2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[Bigfella]

Israel would probably have been better off pursing a strategy of occupying the 12 klick border zone shared by Egypt and Gaza long ago together with a zone a couple of klicks deep back into Gaza itself. Then fortifying it both upwards and downwards as far as they can go. Hamas would be cut of at knees financially and militarily because the smuggling tunnels that run under that border are and were their main source of revenue and armaments. No need to bomb the strip to dust. Just embargo the shit out of the place with only food an medicine getting in..

Yes, in theory that would have been a good idea. That is what will be happening now plus a few more security zones cutting through the strip. Gaza is going to be sewn up pretty tight.

[Monash]

Gaza won't be 'emptied' in its entirety, but parts of it will most definitely be cleared of people and turned into 'security zones'. That was always going to happen anyway to an extent, but had Biden won there would have been at least some pushback to limit how much land was taken & where. Trump won't care. Gaza is going to be split up into a series of walled off areas surrounded & constantly monitored by Israeli security forces. Everything that goes in & comes out wil lbe monitored to a greater degree than ever before. Rebuilding will be slow & life will be even less pleasant that it was before.

Israel would probably have been better off pursing a strategy of occupying the 12 klick border zone shared by Egypt and Gaza long ago together with a zone a couple of klicks deep back into Gaza itself. Then fortifying it both upwards and downwards as far as they can go. Hamas would be cut of at knees financially and militarily because the smuggling tunnels that run under that border are and were their main source of revenue and armaments. No need to bomb the strip to dust. Just embargo the shit out of the place with only food an medicine getting in..

[Bigfella]

I'm sure the IDF are absolutely ecstatic that the Netanyahu administration gave them the task to empty out Gaza after they allowed all the people back in.

Gaza won't be 'emptied' in its entirety, but parts of it will most definitely be cleared of people and turned into 'security zones'. That was always going to happen anyway to an extent, but had Biden won there would have been at least some pushback to limit how much land was taken & where. Trump won't care. Gaza is going to be split up into a series of walled off areas surrounded & constantly monitored by Israeli security forces. Everything that goes in & comes out wil lbe monitored to a greater degree than ever before. Rebuilding will be slow & life will be even less pleasant that it was before.

[rj1]

I'm sure the IDF are absolutely ecstatic that the Netanyahu administration gave them the task to empty out Gaza after they allowed all the people back in.

[Monash]

Predicting Netanyahu's demise is as popular as it is unsuccessful. He looked down & out many times & proved remarkably resilient. Lets see how he goes.

As for Israel 'failing', I wouldn't be putting money on that either. Again, has shown an impressive ability to adapt and survive. Far more so than its neighbours.

You might be right about Netanyahu but my point was that the charges haven't gone away and if he had the ability to make that happen? He would have done so long ago. Beyond that and to clarify I wasn't predicting the 'failure' of the Israeli State, I simply noted that secular Israelis appear to have had enough of doing all the 'heavy lifting' for the conservative orthodox section of the population.

The High Court has already ruled that ultra orthodox Jews are no longer exempt from military service, that hasn't caused the State to fall over. So I doubt passing laws phasing out financial support for them will either. In fact probably the opposite, not having to pay for all Ultra Orthodox Jews to study religion and support their families at the same time? Is only going to improve the State's bottom line. God knows the current situation isn't financially sustainable for demographic reasons. So no, I wasn't anticipating the State of Israel 'failing' any time soon and if what I predicted actually happens? It would actually be in a sounder financial position than it is currently.

[Bigfella]

Netanyahu's term in office still has to end whether he likes it or not. After that? He needs to win office again. If he doesn't? He faces the same criminal charges that have been hanging over has head these past few years whether he likes it or not. And those charges haven't gone away no matter how how he's tried to avoid them. If he ties to stage some kind of constitutional 'Putsch'? All I can say is 'good luck'? Because (based on al the media reports I've seen these past few years) secular Israeli's have just about had enough of carrying the Orthodox religious Jews on their economic backs.

The hard truth is that whether Netanyahu stays in power after the next election or not? The Israeli State's current path is economically unsustainable and as such? It's destined to fail.

Predicting Netanyahu's demise is as popular as it is unsuccessful. He looked down & out many times & proved remarkably resilient. Lets see how he goes.

As for Israel 'failing', I wouldn't be putting money on that either. Again, has shown an impressive ability to adapt and survive. Far more so than its neighbours.

[Monash]

Go back a year & Netanyahu looked like a man on borrowed time. He had presided over the worst Israeli intelligence failure in (exactly) 50 years and the largest single day death toll of Jews since the holocaust. In the US he had a President who, while supportive of Israel, would happily have seen him removed from office & replaced by someone more amenable to peace negotiations. He was basically hanging on.

