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Turkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics

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  • #31
    Originally posted by TTL View Post
    Cyppok, I agree with you on political and cultural rights of Kurds and that they should have political representation. OTOH your claim that political parties can support violence is unacceptable. Turkey is not a dictatorial nation, we have shortcomings and laws that need to change but precondition for joining the debate on change is respect to democracy and laws. Minorities should have full democratic and cultural rights but they don't have the right to secession. Belgians might accept a break up, that is up to them, this doesn't mean others should follow the same state model and indeed most nations don't.

    Tony Blair recently made a speech in which he said they only started negotiations with IRA after terrorists agreed to non-violance. I believe we should aslo follow a similar model.

    On the military confrontation between Kurds and Turkey, I really don't understand why do you place such high trust in their conventional capabilities. PKK is a terrorist organization with zero conventional experience or capability, KRG army is a green force in conventional warfare with no history of any independent major operation, which don't have an airforce and yet you still assume they will attack the second largest army of NATO across difficult terrain.
    Voicing support and active participation in an uprising are two different things. I support the voicing part not the active participation. Most of the politicians Turkey rounded up were voicing support... ergo free speech right to believe something you don't have to.

    I believe in practice TTL the Kurds had a lot of practice from 1991 until now. Also the terrain is favorable for the defender and one who knows it. There is critical mass 5 million is a lot of people especially if a lot of them fought already and had military experience AND now have oil revenue AND got military equipment from the U.S. before and after pullout. PKK will be absorbed by the two/three political forces in Kurdish Iraq and their ideology will be absorbed as well. Those Barzanis and Talibanis have troops, experience ones and with combat experience. If you notice there are 3 main parties now there so if there is an ideal that the population has like nationhood and taking over in southern Turkey to establish a nation they cannot ignore their constituency or risk gradual power transfer to those whom do what the people want.

    Second you are ignoring how uprisings happen. Lets say Kurds in Turkey hit six different areas beyond the line of control at the border. Military cordons off those areas and sends troops to engage them(some will be lured into future force concentration cauldrons), more of this happens again and again. In the end the whole force is tied down for a few weeks. Then you mass concentration and push at the weak spot or ambush. This is what Chechens did in Chechnya... Line of control has to be where you actually have control not ephemeral control.
    Last edited by cyppok; 17 Nov 11,, 03:56.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    • #32
      Reflections on chain reaction

      Syrians would accept Turkish intervention: Brotherhood leader - Hurriyet Daily News

      Thursday, November 17, 2011
      ISTANBUL- Reuters

      A leader of Syria's outlawed Muslim Brotherhood said today that the Syrian people would accept military intervention by Turkey, rather than Western countries, to protect them from President Bashar al-Assad's security forces.
      Action possible in Syria: US adviser - Hurriyet Daily News

      Action possible in Syria: US adviser
      Thursday, November 17, 2011
      İPEK YEZDANİ
      ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News

      An international intervention in Syria is likely, if the crackdown continues
      in the country, according to Obama’s intelligence adviser who claims President al-Assad would be toppled in the end because his people hate him
      If things continue as they are in Syria, an international intervention like in Libya may be possible, according to Chuck Hagel, co-chairman of U.S. President Barack Obama’s Intelligence Advisory Board and chairman of the Atlantic Council.

      “If things continue to go as they are in Syria, more innocent Syrian civilians are killed and Assad remains in power, then you may well see some international intervention,” Hagel told the Hürriyet Daily News yesterday.
      I mentioned before that I see two outcomes in Syrian intervention.
      http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/ara...tml#post841527
      B)By foreign intervention I mean Turkey taking northern Syria for regime change and/or annexation creating a shift for Iraq being divided up between Turkey/Syria and Iran, with Kurds fighting to survive for a while. [Yes I know this is unlikely but the cause/effect chain reaction is there]
      Intervention could create a pan-regional civil war. 20-30 million Sunni Arabs vying for independence after being "stabilized". 20-30 million Kurds have another reason to go for Independence and attempting to re-establish themselves in the region. Flow of arms from Lebanon/Jordan would absolutely happen.

