2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[Amled]

Israel is losing the propaganda war!
A fact that’s obvious to anyone who watches the news. If the terrorist attack October seventh or the eventual fates of the hostages are mentioned at all, it’s usually as a small segment followed by the inevitable…but!
Where we are inundated with a Gaza in ruins, people digging in the ruins, ambulances, streams of refugees etc.etc…
But what does Israel have to answer with?
Home videos shot by the terrorists depicting their atrocities? Audio intercepts with bragging describing same? Old news!!!
Besides it would run counter to the views held by too many people the world over!
Anyone see the similarity to Vietnam?
Where the US won the battles, but ended up losing the war!!!

[Monash]

Israel is losing the propaganda war!
A fact that’s obvious to anyone who watches the news. If the terrorist attack October seventh or the eventual fates of the hostages are mentioned at all, it’s usually as a small segment followed by the inevitable…but!
Where we are inundated with a Gaza in ruins, people digging in the ruins, ambulances, streams of refugees etc.etc…
But what does Israel have to answer with?
Home videos shot by the terrorists depicting their atrocities? Audio intercepts with bragging describing same? Old news!!!
Besides it would run counter to the views held by too many people the world over!
Anyone see the similarity to Vietnam?
Where the US won the battles, but ended up losing the war!!!

Sorry I don't think the Vietnam analogy quite holds. That war was lost largely due to the fact it had become increasingly unpopular back home in the US. For better or worse and for the time being at least the war in Gaza still has majority support amongst Israelis. In terms of keeping the war going that's what matters, at least for now. It's the rest of the world where opposition to the continued offensive is building.

This means that for the time being at least the Israeli government can afford to ignore the protests and that's what Netanyahu is going to do. He's desperately trying to come off as the 'strong man' because most Israelis are blaming him for letting the Hamas attack succeed in the first place. Netanyahu was already highly unpopular and struggling to stay in office before the attack. Now? The IDFs offensive is probably the only thing keeping him there and once the shooting stops and Israel arbitrarily declares 'victory' he's still going to have to face the political repercussions of that failure. In the longer term yes, it will absolutely become harder and harder for the Israeli Government (and the Governments of it's allies) to ignore global political pressure to end the offensive but IMO that point is some way off yet.

I see it as a race by Israel to complete its military objectives before that pressure becomes too great to ignore. Sadly that also means it's also in Hamas's interest to prolong the fighting as long as it possibly can in order to gain even more sympathy and hopefully support for it's cause. It's military arm will be destroyed in the process of course along with most of the strip itself and thousands more Palestinian civilians will die but hey, I guess that's just the price you have to pay for 'destroying' the Jewish State.

And then of course the wheels on the bus will go round and round.

[Amled]

Sorry I don't think the Vietnam analogy quite holds. That war was lost largely due to the fact it had become increasingly unpopular back home in the US. For better or worse and for the time being at least the war in Gaza still has majority support amongst Israelis. In terms of keeping the war going that's what matters, at least for now. It's the rest of the world where opposition to the continued offensive is building.

This means that for the time being at least the Israeli government can afford to ignore the protests and that's what Netanyahu is going to do. He's desperately trying to come off as the 'strong man' because most Israelis are blaming him for letting the Hamas attack succeed in the first place. Netanyahu was already highly unpopular and struggling to stay in office before the attack. Now? The IDFs offensive is probably the only thing keeping him there and once the shooting stops and Israel arbitrarily declares 'victory' he's still going to have to face the political repercussions of that failure. In the longer term yes, it will absolutely become harder and harder for the Israeli Government (and the Governments of it's allies) to ignore global political pressure to end the offensive but IMO that point is some way off yet.

I see it as a race by Israel to complete its military objectives before that pressure becomes too great to ignore. Sadly that also means it's also in Hamas's interest to prolong the fighting as long as it possibly can in order to gain even more sympathy and hopefully support for it's cause. It's military arm will be destroyed in the process of course along with most of the strip itself and thousands more Palestinian civilians will die but hey, I guess that's just the price you have to pay for 'destroying' the Jewish State.

And then of course the wheels on the bus will go round and round.

