2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[rj1]

Saw today a Taiwanese manufacturer for the pagers that are surely about to lose business in a major way say the pagers were made under contract by a company in Europe.

...Gold Apollo has stated that the production of 5000 pagers that were imported to Lebanon and eventually provided to Hezbollah, mainly the AR924 model pager, were subcontracted to a company in Europe.

Gold Apollo said those pagers were "entirely handled" by a Hungarian company called BAC Consulting KFT, which was authorized to use Gold Apollo's brand trademark in some regions.

...Hungarian government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs contested Gold Apollo's account, posting on social media that the BAC is a "trading intermediary, with no manufacturing or operational site in Hungary. It has one manager at its declared address, and the referenced devices have never been in Hungary.

"Entirely handled" is bullsh*t unless there's a factory. Where's the factory? Although BAC has a suspicious setup and probably knows a lot of the answers of who is responsible through their subcontractors if it's not them.

BAC Consulting KFT was established in 2022, according to documents filed at the Ministry of Justice. Its main job was listed as consulting, but it was also registered to do other things, including produce electric devices, parts of electric devices and work with telecommunications.

BAC's website, which was accessed by [the Washington Post] before it was taken down on Wednesday, said its mission was to work "internationally as agents of change with a network of consultants". The site listed BAC's founder and CEO as Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono. The site said she studied in Britain at the London School of Economics, SOAS, and University College London, where she earned a Ph.D. in physics.

...NBC News said that when it reached a woman by that name by phone, she said "I don't make the pagers. I am just the intermediate. I think you got it wrong."

Yeah...if she's not a spy she might want to go into hiding. Although I think the Occam's Razor take is her and Gold Apollo were useful idiots for the Mossad agents that did work and knew no one above was watching what they were doing. I think they caught wind of purchase orders that went out and nailed these during manufacturing.

But think about warfare has changed in the past 2 days simply from being able to place bombs en masse into simple electronic devices and how everyone uses tons of handheld electronic devices, including mass numbers of civilians.

[statquo]

Hezbollah hand-held radios detonate across Lebanon in second day of explosions

BEIRUT, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Hand-held radios used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah detonated on Wednesday across Lebanon's south, in Beirut suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, further stoking tensions with Israel a day after similar explosions by the group's pagers.

Lebanon's health ministry said 14 people had been killed and 450 injured on Wednesday, while the death toll from Tuesday's explosions rose to 12, including two children, with nearly 3,000 injured.

At least one of Wednesday's blasts took place near a funeral organised by Iran-backed Hezbollah for those killed the previous day when thousands of pagers used by the group exploded across the country and wounded many of its fighters.

A Reuters reporter in the southern suburbs of Beirut said he saw Hezbollah members frantically taking batteries out of any walkie-talkies on them that had not exploded, tossing the parts in metal barrels.

Lebanon's Red Cross said on X that it was responding with 30 ambulance teams to multiple explosions in different areas, including the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The Israeli military said warning sirens sounded a number of times in northern Israel but there were no reports of any damage or casualties.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday the centre of gravity of the war was moving north, where Lebanon borders Israel, with more troops and resources being transferred to the area.

"We are opening a new phase in the war. It requires courage, determination and perseverance from us," he said, in remarks at an air force base.

Images of the exploded walkie-talkies examined by Reuters showed an inside panel labelled "ICOM" and "made in Japan."

According to its website, ICOM is a Japan-based radio communications and telephone company.

The company has said that production of several models of the ICOM hand-held radio have been discontinued, including the IC-V82, which appeared to closely match those in images from Lebanon on Wednesday and which was phased out in 2014.

There was no immediate reply from ICOM to a request for comment on Wednesday.

DEVICES BOUGHT FIVE MONTHS AGO

The hand-held radios were purchased by Hezbollah five months ago, around the same time as the pagers, a security source said.

Israel's spy agency Mossad, which has a long history of sophisticated operations on foreign soil, planted explosives inside pagers imported by Hezbollah months before Tuesday's detonations, a senior Lebanese security source and another source told Reuters.

Hezbollah, which was thrown briefly into disarray by the pager attacks, said on Wednesday it had attacked Israeli artillery positions with rockets, the first strike at its arch-foe since the blasts, which raised the prospect of a wider Middle East war.

Israel's military has declined to comment on the blasts.

Tuesday's attack wounded many of the militant group's fighters and Iran's envoy to Beirut.

Frontline workers described hellish scenes: victims of thousands of small explosions linked to pagers used by Hezbollah rushed into hospitals, some with organs protruding, others with missing eyes or fingers.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk called for an independent investigation into the events surrounding exploding pagers.

