Syrian Civil War Developments

[Officer of Engineers]

Since the fighting has started in the capital city, Damascus, then Assads regime has little time left.
He is only fighting a delaying battle as, one by one his senior commanders defect over to the rebels.

The Syrian Army can still win Damascus. The Rebels lacked the numbers to seriously erode the Army's staying power. That being said, battle momentum is clearly on the Rebel's side. The Army needs to retreat, regroup, re-evaluate, and then to re-commit. I'm not seeing any of that.

[JAD_333]

The Syrian Army can still win Damascus. The Rebels lacked the numbers to seriously erode the Army's staying power. That being said, battle momentum is clearly on the Rebel's side. The Army needs to retreat, regroup, re-evaluate, and then to re-commit. I'm not seeing any of that.

I agree with your first point. A lot of the direction of the fighting is being set by the media and wishful thinkers.

But I question the tactics you propose, not from a military POV but from a perception POV. If the Syrian army retreats and the media trumpets it, would that not give the appearance the army is collapsing? And if the media were to trumpet the news, wouldn't it embolden more fighters to join the fight thinking victory is at hand, thus making it harder for the army once it resumes operations? Also, wouldn't a pause give the rebels a chance to do a little regrouping themselves?

[Officer of Engineers]

But I question the tactics you propose, not from a military POV but from a perception POV.

The Army lost the propaganda victory the minute combat initiated in Damascus. There is no denying that the centre of Syrian political and military power has been penetrated, threatened, and hurt and hurt bad.

If the Syrian army retreats and the media trumpets it, would that not give the appearance the army is collapsing?

Good. That masks the army's movements.

And if the media were to trumpet the news, wouldn't it embolden more fighters to join the fight thinking victory is at hand, thus making it harder for the army once it resumes operations? Also, wouldn't a pause give the rebels a chance to do a little regrouping themselves?

If I was the Syrian General, that would be exactly what I want. Make it a battle of annihilation that the rebels are nowhere near capable of winning.

[Mihais]

Sir,Arab generals worth the stars on their epaulettes can be counted on the fingers of one hand in the last half a century.

[Parihaka]

Word from the Israelis is that only a token Syrian force remains on their border. As a consequence they're seeing and increase in violence in places like Jbatha Al-khashab. Seems like they are rushing to concentrate forces in Damascus and Homs and abandoning the rest of the country.

[JAD_333]

The Army lost the propaganda victory the minute combat initiated in Damascus. There is no denying that the centre of Syrian political and military power has been penetrated, threatened, and hurt and hurt bad.

I didn't have propaganda in mind when I mentioned media driven perception, but now that you mention it, Assad has done a lot of bragging that he would destroy the opposition, and the fact that the army hasn't delivered, is a perception disadvantage.

Good. That masks the army's movements.

The military POV interests me. Are you thinking in terms of urban warfare or do you perceive that the army is simply too scattered and uncoordinated to be effective at this point?

I also wonder about the use of heavy weapons in the city and the possibility Assad would alienate his Damascus supporters. Is there a less heavy-handed, but effective way to deal with the rebels in an urban setting?

If I was the Syrian General, that would be exactly what I want. Make it a battle of annihilation that the rebels are nowhere near capable of winning.

I see your point. Seeing as how the rebels are led by officers who defected from the army and therefore know standard army tactics, would the army be smart to shift tactics to throw the rebels off guard?

[JAD_333]

Syria conflict: Rebels seize Turkey, Iraq border posts

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A video image provided by opposition group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (19 Jul 2012) Video was posted on the internet of rebels defacing a poster of President Assad at the Bab al-Hawa crossing

Syrian rebels have captured a number of positions on the country's borders with Turkey and Iraq.

A senior Iraqi official said all the crossings on Syria's eastern frontier had been seized. At one point, two Turkish posts were also in rebel hands.

The push came a day after a bomb claimed the lives of three senior defence officials in Damascus.

The first images of President Assad since the attack have appeared, largely ending rumours he might have been hurt.

The footage appeared to show Gen Fahd Jassim al-Furayj, chief of staff of the armed forces, being sworn into his new post.

Escalating battle

The rebels, perhaps sensing that the regime was too preoccupied with the escalating battle for the capital, stormed all the posts on the Iraqi border, the BBC's Jim Muir in neighbouring Lebanon says.

Map

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The major Abu Kamal crossing on the Euphrates river in the east was captured after a clash with government forces, opposition activists said.

More than 20 Syrian soldiers and their commander were killed when a remote army outpost in the far north-east was attacked, Associated Press news agency reported.

Iraq's government, seen as sympathetic to President Bashar al-Assad, has threatened to shut its side of the border and one official told Reuters news agency that it was closing the Abu Kamal crossing.

On the frontier with Turkey, too, rebels were said to have taken control of two posts, at Bab al-Hawa and Jarablus.

Video from the Bab al-Hawa crossing in Idlib province soon emerged of rebels defacing a portrait of President Assad, but they later reportedly withdrew from the position.

For four days, rebels have been involved in clashes in areas of the capital as they push their "Damascus volcano" operation against Syrian armed forces.

Damascus-based activist Hassan describes how people are too afraid to venture outside

The deaths of three top security officials has led to a mobilisation of government troops in an attempt to drive the rebels out of the city.

The president's brother-in-law, the defence minister and head of the government's crisis team were killed by a bomb as they attended a meeting at the national security headquarters.

Tanks and armoured vehicles were reported to have moved into Qaboun on Thursday, close to the centre of Damascus.

There were heavy casualties, activists said, as a result of an army bombardment of Zamalka in the eastern outskirts of Damascus.

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The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the number of fatalities across the country on Thursday at 250.
'Indefensible'

The pace of events in Syria was in marked contrast to the diplomatic stalemate at the UN Security Council, where Russia and China vetoed a Western resolution calling for tougher sanctions on Damascus.

