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  • Originally posted by Versus View Post
    The Su-24 black box, says that it wasn't in Turkey at all, according to Russians...

    Sputnik says otherwise

    The decoding of the "black box" from a Russian warplane downed by Turkey is impossible with available means due to severe damage to internal memory boards and will require help from scientific institutions possessing advanced data retrieval and decoding technology, the Russian Defense Ministry said Monday.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/201512...#ixzz3uy98j9x7

    Comment


    • Originally posted by J`ve View Post
      Sputnik says otherwise
      That was the information we got, but I see that it was updated.

      Comment


      • http://breakingdefense.com/2015/12/h...ion-dominance/

        Air, Land, Strategy & Policy

        How To Stop Islamic State’s Escalation Dominance
        By James Kitfield on December 23, 2015 at 6:00 AM
        F-18 taking off to strike Syria

        F-18 taking off to strike Syria

        While President Barack Obama’s declared both that the U.S. is hitting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria “harder than ever” and that progress in the campaign to degrade and defeat the group “needs to keep coming faster,” he revealed clearly that the administration is in a race against time. American officials believed that their anti-ISIL strategy and military campaign of the last year-and-a-half had achieved a stalemate: The momentum of the ISIL juggernaut that captured large swaths of Syria and Iraq was largely checked, but U.S.-backed proxies have struggled to roll back the terrorist group’s vast territorial gains.

        In fact, ISIL (which we’ll refer to as Daesh from now on) has, in fact, recaptured “escalation dominance” outside of Syria with a series of deadly terrorist attacks in Egypt, Lebanon, France, and the United States, even as its reach and influence continues to grow through increased pledges of allegiance from far-flung extremist groups. Meanwhile, the Syrian civil war that fuels its rise has produced the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II; shifted the political dynamic in Western countries far to the right, with unpredictable long-term implications; and provoked open fighting between a NATO ally and Moscow when Turkey downed a Russian warplane.

        That steep escalation curve has prompted some of the leading experts in the country to implore the Obama Administration to adjust its strategy and contemplate more aggressive measures against Daesh, ranging from enforcing no-fly zones and safe sanctuaries inside Syria, to reintroducing U.S. ground forces to break Daesh’s hold on major population centers. Each of those options carries great risk. But so does the current trajectory towards a regional meltdown coupled with expanding terrorist attacks that are drawing major powers into the Syrian vortex.
        Ryan Crocker (1)

        Ryan Crocker

        “The Middle East is in the worst shape it’s been in a century, with a series of conflicts that are unprecedented in modern Arab history,” said Ryan Crocker, a preeminent Middle East expert and the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq during the 2007 U.S. “troop surge” that pulled the country back from the brink of civil war. The roots of the current crisis are similar to that earlier conflict: historical animosities between Sunni and Shiite Muslims that the terrorists of Sunni Daesh –and its predecessor Al Qaeda in Iraq — were determined to stoke into a regional conflict so that a fundamentalist Sunni caliphate could rise from the ashes. Seizing its opportunity in the Syrian civil war, Daesh has largely achieved that long-sought goal of Islamist extremists.

        Given the apocalyptic, “end of days” slant to its medieval, Salafist ideology of a war between Islam and “non-believers,” the group is trying to provoke major powers to join the fray through terror attacks and calls for Western recruits to strike at home.

        “The only way to defeat a group like ISIS and its caliphate is to take away its territory, but there is no regional ground force able to do that even with US airpower,” said Crocker. He would significantly increase the intensity of the US air campaign and establish no-fly zones and safe havens for Syrians in the north and south alongside Turkish and Jordanian allies. That would signal to Sunni Arabs that the Western powers are concerned about their welfare, drain support from Daesh and push back against [Syrian dictator Bashar] al-Assad and his Russian allies. “The alternative is to follow the same strategy we’ve pursued for the last 16 months,” said Crocker. “In that case we should expect the same results.”

        Former CIA Director and Central Command leader David Petraeus agrees. “Syria today is a geopolitical Chernobyl, spewing instability and extremism over the region and the rest of the world,” Petraeus said in Congressional testimony in September. “Like a nuclear disaster, the fallout from the meltdown of Syria threatens to be with us for decades, and the longer it is permitted to continue, the more severe the damage will be.”


        David Petreaus

        David Petreaus

        All About Territory

        But Crocker and Petraeus oppose reintroducing major U.S. ground combat units to the Middle East to expel Daesh. They both know from bitter experience in Iraq and Afghanistan how the presence of large scale US ground forces can play into the extremist narrative of “Christian crusader” forces stealing Muslim lands. A whole generation of U.S. military and diplomatic officials also learned firsthand how difficult it is for US military forces to extricate themselves from unstable conflict zones once they are introduced.

        War teaches many lessons, however, and after a decade of fighting and going to school on Islamist extremists, US counterterrorism officials also understand that as long as ISIS holds territory and owns the narrative of an Islamic caliphate at war with “non-believers,” its strength and allure will continue to grow in the pantheon of global jihadists. That was true of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda in the sanctuary of Afghanistan in the 1990s, and it’s true of ISIS today.

        The power of territory in the narrative of Islamist extremists can be traced to their fundamentalist religious ideology. In declaring himself the leader of the caliphate in a sermon in Mosul in July of 2014, for instance, Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi spoke at length about the importance of reviving an Islamic homeland that has not existed since well before the Ottoman Empire, and of the obligation of Muslims worldwide to defend it. “This is a duty upon the Muslims – a duty that has been lost for centuries,” said al-Baghdadi. “The Muslims sin by losing it, and they must always seek to establish it.”

        Roughly 30,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries have heeded that call to defend the caliphate, doubling in number in the past year, and providing ISIS with a steady stream of recruits to replace those lost in battle. Each new terrorist “spectacular” like the downing of a Russian airliner or the massacre in Paris helps create more recruits. That’s a major reason why FBI Director James Comey recently stated that the United States currently faces its greatest terrorist threat since 9/11.
        Bruce Hoffman

        Bruce Hoffman

        “ISIS has delivered what Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda only promised, which is to redraw the borders Western powers established at the end of World War I in breaking up the Ottoman Empire,” said Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert and director of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University. “And whereas six months ago the group was considered primarily a local threat, we’re now seeing its branches spreading and more affiliates pledging allegiance in places like Libya, the Sinai and Afghanistan, and launching terror attacks in its name. So the current incremental strategy has not significantly undermined ISIS, which in many ways has adopted Al Qaeda’s expansionist strategy, only with even more ruthless execution.”

