Venezuela votes to annex part of Guyana

[Bigfella]

Last week Venezuela voted to annex part of Guyana. While there is no reason to beleive this vote was remotely democratic, it is clearly indicative of some level of intent on the part of Maduro & his governing clique. It is far from clear precisely what he plans to do. Venezuela dwarfs Guyana in population & military resources, and while the territory involved would be hellishly hard to invade & occupy, logistics would be a bigger issue than likely resistance at this point. The region in question (or the offshore part of it at least) is oil rich - Maduro has already proposed offering licenses to extract those resources.

No one appears to be very pleased about this. The US has offered support to Guyana:

The United States says it is fully backing Guyana against Venezuela’s threat to annex its oil-rich western territory as tensions soar over their border dispute.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s position that Guyana has full sovereignty over its 159,500sq km (61,600sq-mile) Essequibo region, in a call with Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali late on Wednesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...torial-dispute

Brazil seems unhappy & has moved tgroops to Venezuela's border. This is bad for Maduro, as Brazil's current leader has previously been somewhat sympathetic to Venezuela:

The measures are cause for concern across the region. While Guyana has its troops on high alert, the Brazilian army has said that it is moving more soldiers to the border city of Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima state, as well as bringing in more armed vehicles.

However any military incursion by Venezuela will be logistically challenging, Venezuelan soldiers would need to pass through Brazilian territory if they enter Essequibo because of challenging terrain elsewhere.

According to AFP news agency, Brazil's army has said it is reinforcing its presence in the region as part of efforts to "guarantee the inviolability of the territory".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018

The Organization of American States (OAS) is also unhappy. Whatever its members might think of each other, the ydo not like the idea of nations unilaterally changing borders. Also not fans of Venezuela generally:

Reaffirming the legitimacy and binding nature of the 1899 boundary established by an international Arbitration Committee, reinforced by ongoing International Court of Justice (ICJ) proceedings, the OAS condemns Venezuela’s unlawful actions against Guyana. The Maduro regime’s pursuit of an illegal and illegitimate referendum on December 3, 2023, seeking to annex the Essequibo region, disregards international law and defies ICJ decisions, employing undemocratic means within a democratic process, the OAS statement outlined.

The General Secretariat highlighted Venezuela’s series of aggressive actions, including intimidation tactics and disregard for recent ICJ decisions, evident in its intervention in defense, nationality, administration, and economics—direct violations of another state’s jurisdiction and territorial integrity.

https://oilnow.gy/featured/oas-raise...uncil-meeting/

So, what next? A direct invasion seems unlikely, though that doesn't mean it won't happen. Maduro is facing an election next year and he has given committments it will be free & fair (yes, I know he is unlikely to follow that, but it is still a risk). The fact that the oil is largely offshore means that naval power is relevant. Venezuela can probably grab at least some oil platforms more or less unopposed, but it can't keep control of the maritime zone if there is any significant opposition. It is not difficult to imagine a US-led multinational force patrolling that maritime border, which would rapidly end any Venezuelan ambitions.

Another stupid mess caused by a failing dictatorship.

[Monash]

Perun did a video on this issue today. Like most observers he doesn't rate the probability of a full scale invasion by Venezuela as being very high and noted that if it did happen it would almost certainly end badly for Maduro and the country. That said his last PowerPoint slide did note that you should never underestimate the power of 'Stupid' when it comes to political leaders under stress.

[Bigfella]

Perun did a video on this issue today. Like most observers he doesn't rate the probability of a full scale invasion by Venezuela as being very high and noted that it would almost certainly end badly for Maduro and the country his last PowerPoint slide did note that you should never underestimate the power of 'Stupid' when it comes to political leaders under stress.

Yes, that video led me to check if there was already a thread on this and start one when thre wasn't. Chatting with a Chilean co-worker about this next week. She wasn't a fan of Maduro already, this hasn't made her like him any more. One guaranteed way to piss of damned near everyone in the OAS is to start unilaterally deciding to change borders. Even notionally friendly nations (aside from Russia) won't defend this. Venezuela is already short of friends, so this feels super desperate.

