2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[Monash]

But is there actually a serious difference of opinion about how to prosecute the war in Gaza between Netanyahu and the opposition? It doesn't appear so at the moment. They do have a unity government right now. Bennett was quick to react and oppose attempts at "external intervention" in Israeli internal affairs.

At this point the Labor party seems to be waiting it out. There's literally no upside at all for them in outright opposing the war per se. After all if they had been in government when Hamas struck they'd have been compelled by popular outrage to take action and launch an assault of some kind on the Gaza Strip themselves! Nor is there much, if any upside to refusing to form a unity government in a time of national crisis. No, they'll be waiting for Netanyahu to make a critical mistake or failing that for the hostilities to end so they can take a scalpel to the manifest failings of his government that let the attack succeed in the first place.

[Firestorm]

But is there actually a serious difference of opinion about how to prosecute the war in Gaza between Netanyahu and the opposition? It doesn't appear so at the moment. They do have a unity government right now. Bennett was quick to react and oppose attempts at "external intervention" in Israeli internal affairs.

[Albany Rifles]

Netanyahu was is trouble as Monash says. And he had a NARROW majority bubble gummed together. And as he has said he is terrified of what the after action review behind the 7 OCT attacks will uncover, Part of the reason it is widely believed for the intel failures leading to Hamas's successes on 7 OCT is because Shin Bet and others were looking more internally at the opposition especially with the wide scale street protests and other disturbances going on.

He may avoid the results with a total win over Hamas (which is doubtful) but he and Israel will lose more in the international community.

[rj1]

I don't know about 'regime change' but most Western Politicians seem to be 'over' him, not to mention a large percentage (possibly even a majority) of Israelis. Before the latest war even started Netanyahu was on the nose politically and was looking to be defeated at the next election. On top of that he was and still is desperate to evade corruption charges which would be laid the moment he left office. So what happens next? The IDF and security services completely drop the ball re; detecting and preventing the Hamas raid on Israel, on his watch!

IMO the main reason he's pressing offensive operations so hard isn't so much military necessity as it is political necessity. He's desperate to recover some degree of domestic popularity, totally reliant on the support of conservative Jewish religious parties in the Knesset to stay in office in the interim and potentially looking down the barrel of some serious jail time when he leaves office!

Kind of reminds me of someone else's situation in some other country someplace.

The guy has a democratic mandate via his supporters controlling a majority of the Knesset. Gantz coming here against his government’s wishes as a "private citizen" technically to meet our leaders is ridiculous enough. What is this, the 19th century? The U.S. being involved in the government losing power and an election potentially getting called mid-conflict strikes me as a risky endeavor and horrid precedent although us involving ourselves in foreign politics happened routinely in the past, having it happen in an ally is not really kosher. If it happens, it's going to be out there the Americans pushed this along.

This is pretty bizarre if true for what it says about 21st-century international affairs. Do we really want foreign countries gaming our Congress this way?

One Israeli expert frequently consulted by American officials says, “I have been asked by a serious administration figure what it is that will force the Netanyahu coalition to collapse. They were interested in the mechanics, what can we demand which will collapse his coalition.”

[Monash]

American plans to kinda sorta instigate regime change in Israel. Biden per the NY Mag article has been done with Netanyahu for at least a month.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/arti...netanyahu.html

I don't know about 'regime change' but most Western Politicians seem to be 'over' him, not to mention a large percentage (possibly even a majority) of Israelis. Before the latest war even started Netanyahu was on the nose politically and was looking to be defeated at the next election. On top of that he was and still is desperate to evade corruption charges which would be laid the moment he left office. So what happens next? The IDF and security services completely drop the ball re; detecting and preventing the Hamas raid on Israel, on his watch!

IMO the main reason he's pressing offensive operations so hard isn't so much military necessity as it is political necessity. He's desperate to recover some degree of domestic popularity, totally reliant on the support of conservative Jewish religious parties in the Knesset to stay in office in the interim and potentially looking down the barrel of some serious jail time when he leaves office!

Kind of reminds me of someone else's situation in some other country someplace.

[rj1]

American plans to kinda sorta instigate regime change in Israel. Biden per the NY Mag article has been done with Netanyahu for at least a month.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/arti...netanyahu.html

[InExile]

It might. Ifthe 1.1% of the U.S. population who are Muslim could or would vote in lockstep. For a start all those under the age of 18 can't vote. And then even if all of thoseover the age of 18 were actually engaged enough in the conflict to vote accordingly? A not significant percentage of that group would not actually be practicing Muslims and hence night bot be so eager to get engage as you surmise.