        Recognizing that Daesh’s escalation threatens to outpace his incremental strategy of containment, President Obama dispatched Defense Secretary Ash Carter to the Middle East to secure more alliance contributions for the coalition fight. In general, however, the administration has decided to stick with a patient strategy that combines precision U.S. airstrikes and intelligence gathering with train-and-equip activities on the ground to empower various local proxies.

        The risk for Obama and his successor is that Daesh continues to grow and gain strength, launching ever more deadly terrorist attacks. Already some experts believe that Washington is only one spectacular terrorist attack away from having to reconsider its aversion to U.S. “boots on the ground” in the fight against the Islamic State.
        David Barno

        David Barno

        “I don’t think the anti-IS campaign calls for U.S. ground troops at this point, but that could certainly change if we suffer another terrorist attack on a grand scale, and the U.S. military should certainly be thinking what a ground attack would look like if it received that order,” said retired Lt. Gen. Dave Barno, former senior commander of all U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. Daesh is growing into a “proto-state,” he noted, amassing significant resources through various streams of taxation and extortion; implementing a judicial system based on the group’s fundamentalist interpretation of Islamist sharia law, which includes beheadings, amputations and sexual slavery; and growing in territory and influence through pledges of allegiance from other jihadist groups who now see its brand as the gold standard in terms of striking terror in the hearts of their enemies.

        “The Islamic State is not contained, and this geographic expansion of its influence we’re seeing in places like Libya, Afghanistan, and the Sinai is extraordinarily dangerous,” said Barno. “The longer this proto-state exists, the more power it will accumulate. The only way to counter that is to take back territory it has captured.”


        Anthony Zinni

        Gen. Anthony Zinni

        A Real War Against Daesh

        One expert who believes the United States is foolish to rule out U.S. combat forces taking territory from Daesh is Anthony Zinni, former leader of Central Command. The template he envisions is the 1991 Persian Gulf War in which the U.S. led a large coalition with significant Sunni Arab participation, and quickly handed off responsibility to hold and govern recaptured territory to Arab partners.

        “President Obama and [French President Francois] Hollande have declared that we are at war with ISIS, and that the enemy must be defeated, but at the same time we’re taking the option of ground forces off the table, which is the only way to seize territory and defeat this enemy. That only makes the West look weak, and causes more disenfranchised youth to flock to the caliphate of a strong ISIS,” Zinni said in an interview. A Desert Storm paradigm of overwhelming force and a broad, inclusive coalition, he said, would limit casualties and quickly overwhelm Daesh defenders. “We’re only one ISIS atrocity away from having to confront the 800-pound gorilla in this debate, which is the need for U.S. ground forces to shape the anti-ISIS campaign.”

        In terms of a campaign plan, Zinni envisions a NATO force led by two to four U.S. combat brigades attacking Daesh’s Syrian redoubts from the north out of Turkey; an Arab coalition backed by U.S. airpower and led by the Gulf Cooperation Council of Persian Gulf states attacking from the south out of Jordan; and an Iraqi army of Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces backed by U.S. airpower attacking simultaneously from the east. “Such a coordinated campaign would crush ISIS in a matter of a few months, at most,” said Zinni.

        Of course the most daunting aspect of coordinating such a campaign would be the diplomacy involved in getting all the players on a common page after so much bloodshed. Iran and the Assad regime would need to be persuaded to stay out of the fight against ISIS, which as Shiites they abhor. There would also need to be de-confliction with Russian forces inside Syria. Even more difficult, the effort would require a diplomatic mediation on the future of Syria the day after ISIS is expelled from territory there. The one advantage in that scenario is that ISIS has virtually no friends in the community of nation-states.

        “The larger point is that the United States needs to be creative in trying to correct the mistakes the Western powers made in drawing the borders of the Middle East after World War I, and that requires thinking strategically. Almost no one in Washington does that anymore,” said Zinni. “Somehow we’ve gone from rash and stupid with the [George W.] Bush Administration, to weak and ineffective with the Obama Administration.”

        Comment


        • Interesting article but surely the Obama administration must be calculating that the status quo will be cheaper in american lives and money than some version of the alternative proposed by Zinni, and removing IS in such a form is just too complicated with the overall situation in Syria.

          On another note, the Syrian army are making gains with help from the Russians in gaining full control of the alawite province of Latakia.

          http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35395328

          Comment


          • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
            Interesting article but surely the Obama administration must be calculating that the status quo will be cheaper in american lives and money than some version of the alternative proposed by Zinni, and removing IS in such a form is just too complicated with the overall situation in Syria.
            Removing IS isn't really an American problem to solve because IS itself isn't the root of the problem. The real issue is that governments in the region don't have the power or legitimacy to secure their own territory. The US can certainly be part of the solution, but until the players in the neighborhood find a way to fill the power vacuum that exists in Syria and Iraq, there will continue to be an endless series of warlords ready to step up and fill the gap.

            Can the US move in with ground forces and crush IS? Undoubtedly. But without a local solution to filling the power vacuum in the region on a permanent basis, the US is left with the unpalatable choice of filling the vacuum itself with long term occupation or going home and watching as the warlords re-emerge and the next Al Qaeda or IS rears its head.

            Comment


            • I a bathing in the tears of op-ed writers who are demandng Obama send troops to rescue the Islamic Front and AQ.

              Is Syrian regime's seizure of Sheikh Miskin a tipping point?
              http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...h-miskin.html#
              DAMASCUS, Syria — Syrian opposition forces had seized the city of Sheikh Miskin, in Daraa's northern countryside, at the end of 2014, but on Jan. 26, the regime regained control of the city, aided by Russian air cover in part of a military campaign launched Dec. 28. The government forces of President Bashar al-Assad had earlier regained control over strategic towns in the countryside of Latakia, including Salma, recovered Jan. 12, and Rabia and Rawda, retaken Jan. 24. The government forces' progress on several fronts cannot be isolated from the ongoing negotiations to end the war. The Geneva III peace talks officially convened Feb. 1.
              Summary
              ⎙ Print
              Aided by Russian air cover, the Syrian regime retook the strategic city of Sheikh Miskin and advanced on numerous other fronts, likely affecting the Geneva III talks.
              Author Mustafa al-Haj Posted February 5, 2016
              TranslatorPascale el-Khoury

              Sheikh Miskin — the fourth-largest city in Daraa province, with a population of 45,000 — is situated 54 miles from Damascus and 13 miles north of Daraa city, which makes it the gateway from Daraa’s eastern countryside to its western countryside, which is controlled by opposition forces. The General Command of the Army and Armed Forces declared in a Jan. 26 statement broadcast by SANA that the Syrian army, in cooperation with popular defense groups and backed by Russian air power, had restored security and stability to Sheikh Miskin city following a “series of successes in which the army assumed control of several sites, most importantly the Brigade 82 Camp and al-Hash hill, in addition to destroying centers of the terrorist organizations,” causing them huge losses in fighters and equipment. On the same day, Russia Today posted video of Syrian armed forces entering the city.

