Syrian Civil War Developments

[citanon]

Because PoG in control of all of Lebanon is good for Israel's security. PoG has proven to be following a very traditional path from radicalism to realpolitik in the areas they effectively rule. There is no reason to assume this would change. Furthermore with Shia, Duze and Maronite communities pushing back it would be a full time job just remaining in control.

If I were Israel I'd rather face a disorganized political entity rather than an organized, competent and ruthless adversary on my immediate border. Is there any indication that Hezbollah's willingness to act as an Iranian proxy has changed in the past six years or that their adversarial relationship against Israel has changed? Would Israel tolerate a Hezbollah in full control of Lebanon, client to Iran, and possibly armed with increasingly capable short range ballistic missiles? Or, would Israel seize the present opportunity to collapse Iran's strategic reach into its nearby borders?

[JAD_333]

Latest defections:

16:22 BST Syrian chargé d
Summary

-- The Syrian chargé d’affaires in London has resigned saying he is no longer willing to represent a "violent and oppressive" regime. Khaled al-Ayoubi was the most senior Syrian diplomat serving in London. His departure was announced by the UK Foreign Office, which described it as "another blow to the Assad regime". It urged others to follow his example.

-- A Syrian brigadier general who was deputy chief of police in Syria's Latakia region, has defected to Turkey. The official says the general was among a group of 12 Syrian officers who crossed into Turkey late Sunday. The brigadier general's defection raises the number of generals to have defected and crossed into Turkey since the start of the 17-month-old uprising to 28, according to AP. Latakia is the de facto capital of the Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast,

Syria seems to have an inexhaustible supply of generals. Could this latest batch of deserting officers be Alawites?

[Parihaka]

Well this makes things interesting

(Reuters) - Rebels fighting to depose Syrian president Bashar al Assad have for the first time acquired a small supply of surface-to-air missiles, according to a news report that a Western official did not dispute.

NBC News reported Tuesday night that the rebel Free Syrian Army had obtained nearly two dozen of the weapons, which were delivered to them via neighboring Turkey, whose moderate Islamist government has been demanding Assad's departure with increasing vehemence.

Indications are that the U.S. government, which has said it opposes arming the rebels, is not responsible for the delivery of the missiles.

But some U.S. government sources have been saying for weeks that Arab governments seeking to oust Assad, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been pressing for such missiles, also known as MANPADs, for man-portable air-defense systems, to be supplied to the rebels.

In recent days, air operations against the rebels by Syrian government forces appear to have been stepped up, particularly around the contested city of Aleppo, making the rebels' need for MANPADs more urgent.

Precisely what kind of MANPADs have been delivered to Syrian rebels is unclear and NBC News did not provide details. Such weapons range from the primitive to highly sophisticated.

And even if the rebels do have the weapons, it is unclear whether they have the training to operate them effectively against Assad's air forces in the immediate future.

Some conservative U.S. lawmakers, such as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, have criticized the administration of President Barack Obama for moving too slowly to assist the rebels and have suggested the U.S. government become directly involved in arming Assad's opponents.

The White House, at least until now, has taken a considerably more cautious approach.

As of last month, U.S. officials warned that if any Middle Eastern nation was "even considering giving arms to the Syrian opposition," it ought to "take a measured approach and think twice about providing arms that could have unintended consequences."

Nonetheless, even at that time, U.S. and allied officials acknowledged that officials of Saudi Arabia and Qatar were discussing whether surface-to-air missiles might help Syrian rebels bring down Russian-made helicopters and other aircraft the Syrian army was using to move troops between trouble spots.

Following the fall of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, some intelligence experts estimated that as many as 10,000-15,000 MANPADs sets were looted from Libyan government stockpiles. The whereabouts of most of these are unknown.

Many U.S. officials have been wary of the notion of arming Syrian rebels with MANPADs, noting that they could be easily turned on targets other than the Syrian government, including civilian airliners.

After the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the CIA, with Saudi backing, provided sophisticated shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to Islamic militants seeking to oust Soviet troops.

The missiles proved deadly against Soviet helicopter gunships, but subsequently became a major headache for U.S. and western counter-terrorism agencies when anti-Soviet militants morphed into anti-Western militants.

Recent intelligence and news reporting has suggested a growing number of militants, including some affiliated with al Qaeda, have traveled to Syria to try to join anti-Assad forces. U.S. officials have said, however, that they do not believe the militants yet play a dominant role in the Syrian opposition.

[Officer of Engineers]

Too tired to provide links

Turkey threatened intervention to prevent massacres.
Iran threatened war against Turkish intervention.
Rebels are holding and expanding their hold in Aleppo, including taking two platoon size garrisons/police stations.
Both sides have suffered heavy casualties including technicals and armour
Al Qaeda has been instrumental in turning the rebels around. IEDs have replaced direct assaults.

[citanon]

Too tired to provide links

Turkey threatened intervention to prevent massacres.
Iran threatened war against Turkish intervention.
Rebels are holding and expanding their hold in Aleppo, including taking two platoon size garrisons/police stations.
Both sides have suffered heavy casualties including technicals and armour
Al Qaeda has been instrumental in turning the rebels around. IEDs have replaced direct assaults.

Col: what's going to happen to the chemical weapons in the end game? Or can you not discuss that?

[Officer of Engineers]

They're currently under effective protection and control by the Assad regime. I don't expect a problem with the units protecting them. If Assad can give the order for effective transfer to the proper authorities, then the transfer can take place. I don't expect the rebels would try taking them.

[lemontree]

Too tired to provide links

Turkey threatened intervention to prevent massacres.
Iran threatened war against Turkish intervention.

Sir, will Iran risk going to war with Turkey?
Turkey being a NATO member, will invite the direct intervention of NATO.