The United Nations Security Council will meet on Friday over the pager blasts after a request from Algeria on behalf of Arab states, said Slovenia's U.N. Ambassador Samuel Zbogar, president of the 15-member council for September.

Taiwanese pager maker Gold Apollo denied that it had produced the pagers. It said the devices were made under licence by a company called BAC, based in Hungary's capital Budapest.
Hungary on Wednesday said the devices had never been in the country and that authorities had established that BAC was a trading-intermediary company with no manufacturing or operations in Hungary.

RETALIATION

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel. The two sides have been engaged in cross-border warfare since the Gaza conflict erupted last October, fuelling fears of a wider Middle East war that could drag in the United States and Iran.

A full-blown war with Israel could devastate Lebanon, which has lurched from one crisis to another in recent years, including a 2019 financial collapse and the 2020 Beirut port blast.

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi accused Israel of pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war by orchestrating a dangerous escalation on many fronts.

"Hezbollah wants to avoid an all-out war. It still wants to avoid one. But given the scale, the impact on families, on civilians, there will be pressure for a stronger response," said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy in the Middle East, said in a statement it would continue to support Hamas in Gaza and Israel should await a response to the pager "massacre" which left fighters and others bloodied, hospitalised or dead.

One Hezbollah official said the detonation was the group's "biggest security breach" in its history.

The plot appears to have been many months in the making, several sources told Reuters. It followed a series of assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and leaders ascribed to Israel since the start of the Gaza war.

Hezbollah had turned to pagers and other low-tech communications devices in an attempt to evade Israeli surveillance of mobile phones.

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[rj1]

I don't think BiBi can be pressured at this time. Remember he is the guy who basically turned a blind eye to the parents who lost their children recently when executed by Hamas in the tunnels. He was pretty much saying to others not to worry as we will hunt them down and eliminate them yet nothing about saving anyone first.

With all due respect that's a bullsh*t response. That would be like saying "I don't think Mohamed bin Salman can be pressured at this time" when the Saudi royal family are dependent on American money and defense infrastructure to stay in power. We need politicians with the balls to turn the spigots off. If not, then the vassal states are the ones controlling us, not us controlling the vassal states. (And on that front, there's years' worth of work and research that need to go into foreign lobbying organizations of politicians. We know the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was bought off. You can also include the Mayor of New York City and Congressman Cuellar of Texas where known concrete evidence exists.)

[tbm3fan]

Call me crazy but I'm not thrilled with American foreign policy in the Levant region being controlled by the Prime Minister of Israel as it is currently. I think if Harris wins, we'll get more of the same. Trump in contrast can either support it whole hog (as opposed to support it by fact silently as Biden is by doing nothing) or will be an asshole to Netanyahu and force Netanyahu to quit. The end result if this continues unchecked is we'll get drawn into another war in the region when our vassal state bites off more than they can chew. That's not outside the realm of possibility, because if Israel go into southern Lebanon that's a war of choice.

I don't think BiBi can be pressured at this time. Remember he is the guy who basically turned a blind eye to the parents who lost their children recently when executed by Hamas in the tunnels. He was pretty much saying to others not to worry as we will hunt them down and eliminate them yet nothing about saving anyone first.

[rj1]

That's pretty much been the calculation in Israel since shortly after it's foundation. The only difference now is they're prepared to openly flaunt their de-facto immunity from consequences in the face of whoever is sitting in the White House should that person be so imprudent as lay down conditions for continued US support that they disagree with. Which IMO is really more a measure of the current Israeli government's desperation than it is of weakness on the part of the current US government. Bi BI is gambling on short term pain in US/Israeli relations in favor of long term gain.

Call me crazy but I'm not thrilled with American foreign policy in the Levant region being controlled by the Prime Minister of Israel as it is currently. I think if Harris wins, we'll get more of the same. Trump in contrast can either support it whole hog (as opposed to support it by fact silently as Biden is by doing nothing) or will be an asshole to Netanyahu and force Netanyahu to quit. The end result if this continues unchecked is we'll get drawn into another war in the region when our vassal state bites off more than they can chew. That's not outside the realm of possibility, because if Israel go into southern Lebanon that's a war of choice.

[Monash]

They've obviously made the calculation no one else matters as long as the Americans have their backs.

That's pretty much been the calculation in Israel since shortly after it's foundation. The only difference now is they're prepared to openly flaunt their de-facto immunity from consequences in the face of whoever is sitting in the White House should that person be so imprudent as lay down conditions for continued US support that they disagree with. Which IMO is really more a measure of the current Israeli government's desperation than it is of weakness on the part of the current US government. Bi BI is gambling on short term pain in US/Israeli relations in favor of long term gain.

[rj1]

Yep, when this current round of fighting ends? It will take Israel years to undo the reputational damage it's suffered in the the West especially but also around the world in general.