It follows then that the numbers may not be as clear cut as you suspect. Especially given the fact the Biden Administration has been seen to be putting significant and hereto unprecedented pressure on the Israeli's to delay/abort any further offensives and lift the blockade in humanitarian relief supplies. In the end? Even if they want to vote? The only alternative is Donald Trump and the Republicans. How many Muslim voters do you think that package is appealing to, all things considered?

Michigan has a somewhat larger muslim population than average (2-3%). Biden carried the state by a little over a 100,000 votes last time. Given that Biden is losing other groups of support, if even 30000-40000 muslims who voted for him in 2020 sit out this election, or vote for a third party, that could be enough to tip the state

[Monash]

Revisiting an earlier point of discussion in this thread, after 4 months of an unrelenting assault on Gaza and near unconditional support of Israel by the Biden administration, it is clear that this has cost Biden a significant amount of support among muslim Americans and young voters. So much so, that this article makes the case that the greatest threat to Biden in this year's election is not a challenge from the centrist no labels, but a defection of voters from the left which might be decisive in a critical swing state like Michigan which has a relatively large muslim population and which Biden carried by about just 2% of the vote in 2020. With Arizona and Georgia leaning back in the Republican column, a loss in Michigan would probably almost certainly mean defeat for Biden in 2024.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...peril-00139380

If the Democrats do lose in 2024 primarily due to the Israel - Gaza war, that might change the political calculations for a future Democrat President regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It might. If the 1.1% of the U.S. population who are Muslim could or would vote in lockstep. For a start there are those under the age of 18 can't vote. And then even if all of those over the age of 18 were actually engaged enough in the conflict to vote accordingly? A not significant percentage of that group would not actually be practicing Muslims and hence night bot be so eager to get engage as you surmise.

I just think the numbers may not be as clear cut as you suspect. Especially given the fact the Biden Administration has been seen to be putting significant and hereto unprecedented pressure on the Israeli's to delay/abort any further offensives and lift the blockade in humanitarian relief supplies. In the end? Even if they want to vote? The only alternative is Donald Trump and the Republicans. How many Muslim voters do you think that package is appealing to, all things considered?

[InExile]

Revisiting an earlier point of discussion in this thread, after 4 months of an unrelenting assault on Gaza and near unconditional support of Israel by the Biden administration, it is clear that this has cost Biden a significant amount of support among muslim Americans and young voters. So much so, that this article makes the case that the greatest threat to Biden in this year's election is not a challenge from the centrist no labels, but a defection of voters from the left which might be decisive in a critical swing state like Michigan which has a relatively large muslim population and which Biden carried by about just 2% of the vote in 2020. With Arizona and Georgia leaning back in the Republican column, a loss in Michigan would probably almost certainly mean defeat for Biden in 2024.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...peril-00139380

If the Democrats do lose in 2024 primarily due to the Israel - Gaza war, that might change the political calculations for a future Democrat President regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

[Albany Rifles]

This is why the Red Sea task is so difficult...

[Albany Rifles]

Posted yesterday in the wrong thread



Well it looks like the Marines may have our first Ace in awhile!


https://www.twz.com/air/marine-corps...-drones-report


Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier Pilot Downed Seven Drones: Report

The U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B pilot reportedly made the kills while helping to blunt the Houthi’s relentless drone attacks.
BY THOMAS NEWDICK|UPDATED FEB 12, 2024 1:34 PM ESTAI




Marine Corps AV-8B pilot Capt. Earl Ehrhart receives signals during flight operations aboard amphibious assault ship USS Bataan (LHD-5), December 26, 2023. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Matthew Romonoyske-Bean

In an interview with the BBC, Marine Corps AV-8B pilot Capt. Earl Ehrhart said that he had shot down seven Houthi drones. Ehrhart serves with Marine Attack Squadron 231 (VMA-231), the “Ace of Spades,” currently aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan (LHD-5). Since late December, USS Bataan has been operating in the Mediterranean, but as of October, when the Houthi campaign began, in the wake of Israel’s war in Gaza, the warship was operating in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf areas. It is not entirely clear where Ehrhart assembled his tally.

“I never imagined I was going to be doing this when we launched,” Ehrhart told the BBC, reflecting that, as of early October, the squadron, part of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable), was expecting to complete its latest deployment, which began last August.


