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S2 · 15 Aug 11,, 11:25

Haven't got a clue myself. Kurdistan is bubbling near Kirkuk. Fat boy lives and says the shias will attack U.S. troops if we don't leave. Maliki is cozy with the Iranians. We're hitting up against a point-of-no-return if the Iraqi legislature doesn't extend an invite to stay.

Obviously there's a lot of ground to cover. Sectarian-based and A.Q. related violence remain real concerns but the reality is that the government is in pretty firm control of the security situation relative to four years ago. That's reflected in the absence of sky-is-falling news.

Shek's over there now and, hopefully, will have the straight skinny or, at least, some nice observations when he gets back in a couple of months.

**RoccoR** · 17 Aug 11,, 22:57

YellowFever, S-2, et al,

BLUF: The original concept fell through and is a total debacle.

I believe the real power and influence came from the ranks of the PNAC (Project for a New American Century). They wanted to extend the US Military Hegemony and insert it smack in the center of the Middle East to support the political agenda of US dominance in the Region and (using the stick in the Carrot & Stick) bring US suggestions more to the forefront. The AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) was the mechanism to insert forces and the "War on Terrorism" was the mantra.

Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a policy analyst for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
William J. Bennett, member of the National Security Advisory Council of the Center for Security Policy (CSP) and the Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President George H. W. Bush.
Eliot A. Cohen, co-founder of the PNAC and former Counselor to the United States Department of State under Secretary Condoleezza Rice.
Paula Dobriansky, former Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs from 2001-2009.
Fred C. Ikle, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy who later played a key role in increasing aid to anti-Soviet operators in Afghanistan.

Not to mention another list of PNAC formers:

Jeb Bush, Brother
Dick Cheney, VP
Zalmay Khalilzad, Ambo Iraq & Afghanistan
I. (Scooter) Lewis Libby, CoS, VP
Dan Quayle, VP
Donald Rumsfeld, SECDEF
Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy SECDEF
and a host of others!

The simultaneous convergence of all these Type A personalities in position of either power, influence or both, amplified and molded the interventionist policies of the US and intrenched the belief that the US was in mortal danger. To a degree, many of the key players today are legacy influences molded by these players.

The PNAC was able to manipulate the truth, and exaggerate the situation (relative to Iraq) and generate the momentum. Then, after the truth surfaced, they wanted to squelch all opposition by making it look like a withdrawal, after a Military Victory, was a defeatist attitude.

The manipulation of the facts worked, more or less, flawlessly. The Political-Military leadership failed.

Originally posted by S2 View Post

Originally posted by YellowFever

REF: Iraqi Situation

I'm ashamed to admit that I have not been keeping current with news out of Iraq.

I could've read up on articles but I found out that over the years, the expert in this forum will give us the real skinny without the flowery, "everything is going as planned" crap the government spews every now and then.

So I'm asking the experts to give us your thoughts wrt Iraq....politically, militarily....etc.

Haven't got a clue myself. Kurdistan is bubbling near Kirkuk. Fat boy lives and says the shias will attack U.S. troops if we don't leave. Maliki is cozy with the Iranians. We're hitting up against a point-of-no-return if the Iraqi legislature doesn't extend an invite to stay.

(COMMENT)

The current situation is that the MNF-I, reduced to USF-I, is about to further reduced. The Department of State (DOS) has been increasing its size.

I believe that the current situation between Kurds and Arabs will be a long-term dispute, in which the US will become entangled. It will become another costly adventure.

Originally posted by S2 View Post

Obviously there's a lot of ground to cover. Sectarian-based and A.Q. related violence remain real concerns but the reality is that the government is in pretty firm control of the security situation relative to four years ago. That's reflected in the absence of sky-is-falling news.

(COMMENT)

There is no threat from al-Qaeda (AQ) (alla 911 associated) of any consequence; there never was. The military calls everything AQ. The original foreign insurgents were JTJ (Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad) and only pledged allegiance to AQ (Osama bin Laden) in OCT 04, after always being misidentified by US Forces. The JTJ/AQI operated in Iraq, with some frequency, until the death of its leader Abu Masab al-Zarqawi in June 06. It gradually declined in its ability to function over the next year.

Today, Iranian-backed militant groups, directly supported by Revolutionary Guard Corps�s Quds Force, pose the current threat to Iraq than any al-Qaeda affiliate. This is largely due to the influence Iran bought when it convinced the radical anti-American Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to support PM Nouri al-Maliki in his re-election bid after al-Maliki lost. The "democratic process" did not work.

Originally posted by S2 View Post

Shek's over there now and, hopefully, will have the straight skinny or, at least, some nice observations when he gets back in a couple of months.

(COMMENT)

In a very desperate bid to hold on to something in Iraq, and to keep it from falling totally under Iranian influence, the US Embassy, whose numbers will double to 16000 personnel next year, in the hopes to retard Iranian dominance. We are virtually begging the Iraqis to let us stay.

Needless to say, the idea of a Military Hegemony, in the Middle East, is broken. And the cost of a US presence in Iraq will continue.

Most Respectfully,
R

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