Syrian Civil War Developments

[Officer of Engineers]

Dictatorship 101. You don't leave room for opposition.

[Bigfella]

Yes it does.
Option 1: There's no possibility of a pro-western govt. being installed but a very real possibility of a pro-Turkey govt, with Lebanon following suit. This means Hezbollah looses its resupply which in turn means the ultra-right-wing parties in Israel loose much of their ability to keep the Israeli population in a constant state of fear. With more moderate parties in Israeli politics there's more likely hood of a resolution for the West Bank and Gaza, with obvious geopolitical benefits.

Now THAT is optimism. Given how hard the Israeli right has been working on making Turkey look like Iran I'm not sure how long it will take for there to be any impact. If worst comes to worst Likud will just prod & poke the appropriate Palestinean/lebanese faction until it gets the reaction it wants. You may be right, but not anytime soon.

[Bigfella]

My question is does the Syrian army dare to spread out across the country again in force or are they now committed to only Damascus, Homs and the road to Tartus?

The rebels are using a favourite tactic of forces with some numbers & ability to strike widely, but little ability to bring battle - stretch your enemy. The Viet Minh were particularly good at this, forcing the French to throw troops left, right & centre. At a distance it looks like Assad has fewer & fewer loyal troops to play with. It is possible that he is indeed going to cede control of parts of the country in order to protect the bits he thinks he can hold. Bye bye rule by fear. The beginning of the end. This is one of the risks of using high levels of force against civilians - not everyone in your army is prepared to do it. Worse, once you start losing senior figures & then control of major cities you lose one of the few things you have to offer - protection. The rebels can't win a toe to toe fight, but they can rob the regime of control of parts of the country. If one of those parts is Damascus then Assad loses not only the symbol of the nation & its largest population centre, he also loses its major financial centre.That means he loses the ability to pay those who aren't loyal out of ethno-religious reasons or fear of the alternative. Putin better have deep pockets, he's going to need them if that fleet is anything but an exercise in evacuating the freindlies.

Could this all turn around? yes, but it is not going to be easy. Might even need outside forces to help him. The military is still powerful, but it can only concentrate that power in a few places at a time. If the rebels aren't dumb enough to all gather in the same place for convenience that alone won't win it for him (they may be that dumb, however). My bet is that if he could have fixed it it would be fixed by now.

[cyppok]

Syria and Middle East Security - C-SPAN Video Library
Video with Landis speaking on Syria.

Syria Comment

It seems the rebels lost Damasqus for now, from the newsflow at least.

Btw. I actually think redrawing of the map from Pakistan through Syria along ethnic lines will make something closer to post WW2 peace division in the Mid-East.

[Parihaka]

Now THAT is optimism. Given how hard the Israeli right has been working on making Turkey look like Iran I'm not sure how long it will take for there to be any impact. If worst comes to worst Likud will just prod & poke the appropriate Palestinean/lebanese faction until it gets the reaction it wants. You may be right, but not anytime soon.

Turkey has proven itself to be a rational player, despite/because of Erdogan. (my apologies to our Turks: I have a poor opinion of the man, but not of the country) If they can help stabilize Syria and by extension the Lebanon, Likud becomes a greater embarrassment to the Israeli centre.

As for my optimism....

Philip Henslowe: Mr. Fennyman, allow me to explain about the theatre business. The natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster.
Hugh Fennyman: So what do we do?
Philip Henslowe: Nothing. Strangely enough, it all turns out well.
Hugh Fennyman: How?
Philip Henslowe: I don't know. It's a mystery

:)

[Parihaka]

If the rebels aren't dumb enough to all gather in the same place for convenience that alone won't win it for him (they may be that dumb, however). My bet is that if he could have fixed it it would be fixed by now.

Much less reported at the moment amongst the chattering classes is the fighting going on in Aleppo. The rebels are indeed not concentrating.

[Parihaka]

Dictatorship 101. You don't leave room for opposition.

So they have to try to do both?

[Officer of Engineers]

So they have to try to do both?

He's more likely to raise more local militia (ie warlords) to control the vast majority of his territory while his main army go rebel hunting. The downside to this is that warlords have a habit of switching sides on a dime.

[Bigfella]

Turkey has proven itself to be a rational player, despite/because of Erdogan. (my apologies to our Turks: I have a poor opinion of the man, but not of the country) If they can help stabilize Syria and by extension the Lebanon, Likud becomes a greater embarrassment to the Israeli centre.

As for my optimism....