      The U.S. public would be very much against another "intervention" no matter how it is sold. Turkey does not have the finances to do it to be quiet blunt, it could get money from a backer but the redistribution of balance of powers in the region to grow Turkey and Iran influence and perhaps size is not a thing anyone wants. Iran would simply intervene in Iraq citing the same reasons.

      The fact that this is being decided and approached in the media to judge public support/reaction for it is telling. Whom benefits?
      If Turkey had no Kurd unrest and they were integrated into society expansionary possibilities would be justified, this is not the case.
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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      • #33
        Update that's very telling

        The start of operational malaise in the officer ranks?

        MURAT YETK
        The state of the Turkish military

        Following an attempt by the military to influence the presidential elections of 2007, prosecutors and judges equipped with extraordinary authority opened court cases to investigate alleged coup plots against the government. Those cases, with the code names “Ergenekon” and “Balyoz,” have been going on since then, causing a debate over long detention periods for suspects and unjustified accusations.

        Among those under arrest in these cases are 36 high-ranking military officers. They have been dismissed from the army following a decision made at the Supreme Military Council meeting in July, and were transferred from a military prison to the civilian Silivri prison near Istanbul on Sept. 6. There they joined former chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ, who is being tried as part of the Ergenekon case, accused of conspiring against the Tayyip Erdoğan government. Başbuğ’s detention earlier this year caused additional tremors within the ranks of the military.

        Among security circles a lot of stories are being told of a lack of morale among military officers. One such story is about the commander of a military station near the Iraqi border, who asked his headquarters whether he should return fire at attacking militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), because he did not want to be put on trial later on.

        Another one is about a middle-rank officer who asked to be excused from a meeting at which possible response scenarios in case of new attacks were to be discussed, in the presence of a minister and the governor of the district. “Some of my colleagues are in prison for attending scenario assessments, sir,” the officer allegedly said. “Just give us the orders and we will execute them.”

        Another story tells of an officer participating in the recent Turkish-U.S. joint work on Syrian border-security scenarios. When the diplomats began discussing possible moves on the other side of the border, the officer allegedly stopped talking, saying he did not have written orders to assess that, and would not continue.

        For years, members of the Turkish military have been accused of overdoing it with taking the initiative, and now the case is just the opposite: Soldiers are asking for clear orders from political authorities on every step that is to be taken, even under present danger, in order not to face court cases like the one Başbuğ is being tried under. Now the belief is that the courts are overstepping their authority. But this strain within the system is clearly eroding the capabilities of the military, at a time when the PKK has launched a wild armed campaign and the situation in Syria and the rest of the region is becoming tenser every day.

        September/08/2012
        I only took the bottom half of the article. My feeling is this is only a very very small sliver of the beginning. Once the top is changed to political appointees and corruption flows downhill the prerogative from operational awareness to monetary enrichment will be the switch that plunks down the ability of the army to perform.

        My guess is in five years or so most of military will be politically controlled, budget will get cut a few times and size reduced somewhat. Etc...
        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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        • #34
          I like being right, its slowly setting up for my thought process.

          Iraq Intends to Deploy Troops in Kurdistan to Stop Turkey’s Military Operations | StratRisks
          October 17, 2012
          Iraq Intends to Deploy Troops in Kurdistan to Stop Turkey’s Military Operations

          Iraq urges the Kurdish autonomy to approve the deployment of troops on the border with Turkey to prevent the Turkish troops’ entering Iraq, as well as to stop air strikes on the country against the militants of Kurdistan Workers’ Party, head of the Iraqi parliamentary security committee Iskander Witwit told Trend on Wednesday.

          “We urge the Kurdish autonomy to provide the central government with all rights to deploy the troops on the border with Turkey to prevent Turkish troops’ entering Iraq,” he added.

          Bad relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish autonomy hamper the central government to take more serious steps to prevent Turkish troops to conduct military operations in northern Iraq, he said.
          My guess is the autonomy won't approve it, right away. HOWEVER! sooner or later the Arab-Kurdish interests will align in such a way that it will make sense for part of this to happen.

          Witwit said that the Iraqi parliament is considering the issue of cancelling the agreement about the presence of Turkish troops in Iraq signed earlier between Turkey and Iraq.

