2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[rj1]

First, the thread title needs updated to account for going into a 2nd calendar year.

I was kind of wondering why the DoD didn't go with a more 'permanent' structure rather than a floating dock. Nothing fancy just a few piles with some spans bolted on and a road bed off the beach. Something good enough to hold up for a couple of years at most under steady use. The Isrealis would just blow it up once it wasn't being used by the US anyway so its not like it would become a permanent asset for the Gazans.

As I said just wandering out loud since I have zero knowledge of the practicalities, no critism intended.

Being permanently abandoned. It served a grand total of 10 days at a cost of $230 million, plus whatever costs we incur removing it.

My two cents: if Israel conduct offensive operations in Lebanon, it's Netanyahu's goal in my opinion to ensure Biden loses reelection, because any decision Biden makes he loses votes and it ensures this conflict continues until the election.

[Monash]

First, the thread title needs updated to account for going into a 2nd calendar year.



Being permanently abandoned. It served a grand total of 10 days at a cost of $230 million, plus whatever costs we incur removing it.

My two cents: if Israel conduct offensive operations in Lebanon, it's Netanyahu's goal in my opinion to ensure Biden loses reelection, because any decision Biden makes he loses votes and it ensures this conflict continues until the election.

Possible I suppose. Netanyahu's desperate to stay in office and this war is the only thing keeping him there. Your theory depends on him being able to extend the war until November which is doable. However it also depends on the war being a major issue/vote mover for a significant minority of US voters. IMO most of the conservative evangelical types who are wedded to Isreal's cause are in Trump's camp already so it's anyone's guess I would say as to whether your right or not.

[rj1]

Possible I suppose. Netanyahu's desperate to stay in office and this war is the only thing keeping him there. Your theory depends on him being able to extend the war until November which is doable I would guess. However it also depends on the war being a major issue/vote mover for a significant minority of US voters. IMO most of the conservative evangelical types who are wedded to Isreal's cause are in Trump's camp already so it's anyone's guess I would say as to whether your right or not.

Israelis can easily keep this going another 5 months. One cross-border attack they've already gotten 10 out of. That Lebanon is mentioned is "where's our next fight?"

I think there are mainly northeastern-based Democratic moderates (the group of voters that on this issue Josh Gottheimer represents) that on this issue are solidly Republican in character when it comes to Israel. Not saying they'll necessarily be driven to vote for Trump - be more a leave the presidential race blank or don't vote protest - but I think the "enthusiasm for Biden" factor in general is a weakness of his campaign and it doesn't need more stuff added onto it. (Disclaimer: I'm not voting for either of them.)

This war and the Ukraine War I have a sneaking suspicion one of them either ceasefire shortly after November 5th (Biden win) or January 21st (Trump win) next year a la the Iranian Hostage Crisis. It's impossible to remove American domestic politics as part of the driving concerns in either conflict. Israel/Gaza though is more likely than Russia/Ukraine due to the Israel/Gaza conflict is one-sided in nature. This war by Israel has destroyed in my opinion the United States' rules-based order they champion globally because our hypocrisy has been exposed of we wouldn't be fine with this conflict being conducted the exact same if it was done by a country not our close ally, and I think part of the Israeli calculations here clearly is they're just going to do as much as they can get away with as long as they have American cover. Why the hell else are they considering going to Lebanon other than to prolong this? And Biden has allowed himself to get played here by Netanyahu, in part because an election is in 5 months (the American domestic politics mentioned earlier, also why I think Israel ends the war unilaterally post-election because they will have lost their leverage, if Biden wins he has no future reelection concern to worry about and can be honest with Netanyahu without having to worry about it hurting him electorally) and also because Netanyahu knows enough Democrats support Israel here unconditionally they combined with the Republicans would overturn anything the Biden administration attempts to do to limit the conflict.

If it weren't for the Ukraine War and everyone in the West being on board with Russia must lose we'd be in a much worse position geopolitically on this, but I do think the post-Cold War world is dead, gone, and buried, and we're in a new geopolitical era. Reason 1 is Ukraine and Reason 2 is Gaza (minor shoutout to the Nagorno-Karabakh wars and some other non-war geopolitical items that have occurred that would've been not kosher almost all of the past 35 years). There's going to be a de facto annexation of sections of Gaza by Israel a la the Golan Heights whose purpose is to be a defense buffer.

[Albany Rifles]

I think there are mainly northeastern-based Democratic moderates (the group of voters that on this issue Josh Gottheimer represents) that on this issue are solidly Republican in character when it comes to Israel. Not saying they'll necessarily be driven to vote for Trump - be more a leave the presidential race blank or don't vote protest - but I think the "enthusiasm for Biden" factor in general is a weakness of his campaign and it doesn't need more stuff added onto it. (Disclaimer: I'm not voting for either of them.)