I will be interested to see if India gets involved here. Not sending forces, but weapons, training etc. Over 40% of Guyana's population are ethnic Indian - comfortably the largest ethnic group. There aren't a lot of nations outside India with a majority or plurality Indian population, so this might be an opportunit yfor India to spread its wings a bit. India is looking to boost its arms industries, a newly cashed up Guyana might provide an opportunity. Do a sweetheart deal involving prices & military advisors. The Yanks & Brits will be happy with that and it raises India's global profile in a fairly positive way. Modi should grasp the opportunity.

Realistically anyone able to supply stuff like small naval craft, air defence, anti-tank weapons, missiles of various types and even decent small arms might find a fairly motivated buyer in Guyana. Brazil is probably a more obvious supplier given proximity, though clearly the US & other NATO nations are an option, if an expensive one. Given the terrain a small but well trained, motivated & appropriately armed force could make life hell for any land force while a disproportionate price could be imposed on naval & air forces. Of course, this is years away it it happens, which Maduro knows. Is he desperate enough to attempt to get in first?

[Monash]

If he's really serious about it he knows he's on the clock. He also also knows he'll piss off in no particular order the US, UK, India, China, Brazil, Malaysia and several other nations with a vested interest in Guyana's continued success. According to Perun this is one case where even the US and China are more or less on the same page since oil companies from both nations have signed up to a joint investment project in major sections of the oil leases.

As for the longer term? I was thinking Guyana could call in the Brits for advice re: hiring and training a battalion or so worth of Gurkhas for jungle warfare duties as a way to bolster their army's overall numbers. I'd love to see what the Venezuelans would do then.

[Bigfella]

If he's really serious about it he knows he's on the clock the thing is he also knows he'll piss off in no particular order the US, UK, India, China, Brazil, Malaysia and several other nations with a vested interest in Guyana's continued success. According to Perun this is one case where even the US and China are more or less on the same page since oil companies from both nations have signed up to a joint investment project in major sections of the oil leases.

As for the longer term I was thinking Guyana could call in the Brits for advice re: hiring and training a few battalions worth of Gurkhas for jungle warfare duties as a way to bolster their army's overall numbers. I'd love to see what the Venezuelans would do then.

Maduro wants a parade, not a fight. If he thinks there is the slightest chance of serious resistance he won't invade. Not sure the conscripts & army politically appointed officers who have gotten fat & happy under Chavez & Maduro will be enthusiastic about facing well trained troops, let alone Gurkas hiding in Amazonian rainforest. The stuff of nightmares.

[Monash]

Maduro wants a parade, not a fight. If he thinks there is the slightest chance of serious resistance he won't invade. Not sure the conscripts & army politically appointed officers who have gotten fat & happy under Chavez & Maduro will be enthusiastic about facing well trained troops, let alone Gurkas hiding in Amazonian rainforest. The stuff of nightmares.

Yep as Perun noted there are no roads on the Guyanan side of the border worthy of the name so any large scale land invasion by Venezuela requires they;

a) Invade via Brazilian territory which has relatively good road links with both countries (what could go wrong)
b) Use air lift to supply and sustain an invasion force of several thousand men (which they don't have)
c) Try schlepping everything they need to sustain that invasion force into Guyana on mules or by foot! (good luck).

That leaves a seaborne invasion and while on paper they have some sea lift capability its not nearly enough to sustain an invasion force of any size and probably isn't fit for purpose anyway.

[Officer of Engineers]

The typical border war in South America involves 100s of men, not 1000s. A single platoon is enough to establish control if the Guyanans can't mount a response. Of course, that doesn't give Maduro anywhere near the territory he claims, just some minor border outpost.

[Monash]

The typical border war in South America involves 100s of men, not 1000s. A single platoon is enough to establish control if the Guyanans can't mount a response. Of course, that doesn't give Maduro anywhere near the territory he claims, just some minor border outpost.

Even if he did just stick his toe over the border and raise a flag it wouldn't help. All the key oil resources are located offshore and stretch south east along the coast of Guyana all the way to the border with Suriname. From maps the current Venezuelan border with Guyana barely touches any of the fields - if it touches any at all! So to lay claim to a significant chunk of Guyana's oil wealth Maduro would have to push his army forward at least halfway along the coast towards the Essequibo River. And if he was silly enough to try that ? Then then he he still faces the logistical problems I mentioned earlier. And that's before someone decides to intervene on Guyana's behalf.