An AV-8B armed with a live AIM-9L/M Sidewinder missile aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan on December 26, 2023. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Matthew Romonoyske-Bean


“The Houthis were launching a lot of suicide attack drones,” Ehrhart said, describing the Yemen-based militants as “a robust and capable force.”

Ehrhart’s account suggests that aerial combat against any kind of opposition was not necessarily expected by VMA-231.

“We took a Harrier jet and modified it for air defense,” Ehrhart added. “We loaded it up with missiles and that way were able to respond to their drone attacks.”

The types of missiles used were not revealed.



Armed with a live AMRAAM missile, plus a Litening pod, an AV-8B takes off from USS Bataan during flight operations, on December 26, 2023. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Matthew Romonoyske-Bean

However, the Marine Corps AV-8B can be armed with examples of both the radar-guided AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) and the heat-seeking AIM-9L/M Sidewinder. The aircraft can also be fitted with a GAU-12 25mm gun pod, which could potentially also be used in air-to-air engagements.


Photos released by the Pentagon of AV-8s aboard USS Bataan in recent months also confirm the aircraft are carrying LITENING targeting pods. These can also play an important role in the air-to-air realm, with the ability to slave the pod to the jet’s radar or other sensors for very long-range visual identification of targets, day or night. You can read more about this critical capability here.

However, the same BBC article indicates that at least some drone interceptions were carried out at a range close enough for their explosive payload to potentially damage the aircraft hunting them down.


An AV-8B loaded with AIM-9M and AIM-120B captive training rounds prepares for a sortie. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Cody Rowe
The risks involved in finding and shooting down much slower-flying drones are something that we have heard about before, including from the war in Ukraine, in which similar Iranian-designed one-way attack drones have been widely used.



According to Ehrhart’s account, it seems that the USS Bataan held one or more AV-8s at high readiness to launch against incoming drone (and likely also anti-ship cruise missile) threats. Targeting information seems to have been provided primarily by a U.S. Navy destroyer in the region, using its Aegis combat system, which you can read all about here.


An AIM-9M Sidewinder is loaded onto an AV-8B during flight operations aboard USS Bataan, on December 26, 2023. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Matthew Romonoyske-Bean
Ehrhart continued: “The command room will say: ‘The Houthis have launched a one-way attack drone. We have this amount of time.’ Then we can step down from a two-hour response time, all the way down to a five-minute response.”

While the apparent use of the AV-8 to counter Houthi drones would have been driven primarily by its availability in the region, it’s worth noting that the aircraft has a highly relevant, if often overlooked air-to-air capability.

In its radar-equipped AV-8B+ form, the aircraft uses the AN/APG-65 radar that was ported over second-hand from F/A-18A/B Hornets. Since then, it’s been subject to some upgrades and, combined with AMRAAM, provides a robust beyond-visual-range air-to-air capability as part of its multirole repertoire.


An AV-8B aboard USS Makin Island is seen with its AN/APG-65 radar pulled forward and exposed. U.S. Marine Corps
We know from the Royal Saudi Air Force’s experience confronting Houthi drones that the AMRAAM is the preferred weapon.

With a limited thermal signature, the drones can’t always be reliably downed using a Sidewinder. In the past, a former U.S. Air Force F-15 pilot explained to The War Zone that while an AMRAAM is not the only option in this type of engagement “it may be best, depending on the target size and engine type.”

Another former Air Force Eagle pilot added: “By not putting out enough of an infrared signature, you might not get a tone before going inside the minimum range, rendering the AIM-9 useless. Apparently, the drones have enough of a radar signature to enable a target lock before hitting the AMRAAM’s minimum range…”

A Saudi F-15 shoots down a low-flying Houthi drone:


On the other hand, flying over the sea might also make it easier for the Sidewinder’s seeker to acquire a target even with a lower infrared signature.

Gun kills against small aerial targets are generally judged to be tricky to achieve without a good deal of practice and it’s unclear if the pilots involved would have trained for aerial gunnery in any capacity. They can also be dangerous with the possibility of running into such a small target.


One former Harrier pilot told The War Zone: “Guns would be possible but tricky — very tricky — but fun too.”

The unique performance of the AV-8 might also make it an especially useful platform for targeting slower-moving threats. As we have explained in the past, the Harrier’s four thrust-vectoring nozzles, combined with reaction control vanes and augmented aerodynamic control, provide the pilot with some remarkable slow-speed flying qualities that could be useful in engagements with slow-flying drones.

While we don’t know the exact types of drones claimed destroyed, the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 that has been used by the Houthis (and by Russia) reportedly has a top speed of only around 115 miles per hour.