Well, speaking as an Northeastern-based Democrat, no matter how strongly we may feel on about Israel...and we have become less enamored these past 6 months by the excesses of the Israeli armed forces...that is nowhere enough to offset the assaults on women's rights, voting access, slaughter of school children at the altar of the 2nd Amendment & infrastructure improvements which are much more important issues to us.

Your overall premise that a continued war can hurt Biden....well, some. But that will be offset by the way the GQP is pushing away moderates and independent voters. We shall see.

On another note, the US pier is back in operation today. And to be clear...this structure was not intended nor designed to operate in the open see at its current length. It is intended to build a short causeway to allow vessels to offload. There are additional components which can be added which make it more permanent, but I believe a) they are in reserve component units & b) are earmarked for operations in the Pacific Area of Operations. Keep in mind the US Mulberry harbor off of Omaha Beach was wrecked overnight in a storm...and that was much more robust and had over a year to design & plan.

U.S. military's stop-start Gaza pier to resume operations, officials say | Reuters

U.S. military's stop-start Gaza pier to resume operations, officials say

By Reuters
June 19, 20247:32 PM EDTUpdated 15 hours ago





A satellite image shows a closer view of U.S. military-run humanitarian aid pier in Gaza before its removal, June 12, 2024. Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS/

WASHINGTON, June 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. military's on-again, off-again floating pier in Gaza is expected to resume operations on Thursday to unload sorely needed humanitarian aid for Palestinians, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the pier had been re-attached to the shore on Wednesday after being temporarily removed last Friday due to poor sea conditions.
Aid began arriving via the U.S.-built pier on May 17, and the U.N. said it transported 137 trucks of aid to warehouses, some 900 metric tons.

But then rough seas damaged the pier, forcing repairs, and poor weather and security considerations have limited the number of days it has been operational.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced in March the plan to put the pier in place for aid deliveries as famine loomed in Gaza, a Hamas-run enclave of 2.3 million people, during the war between Israel and the Palestinian militants.

The U.S. military estimates the pier will cost more than $200 million for the first 90 days and involve about 1,000 service members.

It is unclear how much longer it will be operational.
Speaking at the Pentagon on Tuesday, spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder declined to say when the military might halt its pier operations altogether. He said the pier has so far allowed for a total of over 3,500 metric tons of aid to reach Gaza's shores.
"With the caveat that this has always been intended to be a temporary pier, I'm not aware at this point of any established date of: 'This is when we're going to stop,'" he told reporters.
"And again, taking a step back here, the big picture: Whether it be by land, sea or air, (the United States is) employing all avenues to get assistance into Gaza."

[rj1]

On another note, the US pier is back in operation today. And to be clear...this structure was not intended nor designed to operate in the open see at its current length. It is intended to build a short causeway to allow vessels to offload. There are additional components which can be added which make it more permanent, but I believe a) they are in reserve component units & b) are earmarked for operations in the Pacific Area of Operations. Keep in mind the US Mulberry harbor off of Omaha Beach was wrecked overnight in a storm...and that was much more robust and had over a year to design & plan.

I am a mechanical design engineer.

WHY THE HELL DID WE INSTALL A SYSTEM THAT WAS NOT INTENDED NOR DESIGNED TO OPERATE IN THE OPEN SEA AT ITS CURRENT LENGTH?

[Officer of Engineers]

I am a mechanical design engineer.

WHY THE HELL DID WE INSTALL A SYSTEM THAT WAS NOT INTENDED NOR DESIGNED TO OPERATE IN THE OPEN SEA AT ITS CURRENT LENGTH?

Because it would be attacked and need replacing ASAP. The enemy has a say on how long it would operate and you need to include how much effort you're going to waste vs how much use you're going to get out of it.

[Albany Rifles]

I am a mechanical design engineer.

WHY THE HELL DID WE INSTALL A SYSTEM THAT WAS NOT INTENDED NOR DESIGNED TO OPERATE IN THE OPEN SEA AT ITS CURRENT LENGTH?

As with all things military....mission expediency. It was what was available at the time. There are improved designs in the pipeline but haven't reached full program/funding stage yet. The Navy fairly recently dropped this mission and the US Army Transportation Corps has picked it up. It is a bit of back to the future as this was a common task during Vietnam but as we pivoted to the Cold War & Europe in the 1970s/80s, it returned to Navy/USMC and atrophied. At best it was section strapped to the side of an LST which could make a 100 foot causeway.

And the Colonel has also succinctly made the point we were unsure what Hamas would do so it had to be almost throw away.

Though I hate Donald Rumsfeld he was right...you go to war with the Army you have and not the Army you wish you had (though his failure was refusing to mobilize the reserve component which helped give us Abu Ghraib & others).

[rj1]

General or Admiral: "What are our options?"

Military Engineer: "Well we can build this temporary dock. We need to support humanitarian aid for a long period of time most likely but it won't be able to withstand conditions of the Mediterranean pretty long. It might last 2 weeks."