They've obviously made the calculation no one else matters as long as the Americans have their backs.

[Monash]

Amazes me how much the Israelis are acting like the Russians. "We're doing this. We don't give a sh*t if you don't like it and how we're destroying geopolitical norms." Tell me any other country in the world that would bomb embassies and ambassadors other than the Axis of Evil types? Meanwhile Biden sits there like a castrated eunuch.

Say Harris wins in 6 weeks. What's changing here? Clearly Blinken is out the door. His diplomacy has not resulted in anything positive based on what our administration says they want to have happen. He was successful with Ukraine but the Middle East the past year has been a complete failure.

Yep, when this current round of fighting ends? It will take Israel years to undo the reputational damage it's suffered in the the West especially but also around the world in general. And that's if it can be repaired at all which is possible if Israel starts mass expulsions of Palestinians from the region and gives a big 'f you' to any government or organization that objects or tries to interfere. Hell it wouldn't surprise me if it has already got to the point where sanctions might be being talked about (quietly) in some circles - particularly in Europe.

In fairness to Blinken though Bi Bi is not going to listen to anyone because his political survival is on the line and both men know the pro-Israel lobby in the US means there are few if any direct threats he can make if the Israeli's don't want to play ball, which for the time being until they win on their terms? They won't. And even if Harris wins? That equation is not going to change much unless the Dems also manage to carry the day in both houses with a clear majority. And what are the chances of that?

[rj1]

Amazes me how much the Israelis are acting like the Russians. "We're doing this. We don't give a sh*t if you don't like it and how we're destroying geopolitical norms." Tell me any other country in the world that would bomb embassies and ambassadors other than the Axis of Evil types? Meanwhile Biden sits there like a castrated eunuch.

Say Harris wins in 6 weeks. What's changing here? Clearly Blinken is out the door. His diplomacy has not resulted in anything positive based on what our administration says they want to have happen. He was successful with Ukraine but the Middle East the past year has been a complete failure.

[Amled]

A wave of exploding pagers in Lebanon and Syria kills at least 8, including members of Hezbollah


...Wow. James Bond stuff on a mass scale.

It’s an axiom that not only modern warfare; but also modern terrorism, is highly dependent on communication!
So what are terrorists going to do in the future?
Land lines can be tapped! Cell phones can be tapped and traced! And now pagers can be rigged to explode on command!
Well, there’s always old school…carrier pigions?

[statquo]

A wave of exploding pagers in Lebanon and Syria kills at least 8, including members of Hezbollah

BEIRUT -

Hundreds of handheld pagers exploded near simultaneously across Lebanon and in parts of Syria on Tuesday, killing at least eight people, including members of the militant group Hezbollah and a girl, and wounding the Iranian ambassador, government and Hezbollah officials said.

Officials pointed the finger at Israel in what appeared to be a sophisticated, remote attack that wounded more than 2,700 people at a time of rising tensions across the Lebanon border.

The Israeli military declined to comment.

A Hezbollah official who spoke on condition of anonymity told The Associated Press that the new brand of handheld pagers used by the group first heated up, then exploded, killing at least two of its members and wounding others.

Lebanon's health minister, Firas Abiad, said at least eight people were killed and 2,750 wounded -- 200 of them critically.

Iranian state-run IRNA news agency said that the country's ambassador, Mojtaba Amani, was superficially wounded by an exploding pager and was being treated at a hospital.

Photos and videos from Beirut's southern suburbs circulating on social media and in local media showed people lying on the pavement with wounds on their hands or near their pants pockets.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah previously warned the group's members not to carry cellphones, saying that they could be used by Israel to track their movements and to carry out targeted strikes.

Lebanon's Health Ministry called on all hospitals to be on alert to take in emergency patients and for people who own pagers to get away from them. It also asked health workers to avoid using wireless devices.

AP photographers at area hospitals said the emergency rooms were overloaded with patients, many of them with injuries to their limbs, some in serious condition.

The state-run National News Agency said hospitals in southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley and Beirut's southern suburbs -- all areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence -- had called on people to donate blood of all types.

The news agency reported that in Beirut's southern suburbs and other areas "the handheld pagers system was detonated using advanced technology, and dozens of injuries were reported."

The Hezbollah official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media said the explosions were the result of "a security operation that targeted the devices."

"The enemy (Israel) stands behind this security incident," the official said, without elaborating. He added that the new pagers that Hezbollah members were carrying had lithium batteries that apparently exploded.

Lithium batteries, when overheated, can smoke, melt and even catch on fire. Rechargeable lithium batteries are used in consumer products ranging from cellphones and laptops to electric cars. Lithium battery fires can burn up to 590 C (1,100 F).