An AV-8B with Marine Attack Squadron 214 launched an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile over Florida skies for the first time operationally, on August 14, 2012. U.S. Marine Corps
The AV-8 may lack the performance of the Super Hornet, but it is nonetheless able to range far ahead of naval assets and offer them an additional degree of protection or to take off and respond to potential threats. The ability of crewed aircraft to investigate a potential threat is also a significant advantage of the AV-8, over a surface-to-air missile system. This kind of flexibility is especially useful in a complex battlespace like the one found today in the Red Sea.

As well as defending against Houthi threats in the air, the report states that the USS Bataan has also taken part in retaliatory airstrikes, which have targeted militant groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Houthis in Yemen.

That would indicate that AV-8s launched from USS Bataan while it was in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it arrived on December 28, via the Suez Canal, to form part of an Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) there.


An aviation ordnanceman assigned to the USS Bataan stands small caliber arms team watch while the warship pulls into Larnaca, Cyprus, on February 11, 2024. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Riley Gasdia

The War Zone has reached out to the Marine Corps for more details about both air-to-air and air-to-ground actions by the AV-8s aboard USS Bataan.

The Harrier is in the twilight of its career with the USMC. It will be entirely pulled from service by 2027. We have discussed in great detail the past how the aircraft's unique talents, especially in the air-to-air and short-takeoff and landing realms, could still be of high use, especially to Taiwan. Upgraded with an AN/APG-79V4 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar now found on the USMC's legacy Hornets, and the Harrier could defend large swathes of airspace from highly austere locales, without relying on huge vulnerable runways. This could also be of great use in the Pacific. But as of now, this won't be the case.


As far as the shooting down of Houthi drones is concerned, the fighting in the Middle East since October 7 has seen the Israeli Air Force claim victories, as well as the U.S. Navy and, apparently, the Air Force. The Royal Saudi Air Force may well also have racked up further drone kills. Now, it seems that the U.S. Marine Corps can be added to the list.


With few signs that the Houthis are scaling back their attacks on maritime targets, it seems certain there will be the opportunity for further aerial engagements against drones and anti-ship cruise missiles in the region. But for the Harrier, it's latest achievement serves as a reminder that the Marines' 'jump jet' will be going out at the top of its game.

[Monash]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/hamas-a...ikes-1.6765566

Two Israeli hostages rescued!
Purely coincidentally at the same time this is announced, Hamas announces that three of the Israeli hostages in their keeping,
has died of wounds received in an Israeli air attack!
Easily verified if Hamas would turn over the remains!

Great! There we were something like what, 200 captives taken? At this rate? Israel will be fighting to recapture the rest of them out into the next century!

[Amled]

Hamas armed wing says three Israeli hostages killed in Israeli airstrikes

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/hamas-a...ikes-1.6765566

Two Israeli hostages rescued!
Purely coincidentally at the same time this is announced, Hamas announces that three of the Israeli hostages in their keeping,
has died of wounds received in an Israeli air attack!
Easily verified if Hamas would turn over the remains!

[rj1]

Of course not, but I do see some irony in the Israeli's slowly over time crowding the Palestinians in to increasingly crowded and impoverished ghettos while some elements of the Israeli population call for their mass expulsion if not extermination. I keep having flashbacks to some half remembered historical event.

It's bugging me I can't remembers what it was.

I always thought the biggest FU the Palestinians could ever do to the Israelis was withdraw their claims to a separate state, announce that Gaza and the West Bank are part of Israel, they're all now Israeli citizens, and come next election make certain every single Palestinian adult voted. Israeli politics operate on above a small threshold you get x percent of the vote you get x percent of seats, and the Palestinians have a much higher birth rate.

[rj1]

Of course not, but I do see some irony in the Israeli's slowly over time crowding the Palestinians in to increasingly crowded and impoverished ghettos while some elements of the Israeli population call for their mass expulsion if not extermination. I keep having flashbacks to some half remembered historical event.

It's bugging me I can't remembers what it was.

I always thought the biggest FU the Palestinians could ever do to the Israelis was withdraw their claims to a separate state, announce that Gaza and the West Bank are part of Israel, they're all now Israeli citizens, and come next election make certain every single Palestinian voted. Israeli politics operate on above a small threshold you get x percent of the vote you get x percent of seats.

If Israel tried to stop Palestinians giving them full citizenship rights and ability to vote in elections it would then become a South African apartheid situation.