:)

Erdogan isn't my type of politician (to be honest, neither are the secualr opposition in Turkey - my kind of poiliticians don't play footsies with would be coup makers) but he is a rational player. I found it fascinating that while he was becoming 'baddie of the week' among right wing Israelis & their friends he was also torpedoing relations wiht Iran by hosting elements of the NATO missile shield. he has also undertaken the sort of market-driven reforms that would usually have western conservatives falling over themselves to praise him if he was a committed secularist (or friendly dictator). I also seem to recall some attempts to deal more or less ensibly wiht the issues of Armenia & the Kurds, thought I'm not sure if that ever came to much.

The irony in all of this is that Erdogan may actually be the perfect guy for this moment & the best thing for western interests. As an islamist and a democrat he is in a unique position in a region where Islamist movements are suddenly finding themselves in or near power. A decade ago they would have been a lot more vulnerable to the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iran or even AQ (which isn't to say they aren't at all, but it is a matter of degree). Instead you now have the successful leader of a regional power who is able to speak their language and tell tham tha tdictatorship is not the only path. Can you imagine a secular Turkish leader having the ear of such folk to anywhere near the same extent? It remains to be seen how succesful this influence is & what he does with it, but things could be a great deal worse.

I agree that the spread of Turkish influence in the region is ultimately a good thing given the alternatives. I'm not as confident that support for Likudnik ideas will decline anywhere near as rapidly. Happy to be wrong.

[Bigfella]

Much less reported at the moment amongst the chattering classes is the fighting going on in Aleppo. The rebels are indeed not concentrating.

More bad news for Assad. There's blood in the water.

[cyppok]

Syria Comment

The Kurdish Flag Flies over Parts of Syria as Aleppo Ignites
Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

Many Kurdish towns in the Northeast of Syria are now flying the Kurdish flag as Syrian troops have withdrawn from the region to fight back the offensives in Syria’s two largest cities.

Rudaw in English....The Happening: Latest News and Multimedia about Kurdistan, Iraq and the World

25/07/2012 06:05:00 By HEVIDAR AHMED

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Syrian governmental forces have retreated from the Kurdish regions of Syria without a fight; the liberated cities are now being ruled evenly by the People’s Council of Syrian Kurdistan (PYD) and the Kurdish National Council (KNC).

According to the information obtained by Rudaw, the Kurdish cities of Kobane, Derek, Amoude, Efrin and Sari Kani have fallen under the control of Syrian Kurdish forces.

The city of Kobane was the first Kurdish city to be liberated last Thursday, 17 months after the revolution against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began.

The KNC and PYD agreed to jointly control the liberated Kurdish cities in a deal made in Erbil on July 11, under the supervision of Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani.

“According to the treaty of Erbil which was signed by the KNC and PYD, any administrative vacuum in the Kurdish cities of Syria will be occupied evenly — 50/50 — by these two signatories. These two groups will continue ruling the Kurdish regions until an election is carried out,” said Nuri Brimo, a spokesperson of the Democratic Kurdish Party of Syria

You know my thoughts on these things. Sooner or later de-facto control becomes de-jure even for 1 nation, ergo if Iraqi Kurdistan goes independent and Syrian Kurdistan proclaims itself as well they effectively become one country as long as both want it...

The interesting thing to come is the Turkish reaction.

[TTL]

POLITICS - Turkey to take action against PKK in Syria

“The activities of the separatist terrorist organization in our country and in neighboring countries have been discussed. Additional measures to be taken in every field concerning our national security were also discussed at the meeting, which reviewed work being carried out in the fight against terrorism,” read a short statement released after the nearly two-hour long meeting.

Yesterday at a radio interview Erdoğan vowed Turkey will intervene if PKK gets control of Northern Syria. In his usual style he used big words.

You know my thoughts on these things. Sooner or later de-facto control becomes de-jure even for 1 nation, ergo if Iraqi Kurdistan goes independent and Syrian Kurdistan proclaims itself as well they effectively become one country as long as both want it...

A Turkish reporter who was in Qamisli (syria) claimed the Kurds there actually said if KRG tries to intervene in Syria they would resist with force. PYD is said to be allied with PKK and there is no love lost between them and Barzani.

[cyppok]

POLITICS - Turkey to take action against PKK in Syria



Yesterday at a radio interview Erdoğan vowed Turkey will intervene if PKK gets control of Northern Syria. In his usual style he used big words.



A Turkish reporter who was in Qamisli (syria) claimed the Kurds there actually said if KRG tries to intervene in Syria they would resist with force. PYD is said to be allied with PKK and there is no love lost between them and Barzani.

The risk for Turkey in my mind is this. If they intervene in the Kurdish areas they would be very tempted to intervene in Arab areas as well. Mind as well right? the problem is that internal divisions in Syria will eventually paint it as an ethnic intervention. "Ottomanization" if you will and imposition of will on the future direction, which it will be in a sense. What could happen if the stay is a bit 'longer' than expected is a shift in Arab politics to fund ethnic nationalists. Short and long term this could create a far larger problem than non-intervention.