          He added that the agreement is wrong as it threatens Iraq’s sovereignty.
          Witwit added that many members of the Iraqi Parliament support the cancellation of the agreement between Turkey and Iraq, allowing Turkish troops to carry out air strikes in northern Iraq.
          This however is the important part of the article. All those border bases established by Turkey in Iraq's northern areas are going to get the de-jure rug slowly pulled out of them. They will still be there but the pressure to move off will increase.

          “Turkey has recently started conducting a policy of intervention in the affairs of the regional countries,” he said. “This unjustified interference strongly influenced the relations between Iraq and Turkey and threatened their further development.”

          Witwit stressed that Iraq had repeatedly warned Erdogan’s government to refrain from interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs, but in spite of this, Ankara continues interfering by trying to create chaos in the internal politics of the country.

          “Turkey is cooperating with some political forces in Iraq to destabilize the situation in the country,” he said. “Ankara’s ultimate goal is to split and destruct Iraq.”

          He added that Turkey and Iraq must reconsider their relations.
          He stressed that Iraq stands for improving these relations if Ankara abandons its policy of interfering in the country’s affairs.

          Earlier, the Turkish parliament approved the mandate on transborder operations against Syria as an answer to firing on Turkish Shanliurfa city by Syrian army.

          A military operation, to be conducted by Turkey in northern Iraq against militants of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party is fully consistent with international law, a source in the Turkish government told Trend earlier.

          The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has lasted for over 25 years. The PKK is recognised as a terrorist organisation by both the UN and the EU.
          Earlier Turkey was allowed to go into Northern Iraq, now that permission is melting away. While they can still do so on their own it will in essence become an act of aggression at least from the Iraqi point of view.
          Economically the Iraq-Syria pipeline will compete to some degree with TAPI realistically it won't since it is non funcational at this point. There are pipelines from North-Iraq to Turkey (I figure not sure) so to some degree those flows would be rerouted if Syria gains stability of some semblance.

          They will eventually approve the Iraqi deployment in such a way that it is bound to be under fire every time PKK goes into Turkey, at this point the PKK struggle becomes internationalized since it will come under a sovereign aegis similar to what is happening in Syria.

          This is the most important loss of Turkish foreign policy. Ergo both Syria and Iraq are beginning to become internationalized in this struggle which will intensify with time and more idiocy. It would have been very easy to simply not intervene, because hiding other peoples' enemies means they have incentive to hide yours. Reciprocity at work.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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          • #35
            My guess is the autonomy won't approve it, right away. HOWEVER! sooner or later the Arab-Kurdish interests will align in such a way that it will make sense for part of this to happen.
            How is this gonna happen? Iraqi troops on KRG soil simply ends any hopes of Kurdish independence which is hardly a problem for Turkey. Let arabs fight pkk instead of us or at least open another front. Also both Israel and US hit other countries in hot pursuit of terrorists constantly, hardly anyone who matters would challenge us for doing the same.

            It would have been very easy to simply not intervene, because hiding other peoples' enemies means they have incentive to hide yours. Reciprocity at work.
            Did you study the history of region starting only from 2003? Syria supported PKK for a long time and only stopped it after we threatened invasion. Now it seems Essad's fortunes have turned and we owe him nothing. Reciprocity indeed.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by TTL View Post
              How is this gonna happen? Iraqi troops on KRG soil simply ends any hopes of Kurdish independence which is hardly a problem for Turkey. Let arabs fight pkk instead of us or at least open another front. Also both Israel and US hit other countries in hot pursuit of terrorists constantly, hardly anyone who matters would challenge us for doing the same.
              Kurds could give them an indefensible always under fire position from Turkey. Somewhere where it does not intrude on the two factions control but does give a "roof" to the PKK. It could be limited in scope and time, and any other shape of form they could come to an agreement upon.

              The notion here is for both political clout and international impetus to have clout in one way or another. Yes the Israelis and US do so constantly they suffer blowback from it as well.

              Originally posted by TTL View Post
              Did you study the history of region starting only from 2003? Syria supported PKK for a long time and only stopped it after we threatened invasion. Now it seems Essad's fortunes have turned and we owe him nothing. Reciprocity indeed.
              Syria suppressed the PKK for as long as Turkey did not meddle in Syrian affairs in support of that would benefit it. Once it was expedient on world stage to meddle in affairs the suppression of the PKK stopped.

