2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[statquo]

Drones shot them down? If you are going to lie at least make it slightly plausible.

No they were saying drones were shot down. Not the drones shooting down the missiles.

[tbm3fan]

Missile strikes in Isfahan. Iranians claiming drones shot down

Drones shot them down? If you are going to lie at least make it slightly plausible.

[statquo]

Missile strikes in Isfahan. Iranians claiming drones shot down

[rj1]

Israel struck the city of Isfahan in Iran a couple hours ago.

[Albany Rifles]

Here is more in depth.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/in...-attack-report

[Albany Rifles]

I have seen some reports on Twitter that Israel received tracking data on the inbound missile streams from Saudi & UAE. I think everyone in the region sees an all out war between Israel & Iran as a no win for all. And this includes going after their nuclear program kinetically.

[Monash]

If it was "meant to fail" they could have launched 30 drones and missiles instead of over 300 and lied to their own people about how many there were. Why waste so many?

Most analysts agree this was a face saving gesture (for both domestic and international consumption) in response to Israels deliberate bombing of its Consulate in Syria. Deliberate being the key word in this case. An unintentional bombing like the US Air Forces minor 'oopsy' during the NATO intervention in the Balkans where they bombed the Chinese Embassy would have warranted a different type of reaction. An accidental attack would have been great fodder for Iran's international diplomatic efforts and during normal times (these are not 'normal' times) would probably have forced Israel into offering a cringing apology and compensation for the damage & injuries caused etc which would be a diplomatic 'win' for Iran.

But a deliberate attack? Failure to respond to a deliberate attack by an overtly hostile nation would have made the Iranians appear weak, especially at home where support for the regime is marginal - at best. But the Iranians also had to calibrate their response carefully because they do not want open war to erupt with Israel. (Netanyahu might but that's another story.) This is because a damaging Israeli counterstrike would probably see the regime fall given unofficial surveys have repeatedly shown that the Iranian populous in general, especially younger Iranians have almost zero interest in the pursuing hostilities with Israel. If it was up to them? They'd sign some kind of accord normalizing relations in heart beat.

So, given the above starting conditions i.e. a pressing need to show 'strength' vs an extreme reluctance to risk open war? Basically they 'Goldilocksed' the problem. If they went in too 'hot' and launched thousands of drones and missiles in a full scale assault? They risked their own destruction. If they went in 'cold' and just launched a dozen or so drones and missiles? It would look just like what it was i.e. a weak attack for 'show'. This is because the worlds governments (and the media) all know that Iran could have launched a much stronger attack if it really wanted to. So instead they went in with what they hoped was the 'just right' approach. And launched just enough weapons (300 or so) to force the Israelis into making serious efforts to stop the attack but with the likelihood that in reality very few drones would actually make it through. Given how little damage was done? They guesstimated right (this time). Next time?

[Firestorm]

There's talk that this attack by Iran, they wanted to be seen as retaliating, but it was meant to fail. Essentially it was symbolic. The only casualties were people banging their heads on their way into shelters, panic attacks, and in one case a girl injured by shrapnel from an Iron Dome projectile.

If it was "meant to fail" they could have launched 30 drones and missiles instead of over 300 and lied to their own people about how many there were. Why waste so many?

[statquo]

Shouldn’t the US and allies have some more political standing considering the US, UK, France, Jordan all shot down a hefty amount of these drones and missiles? If they weren’t there, how many more would have gotten through?

OTOH, would anyone be surprised if the Israelis use a response to finally get their hands on parts of the Iranian nuclear program?

[Monash]

They retaliated as their El Supremo leader said they would! That the sheer lack of damage and injuries would tend to bear out that it was meant to fail!
I guess the big question is going to be if Israel will play along????

I strongly suspect the Biden administration will be pressuring the Israeli's not to respond given the lack of casualties and the minimal damage caused by the attack. In fact the biggest hit from this attack will have been on Israel's defense budget given Iron Dome missiles cost 40-50K a piece and everyone knows Iran could have launched far more strikes than it did if they were serious.

Out of interest though you have to wonder what if anything the current state of tension between Israel and Iran is going to do to it's ongoing supply of drones to Russia?

[Amled]

They retaliated as their El Supremo leader said they would! That the sheer lack of damage and injuries would tend to bear out that it was meant to fail!
I guess the big question is going to be if Israel will play along????

[Ironduke]

There's talk that this attack by Iran, they wanted to be seen as retaliating, but it was meant to fail. Essentially it was symbolic. The only casualties were people banging their heads on their way into shelters, panic attacks, and in one case a girl injured by shrapnel from an Iron Dome projectile.

[Officer of Engineers]

Iran launches massive drone and missile attack against Israel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nline_manual_1

[Officer of Engineers]

Iranian drones attacking Israel

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/13/middl...tam/index.html

[Monash]

IF true it smacks of a general 'if it moves kill it ' approach to target identification and engagement in this campaign, although again that would explain certainly a lot.

I believe as a matter of reality, if not policy, this has in fact become de facto policy on the ground. Any military age male Gazan under 30 is automatically treated as an Hamas fighter.

As for your later, I see they have been removed from key roles and reassigned to backwater slots. But Israel cannot afford to lose anyone from uniform...not with the Hassidic young male excused from duty...more than 1 in 5.

According to reports I've seen the Israeli High Court has recently issued a judgement ending those exemptions. (And about time too.) I've always been gobsmacked by the idea that the segment of Israel's population whose leadership regularly calls for the introduction of a Zionist State, the seizure of all land owned by and the expulsion of Palestinians from Israeli 'territory' and even the expansion it's borders to (ancient) historical limits is also exempted from having to fight in any wars that might result from those aims! And to top that off? Also being entitled to state pensions so they can be free of the obligation of having to work for a living or from having paying taxes! (Which coincidentally are the next two issues that IMO need serious examination by the Courts).

Very easy to support armed conflict if you personally are never at risk of having to fight in it or even have to work and pay the taxes that fund it!