2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[statquo]

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran

[rj1]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ns-2024-07-28/

[SIZE=16px][FONT=Times New Roman]We haven’t heard from Erdogan of Turkey for a while, so one can only hope that his latest announcement is simply a cry for attention.
He has intimated that Turkey is thinking about “entering Israel” to intervene on behalf of the Palestinians. Similar to the way they intervened in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Well they never entered Nagorno-Karabakh, they just helped the Azeris. A better example for you is northern Syria where there's still land there that the Turks are running and administrating with their civilian government and at this point is de facto part of Turkey (no different than the Golan Heights for Israel really).

How big a deal were these incidents: "A pair of IDF military bases saw riots by right-wing Israelis, including apparently sitting members of the Israeli parliament, over reports of IDF soldiers being arrested on accusations of having abused a Palestinian detainee."

[Amled]

Fuad Shukr the Hezbollah terrorist leader responsible for the rocket attack that killed 13 young boys and children playing soccer on a sports field,
was himself killed when an Israeli rocket took his life.
Proportionality, I don’t think so, not even close!
One dead terrorist, for thirteen young children who had their lives cut short.
If asked, I think that the parents and family of the boys would agree!

[Monash]

All the info I'm seeing makes it look like BiBi decided unilaterally to end any possibility of a negotiated settlement (thereby extending the war indefinitely) by arranging for the execution Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Haniyeh was apparently a central figure in ongoing peace negotiations. If this assessment is true what a big 'fuck you' that is to the current US administration (and the rest of the West) as they attempt to try and negotiate a peace deal. At the same time he appeases his hard line backers at home and delays any chance of him losing office and going to jail! What can Biden or Harris do? Nothing. He knows he has the support of the pro Israel lobby in the US welded in place.

[rj1]

All the info I'm seeing makes it look like BiBi decided unilaterally to end any possibility of a negotiated settlement (thereby extending the war indefinitely) by arranging for the execution Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Haniyeh was apparently a central figure in ongoing peace negotiations. If this assessment is true what a big 'fuck you' that is to the current US administration (and the rest of the West) as they attempt to try and negotiate a peace deal. At the same time he appeases his hard line backers at home and delays any chance of him losing office and going to jail! What can Biden or Harris do? Nothing. He knows he has the support of the pro Israel lobby in the US welded in place.

I've thought for awhile he's made the calculation of it's in his best interest to keep this conflict going until after the U.S. election.

[Monash]

I've thought for awhile he's made the calculation of it's in his best interest to keep this conflict going until after the U.S. election.

Agreed. In this instance he's like Putin. Both have calculated that their best chance for political survival lies in Trump winning the coming election. Putin? Because he believes Trump will withdraw US support for Ukraine (even though the EU will maintain it). BiBi? Because he thinks Trump, unlike Harris will double down on continuing US support for Isreal's war in Gaza.

[rj1]

Agreed. In this instance he's like Putin. Both have calculated that their best chance for political survival lies in Trump winning the coming election. Putin? Because he believes Trump will withdraw US support for Ukraine (even though the EU will maintain it). BiBi? Because he thinks Trump, unlike Harris will double down on continuing US support for Isreal's war in Gaza.

I don't think Netanyahu's goal is political survival. I think his goal is a by fact annexation of land that will act as a large buffer strip of land to protect Israel from future attacks, i.e. do in Gaza what they did in the Golan Heights which is de jure Syrian territory that is for all intents and purposes incorporated land inside Israel no different than Crimea is in Russia. And Netanyahu believes Trump will agree to that. Meanwhile the Palestinians and the Syrians are militarily incapable of doing anything to Israel to stop this. If Israel wanted to do this unilaterally, they could and we've learned that outside of saber-rattling by the Iranians and their proxies the rest of the world will go along with it. If Netanyahu could accomplish that, any mention of his failure of leadership on October 7th would be counterbalanced with increasing Israel's territory de facto to stop future attacks from occurring (if that indeed becomes the case).

[statquo]

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran by bomb planted months before blast, source says

Haifa, Israel - Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on Wednesday using an explosive device that had been covertly hidden in the guest house where he was staying, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.

According to the source, who had been briefed on the operation, the bomb was concealed about two months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay in Tehran and detonated remotely once he was inside his room there.

The Iranian government and Hamas say Israel carried out the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

US officials were briefed on the operation by Israeli officials only after the assassination, the source said.

The New York Times was the first to report the details of Haniyeh’s assassination.

Iranian state media and Hamas previously indicated Haniyeh was killed by a rocket fired from outside the building.

But the revelation that a bomb was smuggled inside the guest house, which was under the protection of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicates a startling breach of security for the IRGC.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday: “You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.”

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[rj1]

Red alert out there for enlarged conflict.

[Monash]

I don't think Netanyahu's goal is political survival. I think his goal is a by fact annexation of land that will act as a large buffer strip of land to protect Israel from future attacks, i.e. do in Gaza what they did in the Golan Heights which is de jure Syrian territory that is for all intents and purposes incorporated land inside Israel no different than Crimea is in Russia. And Netanyahu believes Trump will agree to that. Meanwhile the Palestinians and the Syrians are militarily incapable of doing anything to Israel to stop this. If Israel wanted to do this unilaterally, they could and we've learned that outside of saber-rattling by the Iranians and their proxies the rest of the world will go along with it. If Netanyahu could accomplish that, any mention of his failure of leadership on October 7th would be counterbalanced with increasing Israel's territory de facto to stop future attacks from occurring (if that indeed becomes the case).