              Kamel Sakr, a field reporter and expert on military affairs, has covered several operations by the Syrian army. Sakr told Al-Monitor, “The Syrian army’s control of the city is an important step. The city stretches over a large area, 114 square kilometers [44 square miles], and is a strategic location linking Daraa to Damascus. It is also adjacent to the crossing point for militants from Daraa toward the countryside of Quneitra.”

              Sakr said, “Controlling Sheikh Miskin [alone] is insufficient, however, to halt the armed groups’ advance and cut off their supply lines between Daraa and Quneitra. Accordingly, the Syrian army must advance toward the west, to the town of Nawa. This would have a significant effect on the Syrian army’s advance on the Daraa front.”

              Sakr added, “The Syrian government sees progress on the ground as a political gain. This is legitimate, considering that politics cannot be separated from military operations, and whoever controls more geographical territory can impose the pace of the political process that might prevail in the Geneva III negotiations.” He also noted, “Moscow has increased its military support for the Syrian regime, because it is aware that [the regime’s] advance on the ground will give it a stronger position in the negotiations.”

              Several factors led to the opposition factions' loss of Sheikh Miskin, most notably, 33 consecutive days of Russian airstrikes to establish complete control over the city. Another factor involved internal differences among the opposition factions. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been at odds with the Muthanna Movement (which had secretly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in March 2015), as well as Jabhat al-Nusra, following attempts by the FSA to isolate radical Islamist forces, according to the pro-regime Al-Mayadeen news website. These factors weakened the factions’ resistance to the army’s attacks and hampered the entry of FSA fighters from other areas to assist in defending the city.

              Mohammed Ibrahim, a media activist working in the opposition-controlled areas in the city of Dael, in the Daraa countryside, told Al-Monitor, “The main reason for the loss of Sheikh Miskin is the Russian airstrikes. More than 75 sorties were launched on the first day, and these were backed by Syrian artillery and missile attacks. This thwarted the attempts by the opposition battalions to repel the fierce offensive. Up to the fall of the city, Russian warplanes launched more than 700 raids.”

              He added, “The cold weather conditions and snow weakened [the opposition's] resilience, not to mention unorganized FSA activity and lack of a joint operations room. This confused the opposition fighters and undermined their resistance, although they were willing to die to defend the city.” Ibrahim said that residents of the city had fled to neighboring regions in the early days of the Russian air campaign. “The few families that remained in the city until the last days left before the entry of the Syrian army. The Syrian regime has taken over an empty and destroyed city,” he said.

              Gareth Bayley, Britain's special representative for Syria, was quoted by the Syrian Observer on Jan. 27 as saying, “The fall of al-Sheikh Miskeen to regime forces today reveals the hypocrisy of Russian targeting in Syria … Regime and Russian onslaught on the moderate opposition and civilians must stop.” Bayley also said, “This blatant targeting of opposition groups is deeply concerning, particularly as it comes just days before UN-led negotiations for a political settlement leading to transition in Syria.”

              Days later, on Feb. 1, Iyad Abdul Hamid al-Daws, a captain in the Yarmouk Army in Daraa, appeared on Halab Today TV and said, “The international support for the opposition in Daraa is modest and insufficient to achieve victory over the regime. We have no anti-aircraft missiles to face Russia's advanced air force.” He added, “The opposition groups are now preparing a counter-campaign to be carried out from several axes in order to take back the city.”

              That said, opposition fighters might not be able to regain the territory they lost as long as Russian support for the regime continues. The government’s control over Sheikh Miskin may herald a tipping point in the balance of power in southern Syria and pave the way for the regime’s control over other areas in Daraa province.

              In addition, the regime on Feb. 3 lifted the opposition's siege of Nubl and al-Zahra, cities in the northern Aleppo countryside. This operation could cut the supply routes to opposition fighters coming from Turkey and weaken their ability to confront the regime. Thus, government forces might soon make advances on the northern front.

              All this will reflect in one way or another on Geneva III. Already, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura announced in Geneva on Feb. 3 — only two days after the start of the fledgling process — the suspension of talks until Feb. 25, in part due to ongoing Russian operations against opposition-controlled areas.
              Battle for northern Aleppo intensifies overnight as government forces attack several villages By Leith Fadel - 06/02/2016 655 0 The battle for northern Aleppo is reaching its critical stages as the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Mechanized Division – alongside Hezbollah, the National Defense Forces (NDF), and several Iraqi paramilitary units – intensify their military operations against the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen along the Aleppo-Gaziantep Highway. Fierce firefights between the Islamist rebels and the government forces have reported inside several villages in the northern Aleppo countryside tonight; these battled have reportedly resulted in a high death for both sides as they trade-off attacks in order to advance their positions at the contested villages and hilltops. Specifically, the most violent battles are currently taking place inside the villages of Bayyanoun and Kafr Naya near the large hilltop of Tal Hardatineen, where the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies are on the offensive against the exhausted Islamist rebels that are led by Jabhat Al-Nusra and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham. As the sun begins to rise over the northern Aleppo countryside, the Syrian Armed Forces and the Islamist rebels will be immersed in a battle for the imperative Aleppo-Gaziantep Highway that was once the latter’s most important supply route to the Aleppo Governorate from their launching point in southern Turkey.

              http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...eral-villages/ | Al-Masdar News
              Strategic city of Darayya is completely surrounded as the Syrian Army prepares massive assault By Leith Fadel - 06/02/2016 1225
              Earlier today, the Syrian Arab Army’s 63rd Brigade of the 4th Mechanized Division arrive to the Four Seasons Neighborhood of Darayya in order to begin what is likely the final push to capture this strategic city located in the West Ghouta (collection of farms) of rural Damascus. According to an Al-Masdar media correspondent inside the city of Damascus, several soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have confirmed that they are making their final preparations before they launch the massive military operation to seize the city of Darayya from the Islamist rebels of Ajnad Al-Sham and Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group).

              Should the Syrian Armed Forces begin the final push to take Darayya in the coming days, they will likely launch their final assault from four strategic points, which will ultimately pin the remaining Islamist rebels down in the Darayya Association District and force them to either surrender or fight till the death. The Islamist rebels control only 30 percent of city as of now; this is a dramatic change since October of 2015 when they were controlling more than half of Darayya and the main road leading from the aforementioned city to nearby Mo’adhimiyah. West of Darayya, the Syrian Armed Forces have also surrounded the imperative city of Mo’adhimiyah, which will likely be the next target for the government forces.

              http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...ssive-assault/ | Al-Masdar News
              Syrian Army seizes ISIS supply tunnel in Deir Ezzor City By Leith Fadel - 06/02/2016 635 1 On Friday morning inside the provincial capital of the Deir Ezzor Governortate, the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard – in close coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) – seized a supply tunnel that belonged to the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) in the Old Airport District after a violent battle that lasted for over two hours. The Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade reportedly confiscated a large supply of weapons, ammunition, and telecommunication devices while also killing 3 enemy combatants inside this 18 meter long tunnel under the Old Airport District.