Sorry about being a bit unclear! With the battles-war analog I under no circumstances meant that Israel was heading towards a Stop the War movement!!!
It was meant to be along the part of your post that I’ve highlighted. That outside pressure might force the Israelis to accept a cease-fire that doesn’t; at least, include release of all the hostages.
Such a scenario could; IMO, be taken as having won the battles and losing the war!
Hamas would certainly see it as such! As would such players as Hezbollah and Iran, who would undoubtedly interpret it; rightly or wrongly, as a sign of weakness.

[Bigfella]

Israel is losing the propaganda war!
A fact that’s obvious to anyone who watches the news. If the terrorist attack October seventh or the eventual fates of the hostages are mentioned at all, it’s usually as a small segment followed by the inevitable…but!
Where we are inundated with a Gaza in ruins, people digging in the ruins, ambulances, streams of refugees etc.etc…
But what does Israel have to answer with?
Home videos shot by the terrorists depicting their atrocities? Audio intercepts with bragging describing same? Old news!!!
Besides it would run counter to the views held by too many people the world over!
Anyone see the similarity to Vietnam?
Where the US won the battles, but ended up losing the war!!!

I don't really want to divert the thread, but you are very much on the wrong track here. Media coverage of the Vietnam War was my major area of study for my Postgraduate degree and I got part way through a PhD on it, so I'm VERY familiar with it. This situation is not remotely comparable, and I'm close to 100% sure you don't really understand what happened in Vietnam anyway (the US lost EVERY battle it fought simply by having to fight them. Every body bag & serious wound was a loss. If you don't understand the relevant metrics you can't understand the outcome).

Israel is not really involved in the 'propaganda war' you are discussing. What is relevant here to internal Israeli politics is how quickly some sort of conclusion is reached & how much it costs. For now everyone who matters (ie. not Israeli Arabs) is on side. If this drags on for 6 months and costs hundreds more Israeli lives things might change, but we are a long way off that. As for wider issues - this won't go on long enough for that to matter. Israel can count on firm US support in all the ways that matter for the forseeable future. The rest is detail for now. The UN will vote to condemn, the EU will tut tut and be ineffectual, the Muslim world will scream and yell and be ineffectual.

There will be all manner of reckonings when Israel finishes what it is doing and I'm sure some of those will be unexpected, but for now the 'propaganda war' you are seeing is minimally relevant at best. Lots of sound and fury that doesn't signify very much.

[Bigfella]

Yes, That’s what I’ve been comparing it to. I’m just taken back by it still. Feels like this is more social media driven though.

For someone who generally shows solid insight you really seem to have missed out here.

Palestine has been a big issue on campuses since before the internet existed. It was in the late 80s when I was a student, there was no email and mobile phones were the size of a brick. The sense that Palestineans have been/are being unfairly treated is generations old and will likely be around until they get a state, and probably beyond that. While it is undoubtedly a very selective reading of events, it also has plenty of factual justification. Far from being some big 'gotcha' contradiction it is entirely consistent with supporting other groups who are seen as being unfairly treated, such as LGBTQI people. That Palestineans themselves are unsympathetic to such causes really isn't relevant. Very few people manage the sort of consistency implied in such criticisms.

The 'Hanoi Jane' stuff is wildly off the mark. Those protests were against a war being waged by their own government. These are against a foreign government. It isn't in the same ballpark when it comes to the implications. Yes, those kids are protesting US government policy too, but that isn't remotely the same as protesing a war your nation is waging with all the implications that has. Personally I think many of the ideological & factual underpinnings for their view of the role of the US in the world are badly misguided, but anyone looking for evidence that the US is willing to support some very nasty regimes/activities when it suits aren't going to have trouble finding evidence.

Disagree by all means, but with a bit less incredulity. They aren't as removed from reality or morality as you seem to imply. Personally I'm not very sympathetic to any side in this, so I can see a range of arguments. As I put it to a friend: Israelis are c**ts, Palestineans are dumb c**ts. Always back the smart c**ts.

[tbm3fan]

Israelis are c**ts, Palestineans are dumb c**ts. Always back the smart c**ts.