Basically imagine continuous ethnic nationalists and religious nationalists funding groups for the 'retaking' of Hatay/Alexandretta etc... and outright funding for the Kurds, with declarations of join enmity against Turkey. Not a pretty picture I painted isn't it.

I thought that Barzani was the arbiter between two groups according to the story.

[JAD_333]

BBC News - Syria conflict: Troops 'mass before Aleppo battle'

Aleppo is Syria's largest city and is situated in northwest Syria near the Turkish border. The army is determined to regain control of the city, while the rebels appear ready to make a stand in the city. How is this going to turn out? My feeling is the rebels are better off using their limited resources to control the countryside and small towns. The army cannot protect everything. As Frederick the Great said, if you try to defend everything, you can defend nothing. What say you military experts?

[JAD_333]

Does anyone concur?

BBC News - Syria: Aleppo is nail in Assad's coffin, says Panetta

US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta says Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's assault on the city of Aleppo will be "a nail in his coffin".

Mr Panetta was speaking at the start of a five-day Middle East tour.

Heavy fighting is continuing in Syria's largest city where government forces are trying to oust rebel fighters.

UN humanitarian chief Valerie Amos said 200,000 people had fled the fighting in Aleppo and that an unknown number were trapped.

She said that the city urgently needed supplies including food and water.

Mr Panetta said the Syrian crisis was deepening and that President Assad was hastening his own demise.

"If they continue this kind of tragic attack on their own people... I think it ultimately will be a nail in Assad's coffin," he told reporters.

"What Assad has been doing to his own people and what he continues to do to his own people makes clear that his regime is coming to an end. It's lost all legitimacy."

He added: "It's no longer a question of whether he's coming to an end, it's when."

A hole-in-the-wall bakery had just reopened its doors after being closed for more than a day. Most food shops in the turbulent districts are now closed.

Rebel fighters tried to marshal the crowds as hundreds of hungry and increasingly desperate residents clamoured for the thin round loaves.

Suriya had finally reached the front of the queue and the middle-aged mother thrust her hand through the railings outside the bakery, grasping for the bread. Like many poor Syrians she has a large family to feed and with no fresh fruit or vegetables available this is her only chance to get food.

"A lot of poor people are suffering from a lack of food and water," she complained. "Many are going to bed hungry."

Their suffering does not seem likely to end soon. Food, water and power shortages have made life hard for residents. The ever-present danger from bombs and bullets is making it intolerable.

Fear and hunger in Aleppo

Mr Panetta's tour will include talks in Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Jordan.

He said he aimed to reinforce an international consensus that Mr Assad must step down and allow a peaceful transition to democracy.

The defence secretary said he would also continue efforts to ensure that Syria's stockpiles of chemical weapons did not fall into the wrong hands.

Baroness Amos, speaking in New York, said that the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent estimated that 200,000 people have fled Aleppo and surrounding areas in the past two days.

"It is not known how many people remain trapped in places where fighting continues today," she said.

"I call on all parties to the fighting to ensure that they do not target civilians and that they allow humanitarian organisations safe access."

UK-based activist group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights described the situation in Aleppo as "a full-scale street war".

The BBC's Ian Pannell, who was in Aleppo on Saturday, said government troops were trying to push into rebel-held neighbourhoods and there was fierce fighting.

Civilians are facing power cuts and food shortages, he says.

Late on Sunday, Syrian troops said they had recaptured the south-west district of Salah al-Din from the rebels.

"Complete control of Salah al-Din has been (won back) from those mercenary gunmen," a military officer told Syrian state TV.

"In a few days safety and security will return to the city of Aleppo."

Despite the army's statement, activists said fighting was continuing in Salah al-Din on Sunday night.

Aleppo activist Abo Aref al-Halabi told the BBC's Newsday programme on Monday that it had been a "terrible night" in the city.

"Nobody can sleep. Everywhere you can hear [the sound of] bombs," he said.

"The Assad armies are using mortars, they are using tanks, bombs, they are using helicopters, missiles coming from helicopters, to the Salah al-Din area."

He said some buildings were on fire and others had collapsed.
Battle-hardened

Our correspondent says that although the rebels are outgunned, they are fighting an effective guerrilla war in the streets of the city.

Many are more battle-hardened than their adversaries and they are making their own improvised explosive devices, he adds.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem, on a visit to Iran, said that the government was winning its war against the rebels.

"Today I tell you, Syria is stronger," he said.

"In less than a week they were defeated (in Damascus) and the battle failed. So they moved on to Aleppo and I assure you, their plots will fail."