              According to a military source inside of Deir Ezzor City, the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Air Brigade and their allies have reentered the Old Airport District after a 9 month hiatus in which the ISIS terrorists attempted to seize buildings along Ghassan ‘Abboud Street. Meanwhile, at the Al-Rashidiyah District in the downtown area of Deir Ezzor City, ISIS attempted to infiltrate into the Faculty of Arts building near Cinema Fouad Street; however, they were routed by the soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade before they could break-through the building’s barriers. Northwest of Deir Ezzor City, the Syrian Armed Forces and ISIS clashed inside the Al-Baghayliyah District, as the latter attempted to capture both Al-Jazeera University and Tal-Al-Rawad (Al-Rawad Hill) – they would be repelled before nightfall on Friday evening.

              http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...ir-ezzor-city/ | Al-Masdar News
              Syrian Army captures Al-Naymah near the Jordanian border By Leith Fadel - 06/02/2016 1041 1 On Friday night inside the Dara’a Governorate, the Syrian Arab Army’s 38th Brigade of the 5th Armored Division – in close coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) and the Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) – imposed full control over the village of Al-Naymah after a violent battle with the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

              The Syrian Armed Forces launched their powerful assault on Al-Naymah this evening, when they launched a barrage of mortar shells into this village located at the eastern flank of Dara’a City. The capture of Al-Naymah comes just 18 hours after the Syrian Armed Forces seized the imperative town of ‘Itman near the provincial capital of the Dara’a Governorate. With Al-Naymah and ‘Itman under their control, the Syrian Armed Forces have secured the northern and eastern flanks of Dara’a City, leaving the Islamist rebels with only two flanks to attack the provincial capital from. As a result of their military operations near the provincial capital today, the Syrian Armed Forces are inching closer to securing the vast Jordanian border with the Dara’a Governorate; this is something that they have been unable to do since they lost their last border-crossing at Nassib.

              http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...danian-border/ | Al-Masdar News
              To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

              Comment


              • the countries in the American system can't do so without American aid, which I would think, is the most advantageous position for us.

                the question is what degree of aid they need.

                a country like Saudi Arabia is perfect. in control of its territory, still dependent on us but doesn't cost American lives.

                Iraq and Afghanistan are bad. in need of actual us forces but so far not totally out of control.

                Syria is the worst, a total cluster truck.

                look at these countries and you see a trend. countries within the dominion of the American system cost the least and benefit us the most. problematic countries are those at the borders of American system that are in contention between us And another power. most problematic countries are those just outside our control but still at our doorstep.

                the solution is to bring countries in contention deeper into the American system. if we eject them, we'll just expose other parts of our system as the frontiers.

                and, before questioning why, it does us well to look at the prosperity around us, and be grateful.

                Comment


                • http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-al-qaeda.html
                  America’s ISIS War Is Helping Al Qaeda
                  U.S. intelligence and defense officials are increasingly worried their fight against the self-declared Islamic State is benefitting al Qaeda, ISIS’s jihadi rival.

                  U.S. strikes against the self-proclaimed Islamic State have had an unintended beneficiary: al Qaeda.

                  Al Qaeda has exploited the strikes and gained strength, and that has created a growing rift within U.S. national security circles about where the coalition should aim its strikes. Some American intelligence and defense officials and counterterrorism experts are worried that the intense focus on defeating ISIS has blinded the U.S. to the resurgence of al Qaeda, whose growing potency has become more apparent as ISIS becomes weaker.

                  The American air campaign has notably not targeted al Qaeda in Syria, known as Jabhat al Nusra. With its foe, ISIS, under daily coalition bombardment, al Qaeda has been thriving, continuing to re-align itself with local forces, and re-emerging as the world’s enduring terror group.

                  “Now, al Nusra Front and [ISIS] don’t get along… I guess you could say to the extent that we’re weakening [ISIS], maybe it benefits al Nusra Front,” Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, the top U.S. commander in the war against ISIS, conceded in a recent briefing with reporters.

                  In recent days, al Qaeda’s standing in Syria has come under attack in the city of Aleppo, that nation’s commercial hub. U.S. officials now are watching Aleppo to see if al Qaeda’s close relationship with local Syrian forces can endure, even when its fighters are forced to flee the front lines.

                  Opponents of striking al Nusra note the al Qaeda affiliate is one of the few forces that can keep Syria from devolving into a battle between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic State. That is, in Syria, the U.S. is actually worried about the effect of al Qaeda losses.

                  Supporters of doing more are led by the U.S. military’s Central Command, which oversees American efforts in the Middle East, according to two defense officials.

                  “There is concern about it because Jabhat al Nusra and al Qaeda are rebuilding,” a senior defense official familiar with the U.S. war against ISIS told The Daily Beast. “The strikes and the chaos of the region have opened the door for them.”

                  Indeed, al Nusra has even fought alongside local rebel groups that receive weapons and support from the U.S., making al Qaeda’s Syria branch a sometimes indirect beneficiary of American intervention in the conflict. David Petraeus, the influential former general and CIA chief, has even floated the idea of working directly with al Nusra moderates to battle ISIS.

                  And yet the U.S. declared al Nusra a terrorist organization in late 2012.

                  “In Syria, it’s actually remarkable that they managed to survive despite ISIS,” Barak Mendelsohn, a professor and terrorism expert at Haverford College and the author of The Al Qaeda Franchise, told The Daily Beast. He attributed al Qaeda’s success in part to the lessons it learned in Iraq, where, a decade ago, a violent branch of the terror group alienated locals through a systematic campaign of terror, beheadings, and the imposition of strict Islamic rule. The remnants of that group went on to become ISIS.

                  Today, al Nusra isn’t making the same mistakes. “They have put a more friendly face on their actions and are embedding themselves within insurgencies so they’ll be more welcomed by the people,” Mendelsohn said.

                  Such lessons, and subsequent al Qaeda gains, have reached outside of Syria. From Libya to Yemen to Afghanistan, al Qaeda has managed to dig in and survive, largely by insinuating itself into local populations and rebranding itself as the world’s more reasonable global Islamic jihadist movement. At the same time, ISIS, with its boisterous propaganda, barbaric execution videos, and apocalyptic vision, has captured the most public attention and become the main target of the Obama administration’s fight against extremism.

