2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[tbm3fan]

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

That is correct and with Netanyahu's popularity now at a high point he is in a position not to give a damn what the U.S. thinks. Notice also that any talk about hostages has disappeared despite around 94, give or take, still held. Netanyahu is in the cat bird seat right now and screw everyone else. He probably knows Iran doesn't want to war with him even when he hits back. Hezbollah doesn't want to war with him either due to the cost to them. He has the upper hand at this time...

[Monash]

So we have a foreign state via their proxies controlling our democratic process that gives them millions of dollars in aid including military paid for by American taxpayers is what you're saying? ....

Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.

[statquo]

Was watching coverage of the shooting in Tel Aviv and then ended up watching live the Iranian missile attack. Wow. Still ongoing.

[rj1]

On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.

So we have a foreign state via their proxies controlling our democratic process that gives them millions of dollars in aid including military paid for by American taxpayers is what you're saying?

Can you see how that makes a citizen cynical? Menendez was convicted of being bought by Egyptian and Qatari interests. Cuellar is under suspicion by the Feds of working for the Azerbaijanis. The Mayor of New York City Eric Adams is under indictment for helping out the Turks. A Cabinet Undersecretary just got outted for being a Chinese spy. Those are all small potatoes compared to this. How many people in Congress are serving a foreign state as well as our state, all under the guise of diaspora campaign donations? How about the State Department? The Defense Department? Our intelligence agencies?

The Arabs are hardly good people here by and large. But we're getting played by our ally that for the past year have not been acting like an ally. This is a full fledged wider war at this point, Israel are striking locations in 3 separate sovereign countries not counting Gaza, and we're getting drawn into a war we don't want to be in because American diplomacy has largely failed. Meanwhile no one says sh*t because they don't want to help Trump win by pointing out Biden, Blinken, Sullivan have completely failed on this, Biden's reduced mental state that led to the Democrats dumping him from the ticket hardly helping matters, and what would President Harris do differently from Biden in regards to the Middle East? I have no effing idea.

I do have a notion of one if not both major wars going on in the world will change somehow post-election, but it's kind of unsettling that thousands of people every day are dying just due to waiting on our election result seeing how that changes the status quo. But the post-World War II Era of Geopolitics that Biden was fighting so hard to keep going is finally over in my opinion. Trump wants nothing to deal with it and I don't think Harris has any real love or desire to fight for it how Biden has.

[Monash]

Israelis earlier today struck a port and power plants in Yemen they say is controlled by the Houthis.

Some thoughts:

1. Israel are now daring Iran to do something or be humiliated by doing nothing. And post-exploding pagers I less believe the death of the Iranian president in a helicopter crash was by accident.
2. I don't see any difference between what Israel is doing here and what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Both conflicts are the dominant power seeking geopolitical security on their terms, and in their own way are showing the post-World War II operating paradigm for international affairs is dead which is something the West does not want ending.
3. The October 7th attack I'm starting to view like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand where it gave the Austrians the excuse to do what they wanted to do to Serbia.
4. The Biden administration at least in this conflict has been shown to be completely impotent. Last Wednesday they were trumpeting a 21-day ceasefire agreement...and Israel kill Nasrallah almost immediately after which in diplomatic affairs between allies is a pretty big FU.

On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.

[rj1]

Israelis earlier today struck a port and power plants in Yemen they say is controlled by the Houthis.

Some thoughts:

1. Israel are now daring Iran to do something or be humiliated by doing nothing. And post-exploding pagers I less believe the death of the Iranian president in a helicopter crash was by accident.
2. I don't see any difference between what Israel is doing here and what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Both conflicts are the dominant power seeking geopolitical security on their terms, and in their own way are showing the post-World War II operating paradigm for international affairs is dead which is something the West does not want ending.
3. The October 7th attack I'm starting to view like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand where it gave the Austrians the excuse to do what they wanted to do to Serbia.
4. The Biden administration at least in this conflict has been shown to be completely impotent. Last Wednesday they were trumpeting a 21-day ceasefire agreement...and Israel kill Nasrallah almost immediately after which in diplomatic affairs between allies is a pretty big FU.

[tbm3fan]

…to be met with an equally new resilient and resolute Israeli opposition! (Preferably with the aging and corrupt Netanyahu still behind bars!!! )
A state of affairs that will continue until both sides accept some hard facts.
Israel the fact of a two states; well maybe a three states solution! As Pakistan back in the day showed that a state divided in two, separated by a hostile state was non-viable.
The Palestinians the fact that Israel is there to stay! And to give up on their Covenant that calls for the destruction of Israel, and the death to all Jew anywhere!
Failing that, the whole misère will just keep on down the years!

Never going to end...

[statquo]

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off its leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst its fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

That’s why they’re body blows and not knockouts. They’re recoverable. They’ll come back.

Israelis launching mass air strikes on the Houthis now

[Amled]

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off it's leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst it's fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

…to be met with an equally new resilient and resolute Israeli opposition! (Preferably with the aging and corrupt Netanyahu still behind bars!!! )
A state of affairs that will continue until both sides accept some hard facts.
Israel the fact of a two states; well maybe a three states solution! As Pakistan back in the day showed that a state divided in two, separated by a hostile state was non-viable.
The Palestinians the fact that Israel is there to stay! And to give up on their Covenant that calls for the destruction of Israel, and the death to all Jew anywhere!
Failing that, the whole misère will just keep on down the years!

[Monash]

Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah killed in Israeli air strike in Beirut.