IMHO, the Iranians are bluffing.

[chanjyj]

Sir, will Iran risk going to war with Turkey?
Turkey being a NATO member, will invite the direct intervention of NATO.

IMHO, the Iranians are bluffing.

Do you think NATO will intervene? Nevermind. Rhetorical question.

[Officer of Engineers]

IMHO, the Iranians are bluffing.

Turkey can take on Iran blindfolded. It is the 2nd largest military in NATO.

[JAD_333]

Turkey can take on Iran blindfolded. It is the 2nd largest military in NATO.

And NATO would just love to come to Turkey's aid.

[Officer of Engineers]

Syrian ally Iran has warned Turkey of harsh response to potential strikes: report

By AFP
DAMASCUS

Syrian ally Iran has warned their common neighbor Turkey that it will meet a harsh response should Ankara carry out any strikes inside Syrian territory, a pro-Damascus daily reported on Monday.

“Any attack on Syrian territory will meet with a harsh response, and the Iranian-Syrian mutual defense agreement will be activated,” the Al-Watan newspaper said.

“Turkey has received very strong warnings in the past few hours and the following message -- beware changing the rules of the game,” the paper added.

Iran is the closest regional ally of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but has also striven to keep good relations with Turkey even as the standoff over its controversial nuclear program has deepened with other NATO member states.

Tehran has enjoyed close ties with Damascus since 1980 when the Syrian government took its side in its devastating eight-year war with now executed dictator Saddam Hussein's regime in Baghdad, and has signed a series of defence pacts, including in 2006 and 2008.

But Ankara has been a leading champion of the more than 16-month uprising against the Assad regime and has given refuge to large numbers of army defectors, who have formed the kernel of a rebel army, as well as tens of thousands of civilian refugees.

Al-Watan cited an “Arab diplomat” as accusing Turkey of seeking to use its fears about the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which already enjoys rear-bases in the far north of Iraq, as a pretext to intervene in Syria.

“Ankara is preparing an agreement with Washington to intervene militarily in the Syrian (crisis), using the Kurdish card as an excuse,” the paper said.

“Turkey has agreed with the United States on a military intervention limited to the north of Syria, specifically the northern province of Aleppo, to pave the way for the creation of a safe haven guarded by the armed gangs.”

Turkish newspapers have reported that some Kurdish-majority regions of northern Syria have been flying the flag of Syria's PKK ally, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), in what they have said is a deal with the Assad family's government, which was a longtime backer of the Kurdish rebel group's insurgency in Turkey.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that it is a “given” that Turkish troops would pursue fleeing PKK militants inside Syria, warning that Ankara would not hesitate to strike “terrorists.”

Turkey has sent a convoy of tanks, ground-to-air missile batteries and other weapons to the border with Syria to further bolster its forces, the Anatolia news agency reported on Monday.

Turkey has repeatedly carried out air and ground operations against suspected PKK rear-bases in northern Iraq. Iran has also done so against suspected hideouts in the same area of PKK ally the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK).

[citanon]

They're currently under effective protection and control by the Assad regime. I don't expect a problem with the units protecting them. If Assad can give the order for effective transfer to the proper authorities, then the transfer can take place. I don't expect the rebels would try taking them.

What about regime elements linked with Iran or Hezbollah?

[Officer of Engineers]

I can't see it. These units would be 200% loyal to Assad himself. Otherwise, the threat of his own generals turning these weapons against him would be intolerable, as is now the case of his own generals raising armies against him.

[cyppok]

Turkish army requests Syrian weather forecast to direct artillery | StratRisks
POLITICS - Turkish army requests Syrian weather forecast to direct artillery

Turkish army requests Syrian weather forecast to direct artillery

The Turkish Armed Forces have asked for detailed weather forecasts in Syria in order to more accurately direct artillery strikes, daily Hürriyet reported on its website today.

“We won’t allow a terrorist organization to become an element of threat against our country. We won’t allow a terrorist organization to [set up] bases in northern Syria,” Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said July 26, after numerous Kurdish cities in northern Syria declared autonomy and solidarity between the PKK and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in northern Syria became a possibility.
July/30/2012

Once Turkey intervenes in one area the intervention in another will seem secondary. At that point it will be fighting in another country's civil war. These thing usually don't work out well.

Erdo
25 July 2012 / TODAYSZAMAN.COM,
The Turkish prime minister has warned that Turkey won't hesitate to retaliate militarily to any threat emanating from Syria's north as he stated that Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad is abandoning territories close to the Turkish border to Kurdish groups said to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

I'm not doubting the 'success' of Turkish intervention the ramifications and what happens after will be more important. Notice the alignment of Iran against intervention while not so long ago they had a joint military campaign to drive the PKK out.

Iran Warns Turkey Against Military Intervention in Syria:
By AFP

July 31, 2012 "Al Arabiya" -- Syrian ally Iran has warned their common neighbor Turkey that it will meet a harsh response should Ankara carry out any strikes inside Syrian territory, a pro-Damascus daily reported on Monday.

“Any attack on Syrian territory will meet with a harsh response, and the Iranian-Syrian mutual defense agreement will be activated,” the Al-Watan newspaper said.

“Turkey has received very strong warnings in the past few hours and the following message -- beware changing the rules of the game,” the paper added.

Iran is the closest regional ally of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but has also striven to keep good relations with Turkey even as the standoff over its controversial nuclear program has deepened with other NATO member states.

[Dante]

In the meantime:

Video Said to Show Execution by Syrian Rebels Stirs Debate

Video Said to Show Execution by Syrian Rebels Stirs Debate - NYTimes.com

Zeino al-Barri, a politician from a Sunni clan loyal to Syria's President, is killed publicly in Aleppo.