                  Al Nusra has sought to portray itself as a credible rebel force fighting with the Syrian people to overthrow al-Assad. That has helped the group win local support and turn people against ISIS, even though both groups want to ultimately establish an Islamic government.

                  Al Nusra “suffered a string of setbacks in 2014 that forced the group to retrench and rebrand. After those setbacks, [it] was able to parlay the success of battlefield gains against a weakened Assad regime into greater strength and credibility as a ground force,” a U.S. counterterrorism official told The Daily Beast.
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                  “The group’s efforts to cloak themselves as a local force battling the regime, while maintaining the support of the broader al Qaeda network, has helped it emerge as one of al Qaeda’s most potent affiliates,” the official said.

                  A U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast that despite “significant leadership losses” in the past year, “some of [al Qaeda’s] affiliates sought to expand their footprint by taking advantage of local conflicts and perceived grievances.” That model has worked in Syria and in Yemen, where the official said al Qaeda had exploited “increased instability” in the country, gripped by civil war, “to bolster recruitment and gain territory.”

                  “It’s clear that as [ISIS] loses steam, other Sunni extremist groups like al Qaeda could look to reassert themselves,” the official added.

                  As al Qaeda aligns itself with local forces, it increasingly finds that onetime Western foes are unwilling to attack them, in Syria and beyond. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has notably stopped short of launching strikes in the southern part of the country, where al Qaeda dominates the area. And the U.S.-led coalition in Syria has been reluctant to strike al Nusra, allowing the group to switch alliances as needed to survive the war there. In Syria, U.S. airstrikes are largely aimed at ISIS positions in the east, not at al Nusra positions in the country’s north.

                  U.S. military officials argue that, even if their choice of strikes sites may be benefiting al Qaeda in Syria, it doesn’t matter because al Qaeda will use its renewed strength to go after ISIS.

                  “If [ISIS] and al Nusra Front want to fight each other, I wish them both success, but, you know, we’re here to defeat [ISIS], and that’s what we’re going after every day,” MacFarland said.

                  So far, however, that scenario hasn’t happened. Rather, al Qaeda has worked on gaining territory and influence across the region. In the past week, al Qaeda militants in Yemen reclaimed the town of Azzan, a major commercial hub that the group had previously controlled but lost in 2012.

                  With the U.S. military determined to attack primarily ISIS, the biggest threat al Nusra faces is Russian airstrikes, which target all forces opposed to Assad, including rebel groups backed by the American government. The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks Russian strikes, found (PDF) that most of them hit groups other than ISIS, and often al Nusra.

                  In Oman on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters, “Russian airstrikes will not cease until we truly defeat the terrorist organisations [ISIS] and Jabhat al Nusra.”

                  While American forces have occasionally targeted al Qaeda cells in Syria that are looking to attack the West, the U.S. focus remains almost exclusively on ISIS for now.

                  The fight against the Islamic State is receiving a significant boost in the latest Defense Department budget, which allocates an additional $7.5 billion to fight the group, a 50 percent increase from current funding. An additional $1.8 billion is allocated for more than 45,000 additional GPS-guided smart bombs and laser-guided rockets, commonly used in the air campaign against the Islamic State.

                  A Pentagon official explained to The Daily Beast that part of those funds are to potentially expand the U.S. effort to attack ISIS in Libya, where its presence is on par with al Qaeda.

                  For now, as long as ISIS conducts high-profile attacks, like the mass shootings and bombings in Paris and the downing of a Russian airliner, al Qaeda is not the priority. “The problem is everything is about ISIS every day,” the defense official said. “You only have so many rounds in your chamber.”
                  To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                  Comment


                  • Lies! Al Queda is on the run. Bin Laden is dead and GM is alive! Our economy is strong. Re-elect Obama. Win the Future!!!!
                    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

                    Comment


                    • If we bombed on AQ/JAN and even ignored their close ideological allies in the Islamic Front the frontline would still probably collapse and allow Assad to advance. Turkey and Qatar support these guys and for whatever reason America is allowing the group behind 9/11 operate openly.

                      What a train wreck.

                      Meanwhile Turkey which buys oil from ISIS and openly supports terrorist groups is mad over the YPG, which happens to be the PKK.

                      As Syria Devolves Further, Allies Criticize American Policy

                      By CEYLAN YEGINSUFEB. 10, 2016

                      Turkish President Criticizes U.S.

                      ISTANBUL — Allies of the United States sharply criticized the Obama administration’s Syria policy on Wednesday, when the outgoing foreign minister of France called it “ambiguous” and the president of Turkey said American inaction had allowed the region to descend into a blood bath.

                      President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey called into question the American commitment to fighting terrorist groups in Syria and cited the Washington’s failure to recognize a Syrian Kurdish rebel group as a terrorist organization.

                      “Are you on our side or the side of the terrorist P.Y.D. and P.K.K. organizations?” Mr. Erdogan said in an address to provincial officials in the Turkish capital, Ankara, referring to American support for members of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party, or P.Y.D., in their fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

                      Tensions between Turkey and the United States, NATO allies, have been escalating over their differing positions on the Kurds. Turkey considers the Kurdish Democratic Union Party to be a terrorist organization through its affiliation with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or P.K.K., which has carried out a three-decade-long insurgency against Turkey.

                      “Hey, America. Because you never recognized them as a terrorist group, the region has turned into a sea of blood,” Mr. Erdogan said.

                      The harsh words came a day after the State Department spokesman, John Kirby, reiterated American support for Kurdish fighters battling the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. “Even the best of friends aren’t going to agree on everything,” Mr. Kirby said. “Kurdish fighters have been some of the most successful in going after Daesh inside Syria.”

                      The Turkish government summoned the United States ambassador, John R. Bass, late Tuesday to express its unease over the “supportive” remarks for the Kurdish group in Syria, according to Turkish officials.

                      In his speech Thursday, Mr. Erdogan said there was no difference between the Kurdish groups fighting in Syria and the insurgents battling the Turkish government.

                      “We have written proof!” he said. “We tell the Americans, ‘It’s a terror group.’ But the Americans stand up and say, ‘No, we don’t see them as terror groups.’ ”

                      Criticism of American policy in Syria continued Wednesday in Paris, where Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister reiterated his longstanding disapproval.

                      While announcing his decision to step down after nearly four years as foreign minister, Mr. Fabius said the American plan for Syria was “ambiguous” and denounced an absence of “very strong commitment,” according to Reuters.

                      The Obama administration has said for months that its plan for confronting the chaos inside Syria was to try to forge a political transition away from President Bashar al-Assad through talks mediated by the United Nations. But as those negotiations collapsed last week amid heavy bombings by the Syrian government backed by Russian forces.