Israelis delivering body blow after body blow to Hezbollah

Body blow? Not really. Israel has killed off it's leadership before and inflicted huge casualties amongst it's fighters and support base in the past as well yet here we are (again). Ten years from now? Hezbollah and Hamas will be back with a shiny new senior leadership cadre. All Israel is really doing is recruiting a new generation of fighters for Hezbollah.

[statquo]

Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah killed in Israeli air strike in Beirut.

Israelis delivering body blow after body blow to Hezbollah

Iran saying their Deputy Commander of the IRGC killed in the strike too

[rj1]

I don't know which Taiwanese official CNN talked to but their reporters clearly failed to navigate my country's bureaucratic waters. Just yesterday, prosecutors summoned the CEO of Golden Apollo and registered responsible person of BAC's Taiwan branch. The National Police Agency's national security unit is involved. This is gonna be good.

so what happened?

[Triple C]

I don't know which Taiwanese official CNN talked to but their reporters clearly failed to navigate my country's bureaucratic waters. Just yesterday, prosecutors summoned the CEO of Golden Apollo and registered responsible person of BAC's Taiwan branch. The National Police Agency's national security unit is involved. This is gonna be good.

[rj1]

more pager fun.

The BAC Consulting of Hungary utilized a Bulgarian company Norta Global that are alleged to have directly sold to Hezbollah. North Global are linked to a company NortaLink owned by a Norwegian individual Rinson Jose.

https://www.rferl.org/a/hizballah-ex.../33126782.html

Rinson Jose, a Norwegian citizen born in 1985, does not have a significant online presence. His LinkedIn profile shows a background in business administration, with education in India and Oslo. His professional experience includes various business roles in Oslo, and he is registered on an entrepreneurial platform seeking partners and funding.

...

"Together with the National Revenue Agency, the Interior Ministry, and the Customs Agency, it was established beyond doubt that no communication devices were imported, exported, or manufactured in Bulgaria," the agency said.

Daily Mail story citing the Norwegians says he went on a pre-planned vacation Tuesday and his primary employer has been unable to contact him since. They've contacted Norwegian domestic intelligence.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ions-bomb.html

[rj1]

For more intrigue on who made the pagers:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/18/busin...irc_end_recirc

When it comes to things like this in business, ask for facts and receipts.

For example:

The production of pagers is highly regulated in Taiwan due to their transmission functions, with authorities conducting regular inspections, a senior Taiwanese security official told CNN on Wednesday.

Gold Apollo’s pagers had met all standards and nothing unusual was found, according to the official, who did not provide further details about the inspection.

Gold Apollo claimed in its statement that the AR924 pager was produced and sold by BAC, which was covered by a licensing agreement. The company has declined to show the contract to CNN.

And this:

Gold Apollo has been making a wide range of devices from pagers – wireless devices that can send messages without an internet connection commonly used by emergency services and hospitals – to buzzers used by restaurants since its 1995 founding, according to the company’s website.

It works with distributors around the world to sell its products, the firm said in a previous media report, once touting itself as one of the largest suppliers of walkie-talkies and pagers in the US and Europe and counting intelligence agencies and emergency services among its clients.

Hsu said that early in its relationship, the European partner only imported the Taiwanese company’s pager and communication products. Later, BAC told Gold Apollo it wished to make its own pagers and asked for the right to use its brand, he added.

Gold Apollo shipped about 260,000 pagers from the island, mostly to the United States and Australia, between the start of 2022 to August 2024, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Gold Apollo [after 2011] dominated pager markets in Western countries, the magazine reported. Most of the demand for its pagers came from intelligence agencies, firefighting services and defense departments in the US and Europe, including the FBI, the report said.

First, the notion of a distributor going to the manufacturer and IP holder saying "hey, we want to instead make the pager", I don't buy that in the slightest. They have zero infrastructure, that's why they're a distributor. Second, the notion of IP holder that I presume has most if not all of global market share allowing someone else to manufacture under a license is bizarre. Yeah, there's cost reduction reasons, but cost reduction from Taiwan to presumably Eastern Europe? Wouldn't you just do China or Southeast Asia? And then you're also giving someone else the know-how and perhaps those same people then sell the know-how to make those pagers to a business in Mainland China, because Lord knows that's only happened a thousand times before, therefore destroying Gold Apollo's market share.

My gut take is both here are guilty. BAC Consulting never made a pager. Think that's pretty clear. I think BAC Consulting was setup to provide a white glove or plausible deniability to Gold Apollo for them to sell products to people like Hezbollah that Gold Apollo were likely frowned upon from dealing with directly. It wouldn't surprise me if BAC Consulting had similar operations setup with other nefarious individuals and organizations. If you look at resumes that have propped up of the BAC Consulting indivdual, there's too much BS in there (she worked for the European Commission, she worked for UNESCO, she worked for the IAEA, she worked in hydrology, she has this consulting business while being a physics Ph.D., etc. For Gold Apollo, if there actually was this 2nd factory to build these under license, they know where that factory is and have yet to state it when it's heavily in their interest to do so. Otherwise, how are they doing quality control on all their branded products during manufacturing processes?

So Gold Apollo manufactured the pagers, turning a blind eye to where they ended up, BAC Consulting likely was the conduit to pass them on from Gold Apollo to whoever was really buying them for Hezbollah. Which points to either Mossad infiltration at Gold Apollo (and every other pager they've made is plausibly a threat) or somewhere during shipping the shipment got picked up and manipulated unknowingly.

Also notice above it says Gold Apollo manufactures walkie talkies.