How things have changed. He may now be the most significant & transformative Israeli leader since its early days. Hezbollah has been seriously weakened. The Assads are gone along with their Russian backers. Iran's regional position has been seriously weakened. Hamas has been wrecked and will struggle to regain the power & lattitude for action it did before. And he has a US President who has made it clear that he isn't much fussed how Netanyahu deals with Gaza - up to & including mass deportations.

He could still stuff it all up, but for now he is in a position of strength unimaginable a year ago. He is going to be setting the terms by which any Palestinian hopes for....well anything much...advance. Provided he doesn't go full Milosevic Arab nations will grudgingly deal with him. What a difference a year can make.

Netanyahu's term in office still has to end whether he likes it or not. After that? He needs to win office again. If he doesn't? He faces the same criminal charges that have been hanging over has head these past few years whether he likes it or not. And those charges haven't gone away no matter how how he's tried to avoid them. If he ties to stage some kind of constitutional 'Putsch'? All I can say is 'good luck'? Because (based on al the media reports I've seen these past few years) secular Israeli's have just about had enough of carrying the Orthodox religious Jews on their economic backs.

The hard truth is that whether Netanyahu stays in power after the next election or not? The Israeli State's current path is economically unsustainable and as such? It's destined to fail.

[Bigfella]

Go back a year & Netanyahu looked like a man on borrowed time. He had presided over the worst Israeli intelligence failure in (exactly) 50 years and the largest single day death toll of Jews since the holocaust. In the US he had a President who, while supportive of Israel, would happily have seen him removed from office & replaced by someone more amenable to peace negotiations. He was basically hanging on.

How things have changed. He may now be the most significant & transformative Israeli leader since its early days. Hezbollah has been seriously weakened. The Assads are gone along with their Russian backers. Iran's regional position has been seriously weakened. Hamas has been wrecked and will struggle to regain the power & lattitude for action it did before. And he has a US President who has made it clear that he isn't much fussed how Netanyahu deals with Gaza - up to & including mass deportations.

He could still stuff it all up, but for now he is in a position of strength unimaginable a year ago. He is going to be setting the terms by which any Palestinian hopes for....well anything much...advance. Provided he doesn't go full Milosevic Arab nations will grudgingly deal with him. What a difference a year can make.

[Officer of Engineers]

[TopHatter]

Israel has launched its retaliatory strike against Iran

https://www.twz.com/news-features/is...ran-have-begun

[rj1]

It's not that simple. Your not a 'foreign agent' for example if your a Chinese/American, (born in the US) who imports machinery from China and whose bottom line is going to be badly impacted if the US decides to raise tariffs on Chinese goods appreciably and your response is to lobby against that increase. Does it matter if the Chinese Government is in favor of what your doing? No. Does it matter if the Chinese Government pays you to do it? Yes.

You don't have to be paid to be a foreign agent. It does help clear some of the ambiguity obviously.

It's illustrative I feel of how American law works. We have a law. Do we want to enforce in your case? It depends on if we like you or not and how rich you are. At the top level we are a corrupt country, states like Israel have figured out how to exploit that to serve them, including much less virtuous states than Israel.

[Officer of Engineers]

As I kept saying, we did 2000 sorties per day during the Kuwait War and 1000 sorties per day during the Iraq War, 750 cruise missiles at Baghdad alone. Anything less is meaningless.

Iran launched 180 missiles at Israel.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...acks-on-israel

[Monash]

Yeah, that is all a crime unless they register as Foreign Agents. Foreign Agents Registration Act - Wikipedia

And I'm pretty confident if investigate journalists dug into it with all these various diaspora organizations funneling money into politics from multiple countries to both parties there's massive money laundering going on, because non-U.S. citizens are barred from donating directly into politics.

It's not that simple. Your not a 'foreign agent' for example if your a Chinese/American, (born in the US) who imports machinery from China and whose bottom line is going to be badly impacted if the US decides to raise tariffs on Chinese goods appreciably and your response is to lobby against that increase. Does it matter if the Chinese Government is in favor of what your doing? No. Does it matter if the Chinese Government pays you to do it? Yes.

Same with American's of Jewish decent who lobby for continued military support for Israel. Especially since they can count on their efforts being amplified by the Christian fundamentalist lobby who quite frankly they seem to be adept at playing like a cheap violin.

[tbm3fan]

Well I think we can all conclude any kind of a cease fire is off the table now. Hezbollah, Iran's forward based proxy, has been hurt badly. The Lincoln is being extended in the region and Truman is rushing over to join. Iran made a mistake with that missile barrage. The next tit for tat is going to be on a magnitude much higher than "you hit me I hit you twice as hard." The question being what is Iran going to lose?

[rj1]

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

Yeah, that is all a crime unless they register as Foreign Agents. Foreign Agents Registration Act - Wikipedia

And I'm pretty confident if investigate journalists dug into it with all these various diaspora organizations funneling money into politics from multiple countries to both parties there's massive money laundering going on, because non-U.S. citizens are barred from donating directly into politics.