                      The bombing campaign has worsened the already dire situation in Syria in recent weeks, with at least 60,000 more people fleeing to the Turkish border this week.

                      The Turkish prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, said on Wednesday that the relentless bombing around the city of Aleppo, in northern Syria, by government and Russian forces amounted to a campaign of “ethnic cleansing.”

                      “One of the aims of the latest attacks is to conduct ethnic cleansing,” Mr. Davutoglu said at a news conference in The Hague, Netherlands. “Ethnic cleansing in Syria and Aleppo aimed at only leaving regime supporters behind is being conducted by the Syrian regime and Russia in a very deliberate way.”

                      “Every refugee that we accept helps their ethnic cleansing policy, but we will continue to accept refugees,” he said.

                      Mr. Davutoglu added that the United Nations Security Council and the international community were being “two-faced” for demanding that Turkey open its borders, but not moving “a finger to solve the Syrian crisis” or to stop the Russian bombings, according to The Associated Press.

                      The Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly I. Churkin, on Wednesday defended his country’s actions in Syria. “We are not about to be apologetic about what we are doing,” he said after a closed-door meeting of the Security Council.

                      Mr. Churkin would not commit to halting Russia’s airstrikes so that humanitarian aid could be delivered without risk to civilians in and around besieged cities in Syria, but he did say that Moscow “will be prepared to consider all reasonable proposals.”

                      At his news conference in The Hague, Mr. Davutoglu, the Turkish prime minister, accused the P.Y.D., the Kurdish militia in Syria, of collaborating with Russian forces and attacking civilians.

                      Turkey fears that support from Russia and the United States for the P.Y.D. could create an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria that would spur the separatist ambitions of Kurdish militants in Turkey.

                      The Turkish military started a major counterinsurgency campaign against Kurdish militants in the predominately Kurdish southeast region last year, imposing round-the-clock curfews in many towns and cities. Hundreds of militants and civilians have died in the operations.
                      Last edited by troung; 10 Feb 16,, 22:05.
                      To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                      Comment


                      • Well I guess we should bomb them too...

                        http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politi...hreat-experts/
                        Report: Syria's al-Nusra 'more dangerous' than ISIS

                        By Ryan Browne

                        Updated 8:39 AM ET, Tue January 26, 2016
                        Al Qaeda affiliate gains ground in Syria

                        Al Qaeda affiliate gains ground in Syria 03:02
                        Story highlights

                        New report says al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, al Nusra Front, is "more dangerous to the U.S. than ISIS" in the long term
                        Al Nusra is an "existential" threat, according to the report's authors

                        Washington (CNN)Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is a greater threat to the United States in the long term than is ISIS, making the United States' current single-minded focus on the latter group misguided, a new report is charging.

                        Al-Nusra is "much more dangerous to the U.S. than the ISIS model in the long run," according to the authors of a report labeling both groups "existential" threats. The report was released last week by the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute.

                        The report criticizes the administration's ISIS-centric strategy, saying, "Any strategy that leaves Jabhat al-Nusra in place will fail to secure the American homeland."

                        However, the chief of staff of the U.S. Army, Gen. Mark Milley, in a speech Wednesday said that only Russia constituted a potential "existential" threat due to its possession of a large nuclear arsenal capable of striking the U.S.

                        The report argues that ISIS and al-Nusra attacks could threaten the global economy and provoke "Western societies to impose severe controls on ... freedoms and civil liberties," thereby endangering "American values and way of life."

                        The report's authors include Fred Kagan, considered an architect of the 2007 "surge" strategy in Iraq, which increased American troops and engagement with local tribes to stabilize that country, and Kim Kagan, a former adviser to Gen. David Petraeus on Afghanistan strategy and the president of the Institute for the Study of War.

                        Though for now al-Nusra hasn't undertaken attacks in the West like ISIS has, Kagan said it's just as potent.

                        "While ISIS is flashier ... both represent an existential threat, both wish to attack the homeland, both seek the mobilization of Muslim communities against the West," she said.

                        In fact, Kagan warned that al Qaeda's Syrian branch represented a longer-term and more intractable threat than ISIS and that targeting al-Nusra would be more difficult than targeting the other group, both of which take advantage of the chaos of the Syrian civil war to expand their reach.

                        "Al-Nusra is quietly intertwining itself with the Syrian population and Syrian opposition. ... They are waiting in the wings to pick up the mantle of global jihad once ISIS falls," she said.

                        RELATED: What is al Nusra Front?

                        Peace talks between the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and select rebel groups are tentatively scheduled to begin this month in Geneva, Switzerland, with the United States hoping that a resolution to the conflict will curtail the power of ISIS and other terror groups.

                        Al-Nusra, like ISIS, won't be participating in the talks, but the report argues that al-Nusra is "a spoiler that will almost certainly cause the current strategy in Syria to fail."

                        The State Department has said that over 35,000 foreign fighters from 100 countries have traveled to Syria to participate in the conflict and that the al-Nusra Front attracts the second-most foreign fighters, ranking only behind ISIS, according to Nick Heras of the Center for a New American Security.

                        Al-Nusra emerged in late 2011 during the early days of the Syrian civil war and was initially largely made up of battle-hardened Syrians who had traveled to Iraq to fight U.S. troops during the American engagement there.

                        It has emerged as one of the most effective groups fighting the Syrian regime and currently controls swaths of northwestern Syria. The group holds "coercive power" over several opposition groups, serving as a sort of "kingmaker," Heras said.

                        Al-Nusra does "not have the same capacity as ISIS, but its greatest usefulness is as a base of operations" to other elements of al Qaeda that may seek to strike Western targets," Heras said.

                        The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in January 2014 told the Senate intelligence committee that al-Nusra "does have aspirations for attacks on the homeland."

                        However, in the DNI's 2015 threat assessment report to the Senate Armed Services Committee, al-Nusra is listed under regional threats and not named in the global threats section. The State Department's 2014 Country Reports on Terrorism also labels al-Nusra a threat to "the Syrian opposition, Syrian civilians, and other states in the region."

                        Kagan said she believes al-Nusra has made a tactical decision not to attack the West for the time being.

                        "Right now, al-Nusra has decided not to overtly host attack cells because the al Qaeda leadership's priority is preserving success in Syria and avoiding being targeted by the U.S.," she said.