              Notice how gradual this whole process is. I severely doubt anyone invades Turkey for cross-border incursions, the blowback is a funded insurgency courtesy of those you transgress upon. That is the stark reality, the difference is that right now PKK is for the most part self-funded, if some sovereign state throws surplus equipment or money at them to balance the scales of reality things get interesting do they not?
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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              • #37
                Yes yes, the old dream of Greeks, that the Kurds somehow makes Turkey go away.... wont happen, in time even Greece will become a puppet of ours. :pop:

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                  Yes yes, the old dream of Greeks, that the Kurds somehow makes Turkey go away.... wont happen, in time even Greece will become a puppet of ours. :pop:
                  lol. We have been over this I am not Greek...

                  Look I just have a very cynical point of view that's it. Don't take it personal look at every thread I start pessimism is abound in each. I though Ukraine would be bankrupt by now, Poland is on the brink, and Russia got rid of freedom of speech. U.S. has elections between two people whom are exactly the same (Romneycare=Obamacare) and their issues are more or less so inline that it is absurd for me.

                  I have grains of truth in that cynicism.

                  Turkey did loose by speaking and acting to impact internal struggles in nations bordering it, Iraq & Syria. Both those nations retaliated by funding the insurgency and protecting PKK and other ways. Ergo they simply decided to act in a similar way just slightly underhandedly since they are weaker. Influencing sovereign ambitions and geopolitics come from internal and external sources, Turkey changed its' policies and the neighbors around changed their to accomodate coping with pressure on them. This is the jist of it.

                  You know what I think happens in the end? Chechnya 2 on a larger scale in Turkey. It will happen once the global economy is disrupted and trade flows slack, causing a devaluation and an economic crash similar to what Russia went through in 1998. That will be the ultimate push towards widespread conflict in the region. Once the only way to quell internal economic problems become hidden by a fasade of external "necessity" you get horrible outcomes.

                  Weakness and stupidity come in many forms. Was it wise to pressure Assad and cut off economic ties? what if you just pretended to do something but did not intervene?

                  Not a bad video to watch. added.
                  Last edited by cyppok; 19 Oct 12,, 01:34. Reason: Not a bad video to watch. added.
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                    Yes yes, the old dream of Greeks, that the Kurds somehow makes Turkey go away.... wont happen, in time even Greece will become a puppet of ours. :pop:
                    You mean again, or you got stucked in the 14th century?
                    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                      lol. We have been over this I am not Greek...
                      You are an Australian of Greek descent, in my book, that makes you a Greek. ; )

                      I have grains of truth in that cynicism.
                      It's not cynicism, what you exhibit, its a mixture of flawed logic and wishful thinking.

                      Turkey did loose by speaking and acting to impact internal struggles in nations bordering it, Iraq & Syria.
                      Turkey didn't lose anything, the game isn't over yet, it never is. As it has always been for thousend of years, we are in the middle of a competition with the Persians. Its a circle and we allways end up winning.

                      You know what I think happens in the end? Chechnya 2 on a larger scale in Turkey. It will happen once the global economy is disrupted and trade flows slack, causing a devaluation and an economic crash similar to what Russia went through in 1998. That will be the ultimate push towards widespread conflict in the region. Once the only way to quell internal economic problems become hidden by a fasade of external "necessity" you get horrible outcomes.
                      Sounds like one of Nostradamus' phrases.....

                      Weakness and stupidity come in many forms. Was it wise to pressure Assad and cut off economic ties? what if you just pretended to do something but did not intervene?
                      Yes it is essential for Turkey to end the Assadregime to weaken Iran, after that Iraq..... and when the whole cyle is over Iran will be put in its box again.:pop:

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                        You mean again, or you got stucked in the 14th century?
                        No, I ment what I wrote, in the 14 th century they became part of the OE, this time we will just control their economy, no annexation intended, allways too much trouble with those lazy a-holes.:whome:

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                          You are an Australian of Greek descent, in my book, that makes you a Greek. ; )
                          You don't read my signature at all?

                          I am from Sochi, its' in Russia. I live in Brooklyn, USA... HOW DOES IT MAKE ME AUSTRALIAN OR GREEK!!! I am not Armenian either btw.
                          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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