2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[rj1]

I don't know which Taiwanese official CNN talked to but their reporters clearly failed to navigate my country's bureaucratic waters. Just yesterday, prosecutors summoned the CEO of Golden Apollo and registered responsible person of BAC's Taiwan branch. The National Police Agency's national security unit is involved. This is gonna be good.

so what happened?

[statquo]

Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah killed in Israeli air strike in Beirut.

Israelis delivering body blow after body blow to Hezbollah

Iran saying their Deputy Commander of the IRGC killed in the strike too

[Monash]

Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah killed in Israeli air strike in Beirut.

Israelis delivering body blow after body blow to Hezbollah

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off it's leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst it's fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

[Amled]

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off it's leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst it's fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

…to be met with an equally new resilient and resolute Israeli opposition! (Preferably with the aging and corrupt Netanyahu still behind bars!!! )
A state of affairs that will continue until both sides accept some hard facts.
Israel the fact of a two states; well maybe a three states solution! As Pakistan back in the day showed that a state divided in two, separated by a hostile state was non-viable.
The Palestinians the fact that Israel is there to stay! And to give up on their Covenant that calls for the destruction of Israel, and the death to all Jew anywhere!
Failing that, the whole misère will just keep on down the years!

[statquo]

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off its leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst its fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

That’s why they’re body blows and not knockouts. They’re recoverable. They’ll come back.

Israelis launching mass air strikes on the Houthis now

[tbm3fan]

…to be met with an equally new resilient and resolute Israeli opposition! (Preferably with the aging and corrupt Netanyahu still behind bars!!! )
A state of affairs that will continue until both sides accept some hard facts.
Israel the fact of a two states; well maybe a three states solution! As Pakistan back in the day showed that a state divided in two, separated by a hostile state was non-viable.
The Palestinians the fact that Israel is there to stay! And to give up on their Covenant that calls for the destruction of Israel, and the death to all Jew anywhere!
Failing that, the whole misère will just keep on down the years!

Never going to end...

[rj1]

Israelis earlier today struck a port and power plants in Yemen they say is controlled by the Houthis.

Some thoughts:

1. Israel are now daring Iran to do something or be humiliated by doing nothing. And post-exploding pagers I less believe the death of the Iranian president in a helicopter crash was by accident.
2. I don't see any difference between what Israel is doing here and what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Both conflicts are the dominant power seeking geopolitical security on their terms, and in their own way are showing the post-World War II operating paradigm for international affairs is dead which is something the West does not want ending.
3. The October 7th attack I'm starting to view like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand where it gave the Austrians the excuse to do what they wanted to do to Serbia.
4. The Biden administration at least in this conflict has been shown to be completely impotent. Last Wednesday they were trumpeting a 21-day ceasefire agreement...and Israel kill Nasrallah almost immediately after which in diplomatic affairs between allies is a pretty big FU.

[Monash]

Israelis earlier today struck a port and power plants in Yemen they say is controlled by the Houthis.

Some thoughts:

1. Israel are now daring Iran to do something or be humiliated by doing nothing. And post-exploding pagers I less believe the death of the Iranian president in a helicopter crash was by accident.
2. I don't see any difference between what Israel is doing here and what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Both conflicts are the dominant power seeking geopolitical security on their terms, and in their own way are showing the post-World War II operating paradigm for international affairs is dead which is something the West does not want ending.
3. The October 7th attack I'm starting to view like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand where it gave the Austrians the excuse to do what they wanted to do to Serbia.
4. The Biden administration at least in this conflict has been shown to be completely impotent. Last Wednesday they were trumpeting a 21-day ceasefire agreement...and Israel kill Nasrallah almost immediately after which in diplomatic affairs between allies is a pretty big FU.

On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.

[rj1]

On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.

So we have a foreign state via their proxies controlling our democratic process that gives them millions of dollars in aid including military paid for by American taxpayers is what you're saying?

Can you see how that makes a citizen cynical? Menendez was convicted of being bought by Egyptian and Qatari interests. Cuellar is under suspicion by the Feds of working for the Azerbaijanis. The Mayor of New York City Eric Adams is under indictment for helping out the Turks. A Cabinet Undersecretary just got outted for being a Chinese spy. Those are all small potatoes compared to this. How many people in Congress are serving a foreign state as well as our state, all under the guise of diaspora campaign donations? How about the State Department? The Defense Department? Our intelligence agencies?

The Arabs are hardly good people here by and large. But we're getting played by our ally that for the past year have not been acting like an ally. This is a full fledged wider war at this point, Israel are striking locations in 3 separate sovereign countries not counting Gaza, and we're getting drawn into a war we don't want to be in because American diplomacy has largely failed. Meanwhile no one says sh*t because they don't want to help Trump win by pointing out Biden, Blinken, Sullivan have completely failed on this, Biden's reduced mental state that led to the Democrats dumping him from the ticket hardly helping matters, and what would President Harris do differently from Biden in regards to the Middle East? I have no effing idea.

I do have a notion of one if not both major wars going on in the world will change somehow post-election, but it's kind of unsettling that thousands of people every day are dying just due to waiting on our election result seeing how that changes the status quo. But the post-World War II Era of Geopolitics that Biden was fighting so hard to keep going is finally over in my opinion. Trump wants nothing to deal with it and I don't think Harris has any real love or desire to fight for it how Biden has.

[statquo]

Was watching coverage of the shooting in Tel Aviv and then ended up watching live the Iranian missile attack. Wow. Still ongoing.

[Monash]

So we have a foreign state via their proxies controlling our democratic process that gives them millions of dollars in aid including military paid for by American taxpayers is what you're saying? ....

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

[tbm3fan]

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

That is correct and with Netanyahu's popularity now at a high point he is in a position not to give a damn what the U.S. thinks. Notice also that any talk about hostages has disappeared despite around 94, give or take, still held. Netanyahu is in the cat bird seat right now and screw everyone else. He probably knows Iran doesn't want to war with him even when he hits back. Hezbollah doesn't want to war with him either due to the cost to them. He has the upper hand at this time...

[rj1]

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

Yeah, that is all a crime unless they register as Foreign Agents. Foreign Agents Registration Act - Wikipedia

And I'm pretty confident if investigate journalists dug into it with all these various diaspora organizations funneling money into politics from multiple countries to both parties there's massive money laundering going on, because non-U.S. citizens are barred from donating directly into politics.

[tbm3fan]

Well I think we can all conclude any kind of a cease fire is off the table now. Hezbollah, Iran's forward based proxy, has been hurt badly. The Lincoln is being extended in the region and Truman is rushing over to join. Iran made a mistake with that missile barrage. The next tit for tat is going to be on a magnitude much higher than "you hit me I hit you twice as hard." The question being what is Iran going to lose?

[Monash]

Yeah, that is all a crime unless they register as Foreign Agents. Foreign Agents Registration Act - Wikipedia

And I'm pretty confident if investigate journalists dug into it with all these various diaspora organizations funneling money into politics from multiple countries to both parties there's massive money laundering going on, because non-U.S. citizens are barred from donating directly into politics.

It's not that simple. Your not a 'foreign agent' for example if your a Chinese/American, (born in the US) who imports machinery from China and whose bottom line is going to be badly impacted if the US decides to raise tariffs on Chinese goods appreciably and your response is to lobby against that increase. Does it matter if the Chinese Government is in favor of what your doing? No. Does it matter if the Chinese Government pays you to do it? Yes.

Same with American's of Jewish decent who lobby for continued military support for Israel. Especially since they can count on their efforts being amplified by the Christian fundamentalist lobby who quite frankly they seem to be adept at playing like a cheap violin.