Talk about distilling wisdom down to fit into a nut shell...

[Bigfella]

Talk about distilling wisdom down to fit into a nut shell...

I have my moments.

[Ironduke]

As I put it to a friend: Israelis are c**ts, Palestineans are dumb c**ts. Always back the smart c**ts.

Not that you implied it or anything, but I don't think Netanyahu can be qualified as "smart". While culpability for the 1400 murders lies squarely with Hamas, responsibility for the security lapses that permitted them to carried out lies squarely with Netanyahu. Hamas should have never been able to pull that off. The fact that they were able to is entirely Netanyahu's fault. He's in for a political reckoning, and I think whatever legacy he might have had is in ruins, history will not look kindly on him.

[Albany Rifles]

Talk about distilling wisdom down to fit into a nut shell...

A regular philosopher is our Pete!

[Albany Rifles]

Not that you implied it or anything, but I don't think Netanyahu can be qualified as "smart". While culpability for the 1400 murders lies squarely with Hamas, responsibility for the security lapses that permitted them to carried out lies squarely with Netanyahu. Hamas should have never been able to pull that off. The fact that they were able to is entirely Netanyahu's fault. He's in for a political reckoning, and I think whatever legacy he might have had is in ruins, history will not look kindly on him.

Exactly. His career should be in tatters after this.

[Monash]

Not that you implied it or anything, but I don't think Netanyahu can be qualified as "smart". While culpability for the 1400 murders lies squarely with Hamas, responsibility for the security lapses that permitted them to carried out lies squarely with Netanyahu. Hamas should have never been able to pull that off. The fact that they were able to is entirely Netanyahu's fault. He's in for a political reckoning, and I think whatever legacy he might have had is in ruins, history will not look kindly on him.

Yep! You can argue, I suppose that its not the security services fault for failing to detect the build up inside Gaza prior to the attack. Yes, there would be have been noise about 'attacks' and lots of ongoing training by the militants but then there always is, and will be. The hard part intel wise would have been putting all the pieces together to show a large push might be imminent. On top of that the Israeli informant network inside Gaza seems to have let them down badly as well which to me seems to indicate it hasn't really penetrated Hamas very deeply at all, more likely mostly just the general population. You also have to give some cudos for careful preparation and tight opsec to the murdering bastards who planned the whole op.

What surprised me however was the apparent ease of the break in. Where the hell were the f'ing electronic surveillance and physical security elements? (Guard troops and quick reaction forces.) A perimeter defense system like that in a military theater like that should have been much better prepared to respond to a mass assault than it apparently was. Even worse, once the terrorists were in? It seems to have taken hours for the Israeli army to get it's boots on and shoelaces tied! Where was the permanently manned CCC center for the wall with a senior ranking officer on duty at all times who had the authority to mobilize additional resources intermediately?

So when this disaster is all over and the dust settles yes I'm sure heads are going to roll and I wouldn't put any money on Netanyahu's not being one of them.

[Bigfella]

Not that you implied it or anything, but I don't think Netanyahu can be qualified as "smart". While culpability for the 1400 murders lies squarely with Hamas, responsibility for the security lapses that permitted them to carried out lies squarely with Netanyahu. Hamas should have never been able to pull that off. The fact that they were able to is entirely Netanyahu's fault. He's in for a political reckoning, and I think whatever legacy he might have had is in ruins, history will not look kindly on him.

OK, so first, yes, I was talking in a broader sense. If there has been a mistake to make or a wrong decision to take the Palestineans will unerringly find them. As Michael Collins could have told them, sometimes you take a shit deal because it is the best deal you will get.

On Netanyahu I partly disagree. He has been one of the most successful national level politicians in the democratic world for almost three decades. Not only has he managed to stay on top of a highly fractious and unpredictable political system despite blatant corruption, he has successfully helped to shift the terms of the discussion on fundamental issues such as the Palestinean question. When he started out as PM the presence of ongoing negotiations defined the issue and there was a powerful 'peace' element in Israeli politics. A combination of the moronic intransigence of Abbas & the PA and Netanyahu's political skills helped to destroy the 'peace' faction and essentially kill negotiations. Israel is currently going the full Nixon on a bunch of civillians and there is barely a squeak of disagreement. By the standards of ANY Palestinean leader & their goals Netanyahu has been spectacularly successful and very 'smart'.

