Syrian Civil War Developments

[snapper]

Of course what Mr Gerkin neglects to say is that takes two side to "compete" and he represents one side.

[Mihais]

JAD,I wouldn't boast that too much.I'd rather wait another decade or two before talking about the positive or negative consequences of the Iraq invasion and the current events.

[JAD_333]

JAD,I wouldn't boast that too much.I'd rather wait another decade or two before talking about the positive or negative consequences of the Iraq invasion and the current events.

Couldn't agree with you more. Not boasting at all. Just mentioning the fact that Iraq defenders use the argument. Of course, one doesn't have to agree with the Iraq invasion to conclude that it was a game changer in that way. But as you say, time will tell.

[JAD_333]

Of course what Mr Gerkin neglects to say is that takes two side to "compete" and he represents one side.

Boiling down what he said to its essential truth, that there is always a motive behind every political action and every action has two sides, one could ask, what's his beef? Is he saying he's likely on the losing side? Point well taken.

[Doktor]

Losing side you say?

How long this FSA can hold a position? Now they are expelled from Damascus. Speaking of PR, this is bad for them.

[Mihais]

Dok,PR is really a small part of warfare.Events there are fluid and nobody,not even those who inspired and supported this rebellion can claim any control over the situation.The degree of support the rebels have is debatable,speaking of PR.We have towns and neighborhoods organising militias to defend against the ''rebels'' even in the Sunni areas,to give a hint about the chaotic conditions on the ground.Rebels being ejected out of Damascus,for real or just in propaganda is simply not of any consequence at this point.what is needed,ast the Colonel said,is for the army to fix and kill a lot of them.Otherwise,a couple of bandits being chased by the police cand be seen as rebels being thrown out of Damascus,or if the reverse happens,the ''freedom fighters'' can score another ''major victory''.

[Doktor]

Mihais,

Bringing the fight into Damascus was a huge PR victory for the FSA (or whatever they call themselves). For sure such events bolster it's members and those who are thinking if to join them. But, tell me, what position they held for more then 36 hours? If they did, I am not aware of such.

I don't deny that the army should inflict a major blow to the opposition if they want to end this, but they fail to.

By AP reports over 300 people are dead in Damascus. It is not much, but it is hardly a bunch.

[JAD_333]

Syria crisis: Thousands of refugees flee violence


BBC News - Syria crisis: Thousands of refugees flee violence

State media announced on Friday that Midan had been "cleaned" of "terrorists". Rebels said they had withdrawn from the area after coming under bombardment.20 July 2012 Last updated at 12:34 ET

[Officer of Engineers]

Losing side you say?

How long this FSA can hold a position? Now they are expelled from Damascus. Speaking of PR, this is bad for them.

Bad PR? They knocked out Assad's NSC. That is both a propaganda and a military victory.

[Parihaka]

"...it's working out unexpectedly and awkwardly for his country."

"...awkwardly..."?

As in-"The Russian Ambassador's residence to the new government of Syria shall be provided with our finest donkeys for transportation and a very accomodating two-man puptent."

I sometimes think You'd have made a rather good old-style diplomat ;)
I certainly would have sent the departing ambassador a case of finest champagne to accompany him on his journey.

Still, best not count chickens: while Russia's little fleet seems best suited for evacuating sensitive material I have no doubt it could cause much disturbance purely from pique. Also said rebels have to not only get their shit together and succeed but also decide they're going to be different from the country's last set of thugs.

[snapper]

I sometimes think You'd have made a rather good old-style diplomat ;)
I certainly would have sent the departing ambassador a case of finest champagne to accompany him on his journey.

Excellent idea! I am working on it.

Also said rebels have to not only get their shit together and succeed but also decide they're going to be different from the country's last set of thugs.

Does it matter so long as they are anti Iran for now?

[Doktor]

Bad PR? They knocked out Assad's NSC. That is both a propaganda and a military victory.

Not denying that the killing of top defense/intel officers is sure good for their morale and PR.

I was referring to start the initiative over Damascus just to be repelled mere 24h later.

Smells like a stalemate to me, but we will see.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well, it certainly is a bold plan but poorly executed

How "Damascus Volcano" erupted in Assad's stronghold - Reuters

[Parihaka]

Does it matter so long as they are anti Iran for now?

Yes it does.
Option 1: There's no possibility of a pro-western govt. being installed but a very real possibility of a pro-Turkey govt, with Lebanon following suit. This means Hezbollah looses its resupply which in turn means the ultra-right-wing parties in Israel loose much of their ability to keep the Israeli population in a constant state of fear. With more moderate parties in Israeli politics there's more likely hood of a resolution for the West Bank and Gaza, with obvious geopolitical benefits.

Option 2: If it is simply a bunch of thugs who gain power, they will naturally gravitate toward those most likely to support thuggery, namely Russia.
Fortunately Russia is doing everything they can to piss the rebels off, so that possibility is looking less likely with every passing day.

If parihaka's happy place (option 1) is achieved, Iran is isolated except to Russia which in itself is further isolated. The west I'm sure will be quite happy to play economic blockade at that point and let the buggers stew in their own juice, whilst quietly trying to normalise relations between Turkey and Armenia (trade between the two would be a rockingly good start), and let the genocide/no genocide crew yell at each other without it becoming a matter of national importance.
Maybe in a couple of hundred years they can come to an accommodation, in the mean time increased prosperity and stability for all, a cell phone in every pocket and a lamb in every tandoor.

It's a long game and the last 300 years are just the opening gambits.

[Parihaka]

Well, it certainly is a bold plan but poorly executed

How "Damascus Volcano" erupted in Assad's stronghold - Reuters

My question is does the Syrian army dare to spread out across the country again in force or are they now committed to only Damascus, Homs and the road to Tartus?