I don't really see Gaza as a useful 'buffer', it's too small and faces the ocean. The Golan Heights makes military sense because it acts or rather did act as a trip wire in the event of a war with Syria. Any Syrian forces crossing into the Israeli occupied territory are automatically fair game before they reach the border. Gaza? To me it makes more sense that Netanyahu's main goal remains Netanyahu and his calculation is that he achieves this best by pandering to the far right who do want to a) expand Israels territory (if ever possible back to Biblical size) and b) expel all non-Jews from Israel (which description IMO in the minds of his far right/ultra conservative supporters also increasingly seems to include secular Israeli Jews.)

I very much hope I'm wrong about all of this BTW but part of me fears I'm right.

[rj1]

I don't really see Gaza as a useful 'buffer', it's too small and faces the ocean. The Golan Heights makes military sense because it acts or rather did act as a trip wire in the event of a war with Syria. Any Syrian forces crossing into the Israeli occupied territory are automatically fair game before they reach the border. Gaza?

If you dig a canal to the Mediterranean going across Gaza at the buffer zone border because Gaza is small and faces the ocean, there's your more defensible line and the canal would prevent any tunnel networks from Gaza going into Israel. That's my admittedly back of a napkin idea.

[Monash]

If you dig a canal to the Mediterranean going across Gaza at the buffer zone border because Gaza is small and faces the ocean, there's your more defensible line and the canal would prevent any tunnel networks from Gaza going into Israel. That's my admittedly back of a napkin idea.

That's a huge capital investment to sort out a (relatively) minor problem. Since Israel built the 'wall' there's been very few if any (that I can recall) really successful infiltration's from Gaza into Israel via tunnels by Hamas. Some yes but nothing worth the (billions?)required for a canal. Instead almost all of their tunneling efforts seem to have gone into smuggling tunnels across the border into Egypt. In any event if the ultimate aim of BiBi really is to conquer, occupy and then expel all Gazans? Canals are superfluous. That said where he'd expel them to is the 64 million dollar question. No one will say 'yes', so what doe's he do then?

I reality? When the last bomb drops? The world will be left with a fucked up Gaza, the Israeli army withdrawing back to (more or less) its original borders and the Gazan's living in poverty/misery while it all resets for round 2 (or is it 4, 5 or 6?) a generation or so from now.

[rj1]

That's a huge capital investment to sort out a (relatively) minor problem.

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.

Since Israel built the 'wall' there's been very few if any (that I can recall) really successful infiltration's from Gaza into Israel via tunnels by Hamas. Some yes but nothing worth the (billions?)required for a canal. Instead almost all of their tunneling efforts seem to have gone into smuggling tunnels across the border into Egypt. In any event if the ultimate aim of BiBi really is to conquer, occupy and then expel all Gazans? Canals are superfluous. That said where he'd expel them to is the 64 million dollar question. No one will say 'yes', so what doe's he do then?

I reality? When the last bomb drops? The world will be left with a fucked up Gaza, the Israeli army withdrawing back to (more or less) its original borders and the Gazan's living in poverty/misery while it all resets for round 2 (or is it 4, 5 or 6?) a generation or so from now.

To quote yourself on another thread:

There are other points I could raise but the point is by every metric I can think of Russia has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. The point being I believe the true measure of victory is determined by comparing what any one combatant actually sought to achieve at the onset of hostilities to what they actually manage to achieve by the end. And by that measure (barring a collapse of Ukrainian resistance) Ukraine has and will win a great victory.

Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.

[tbm3fan]

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.



To quote yourself on another thread:



Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.

I'm no Bibi fan at all but this conflict is self-perpetuating. As long as there is a hardliner like Bibi there will always be a Hamas. As long as there is a Hamas there will always be a Bibi. This dog is chasing it's tail never to catch it and never to stop.

[Monash]

We're 10 months into this war, I don't think it's a minor problem according to Israeli leadership.



To quote yourself on another thread:



Netanyahu at the onset of hostilities and after has called for the complete elimination of Hamas and for another October 7th-type attack to never be able to happen again. The latter is one of those things that can only get proven out in time - if Hamas makes a successful operation inside Israel in the year 2031, then Israel failed here per Netanyahu's stated goals. But if Hamas still exists at the end of this conflict and eventually builds back to being capable of conducting an operation in the future, then Israel has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. Meanwhile it's completely isolated internationally barring the U.S. and its close allies and global sympathy for the recognition of a Palestinian state has only grown from this conflict. And do we really know what Kamala Harris or the next generation of American leadership in both parties think on the matter, so if American leadership start having misgivings about what Israel is doing, where are the Israelis going to turn?

Under that context, a canal can look like a good idea.

As far as I can see the 'long term' goal of the war was and is BiBi's political survival. Oh the initial invasion of Gaza was a direct response to Hamas's attack all right but his stated goal for continuing the campaign this long i.e 'the destruction of Hamas? Was and is BS because it was and never will be achievable by military force - and he knows it! He could just have easily have said the aim was to destroy religion or politics or any other abstract human idea.

The only way to destroy Hamas? Would be to radically reconfigure the Palestinian/Israeli politics and negotiate some kind of outcome acceptable to the majority of people on both sides. Then let time pass. And if that was difficult before this war it's impossible now.