Taking his eye off the ball the way he has was Palestinean level dumb - hubris is a bitch. History was always going to be unkind to him because he is a corrupt, authoritarian right winger and his obsession with holding power overrode good policy. This will obviously make him look even worse, as it should, but he has been very successful in remaking Israel. Whatever deal the Palestineans eke out from some future government will be considerably worse than any of the live options when he first became PM. Not entirely his doing, but a success for his politics and vision of Israel.

[667medic]

I just want to put my 2 cents here and I am not a military expert considering that I was just a lowly Sergeant in the Medical Corp in SAF.
No one is invincible, not even USA as seen from 9/11. Hell a ragtag force like Houthis blew up a Reaper drone yesterday. So in spite of the vaunted reputation of Israel, they are expected to screw up and will screw up in the future as seen from history, the current shitstorm happened exactly 50 years after Yom Kippur war. Granted that even during Yom Kippur, Israelis did find out about the attack but it was too late and were also worried about launching preemptive strikes like they did in 67. Kissinger mentioned after the war that Israelis wouldn't have even received an iron nail as resupply if they had conducted preemptive attack.

In the Hamas attack, it looks like they were training to conduct an attack and it was only a question of when. Based on news reports, Hamas militants met twice weekly for drills and it involved close friends and family members. These drills were usually conducted early morning so much so that these guys would miss morning prayers. On Oct 7, a message was passed by word of mouth that these guys were to assemble with their weapons and ammo for similar drills at pre-set points in Gaza. Except that instead of drills they were distributed more ammo and heavy weapons like RPG and explosives. They were also distributed written instructions with maps identifying targets.

Regarding the goal and outcome of Hamas, there are conflicting reports. I have seen reports that the written instructions clearly mentioned to kill everything and grab hostages. But there are other reports where Hamas leaders said that their targets were military only. The civilians were collateral damage. Hamas was also surprised by the ease with which they managed to breach obstacles and enter settlements, so much so that they made multiple trips back and forth between Gaza and settlements.

Something that complicates the hostage rescue is the involvement of non-Hamas operatives. After the initial breach of the Gaza wall, civilians and other militants like the Islamic Jihad joined the melee that rushed to the settlements to loot, kill and rape. Islamic Jihad is more violent than Hamas and supposedly weren't kept in the loop. Many inciudents of rape and beheading has been blamed on these folks. These folks also took a lot of civilian hostages, which complicated negotiations.

Regarding timing of attack, it was a no-brainer that something was cooking considering the impending return of Trump next year and all the deal making between Israel and Arab states. Iran was getting squeezed. In one stroke, all the diplomatic work is in tatters. The biggest question is why it took the IDF so long to respond, where was the QRF and units on Stand 2 mobilization?

[Versus]

This one will escalate and quite rapidly.

[Officer of Engineers]

Regarding the goal and outcome of Hamas, there are conflicting reports. I have seen reports that the written instructions clearly mentioned to kill everything and grab hostages. But there are other reports where Hamas leaders said that their targets were military only. The civilians were collateral damage. Hamas was also surprised by the ease with which they managed to breach obstacles and enter settlements, so much so that they made multiple trips back and forth between Gaza and settlements.

...
Regarding timing of attack, it was a no-brainer that something was cooking considering the impending return of Trump next year and all the deal making between Israel and Arab states. Iran was getting squeezed. In one stroke, all the diplomatic work is in tatters. The biggest question is why it took the IDF so long to respond, where was the QRF and units on Stand 2 mobilization?

It was well planned, co-ordinated, and over whelming. 3000 militants made the attack in coy sized operations. That's 30 OPOBJs that overwhemed the limited Israeli QRFs. Which attack out of 30 will you respond to because the QRF (battalion size) cannot respond to all 30. Decision paralysis was obviously part of the HAMAS planning. In such a case, QRF's position is to hold, eval, determine, then to commit.