Admiral: "Best we can do and it will allow the administration to get some good headlines for a week. Go for it."

I don't respect that decision making and don't ask me to. It's just throwing sh*t at a wall and hoping for the best.

[Albany Rifles]

General or Admiral: "What are our options?"

Military Engineer: "Well we can build this temporary dock. We need to support humanitarian aid for a long period of time most likely but it won't be able to withstand conditions of the Mediterranean pretty long. It might last 2 weeks."

Admiral: "Best we can do and it will allow the administration to get some good headlines for a week. Go for it."

I don't respect that decision making and don't ask me to. It's just throwing sh*t at a wall and hoping for the best.

It was providing a solution...albeit not the greatest....to a problem. You do the best you can.

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't respect that decision making and don't ask me to.

No one is asking you to. It's a take it or leave it position.

It's just throwing sh*t at a wall and hoping for the best.

492 metric tonnes of supplies were delivered. That ain't chump change. The port did its job.

[Gun Grape]

Because it would be attacked and need replacing ASAP. The enemy has a say on how long it would operate and you need to include how much effort you're going to waste vs how much use you're going to get out of it.

As part of an amphibous assault, if she last 24 hours it more than served its purpose.

Its old school tech, looking for a modern job. We are not/will not land LCACS in Gaza, fly supplies in with MV-22s/Ch-53s so this is the only option we have.

Not going to sink pylons and build a more stable/perminate structure.

That long stable pier will take months to design and a year to build. We need to deliver supplies now.

[Officer of Engineers]

Out of curiosity, GS, what's the force protection for this? For Canada, a pontoon bridge gets an ADATS battery.

[Albany Rifles]

Out of curiosity, GS, what's the force protection for this? For Canada, a pontoon bridge gets an ADATS battery.

A little dated but this mid-May article is saying 2 USN destroyers. And I suspect they are to provide air defense from both Hamas rockets and Houthi drones. The Houthis would love to impact events directly in the Med.

2 Navy Destroyers Will Help Protect Military's Gaza Aid Pier, Official Confirms | Military.com

[tbm3fan]

Ultra-Orthodox students must be drafted, Israel court rules

Israel’s Supreme Court has unanimously ruled in a landmark case that ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students must be drafted to the military.

There have long been exemptions for conscription for young men registered in full-time religious study, but a legal arrangement allowing the practice to continue had expired.

The move looks set to send shockwaves through Israel’s governing coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, parties.

A waiver from conscription for ultra-Orthodox men had become a more pressing social issue because of the strain on the armed forces caused by the ongoing fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

"In the midst of a gruelling war, the burden of inequality is harsher than ever and demands a solution," the top justices said.

The Israeli military is often described as “the People’s Army” with most Israelis, apart from Israeli Arabs, required by law to serve in it.

The ruling of the country’s highest court referred to the fact that large numbers of soldiers had recently been killed while fighting for their country, saying: "Discrimination regarding the most precious thing of all - life itself - is of the worst kind."

A non-profit group that was one of the main petitioners to the court, the Movement for Quality Government in Israel, welcomed the ruling, describing it as “an historic victory”, and called for immediate action to recruit Jewish seminary, or yeshiva, students.

Data seen by the court suggested some 63,000 ultra-Orthodox men in full-time Torah study have been covered by the waiver. The ruling means that they now potentially face the draft.

The court also ruled that there should be a freeze in public funding for yeshivas whose students evade conscription.

A lawyer who represented a yeshiva association before the court, Shmuel Horowitz, told the BBC that he “was not surprised by the decision but disappointed”, adding: “The courts are not the appropriate forum to solve these kinds of social issues.”

Asked about the likely response from the ultra-Orthodox community, he noted that “they adhere to their rabbis and don’t care much for court”.

He suggested that there was still time for the Israeli parliament to come up with a solution that would make the court ruling obsolete before it goes on recess at the end of July.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government relies for its survival on two ultra-Orthodox parties which view conscription exemptions as a top political priority - Shas and United Torah Judaism.

They believe that keeping their constituents in Torah study is a way of protecting the people of Israel and maintaining their conservative customs.

Shas leader Aryeh Deri issued a defiant statement in response to the ruling.

“There is no power in the world that can cut off the people of Israel from studying the Torah and anyone who has tried this in the past has failed miserably,” he said.

Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, the leader of United Torah Judaism, also vowed that “the Holy Torah will prevail”...

cont: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnee42vmn7xo

Probably won't hear too much in US but I would imagine the shit is going to hit the fan in Israel although the Court got it right seeing as how the ultra-orthodox want Arabs gone while their percentage of the population is increasing yearly.

[Albany Rifles]

The cost of buy in a society with universal service. An outsized political impact on their country and vindication for those Israelis who are secular, Christian or Muslim.