off from here bound for McChord Air Force Base, Wash., after transiting through Italy. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Mitch Fuqua)
                        A Boeing C-17 Globemaster III enroute
                        UPDATE: 12:32 PM EST — Turkish warplanes are flying on the Turkey side of the Turkey/Syria Border, fast and low. Russian warplanes are flying on the Syrian side of the Turkey/Syria border. If any single one of these pilots flies across — or fires across – the border, “all hell could break lose” today.

                        URGENT: 1:56 PM Eastern US Time, 13 February 2016 — Stratfor is now confirming Russia has dispatched a ship to the Mediterranean, to deliver Nuclear-Tipped Cruise Missiles.

                        URGENT UPDATE: 2:45 PM Eastern US Time — UK military members told to cancel all plans and all leave, prepare for deployment to Syria!

                        UPDATE: 2:49 PM Eastern US Time — Turkish Military Artillery Forces have just begun yet another barrage of artillery fire into Syria; this one is directly targeting the Syrian Arab Army and is a direct attack upon the lawful government of Syria — Turkey is now levying war upon Syria. Turkey attacked first. Turkey cannot expect to be able to invoke NATO Article 5 because Turkey attacked first.hqdefault

                        UPDATE: 2:58 PM Eastern US Time — A fleet of Russian Antonov-124 cargo planes (the largest cargo planes in the world) have begun arriving in Syria carrying Russian Tanks, Nuclear-tipped artillery shells and other major weaponry. Within the last 90 minutes, two of these massive cargo aircraft have landed and are unloading. Other Antoniv’s can be seen circling under protection from Russian fighter jets.

                        UPDATE: 4:01 PM Eastern US Time — According to CNN, The Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia announced: “Assad will leave — have no doubt about it. He will either leave by a political process or he will be removed by force.”

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                        • What happens when Russia starts to lose people over Turkish attacks?
                          "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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                          • Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                            What happens when Russia starts to lose people over Turkish attacks?
                            You mean when their detterance fails?

                            Recognize a Kurdish state?
                            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                              You mean when their detterance fails?

                              Recognize a Kurdish state?
                              Oooh....I like that. And arm it?
                              "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

                              Comment


                              • And that's really Israel's problem, not ours. Let them bleed for it.
                                Qatar, Saudi Arabia and company have had every bribed former diplomat and policy expert flooding our op-ed pages calling for an American war with Russia over Syria to put Islamists into power. People are trying to make it our problem.

                                Oooh....I like that. And arm it?
                                The YPG (PKK offshoot/the bulk of the American supported SDF) is getting a lot of VKS CAS support and is fighting to close IF/FSA/JAN supply lines into Aleppo.

                                Turkish stupidity is really helping to bring about that Kurdish state they don't want.
                                To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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