The incident comes at a time of heightened tensions between Lebanon and Israel. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been clashing near-daily for more than 11 months against the backdrop of war between Israel and Hezbollah ally Hamas in Gaza.

The clashes have killed hundreds in Lebanon and dozens in Israel and displaced tens of thousands on both sides of the border. On Tuesday, Israel said that halting Hezbollah's attacks in the north to allow residents to return to their homes is now an official war goal.

Israel has killed Hamas militants in the past with booby trapped cellphones and it's widely believed to have been behind the Stuxnet computer virus attack on Iran's nuclear program in 2010.

———————————————-

Wow. James Bond stuff on a mass scale.

[tbm3fan]

Defense secretary orders submarine to Middle East, accelerates arrival of strike group ahead of anticipated Iran attack

CNN —
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East and accelerated the arrival of a carrier strike group to the region ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack against Israel, the Pentagon said in a statement Sunday evening.

The USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine armed with cruise missiles, was operating in the Mediterranean Sea in recent days, according to the Navy, having just completed training near Italy.

Austin ordered the submarine into the waters of the Middle East, the Pentagon said. The movement of US missile submarines is rarely revealed publicly, and the nuclear-powered vessels operate in near-complete secrecy.

The announcement of a submarine’s movement is a clear message of deterrence to Iran and its proxies, who the US and Israel believe are preparing for a potential large-scale attack on Israel.

The looming Iranian attack would come in response to Israel last month killing the top military commander for Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon. The next day, Israel is widely believed to have assassinated Hamas’ political leader in Tehran, which Israel has not admitted to carrying out.

The Israel Defense Forces reported Sunday evening that around 30 rockets were launched from Lebanon, though some fell into open areas and no injuries were reported. Hezbollah said overnight that the rockets were in support of “steadfast Palestinian people” in Gaza and in retaliation to Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.

Austin’s announcement came in a readout of a call between the defense secretary and his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant. The two spoke about “efforts to deter aggression by Iran, Lebanese Hizballah, and other Iran-aligned groups across the region,” the readout said.

Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to accelerate its transit to the Middle East, the Pentagon said. The defense secretary had ordered the Lincoln strike group to the Middle East on August 2, but its ships carried out port calls in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands along the way, according to the Navy.

The Lincoln strike group consists of the carrier, which operates with stealth F-35C fighter jets, as well as several destroyers.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group has been operating in the waters of the Middle East for several weeks, giving the US a formidable presence in the region. The USS Wasp amphibious ready group, which includes a force of thousands of Marines capable of special operations, is already operating in the Mediterranean Sea.

[Monash]

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.



To quote yourself on another thread:



Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.

As far as I can see the 'long term' goal of the war was and is BiBi's political survival. Oh the initial invasion of Gaza was a direct response to Hamas's attack all right but his stated goal for continuing the campaign this long i.e 'the destruction of Hamas? Was and is BS because it was and never will be achievable by military force - and he knows it! He could just have easily have said the aim was to destroy religion or politics or any other abstract human idea.

The only way to destroy Hamas? Would be to radically reconfigure the Palestinian/Israeli politics and negotiate some kind of outcome acceptable to the majority of people on both sides. Then let time pass. And if that was difficult before this war it's impossible now.

[tbm3fan]

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.



To quote yourself on another thread:



Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.

I'm no Bibi fan at all but this conflict is self-perpetuating. As long as there is a hardliner like Bibi there will always be a Hamas. As long as there is a Hamas there will always be a Bibi. This dog is chasing it's tail never to catch it and never to stop.

[rj1]

That's a huge capital investment to sort out a (relatively) minor problem.

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.

Since Israel built the 'wall' there's been very few if any (that I can recall) really successful infiltration's from Gaza into Israel via tunnels by Hamas. Some yes but nothing worth the (billions?)required for a canal. Instead almost all of their tunneling efforts seem to have gone into smuggling tunnels across the border into Egypt. In any event if the ultimate aim of BiBi really is to conquer, occupy and then expel all Gazans? Canals are superfluous. That said where he'd expel them to is the 64 million dollar question. No one will say 'yes', so what doe's he do then?

I reality? When the last bomb drops? The world will be left with a fucked up Gaza, the Israeli army withdrawing back to (more or less) its original borders and the Gazan's living in poverty/misery while it all resets for round 2 (or is it 4, 5 or 6?) a generation or so from now.

To quote yourself on another thread:

There are other points I could raise but the point is by every metric I can think of Russia has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. The point being I believe the true measure of victory is determined by comparing what any one combatant actually sought to achieve at the onset of hostilities to what they actually manage to achieve by the end. And by that measure (barring a collapse of Ukrainian resistance) Ukraine has and will win a great victory.

Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.