Analysis
Laura Trevelyan Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New York

The mood inside the Security Council chamber was acrimonious after China and Russia vetoed the resolution. Britain's ambassador accused the two nations of protecting a brutal regime by their actions. America's ambassador said the council had failed utterly in the most important task on its agenda.

China's ambassador denounced what he called an uneven resolution which placed pressure on one side, while Russia's representative claimed the resolution would have opened the path to military involvement in Syria's affairs.

Now negotiations are under way to try to extend the mandate of the UN monitoring mission in Syria which is due to expire on Friday.

The mission is supposed to monitor a ceasefire and support a political process - neither of which exist. So the UK is proposing a 30 day "final" extension.

Under the Western-backed plan, the Damascus government would have been threatened with non-military sanctions under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter if it failed to move troops and heavy weapons from populated areas.

But the use of Chapter Seven paved the way for "external military involvement in Syrian domestic affairs", Russia's UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin argued.

The UK, US and France said the UN had failed the people of Syria and UK Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned the use of the veto as "inexcusable and indefensible".

The Security Council still has to decide whether to renew the mandate of the 300-strong UN observer mission in Syria, due to end on Friday, and talks on a possible compromise resolution have begun.

The UK is said to be proposing an extension for a "final 30 days".

Although the US says it might consider a brief addition to the monitoring mission, White House spokesman Jay Carney said Washington did not back sending in unarmed UN employees "when there's no mechanism within the resolution to create consequences for the regime".

BBC News - Syria conflict: Rebels seize Turkey, Iraq border posts

[Officer of Engineers]

The military POV interests me. Are you thinking in terms of urban warfare or do you perceive that the army is simply too scattered and uncoordinated to be effective at this point?

Both and part of this is the rebel strength. The rebels can move freely through whatever lanes (roof tops, back streets, sewers, back doors, I don't know). The army has to contain the rebels and that means forcing them to stand and fight, not chase them through the streets. I don't know the layout of the city but there has to be a centre of gravity in which the rebels must take in order to take the city. Fight there and trap the rebels there.

I also wonder about the use of heavy weapons in the city and the possibility Assad would alienate his Damascus supporters. Is there a less heavy-handed, but effective way to deal with the rebels in an urban setting?

It's not heavy handed enough. If the army could have contained the rebels, then artillery and HMG make sense. As it is, they're just slowing the army down in chasing the rebels.

I see your point. Seeing as how the rebels are led by officers who defected from the army and therefore know standard army tactics, would the army be smart to shift tactics to throw the rebels off guard?

Like the Libyan War, I have not been impressed by either side. This is a war of company level actions. Switching tactics is not going to throw the rebels off. They don't know what they're doing anymore than the army.

[JAD_333]

Col, that said, do you think the army will get its act together?

Mind you, I am rooting for Assad's immediate departure from Syria and the establishment of an interim government, which would be a fitting end to the combat phase of the revolution.

[Officer of Engineers]

Col, that said, do you think the army will get its act together?

Nope but neither do I think the rebels will take Damascus. They will retreat once exhausted and declare victory. The collapse of the regime will come outside of Damascus.

[dave lukins]

Nope but neither do I think the rebels will take Damascus. They will retreat once exhausted and declare victory. The collapse of the regime will come outside of Damascus.

Will the rest of the UN onlookers get tough once the Regime starts to crumble and do a Libya? ;)

[snapper]

Russia's UN envoy, Vitaly Churkin "It's all about Iran. It's all about geopolitical complexion of the Middle East. It's all about the changes, some unexpected to our Western colleagues, which came about as a result of military intervention in Iraq and change of the political structure there. I'm not making any revelations to you, there is not a serious person I have talked to who would have any doubt about it, that a major geopolitical battle is being fought on the fields of Syria which has nothing to do with the interests of the Syrian people who are not interested in being the objects of this kind of geopolitical competition."

He is, of course, entirely correct.

As for the actual fighting it is clearly in the FSA's interests to fight in cities. Deployment of armour and use of the heavy weaponry the regime has in such environments only alienates more people. Assad would be wiser, in my opinion, to keep the heavy weapons outside the cities and block reinforcements and arm supplies coming into the country, then use his Alawite militias to flush out the alleys and warrens inside the cities.

[Parihaka]

Russia's UN envoy, Vitaly Churkin "It's all about Iran. It's all about geopolitical complexion of the Middle East. It's all about the changes, some unexpected to our Western colleagues, which came about as a result of military intervention in Iraq and change of the political structure there. I'm not making any revelations to you, there is not a serious person I have talked to who would have any doubt about it, that a major geopolitical battle is being fought on the fields of Syria which has nothing to do with the interests of the Syrian people who are not interested in being the objects of this kind of geopolitical competition."

He is, of course, entirely correct.

Of course he is, and it's working out unexpectedly and awkwardly for his country.

[S2]

"...it's working out unexpectedly and awkwardly for his country."

"...awkwardly..."?

As in-"The Russian Ambassador's residence to the new government of Syria shall be provided with our finest donkeys for transportation and a very accomodating two-man puptent."

[JAD_333]

Russia's UN envoy, Vitaly Churkin "It's all about Iran. It's all about geopolitical complexion of the Middle East. It's all about the changes, some unexpected to our Western colleagues, which came about as a result of military intervention in Iraq and change of the political structure there. I'm not making any revelations to you, there is not a serious person I have talked to who would have any doubt about it, that a major geopolitical battle is being fought on the fields of Syria which has nothing to do with the interests of the Syrian people who are not interested in being the objects of this kind of geopolitical competition."

He is, of course, entirely correct.

Especially about Iraq being the initial trigger, a point often made in defense of the Iraq invasion.