The only wild card is the 'stupid factor' Perun mentioned i.e. just how desperate is Maduro to cling to power. IMO? He has to realize he has a much better (and easier) chance of holding on to power by just trying to steal the next election or establishing marshal law than he does by trying to invade Guyana. Of course if he wants to be really popular at home he could always just resign but for some reason I don't see that option being on the cards.

[Officer of Engineers]

You're misunderstanding the scope of these wars. These are wars of capture the flag. You put 100 men in those fields, you own those fields. Look to our own history where platoon houses control entire ranges and company officers commanding (Major rank) were effectively area governors. A RRF was a brick (4 men), at best a section (12 men). Until the Guyanans can muster a battalion, a real bn (at least 300 men), not the Burmese type (47 men), level response (and that's hard to do, even within their own territories).

This does not reduce Maduro's difficulty any. He can't move 100 men, let alone 11,000, into those fields but it does bring the conflict back to a realistic concept. Both Venezuela and Guyana would be hard press to control those fields militarily with Guyana having an easier, but not that much easier, route. Guyana will win any such fight but it will be a hard fight between midget powers.

[tbm3fan]

So Maduro has drawn up a map out of thin blue air much like China did for the South China Seas. Maybe we could draw up a map incorporating Canada. Maduro also said he would grant the Guyanese citizenship in Venezuela. Maybe we could grant the Canadians citizenship in the United States.

Oh well a pipe dream but if we could buy out OOE who knows. Maybe grant him his own little Duchy?

[Officer of Engineers]

And live in the same country as Celine Dion? Forget that!

[tbm3fan]

I believe a Duchy would be your own private country. No Celine and no Justine. Think of it...

[Officer of Engineers]

Something about free travel between States ...

[Monash]

You're misunderstanding the scope of these wars. These are wars of capture the flag. You put 100 men in those fields, you own those fields. Look to our own history where platoon houses control entire ranges and company officers commanding (Major rank) were effectively area governors. A RRF was a brick (4 men), at best a section (12 men). Until the Guyanans can muster a battalion, a real bn (at least 300 men), not the Burmese type (47 men), level response (and that's hard to do, even within their own territories).

This does not reduce Maduro's difficulty any. He can't move 100 men, let alone 11,000, into those fields but it does bring the conflict back to a realistic concept. Both Venezuela and Guyana would be hard press to control those fields militarily with Guyana having an easier, but not that much easier, route. Guyana will win any such fight but it will be a hard fight between midget powers.

My point was directed at where he'd have to place those troops not how many he'd have to use.

If Maduro was really serious about expropriating at least part of Guyana's oil fields (quasi legally) he has to control a relatively long/narrow strip of coastline opposite that section of the fields he wants to control. Just dropping 10 men from a helicopter on the coast somewhere 100 miles or so inside Guyana and raising a flag won't cut the mustard because Guyana can simply return the compliment and drop it's own small units along the shore between that detachment and the Venezuelan border proper. If that happens hey presto - national sovereignty reinstated while 10 lonely Venezuelan soldiers sit on a beach wondering how their supposed to get home.

Sending out warships to stake a claim wont work either because they would not be operating inside Venezuela's internationally recognized maritime borders. He needs at least a narrow strip of land on the coast to claim sovereignty over a portion of the oil fields. Guyana could literally gift Maduro all of its territory east of the Essequibo River save for that all important coastal strip and Venezuela still wouldn't have a legal claim to any oil rights.

[Officer of Engineers]

If Maduro was really serious about expropriating at least part of Guyana's oil fields (quasi legally) he has to control a relatively long/narrow strip of coastline opposite that section of the fields he wants to control. Just dropping 10 men from a helicopter on the coast somewhere 100 miles or so inside Guyana and raising a flag won't cut the mustard because Guyana can simply return the compliment and drop it's own small units along the shore between that detachment and the Venezuelan border proper. If that happens hey presto - national sovereignty reinstated while 10 lonely Venezuelan soldiers sit on a beach wondering how their supposed to get home.

The simple answer to that is Maduro sends 100 men to decide the fate of those 10 Guyanans. The Guyanans have chosen the battle field.

And that's the point. Both sides would be stretched to the breaking point just to send 100 men to a decisive battle. Venezuela and Guyana need 3000 engineers each to build the roads to the deciding action, not 3000 MPs to guard a non-existing LOC. The usual axiom goes. He who gets there firstest with the mostest wins, only the mostest in this case is measured in the 10s, 100 at the most.