                        But she explained that the report still treated it as a larger threat than ISIS because, "We define a threat as having the capability and the intent. ... The capability is already there, and in time the intent will be as well."
                        To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                        Comment


                        • This is what we want, isn't it? Keep them killing each other.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • This is what we want, isn't it? Keep them killing each other.
                            Sir if that was our plan it would be fine, but it seems something like trying to overthrow Assad and replacing him with hipsters and hoping in vain that radical groups with far greater support in the capitals of our "allies" and with their bagmen don't take power; while wanting the Kurds to fight ISIS and hoping they don't try and hold "Arab" territory - all while half assing an air campaign against ISIS. Which has led to America training vetted TOW armed FSGs for the Islamic Front and JAN for use against Assad, and the western media bitching that Putin is killing AQ members or guys we would consider as bad as the Taliban.

                            Seems the YPG/PKK, in the form of the SDF, has wised up and is playing Obama off Putin and using the VKS to bomb the FSA/IF/JAN and the USAF to bomb ISIS. While turkey has closed its border to refugees (though not terrorists) to try and create a crisis.

                            Moderate Syrian Rebel Factions Face Wipe-Out

                            Last Updated: February 07, 2016
                            Jamie Dettmer

                            GAZIENTEP AND KILIS, TURKEY —
                            The sweeping Russian-backed offensive in northern Syria by President Bashar al-Assad’s military and foreign fighters from Iran, Lebanon and Afghanistan is triggering a humanitarian crisis by propelling thousands of civilians to flee to the Turkish border, say political activists and rebel commanders.

                            And the daunting offensive is altering dramatically the balance of insurgent forces in the north of the country to the benefit of al-Qaida-linked groups and the Islamic State, they say.

                            Some forecast an implosion of secular and less religious-based militias aligned with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) in northern Syria. “This is the end of the FSA in northern Syria,” Bassam al-Kuwaiti, a well-known figure in political opposition circles, told VOA.

                            Merge, disband

                            Al-Kuwaiti said some moderate militias will be forced to merge; others will have no alternative but to disband altogether and join either the powerful Islamist insurgent group Ahrar al-Sham, [Free Men of Syria] or enlist with al-Qaida’s affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra.

                            “They will have no other option,” he said.

                            Al-Qaida’s affiliate and Ahrar al-Sham are partners in an alliance known as Jaysh al-Fatah, or Army of Conquest, and have recently debated formally merging.

                            In villages and towns northwest and north of Aleppo, FSA militias are already relying on Ahrar al-Sham and al-Nusra to help them to try to survive a week-long Assad onslaught that has seen Russian warplanes fly hundreds of round-the-clock bombing sorties.

                            Ahmad, a rebel fighter, said he and his unit came under 400 airstrikes in four days

                            Regime forces have managed to capture a chain of villages that control the main rebel supply route for insurgent-held districts in Aleppo city.

                            “The situation is disastrous,” said rebel fighter Abu Zaid, who had just returned to Turkey from the front-lines. “The Russians are flying six-plane sorties and we are being bombarded by artillery and coming under multiple rocket attacks.”

                            Shi'ite fighters

                            Several rebel commanders say most of the ground forces against them consist of foreign Shi’ite fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement and from Afghanistan as well as members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Afghanis and Iranians wear red headbands or armbands, and Hezbollah fighters yellow ones.

                            U.S. officials have told VOA Russian commandos, or Spetsnaz, are also in the regime’s mix of forces and have been working covertly around Aleppo.


                            But Zakaria Malahefji, the political officer of the 3,000-strong Fastaqim Kama Umirt, a brigade aligned to the rebel alliance Jaish al-Mujahideen (Army of Holy Warriors), said they had not spotted Russians on the ground and few Syrian soldiers.

                            “You hardly see Syrian army troops fighting,” Malahefji said. “We are fighting Iranians, Afghans and Hezbollah.”

                            He was bitter about what he sees as a Western desertion of the Syrian revolution.

                            “I have spoken with the ambassadors and their staffs of the U.S., Britain and France and asked them, 'What will you do other than just make statements?’ ”

                            'We don't have weeks'

                            He said one message he got from a U.S. official read: “God willing, we are working on changing the conditions on the ground in the next few weeks.”

                            “But we don’t have weeks,” snapped Malahefji, a former higher education teacher. “We need portable anti-aircraft missiles if we are to persevere” he said. “And we need more anti-armor missile systems like anti-tank TOW missiles.”

                            In the complex and multisided conflict in northern Syria, all nongovernment players are jockeying to survive or to take advantage of the sudden dramatic shift of battlefield fortunes.

                            The position of the Kurdish YPG, or People’s Protection Units, which is dominated by Syria’s Democratic Union Party (PYD), appears the most tortuous. Rebel commanders accuse the YPG of being two-faced.

                            Around the mainly Kurdish enclave of Afrin, YPG fighters have started to coordinate with rebel factions to keep open a humanitarian corridor for displaced Syrians from northern towns and villages who are stuck on the Syrian-Turkish border near the Bab al-Salamah border crossing close to the Syrian town of Azaz.

                            No border crossings

                            Turkey, despite claiming it has an “open-border policy,” has not been allowing refugees to cross.

                            YPG and rebel factions have been protecting civilians as they travel from Azaz. But at the same time the YPG has launched attacks on Islamist and moderate rebel factions around Afrin, seeking to expand the Kurdish enclave.

                            Russian airstrikes on Saturday helped Kurdish fighters alongside militiamen from Jaysh al-Thwar, a YPG Sunni Arab ally, to capture the strategic Tal Zinkah hill north of Aleppo.

                            In this photo provided by Turkey's Islamic aid group of IHH, Syrians fleeing the conflicts in Azaz region, arrive in a truck at the Bab al-Salam border gate, Syria, Feb. 5, 2016.
                            In this photo provided by Turkey's Islamic aid group of IHH, Syrians fleeing the conflicts in Azaz region, arrive in a truck at the Bab al-Salam border gate, Syria, Feb. 5, 2016.

                            Syrian rebels argue the YPG, the most effective ground partner for the U.S.-led international coalition fighting Islamic State militants, is a secret partner of Assad and directly and indirectly coordinates with Damascus.

                            YPG commanders have always denied the claim.

                            In an exclusive phone interview with VOA, PYD leader Salih Muslim echoed Assad and Russian officials.

                            “The Russian airstrikes are targeting terrorists, Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra,” Muslim said. “The offensive won’t impact Syrian Kurds.”

                            Western analysts also warn the Assad offensive will weaken rebel moderate factions and force fighters to throw their lot in with the larger and more militant groups.

                            “The renewed pressure being placed upon the opposition also risks driving opposition groups to deepen their coordination with Syrian al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and other Salafi-jihadist factions,” cautioned Christopher Kozak, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
                            To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by troung View Post
                              Sir if that was our plan it would be fine, but it seems something like trying to overthrow Assad and replacing him with hipsters and hoping in vain that radical groups with far greater support in the capitals of our "allies" and with their bagmen don't take power; while wanting the Kurds to fight ISIS and hoping they don't try and hold "Arab" territory - all while half assing an air campaign against ISIS. Which has led to America training vetted TOW armed FSGs for the Islamic Front and JAN for use against Assad, and the western media bitching that Putin is killing AQ members or guys we would consider as bad as the Taliban.
                              The end result is that they're still killing each other with minimal investments from us. Bad plans but still with good results.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by troung View Post
                                Sir if that was our plan it would be fine, but it seems something like trying to overthrow Assad and replacing him with hipsters and hoping in vain that radical groups with far greater support in the capitals of our "allies" and with their bagmen don't take power; while wanting the Kurds to fight ISIS and hoping they don't try and hold "Arab" territory - all while half assing an air campaign against ISIS. Which has led to America training vetted TOW armed FSGs for the Islamic Front and JAN for use against Assad, and the western media bitching that Putin is killing AQ members or guys we would consider as bad as the Taliban.

                                Seems the YPG/PKK, in the form of the SDF, has wised up and is playing Obama off Putin and using the VKS to bomb the FSA/IF/JAN and the USAF to bomb ISIS. While turkey has closed its border to refugees (though not terrorists) to try and create a crisis.
                                A typical biased analysis from the fan boy of any and all despots and murderers. I am sorry to inform you that the troops now beseiging Aleppo are either Iranian or in Iranian pay (Hezbollah) or Russian or in Muscovite pay, the air bomardment is almost exclusively the action of the Putin regimes forces, which last month carried out over 500 sorties exclusively in the North West of Syria where Daesh has no presence whatsoever. There has been for some time credible evidence - even in open source media - that the Putin regime has been involved not only with AQ but with Daesh. Remember Ayman Al Zawahari, OBL's right hand man? Where do you think he came from? He was caught by the Russians in 1996, trained by the FSB and then released to collect supporters in Dagestan, Litvinenko reported this and said he was involved in part. Other credible sources confirmed this; look it up! It's not new or classified. There are over 2000 Russian citizens currently believed to fighting with Daesh and the link goes directly through Kadyrov, the current cowboy of Chechnya tin pot dictator who thinks nothing of publicly threatening Russian opposition leaders on his Instagram account,

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                                The people in the video (now removed) are in the crosshairs of a sight (actually not a sniper rifle sights I am told but a periscope one so in other words a mock up), these Gentlemen are Mikhail Kasyanov, the leader of Parnas Opposition Party after Nemtsov's assassination and Vladimir Kara-Murza, who is associated with Khordovsky's Open Russia Foundation and who survived an attempted poisoning last year. The words below Kadyrov's video accused them of being "enemies" and "traitors". In others words they are watched and on a list. Kadyrov and the FSB have been feeding nut cases to Daesh for some time - even this is public information;

                                “I know someone who has been at war for 15 years,” Akhyad Abdullaev, head of the village, tells Milashina. “He fought in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now in Syria. He surely cannot live peacefully. If such people go off to war, it’s no loss. In our village there is a person, a negotiator. He, together with the FSB, brought several leaders out of the underground and sent them off abroad on jihad. The underground resistance has been weakened, we’re well off. They want to fight—let them fight, just not here.”

                                see the Novaya Gazeta reported in English here; http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...c-terror0.html

                                What of the case of Magomed Khasiev, the 23yr FSB informant working with Daesh who was discovered and executed? What of "Yevgeniy" in this article? http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-...-supports-isis "Why are Russian Engineers working at an Islamic State Controlled plant in Syria?"; http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/09/...lant-in-syria/

                                These are just open source reports and the whole Syrian mess is not on my problem list thankfully I know from experience that what has surfaced publicly is but the tip of an iceberg compared to what is known.

                                There is real danger of East - West war here, probably greater than any time since the Berlin Wall fell; I am told Medvedev (Putin's poodle PM) said the same yesterday. The Russian 'snap exercises' in the Rostov region - including the Black Sea and Caspian Sea naval forces - combined with the envelopment and bombing of Aleppo (some 50km/30m from the Turkish border) pose a threat to Turkey and to the region. The Turks, I am told, were in favour of going in (I do not know if this is true) and already have over 2m refugees and another increasing load of 40,000+ on the border fleeing from Aleppo. Their Turkmen cousins face oblivion and Aleppo would be a seige akin to Stalingrad scale rather than Debaltseve. You expect them to stand by? I should remind you that before the Turks shot down the Russian Su - 24 a while ago the Russian Ambassador in Ankara was summoned three times within two weeks and told that this targetting of Turkmen in Northern Latakia was unacceptable. If Aleppo falls it is effectively a decisive defeat to the non Daesh Opposition to the criminal Assad regime and the 'West' must effective cede Russian and Iran dominance in what would become the 'Shi'ite Crescent' from the border of Pakistan to Lebanon. Many do not believe that this would be the end of their ambitions and I am forced to agree. If the Turks do or do not "go in" to relieve Aleppo the allegation will be made and used as an excuse for further actions in other theatres, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, mining the Arabian Gulf and declaring "Closed to traffic" perhaps by Iran and perhaps a push toward the Dnieper in Ukraine.

                                I have read that a "ceasefire" agreement was agreed regarding the Syrian mess yesterday. I have seen what Putin's "ceasefires" look like for myself and have absolutely no faith in an Putin regime signed document; I am told that Assad has (quite predictably) already declared his intention to "take back all of Syria" which will inevitably make any "ceasefire" worthless but no doubt Putin will be asked to put pressure on him - Putin is after all on our side... This is BS of course and you cannot trust a damn word they say or any agreement they sign. If they were reliable signatories the Budapest Memorandum, the Helsinki Final Accords, the UN Founding Charter, the Geneva Conventions and Minsk 1 and 2 were insufficient to hold them to their word. Getting a signature on a piece of paper was found not be "Peace in our time" in 1939 and we have followed the same path from the whole BS 'reset' after the Georgian war to Obama's inadvisable "red line" and subsequent inexcusable back down in Syria. The Obama administrations conduct of foreign policy has been delinquently juvenile from the start and I know it is not that they lacking good advice. The results are perhaps 500 - 600,000 dead in conflict from Afghanistan to Yemen, Libya, Ukraine, Iraq and Syria and 7-8m refugees or 'IDPs' and today we stand closer to a large scale conflict than any time since the early 1990s. Someone should inscribe "Reset" on his grave stone when he dies.

                                However this ends up in the long run I hope the world learns that NOT acting is sometimes more dangerous than acting. "Si vis pacem, para bellum" and "Sic semper tyrannis" must be bywords that all those who wish to remain free remember.
                                Last edited by snapper; 12 Feb 16,, 19:09.

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